By honor, in its proper and genuine signification, we mean nothingclse but the good opinion of others, which is counted more or less sub-stantial the more or less noise or bustle there is made about the demon-stration of it. And when we sav the sovereign is the fountain of honor, itsignifies that he has the power, by titles or ceremonies, or both together, tostamp a mark upon whom he pleascs, that shall be as current as his coin,and procure the owner the good opinion of everybody, whether hedeserves it or not.

The replacement of multi-family domesticunits with nuclear households and the prohibition of polygamy hada significant impact, while the suppression of most native rites and theconcomitant introduction of Christian rituals restructured the basic con-tours of Indian existence

óbrega upheld the basic notion that the Indianshad to be dominated if Brazil was to prosper and that the only way to dealwith particularly resistant groups was through the prosecution of “justwars” in which the Europeans’ enemies would be reduced to slavery.

Tupi–Tapuia scheme

Strong expressions of this disposition emerged in native social movementsthroughout the sixteenth century, whether in messianism or armed resis-tance, some cases of which involved the participation of multiple villages,as in the case of the Confederation of the Tamoios (1555–1567), whichbrought together Tupinambá communities in a long-lasting armed move-ment that aimed to destroy Portuguese colonialism

I assert that in lawful defence of the innocent from unjustdeath, even without the pope's authority, the Spaniards may prohibit thebarbarians from practising any nefarious custom or rite

MY THIRD PROPOSITION is that if there are any things among the barbarianswhich are held in common both by their own people and by strangers, it isnot lawful for the barbarians to prohibit the Spaniards from sharing andenjoying them

MY FIRST CONCLUSION on this point will be that the Spaniards have the rightto travel and dwell in those countries, so long as they do no harm to thebarbarians, and cannot be prevented by them from doin

as the pagans and Jews are by no means to be compelled to believe

MY SECOND CONCLUSION is that the barbarians are not bound to believefrom the first moment that the Christian faith is announced to them, in thesense of committing a mortal sin merely by not believing a simpleannouncement, unaccompanied by miracles or any other kind of proofor persuasion, that the true religion is Christian, and that Christ is theSaviour and Redeemer of the universe

These madmen too may be true masters. For a madman too canbe the victim of an injustice (iniuria)\ therefore he can have legal rights

THE CONCLUSION of all this is that the barbarians are not impeded frombeing true masters, publicly and privately, either by mortal sin in generalor by the particular sin of unbelief. Nor can Christians use either ofthese arguments to support their title to dispossess the barbarians oftheir goods and lands, as Cajetan elegantly deduces

Hence the objection is a manifest error, like the preceding one, andheretical too.24 It is clear that it is not lawful to take away the posses-sions of Saracens, Jews, or other unbelievers on the grounds of theirunbelief per se\ to do so is theft or robbery, no less than it would be inthe case of Christian

Therefore it is not enough in conscience for a man to judge by himselfwhether his actions are good or bad. In cases of doubt he must rely onthe opinion of those authorized to resolve such doubts. It is not suffi-cient for businessmen merely to abstain from those contracts which theyknow to be illegal, if at the same time they continue to make contracts ofdubious legality without consulting the experts

From a purely economic standpoint, would it be rational to stop emitting CO2 in this case?

Assume B0 “ $1012 and T0 “ 0.5 K. If we are certain that ∆T2x “ 2 K, what is the benefit ofstopping emitting CO2?

he benefits of stopping emitting CO2 are the future damage that we avoid by doing so.Explain why the following formula is a plausible model for these benefits

et’s assume that the current cost of stopping emitting CO2 to the atmosphere (completelystopping CO2 emission) would be $10 trillion ($1013), which is roughly 10% of the amountof money made in the world per year. If the discount rate is 3%, how much is the equivalentcost 100 years from now?

Now assume that ∆T2x=8 K. How much warming would result from increasing the CO2 to2240 ppm? How does this compare to the PETM?

During the PETM the global-mean temperature was about 10 K higher than in preindustrialtimes. How does this compare to the temperature increase that going to a CO2 of 2240 ppmwould cause if ∆T2x=2 K?

