three METR researchers played themselves, with their current priorities, but pretending they had access to ~200-hour time horizon AIs – roughly what we expect 12–18 months from now.
令人震惊的时间预测：METR 认为 200 小时时间地平线的 AI 将在 12-18 个月内出现——也就是 2027 年底前。当前（2026 年初）最强模型约为 12 小时时间地平线，这意味着在不到两年内，AI 能独立完成的任务复杂度将提升约 17 倍。这不是科幻预言，而是 METR 基于实测数据的指数外推——而他们已经在为这个未来做组织准备了。
Earlier intervention is reasonable when high-risk features are present, including rapid growth (≥0.5 cm/year), symptomatic aneurysm, saccular morphology, or penetrating atherosclerotic ulcers
Anthony Costello. (2022, February 24). The risks of cognitive symptoms lasting at least 12 MONTHS were much higher in the infected group. 4.8x higher for fatigue, 3.2x for brain fog, 5.3x for poor memory, and an incredible 51x for altered taste and smell. We need data on children, but it could easily be similar. (17) https://t.co/JC1qYyW2Xc [Tweet]. @globalhlthtwit. https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1496957266016313348