Miami Mayor Francis Suarez discussed the lack of federal guidance for regions seeing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases on Thursday, as local officials work to manage a second spike in the city's virus outbreak.

Miami's GOP Mayor Says Trump Admin Gave No Guidance for Coronavirus 'Second Spike'

Researchers question whether a mutated viral strain that infected more cells in a lab dish is necessarily more transmissible among humans

Second Coronavirus Strain May Be More Infectious—but Some Scientists Are Skeptical

Charity says monthly interactions rise from 30 to 1,000 and flag a coming ‘storm’

Number of UK problem gamblers seeking help soars in lockdown

10.31235/osf.io/4bu3q

In low income and lower-middle income countries, data from civil registration systems do not allow monitoring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rapid mobile phone surveys aimed at measuring mortality trends on a monthly basis are a realistic and safe option for filling that data gap. The data generated by mobile phone surveys can play a key role in better targeting areas or population groups most affected by the pandemic. They can also help monitor the impact of interventions and programs, and rapidly identify what works in mitigating the impact of COVID-19.

Measuring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low- and lower-middle income countries: the need for mobile phone surveys

10.31235/osf.io/wr9jb

This study offers an overview on changes in fertility plan during the COVID-19 crisis of a representative sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK. Data were collected between March 27 and April 7, 2020. Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child during the 2020. In Italy, instead, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in other countries, while comparatively it shows a lower proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans. Moreover, the demographic characteristics of the individuals seem to be associated with fertility plans in different ways across countries. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by the COVID-19. In UK, fertility plans have been most frequently abandoned by individuals that expect the worse impact of the crisis on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we did not observe a clear pattern for revision of fertility plans. These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, due to the different economic, demographic and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts, in particular, appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

10.31235/osf.io/8duvx

The health crisis of the COVID-19 outbreak has global impacts on humanity and the economy. Such pandemic effects also influence human behaviour; issues of panic buying (overbuying) and noncompliance with government orders and law among individuals are evident. However, the underlying understanding of such behaviours due to the pandemic remains unclear. Therefore, this perspective paper adopts the social dilemma theory and microeconomics concepts to analyse and explain the effects of COVID-19 on social behavioural reactions. It attempts to address the questions of what and why are the behaviours of individuals shown during the coronavirus pandemic and showcase how the theory is associated with the current social phenomena. Real scenarios based on media reporting from the sociodemographic context of Malaysia, concerning the following issues; (i) competition over daily essentials; (ii) self-honesty of individuals; and (iii) adherence to government policies and measures enforcement (governance) were discussed. A conceptual framework was developed to illustrate interrelationships between social dilemma concepts and the phenomena. In essence, due to fear, uncertainty, and greed, self-interest and opportunistic (defective/unethical) behaviours of most individuals prevailing over societal collective interest amid the pandemic have been prevalently observed in the above instances, although a cooperative choice can eventually result in a better outcome for everyone. Not only do these non-cooperative behaviours of individuals create inconveniences, dissatisfactions, and other forms of negative externalities, they also incentivise others to act selfishly, if no restrictions are imposed, which may eventually cause government intervention failures. This paper demonstrates the relevancy of the social dilemmas theory in better understanding fundamental human behavioural reactions amid the health crisis and the importance of incorporating the findings into government policymaking. These sociopsychological considerations help the government formulate holistic measures, namely stringent sanctions and monitoring enforcement, as well as incentivising cooperative and compliant behaviours of the public, which then contribute to curbing the COVID-19 pandemic more effectively.

Effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic on Social Behaviours: From a Social Dilemma Perspective

This is the sixth in a series of ten factsheets based on an ongoing online panel survey of a representative sample of the UK population. The survey was designed by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford to collect data on how people navigate news and information during the coronavirus pandemic and was fielded by YouGov. Ten waves will be fielded at two-week intervals, top-line findings from each will be published soon after in a factsheet, with more in-depth analysis to follow. More details about the project and the methodology can be found on the project website. The survey is a mix of tracking questions and specific questions fielded only in some waves.

