WeatherNext Fast and accurate AI weather forecasting
WeatherNext模型专注于提供快速准确的天气预报服务。
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- Last 7 days
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deepmind.google deepmind.google
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WeatherNext Fast and accurate AI weather forecasting
WeatherNext提供快速准确的AI天气预报服务。
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ai.google ai.google
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WeatherNext is an AI-powered ensemble forecasting model for global weather prediction. It utilizes a novel Functional Generative Network architecture, which enables it to generate forecasts 8x faster and with resolution up to 1-hour.
大多数人认为天气预报的准确性与计算时间成正比，需要复杂物理模型长时间运行，但作者展示了AI模型能够以8倍速度生成更精确预报，挑战了传统气象学的时间-精度权衡观念。
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- Jul 2016
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earthobservatory.nasa.gov earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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In April 1950, Charney’s group made a series of successful 24-hour forecasts over North America, and by the mid-1950s, numerical forecasts were being made on a regular basis.
Roughly 50 years from initial efforts to first successful forecasts.
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Charney determined that the impracticality of Richardson’s methods could be overcome by using the new computers and a revised set of equations, filtering out sound and gravity waves in order to simplify the calculations and focus on the phenomena of most importance to predicting the evolution of continent-scale weather systems.
The complexity of the forecasting problem was initially overcome in the 1940's both by an improved rate of calculation (using computers) and by simplifying the models to focus on the most important factors.
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Courageously, Richardson reported his results in his book Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, published in 1922.
Despite failing to predict the weather accurately, Richardson posted his results publicly. This is an important step in allowing the improvement of forecasting because it makes it possible to learn what works and what doesn't more quickly. See also Brian McGill's 6th P of Good Prediction
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Despite the advances made by Richardson, it took him, working alone, several months to produce a wildly inaccurate six-hour forecast for an area near Munich, Germany. In fact, some of the changes predicted in Richardson’s forecast could never occur under any known terrestrial conditions.
Nice concise description of the poor performance and impracticality of early weather forecasting.
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