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- Mar 2017
What’s more, when COP21 negotiators were asked about how confident they were in their scientific understandings of temperature rise, they showed no more confidence than the MBA students they were tested against. While it’s one thing to have a group of over-confident (probably millennial) MBA students, it’s another to have international climate negotiators reporting an average confidence level of about 4 out of 7 in their own understandings of temperature rise.
For me, this is not surprising, but rather a beautiful example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. (Graph)
They know the amount of uncertainty and lack of predictability of the severity. And they are equally sure of the trajectory of failure.