We estimate, with 90% confidence, that between 290,000 and 1.6 million H100-equivalents of compute were smuggled through the end of 2025.
大多数人可能认为走私到中国的AI芯片数量在数万级别,但作者的估计显示实际数量可能高达数十万甚至上百万H100等效芯片,这一数量级远超公众认知,表明走私问题的严重程度被严重低估。
We estimate, with 90% confidence, that between 290,000 and 1.6 million H100-equivalents of compute were smuggled through the end of 2025.
大多数人可能认为走私到中国的AI芯片数量在数万级别,但作者的估计显示实际数量可能高达数十万甚至上百万H100等效芯片,这一数量级远超公众认知,表明走私问题的严重程度被严重低估。