Social media very widely used, use for news and information about COVID-19 declining

arXiv:2007.01583

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks, and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the "small-world" effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by "flattening" the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.

COVID-19 lockdown induces structural changes in mobility networks -- Implication for mitigating disease dynamics

Current surge that has mostly infected the young now shows signs of reaching more-vulnerable elderly

Covid-19 Cases Jump in Sunbelt Nursing Homes

Four charts show how pooling samples from many people can save time or resources.

The mathematical strategy that could transform coronavirus testing

Current Covid-19 cases among Florida long-term care residents jumped to 1,868, the most since the pandemic began.

Covid-19 Cases Hit Record at Florida Long-Term Care Centers

Tracking how people move around urban areas can pinpoint where disease might transmit fastest and farthest.

Cities — try to predict superspreading hotspots for COVID-19

arXiv:2007.04381

We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and identified male sex, age >70 years, cardiovascular comorbidities, and infection early in the epidemics as risk factors for death.

Infection fatality ratio of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, face coverings and masks have become ubiquitous in some Asian countries, but the UK public has generally been more reluctant to adopt them. Now the law is about to change.

What are face covering rules in England and why did the policy change?

Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and coresidence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries’ populations to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to COVID-related deaths in general. The coresidence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries’ vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of COVID-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational coresidence, are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational coresidence, such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and intergenerational households, such as Bangladesh.

10.1073/pnas.2008764117

National age and coresidence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability

This is a study of the effect of hydroxychloroquine as treatment of hospitalised patients with Covid-19. The endpoint was virus presence in nasopharyngeal swabs after six days. Consenting patients received hydroxycholoroquine, and in some cases azithromycin. A control group consisted of patients who were either from another centre, or declined this treatment. The reported results are that of twenty patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine, 14 had negative swabs at day 6, as compared with two of 16 controls. The effect was stronger in those also receiving azithromycin, where six out of six had negative swabs at day 6. The authors conclude that hydroxychloroquine is efficient in clearing viral nasopharyngeal carriage of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients in only three to six days, which is reinforced in those also using azithromycin.As outlined below, this study suffers from major methodological shortcomings which make it nearly if not completely uninformative. Hence, the tone of the report, in presenting this as evidence of an effect of hydroxychloroquine and even recommending its use, is not only unfounded, but, given the desperate demand for a treatment for Covid-19, coupled with the potentially serious side-effects of hydroxychloroquine, fully irresponsible.

10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949

Review of: “Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial Gautret et al 2010,

10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01786

Challenges and Opportunities for Human Behavior Research in the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic

The narrative persists, but supporting evidence is weak at best.

All These Stories About People Fleeing Cities Are Total Nonsense

Airborne transmission would mean there are certain solutions we really need to focus on.

If the coronavirus is really airborne, we might be fighting it the wrong way

A particularly “challenging” winter could bring a second wave of coronavirus infections that leads to around 120,000 deaths in UK hospitals, twice as many as the first wave, according to an estimate of a reasonable worst-case scenario.

A bad UK winter could cause 120,000 hospital deaths linked to covid-19

COVID-19 has emerged as a multi-system disease with diverse clinical outcomes. But its complexity transcends the sophisticated biological machinery of the virus that causes it. COVID-19 has exposed fragile health systems, inept governments, and rivalry between nations, and led to the worst economic crisis in recent memory. It has hindered access to health care for the most vulnerable, and amplified health inequalities.