If the climate sensitivity, ∆T2x, is 2 K, how many degrees warming would result from in-creasing the CO2 to 2240 ppm?

f we emit all the carbon we can, we probably can get the CO2 up to 2240 ppm. How manydoublings is this from the preindustrial value of 280 ppm?

Explain why an increase of global-mean surface temperature this high would likely be a bigproblem for humans

ow let’s assume that ∆T2x actually increases at the PETM so that p∆T2xqPET M “ 2p∆T2xqbe f .Find a formula for pCO2qbe f in terms of pCO2qPET M and pCO2qpre.

Based on the values of pCO2qbe f , pCO2qPET M, and ∆TPET M given above, what is the smallestvalue ∆T2x could take?

Based on the values of pCO2qbe f , pCO2qPET M, and ∆TPET M given above, what is the smallestvalue ∆T2x could take?

Still assuming that ∆T2x is constant, find a formula for ∆T2x as a function of pCO2qbe f ,pCO2qPET M, and ∆TPET M.

ased on the values of pCO2qpre, pCO2qbe f , and ∆Tbe f given above, what is the largest value∆T2x could take?

Based on the values of pCO2qpre, pCO2qbe f , and ∆Tbe f given above, what is the smallestvalue ∆T2x could take?

Let’s assume that ∆T2x is a constant for now. Find a formula for ∆T2x as a function ofpCO2qpre, pCO2qbe f , and ∆Tbe f

By about how much does the sea ice thickness decrease in the month when it is at its maxi-mum extent as CO2 is doubled?

By about how many degrees does the surface air temperature at the North Pole in Januaryincrease when the CO2 is doubled?

y roughly how many degrees is the North Pole surface air temperature warmer in July thanJanuary in the preindustrial climate?

What region of the planet warms the most (surface air temperature) in January when the CO2is doubled?

s there more warming in Chicago in the summer or winter as the CO2 is doubled?

By about how many degrees does the surface air temperature in Chicago in June increasewhen the CO2 is doubled?

By about how many degrees does the surface air temperature in Chicago in December in-crease when the CO2 is doubled?

By roughly how many degrees is the surface air temperature in Chicago warmer in June thanDecember in the preindustrial climate?

Summarize how we should expect Arctic sea ice to change as CO2 is doubled based on thisGCM simulation

y about how much does the sea ice thickness decrease in the month when it is at its mini-mum extent as CO2 is doubled?

Is there a significant change in the maximum sea ice extent as CO2 is doubled?

Is there a significant change in the minimum sea ice extent as CO2 is doubled?

n what month does Arctic sea ice fraction tend to reach a minimum extent (areal coverage)?

n what month does Arctic sea ice fraction tend to reach a maximum extent?

9. By about how many degrees does the surface air temperature at the North Pole in July in-

How does the warming in Chicago as the CO2 is doubled compare to the seasonal cycle intemperature in Chicago?

hat are the units of B?

What are the units of A? Let’suse the same units as in the plot from the notes for variables

Read two combinations of T and es offof the plot in the notes and solve for A and B

Write the solution for Ts in the one-layer model symbolically including this temperaturedependence.

variable i

ow suppose that as the emissivity increases from 0.7 to 0.8, a lot of the Arctic sea ice meltsand the albedo decreases from 0.6 to 0.3. What would the Arctic temperature be in this case?

Now let’s suppose the emissivity increases from 0.7 to 0.8 as a result of global warming. Ifnothing else changes, what is the new Arctic temperature?

The average insolation is1000 W m ́2. This is too high on purpose, to account for heat transport from lower latitudes.Let’s take the albedo to be 0.6 and the emissivity to be 0.7. What is the surface temperature?

Is the Ice-Albedo Feedback positive or negative?

If sea ice (which isoften covered in snow) melts, it is replaced by open ocean. What will this do to the albedoin the Arctic? What will this do to the amount of sunlight that the Arctic absorbs?

n what region of the Arctic has sea ice decreased the most?

n what region of the Arctic has sea ice been most stable?

ow does this compare to the land area of California (which you can Google)?

y about what area did the Arctic sea ice coverage decrease between 1980 and 2010?

