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    1. Distillation is a much more compute-efficient process than training models from scratch. It allows China to build much better models than its number of chips would ordinarily enable, and thus partially evade chip bans.

      蒸馏是绕过芯片封锁的技术后门——用少量算力从强模型中提取知识。达里奥明确说蒸馏不能让中国追上前沿,只能将差距缩短至「数月以内」。这解释了为什么 Anthropic 开始封禁疑似蒸馏账号,也说明了为什么他要求专门针对工业级蒸馏的政策,而非笼统禁止开放权重。

    2. China has limited domestic production capacity, and therefore, due to the scaling laws, cannot build more powerful models than the US without US chips.

      芯片封锁的底层逻辑:Scaling Laws 就是护城河。在算力与能力高度正相关的时代,切断芯片供应链等于锁定对手的能力上限。这是达里奥三项政策中技术支撑最强的一条——只要 Scaling Laws 成立,没有芯片就没有边界突破,且这个瓶颈在短期内无法通过软件手段绕过。