10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30243-6

COVID-19 and Racism—a double edged dagger

President Donald Trump participates in an event with students, teachers and administrators about how to safely re-open schools during the novel coronavirus pandemic at the White House on July 07, 2020

Trump Boosts False Conspiracy Theory That Doctors And CDC Are ‘Lying’ About COVID

We flattened the curve, but there are worrying signs that infections could surge again

A Rush to Reopen Could Undo New Yorkers’ Hard Work against COVID-19

10.1177/0956797620939054

Across two studies with more than 1,700 U.S. adults recruited online, we present evidence that people share false claims about COVID-19 partly because they simply fail to think sufficiently about whether or not the content is accurate when deciding what to share. In Study 1, participants were far worse at discerning between true and false content when deciding what they would share on social media relative to when they were asked directly about accuracy. Furthermore, greater cognitive reflection and science knowledge were associated with stronger discernment. In Study 2, we found that a simple accuracy reminder at the beginning of the study (i.e., judging the accuracy of a non-COVID-19-related headline) nearly tripled the level of truth discernment in participants’ subsequent sharing intentions. Our results, which mirror those found previously for political fake news, suggest that nudging people to think about accuracy is a simple way to improve choices about what to share on social media.

Fighting COVID-19 Misinformation on Social Media: Experimental Evidence for a Scalable Accuracy-Nudge Intervention

Noncompliance with social distancing during the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a great challenge to the public health system. These noncompliance behaviors partly reflect people’s concerns for the inherent costs of social distancing while discounting its public health benefits. We propose that this oversight may be associated with the limitation in one’s mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory (WM) for rational decision making that leads to social-distancing compliance. We tested this hypothesis in 850 United States residents during the first 2 wk following the presidential declaration of national emergency because of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that participants’ social-distancing compliance at this initial stage could be predicted by individual differences in WM capacity, partly due to increased awareness of benefits over costs of social distancing among higher WM capacity individuals. Critically, the unique contribution of WM capacity to the individual differences in social-distancing compliance could not be explained by other psychological and socioeconomic factors (e.g., moods, personality, education, and income levels). Furthermore, the critical role of WM capacity in social-distancing compliance can be generalized to the compliance with another set of rules for social interactions, namely the fairness norm, in Western cultures. Collectively, our data reveal contributions of a core cognitive process underlying social-distancing compliance during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting a potential cognitive venue for developing strategies to mitigate a public health crisis.

10.1073/pnas.2008868117

Working memory capacity predicts individual differences in social-distancing compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Fines of up to £100 could be handed out for non-compliance under measures to be announced on Tuesday

Coronavirus: shoppers in England must wear face masks from 24 July

Coronavirus damages not only the lungs, but the kidneys, liver, heart, brain and nervous system, skin and gastrointestinal tract, doctors said Friday in a review of reports about Covid-19 patients.

How coronavirus affects the entire body

Just before the holiday weekend, on the day that Donald Trump stood beneath Mount Rushmore and warned against “a merciless campaign to wipe out our history” and the day before his Washington, D.C., fireworks display generated air pollution 15 times the EPA standard and roughly equivalent to the choking megacities of India and China, the state of Arizona reached a terrible pandemic milestone.

America Is Refusing to Learn How to Fight the Coronavirus

After months of denying the importance of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the World Health Organization is reconsidering its stance​

Mounting Evidence Suggests Coronavirus Is Airborne—but Health Advice Has Not Caught Up

Some employers are giving workers extra benefits in an attempt to encourage them to take time off

'We Heard Birds.' Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo on How Lockdown Offered a Glimpse at a Greener City

Researchers saw a third fewer vehicle collisions with deer, elk, moose and other large mammals in the four weeks following COVID-19 shutdowns in three states they tracked.

Animals Appreciate Recent Traffic Lull

Thousands staged a sit-down rally in Belgrade on Thursday to object to any reimposition of coronavirus curbs and to voice opposition to the government, an even-tempered protest that contrasted sharply with riots in the past two days.

Serbia drops plans for reimposed lockdown after days of violent protests

10.1038/s41586-020-2521-4

COVID-19 has rapidly affected mortality worldwide1. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, requiring new approaches for timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England, here we created OpenSAFELY: a secure health analytics platform covering 40% of all patients in England, holding patient data within the existing data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19-related deaths. COVID-19-related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio (HR) 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53–1.65); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared with people with white ethnicity, Black and South Asian people were at higher risk even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48, 1.30–1.69 and 1.44, 1.32–1.58, respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for COVID-19-related death in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. OpenSAFELY is rapidly adding further patients’ records; we will update and extend results regularly.

OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19 death in 17 million patients

The number of Republicans who say they’re leaving the house to socialize has a hit a new high since the coronavirus pandemic began, according to new survey data, even as more Democrats are opting to stay home.

Number of Republicans Who Say They’re Socializing Amid Pandemic Rises Even as More Democrats Stay Home: Survey

Psychiatrists are observing similar emotions in others who have lost loved ones to covid-19 (see “Stories of loss,” below). They warn that the unique challenges of coming to terms with these deaths could lead to a rise in a condition known as prolonged grief disorder.

Grief over covid-19 deaths may be unusually severe and long-lasting

10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002790

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic presents significant challenges for higher education and clinical training, normally based on face-to-face interaction, and an opportunity to improve international cooperation.We propose three strategies to ensure that, when we emerge from this crisis, global cooperation in higher education and research is the norm: move to online, digital learning; enhanced networks with institutions from the Global South; and a reformed funding and reward structure.Tackling global issues collaboratively, starting with COVID-19, we will be so much better placed to solve the many issues, known and unknown, that our planet will undoubtedly face in decades to come, including the next pandemic.

COVID-19: an opportunity to rethink global cooperation in higher education and research

United Airlines is warning 36,000 employees — nearly half its U.S. staff — they could be furloughed in October, the clearest signal yet of how deeply the virus pandemic is hurting the airline industry.

https://apnews.com/b8ec22960abe7615cba23c07f577baefClick to copyRelated topicsAP Top NewsTravelGeneral NewsChanging economyAirlinesVirus OutbreakBusinessLayoffsTravelU.S. NewsUnited Airlines warns 36,000 workers they could be laid off

In Houston, one of the nation's fastest-growing coronavirus hot spots, more residents are dying before they can make it to a hospital. Medical examiner data shows that an increasing number of these deaths are the result of COVID-19.

An increase in people dying at home suggests coronavirus deaths in Houston may be higher than reported

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after she refused to manipulate coronavirus data at the Florida Health Department. Now she has launched her own COVID-19 data portal for the state.

Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own

SARS-CoV-2 was detected in Barcelona sewage long before the declaration of the first COVID-19 case, indicating that the infection was present in the population before the first imported case was reported. Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater would enable adoption of immediate measures in the event of future COVID-19 waves.

Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases

Working from home has environmental and social benefits. Offices are still needed for innovation, collaboration, learning and networking though. Smaller, local offices could reduce commuting and promote more inclusive workplaces. This productivity opportunity would then provide economic benefits as well.

The post-pandemic future for city centre office space

This may be true, but showing a correlation between the number of excess deaths and the time of lockdown is not enough evidence to argue this point, as the FT did.

The limits of what we can say about early lockdowns

In a gigantic feat of scientific ambition, researchers have designed a staggering 1,200 clinical trials aimed at testing treatment and prevention strategies against Covid-19 since the start of January. But a new STAT analysis shows the effort has been marked by disorder and disorganization, with huge financial resources wasted.

Data show panic and disorganization dominate the study of Covid-19 drugs

A World Health Organization–led global trial of treatments for COVID-19 was slow to enroll coronavirus-infected people, like this one in a Spanish intensive care unit, whereas a large trial in the United Kingdom quickly produced results for three treatments.

One U.K. trial is transforming COVID-19 treatment. Why haven’t others delivered more results?

The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic

Covid-19 news: One in ten cases in England have been in health workers

t is time to stop dreading anxiety.

On Words: Why You Should Embrace ‘Anxiety,’ Even in the Era of Coronavirus

Coronavirus first spread in the United States as a mostly coastal and big-city scourge, sparing many rural areas, small towns and even small cities. Translated into U.S. political geography: The virus hit Democratic areas first.

Coronavirus’ spread in GOP territory, explained in 6 charts

Education and health and wellbeing are intrinsically linked. The evidence behind the importance of education as a determinant of health is amongst the most compelling.

10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30144-4

Education: a neglected social determinant of health