What was the typical Arctic sea ice extent in September between 2005 and 2015?

What was the typical Arctic sea ice extent in September between 1975 and 1985

s the Arctic sea ice extent fairly constant from year to year, or does it bounce around a lot?

In section 3.5 we learned that water vapor is a very importantgreenhouse gas on Earth. In a certain sense it is the most important greenhouse gas, since itprovides most of the greenhouse warming on Earth.

Positive feedbacks cause a system to deviate far from where it was

If this is the case, then the tension will be damped out whenever itarises and they will have a stable relationship. Notice that in this example a positive perturbationto tension was decreased back to the stable state by the negative feedback.

Negative feedbacks regulate something. They damp out perturbations(deviations) from the typical state. Negative feedbacks are very common in nature as complexecological systems have ways to regulate themselves to keep them from deviating too far fromthe stable state

Breaking down the types of decisions your organization makes on aregular basis is a good way to begin. When I work with clients, I start bysorting decision making into three categories:• Corporate decisions include setting vision and direction for thecompany, appointing top leaders, defining company values andculture, and managing external reputation.• Strategic decisions include decisions about investments thecompany will make, which customers it will serve, capitalexpenditures, and setting corporate policies that all employees mustcomply with.• Operational decisions include budgeting, developing and launchingproducts, and managing talent.

In contrast to Americans,Japanese negotiators have been seen as more likely to use indirectcommunication and influence (e.g., sympathy, reference to status)while Brazilians more strongly favor collaboration, accommoda-tion, and avoidance, especially for negotiations with in-groupmembers

ountry-levelindividualism was positively correlated with loss aversion. Thisrelationship was also found at the individual level while control-ling for country-level effects, such that a person’s deviation fromher country’s mean individualism level was correlated with herloss aversion levels. This finding is consistent with Weber andHsee’s (2000) ‘‘cushion hypothesis.” They proposed that collectivistcultures support risk taking because one’s close social networkmembers can offer financial support in the event of setbacks.

sian over-confidence is all the more surprising given that the need to self-enhance appears to be absent or attenuated in East Asian cultures(Heine & Hamamura, 2007). In the Chinese case, research suggeststhat they think less probabilistically than the English do. Whenasked in an open-ended manner whether a certain event is goingto occur, Chinese participants were more likely than English partic-ipants to reply with words that do not acknowledge degrees ofuncertainty at all (e.g., ‘‘Yes” or No”) or with only a limited rangeof different probability phrases (e.g., ‘‘probably”)

First, exposure to othercultures influences creativity when the exposure is ‘‘deep” and pro-motes a challenge to one’s customary ways of thinking and behav-ing. Maddux and Galinsky (2009) found that the extent to whichindividuals adapt to– not merely live in – a foreign culture predictscreativity. Notably, some evidence suggests that cross-cultural expo-sure should be broad and deep in ‘‘moderation.” Cross-cultural expe-rience of fashion house directors has been found to be beneficial forthe perceived creativity of the house’s products (Godart, Maddux,Shipilov, & Galinsky, 2015), but only when the breadth and depthof the experience was not too extreme.

esearchers have sug-gested that individualistic cultures promote deviance,uniqueness, and divergent thinking, whereas collectivistic culturespromote conformity in thinking (Erez & Nouri, 2010). Goncalo andStaw (2006) found that, when instructed to be creative, subjectsexperimentally primed with individualism (vs. collectivism) gener-ated more creative solutions to a problem. They also found thatwhether groups were asked to list the most creative or the mostpractical idea from their idea sets, ideas listed by individualisticgroups were judged to be more creative than those of collectivistgroups – regardless of whether they were instructed to be creativeor practical

argue that Russians valueadvice because they are accustomed to living in a society whereofficial means of information exchange and social aid are unreli-able. Thus, in their case, collaboration is not driven by a collectivis-tic desire to please others but rather by a desire to disseminatehelpful information. In contrast to the Russian case, Savani et al.(2011) do not attribute advice giving and accommodation in Indiato the lack of a reliable informational infrastructure. Rather, theypropose that high population density and limited social mobilitylead to strong reputational concerns for individuals. These con-cerns, the authors contend, lead people to strive to be known assupportive and selfless in their advice giving so that they aretrusted and embraced in their social networks.

The finding that Koreans particularly valueintuition is consistent with evidence suggesting that Chinese prefersimpler decision modes than do Americans (e.g., lexicographicmodes, Chu & Spires, 2008; recognition-based decision making,Weber, Ames, & Blais, 2004). Altogether, it seems that among EastAsians, Japanese prefer thorough, slower decision modes whereasKoreans and Chinese prefer faster intuitive or rule-based modes

In sum, the above cultural differences plausibly may lead peopleto approach decision-making differently from the very beginning.Cultures vary in whether they focus on opportunities or threats,and they also vary in their interpretations of the same informationas a threat, an opportunity, or neither. Finally, people vary in howmuch they feel the need to engage in decision-making (or to callparticular actions ‘‘decisions”)

Before the decision-making process even begins, people fromdifferent cultures are attending to their environments in differentways. For example, focusing on positive versus negative informa-tion can reflect whether someone is oriented to approach opportu-nities or avoid threats (Higgins, 1997). Hamamura, Meijer, Heine,Kamaya, and Hori (2009) found that Canadians and Americansrecalled more positive information than negative information afterreading about hypothetical life events (Study 1) or product reviews(Studies 2, 3). Americans rated negative reviews to be less helpful(Study 3). Japanese participants showed either the reverse ten-dency (Study 1) or equal memory for approach and avoidanceinformation (Studies 2 and 3).

One dimension of culture that has received substantialattention is individualism-collectivism (or, similarly, independence-interdependence, Hofstede, 1980; Markus & Kitayama, 1991;Oyserman, Coon, & Kemmelmeier, 2002; Triandis, 2004). Thesedimensions are associated with different conceptualizations ofthe ‘‘self.” Individualistic cultures bestow greater autonomy onthe ‘‘self”; each person is understood to be a discrete entity, inde-pendent of others, with relatively immutable characteristics andwith free agency

‘‘culture” we refer to themyriad ways of living exhibited by a particular group of people, waysthat are transmitted from one generation to the next and whichdistinguish that group from others

Hubris surely had something to do with it. Hall had become so adept at running climbers of varying abilities up and downEverest that he may have become a little cocky.

In truth, their presence was a matter of grave concern to just about everyone on the mountain. The fear was that the Taiwanesewould suffer a calamity that would compel other expeditions to come to their aid, risking further lives and possibly costingclimbers a shot at the summit. Of course, the Taiwanese were by no means the only group that seemed egregiouslyunqualified. Camped beside us at Base Camp was a 25-year-old Norwegian climber named Petter Neby, who announced hisintention to make a solo ascent of the Southwest Face, an outrageously difficult route, despite the fact that his Himalayanexperience consisted of two easy ascents of neighboring Island Peak, a 20,270-foot bump

Both men were under considerable pressure this season. The previous year, Hall had for the first time failed to get anybody tothe top. Another dry spell would be very bad for business. Meanwhile Fischer, who had climbed the peak without oxygen buthad never guided the mountain, was still trying to get established in the Everest business.

Sadly, not every Everest lawsuit is unwarranted. Inept or disreputable companies have on more than one occasion failed todeliver crucial logistical support—oxygen, for instance—as promised. On some expeditions guides have gone to the summitwithout any of their clients, prompting the bitter clients to conclude that they were brought along simply to pick up the tab. In1995, the leader of one commercial expedition absconded with tens of thousands of dollars of his clients' money before the tripeven got off the ground

Nobody can speak for the leaders of the two guided groups involved, for both men are now dead. But I can attest that nothing Isaw early on the afternoon of May 10 suggested that a murderous storm was about to bear down on us. To my oxygen-depleted mind, the clouds drifting up the grand valley of ice known as the Western Cwm looked innocuous, wispy, insubstantial.Gleaming in the brilliant midday sun, they appeared no different than the harmless puffs of convection condensation that rosefrom the valley almost daily. As I began my descent, I was indeed anxious, but my concern had little to do with the weather. Acheck of the gauge on my oxygen tank had revealed that it was almost empty. I needed to get down, fast.

The need to choose often creates conflict: we are not sure how to trade off oneattribute relative to another or, for that matter, which attributes matter to usmost. It is a commonplace that we often attempt to resolve such conflict byseeking reasons for choosing one option over another.

e making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because ofuncertainty and conflict. We are usually uncertain about the exact consequences ofour actions, which may depend on the weather or the state of the economy, andwe often experience conflict about how much of one attribute (e.g., savings) totrade off in favor of another (e.g., leisure).

Given the shape of the value function, it is easyto derive the following principles of hedonic framing, that is, the way of evaluating joint outcomes tomaximize utility:(I) Segregate gains (because the gain function is concave).(2) Integrate losses (because the loss function is convex).(3) Integrate smaller losses with larger gains (to offset loss aversion).(4) Segregate small gains (silver linings) from larger losses (because the gain function is steepest at theorigin, the utility of a small gain can exceed the utility of slightly reducing a large loss)

Why are we more willing to drive across town to savemoney on a small purchase than a large one? Clearly there is some psychophysics at work here. Fivedollars seems like a significant saving on a $15 purchase, but not so on a $125 purchase. But thisdisparity implies that the utility of the saving must be associated with the differences in values ratherthan the value of the difference. That is, the utility of saving $5 on the purchase of the expensive itemmust be (v( -$125) -v( -$120) (or perhaps the ratio of these values) rather than v($5), otherwise therewould be no difference between the two versions of the problem.

The value function is defined over gains and losses relative to some reference point. The focus onchanges, rather than wealth levels as in expected utility theory, reflects the piecemeal nature ofmental accounting. Transactions are often evaluated one at a time, rather than in conjunction witheverything else

How do people perform mental accounting operations? Regular accounting consists of numerousrules and conventions that have been codified over the years. You can look them up in a textbook.Unfortunately, there is no equivalent source for the conventions of mental accounting; we can learnabout them only by observing behavior and inferring the rules

ental accounting is the set of cognitive operations used by individuals andhouseholds to organize, evaluate, and keep track of financial activities.

By how much would you have to decrease the albedo in order to increase the surface tem-perature by 3 K, starting from the emissivity and albedo you used to get Earth’s surfacetemperature?

Let’s assume that doubling the atmospheric CO2 causes the surface temperature to increaseby 3 K. How much do you have to increase the emissivity to get the surface temperature toincrease by 3 K?

Assuming an albedo of 0.3, what would the emissivity have to be to get the correct surfacetemperature for Earth?

Now redo the calculation assuming that Earth’s albedo is 0.3, which is roughly the correctvalue

he actual global mean temperature on Earth is about 15 ̋C. How does this compare to yourprevious estimate?

Let’s imagine Earth absorbs all of the radiation from the Sun that hits it (α “ 0) and has anatmosphere with no greenhouse effect (ε “ 0). What would it’s surface temperature be? UseS “ 1360 W m ́2 and σ “ 5.67 ˆ 10 ́8 W m ́2 K ́4.

rue or false: CO2 absorbs strongly in the infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum

What is the radiative flux emitted by HD 269810?

The star HD 269810 has an emission temperature of 52,500 K. What is the wavelength ofpeak emission for HD 269810?

Jupiter receives 13 W m ́2 of insolation from the Sun. It has an albedo of 0.50. How muchradiation does it reflect back to space?

Does the planet emit more radiation relative to the star at larger or smaller frequencies?

The wavelengths in the figure above correspond to what type of electromagnetic radiation

microwave oven emits electromagnetic radiation with a frequency of 2450 MHz. What isthe wavelength of this radiation? Hint: 1 MHz=106 s ́1

What is the speed of light?

Kirchhoff’s law

Wien’s displacement law

The Stefan-Boltzmann law

How to use the albedo to calculate energy absorbed from the Sun by a planet.

What the albedo is

hat the solar zenith angle is.

What eccentricity and obliquity are and how they relate to Earth’s seasons

How to calculate S0, the insolation at Earth’s distance from the Sun.

Increases in the Sun’s luminosity are not causing global warming.

How to convert between wavelength and frequency of electromagnetic radiation.

The difference between infrared and visible light.

What electromagnetic radiation is.

c “ λ ν

You now have two equations for two unknowns (Ts and Ta). Eliminate Ta from these equa-tions to solve for Ts. It will be helpful to leave Ts and Ta as T 4s and T 4a until the very end. Theanswer you should get is:

Write down an equation representing energy balance in the atmosphere. The terms involvedare εσ T 4s and εσ T 4a . Remember that the atmosphere emits both upward and downward.

Write down an equation representing energy balance at the surface. You will have to balanceincoming and outgoing energy flux terms. The terms involved are 14 S, 14 αS, εσ T 4a , and σ T 4s .

Suppose you were an evil genius and you wanted to invent a molecule to put into Earth’satmosphere to cause the maximum amount of greenhouse warming. What wavelength rangewould you choose for its main absorption band?

We often refer to a small wavelength range over which a gas absorbs well as a “band.” Whichabsorption band of CO2 is most important for its greenhouse effect on Earth?

What is the wavelength range of the main greenhouse window in Earth’s atmosphere? Toget this range correctly you will have to read the tick marks on a logarithmic plot

How are the filled (solid color) regions in the top panel of the plot related to the filled (gray)regions of the second panel from the top?

Whichcolor corresponds to a surface temperature of 210 K and which corresponds to a surfacetemperature of 310 K?

Based on the plot, how can you tell that it is the spectralintensity being plotted, rather than the Planck function (aside from the vertical axis label!)

se this to explain why the sky is blue and a sunset is red

Will blue or red light be scattered more by Rayleigh scattering? To figure this out, look backat the spectrum in section

Rayleigh scattering is scattering by gas molecules, rather than absorption. Is Rayleigh scat-tering stronger for longer or shorter wavelengths?

Which molecule is the most important absorber of sunlight that passes through Earth’s at-mosphere

Water vapor absorbs well at longer wavelengths, but has gaps in absorption starting at around11 μm. If water vapor absorbed well all the way down to 10 μm, would CO2 be an importantgreenhouse gas on Earth?

Which molecule plays the largest role in determining how much of Earth’s radiation makesit to space?

Does this correspond to the wavelength of themaximum in emission from the appropriate curve in the plot?

Use Wien’s displacement law to calculate the wavelength of maximum emission from ablackbody with a temperature of 5525

What percentage of light emitted by Earth is transmitted through the atmosphere into space?

What percentage of the Sun’s light is transmitted through the atmosphere to the surface ofEarth?

. Use the Stefan-Boltzmann law to estimate the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. This calculationis so rough that you should only keep one significant digit (number multiplying the order ofmagnitude). If you are within a factor of two, that would be great. The important point is thatyou should get roughly the same number for all of the curves, even though they representdifferent temperatures and very different fluxes.

ou can convert the boxes in this plot to the unit W m ́2 by multiplying by a factor of 5ˆ104.Do this and write it in the next column

The total flux is the sum (or integral) of the intensity at each wavelength. We can calculatethis by adding up all of the boxes underneath the intensity curve. Add up all of the boxes foreach curve.

Use Wein’s displacement law to estimate the temperature of the lightbulb for each of thethree curves.

Explain why this means that CFL bulbs are much more efficient

For each of the three intensity curves, find the wavelength where the intensity is maximizedand write it in the column marked “λm.” Notice that we want the wavelength in μm in thecolumn and it is given in nm in the plot.

The energy of photons is propotional to their frequency

Earth’s internal heat flux to the energy from the Sun that it absorbs?

an you think of a process that might explain this apparent paradox?

Earth’s average surface temperature is about 15 ̋C. Venus’s average surface temperature isabout 462 ̋C. Does this seem odd given your last answer? Why?

se your formula and the numbers in the table to calculate Fv

Suppose Fe is the energy Earth absorbs and Fv is the energy Venus absorbs. Find a formulafor the ratio F

Previously we found that the insolation a planet receives can be written S0 “ L4πd2 . Substitutethis into your formula for F to eliminate S0

If S0 is the insolation that hits a planet, find aformula for the amount of energy that a planet absorbs (let’s call if F).

Do you find the Moon’s albedo surprising? Why?

Do planets that are bare rock or cloudy tend to have a higher albedo?

From the images of the planets, which ones seem to be mostly bare rock, and which oneshave a fair amount of cloud cover?

upiter has an average internal heat flux of 5.44 W m ́2. What is the ratio of Jupiter’s internalheat flux to the energy from the Sun that it absorbs?

What is Fj, the energy from the Sun absorbed by Jupiter?

Based on images you’ve seen of the Moon, is it bare rock or cloudy?

Reflection of Sunlight:

hat is the solar zenith angle in Chicago at noon on the winter solstice?

What is the solar zenith angle in Chicago at noon on the equinoxes?

In order to generate Vitamin D in your skin, the solar zenith angle needs to be less than about45 ̋. Can you generate Vitamin D in Chicago on the summer solstice?

Chicago’s latitude is about 42 ̋N. What is the solar zenith angle in Chicago at noon on thesummer solstice?

What is the latitude of the Arctic Circle?

What is the insolation in Chicago at noon on the summer solstice?

On what two days of the year is the day length the same at the Tropic of Cancer and theArctic Circle?

On what day does the Sun never set right on the Arctic Circle?

he Arctic Circle is the southernmost latitude in the Northern Hemisphere that experiencespolar night (a day where the Sun never comes up) and the midnight Sun (a day where theSun never sets). On what day does the Sun never come up right on the Arctic Circle?

What is the latitude of the Tropic of Cancer

he Tropic of Cancer is the most northern latitude where the Sun is directly overhead on atleast one day of the year. What day of the year is it?

he insolationis the amount of solar energy that reaches a position in space per unit area per unit time. We canwrite a formula for the insolation like this:S0 “ L4πd2 ,

round considered longwave or shortwave?

Given that wecan see a red color coming from hot burners, in what part of the spectrum are they emittingradiation?

he infrared camera measures light in the wavelength range 8-14 μm (106 μm=1 m).

How many minutes does it take light emitted bythe Sun to reach the Earth? There are 1.61 kilometers per mile

hat is the speed of longwave radiation in a vacuum?

What is the speed of shortwave radiation in a vacuum?

failure-to-ask-whysyndrome—the tendency not to investigate thecauses of good performance systematically.

In this article we argue that success can breed fail-ure by hindering learning at both the individual andthe organizational level.

Now imagine the same scenario, but instead of you having wronglydecided to abandon your route, your traffic-sensitive GPS made theerror. Upon learning that the GPS made a mistake, many of us wouldlose confidence in the machine, becoming reluctant to use it again ina similar situation. It seems that the errors that we tolerate in humansbecome less tolerable when machines make them

Research shows that evidence-based algorithms more accurately predict the future than do humanforecasters. Yet when forecasters are deciding whether to use a human forecaster or a statisticalalgorithm, they often choose the human forecaster. This phenomenon, which we call algorithm aversion,is costly, and it is important to understand its causes.

Scenarios appear to have utility in reducing bounded rationality. Scenarios com-municate a vast amount of information in a story. Research has shown that sce-narios are effective because they are highly memorable, conversational, andnarrative in nature [22,27,30]. ‘‘Cognitive science research tells us that memorableinformation is more likely to be actedupon than is information that remainsunconscious andnot retrievedfrom memory. T

Individuals include and exclude information based on their mental modelsandcognitive maps. Often, people make decisions basedon nothing else [34].Many have speculatedthat the key to improving decision-making lies in changingor altering current mental models and cognitive maps [

Stickiness refers to the difficulty ininformation transfer between or among people. Von Hippel [31] defined ‘‘sticki-ness’’ as ‘‘the incremental expenditure required to transfer that unit of informationto a specifiedlocus in a form useable by a given information seeker.

Stickiness andfriction are characteristics of information andknowledge, respect-ively. Generally the term stickiness refers to a characteristic of information andisassociatedwith to cost of its transfer. Friction is a characteristic of knowledge thatdampens motions in a social setting.

Factored decision-making—decision-making will be broken down into sub-decisions for sub-groups.2. Partial andcertain information—research shows that ultimately, ‘‘decisions aremade on relatively few sources of information that are readily available and lowin uncertainty’’ [16, p. 133].3. Rules of thumb—rules of thumb, or heuristics are built up over time andthrough experience that make the gathering of information unnecessary

hile folly will bedescribed in depth as this paper unfolds, the basic premise of folly is that anerroneous course of action is maintainedthrough poor decisions even though thenegative effects are realized and avoidable.

1)bounded rationality, 2) a tendency to consider only external variables, 3) the stickiness andfriction of information and knowledge, and 4) mental models that include decision premisesor policies.

Dominance demands thatif prospect A is at least as good as prospect B in everyrespect and better than B in at least one respect, thenA should be preferred to B. Invariance requires thatthe preference order between prospects should notdepend on the manner in which they are described

he psychophysics of chanceinduce overweighting of sure things and of improbableevents, relative to events of moderate probability.

Consider, for example, a woman whose age and family history put her at high risk of breastcancer. Should she consider a course of preventative chemotherapy using Tamoxifen? Her GaleScore provides a numerical estimate of the probability she will get invasive breast cancer in thenext 5 years. The effect of Tamoxifen in reducing this probability can be estimated andcommunicated to her. Research on affect implies that the woman will perceive her risk asgreater and will be more likely to opt for Tamoxifen if both her Gale Score and the reduction inlikelihood of cancer are communicated as relative frequencies rather than as probabilities (a testof this hypothesis is currently underway)

There are two important ways that experiential thinking misguides us. One results from thedeliberate manipulation of our affective reactions by those who wish to control our behaviors(advertising and marketing exemplify this manipulation). The other results from the naturallimitations of the experiential system and the existence of stimuli in our environment that aresimply not amenable to valid affective representation.

Howinformation is presented to patients and other decision makers may have a large impact on howthey respond to risks and benefits.

If their feelings towards an activity arefavorable, they are moved toward judging the risks as low and the benefits as high; if theirfeelings toward it are unfavorable, they tend to judge the opposite-high risk and low benefit.We have called this process "the affect heuristic" (see Figure 1). Under this model, affect comesprior to, and directs, judgments of risk and benefit, much as Zajonc proposed.

The earliest studies of risk perception also found that, whereas risk and benefit tend to bepositively correlated in the world, they are negatively correlated in people's minds

Using anoverall, readily available affective impression can be easier and more efficient than weighing thepros and cons of various reasons or retrieving relevant examples from memory, especially whenthe required judgment or decision is complex or mental resources are limited. Thischaracterization of a mental short-cut has led us to label the use of affect a "heuristic" (Finucane,Alhakarni, Slovic, & Johnson, 2000)

The strategies of human reason probably did not develop, in either evolution or anysingle individual, without the guiding force of the mechanisms of biological regulation,of which emotion and feeling are notable expressions.

There is no dearth of evidence in every day life that people apprehend reality in twofundamentally different ways, one variously labeled intuitive, automatic, natural, non-verbal, narrative, and experiential, and the other analytical, deliberative, verbal, andrational. (p. 710)

Risk asfeelings refers to our fast, instinctive, and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis bringslogic, reason, and scientific deliberation to bear on risk management

"experiential system" isintuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not as accessible to conscious awareness

The "analytic system" usesalgorithms and normative rules, such as probability theory, formal logic, and risk assessment. Itis relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control