k > k̃ + 1
should that be k < k̃ + 1 or k̃ > k + 1 or something?
k > k̃ + 1
should that be k < k̃ + 1 or k̃ > k + 1 or something?
δ = 0.05
is that good enough? maybe 0.025
Maybe some of the severe cases in a week’s time will be due to people that are not infected today but will get infected tomorrow.
so, rolling week? then cancel that previous note?
“safe” if b > m_d
might want to add a few from from the high-risk population to account for unknowns like people violating quarantine, especially the quarantine of their older relatives and close friends... (unless those high-riskers are to be turned away from ICU?!)
within a week
if were going worse case: 80% within a week, 15% within 2, 5% within 3?
neoteric
neoteric
adj.
Of recent origin; modern.
New; recent in origin; modern.
n.
A modern.
a means of intellectual and artistic cross-fertilization
a symbiotic bond, a means of blank blank
This is a good source for stufff
Will this stay here???
not just external reality but how our understanding of reality is constructed because it is all part of reality
Oh DID YOU HAVE TO USE THE C WORD
No really, do you not have any better options? Do you actually think it's a good option??
Thesaurus gives: CONSTITUTED. MOFO.
Ok 2b fair, he did say "How our understanding of reality is contructed" etc
unask the question
ooo!
has room for observed disagreement without a need to force competing views out so that they fit a model.
but TWITTER AND INCENTIVES AND STUFF
but now the data includes our and others’ perceptions
a turn! (lol)
maybe we can apply the revealed/stated duality to identity to resolve the confusion of being both whatever you say you are and whatever others say you are
Let's go
we don’t have to chose to look at only one of revealed or stated preferences. As duals they provide different insights into the same underlying preferences and give us a way to see into our complex and often opaque decision making process
Interesting approach
reliable information about your preferences at the cost of ignoring why you made particular choices
ya
but more issues with r p
revealed preference
I mean, here
Paul Samuelson
This here
economics
to teh rescue
So it seems we have a problem. People want to be able to choose how others think of them, yet wanting a particular identity is not enough to get it. Identity can become confusing and frustrating in cases where, say, I think of myself as kind but others don’t see me that way. How do I deal with this conflict? Do I know the essential me better than others? And if so, why don’t they see it? And if they see the “real” me, what does that mean about the value of my self-perceptions? Can I be something even if no one thinks I am, and if not does that mean I never really had the right to choose my identity?
wanting a particlar identity not enough to get to choose how others think of you
ID becomes confusing / frust in cases where I think I'm X but others dont see me as X (eg, X=kind).
How do I deal with the conflict? Do I know better about "the essential me?* If so why don't hey see it? [oo empathy, I guess]
If they see the "real" me, what does that say about my self-perceptions? Can I b something if no-one thinks I am, and if not does that mean I never really had the right to choose my identity???!!!?? [huh...? tree fal.. ikn.. forest.... er.]
Much of what we might call identity is decided by others even if we don’t like it. I don’t get to decide if you think I’m tall or short: you’re going to look at me and categorize my height. I might want you to think of me in a particular way, but you have to make your own determination about me, and all I can do is present information via various channels to try to influence your decision.
decided by others, like it or not, much of it.
Tall / short - your call not mine
All I can do is put out the information, uyou make the determniation. (orly!)!)
Eminem (next)
In modern America, many people think of their identity as a thing they own. If I say I’m a Brony, have a non-binary gender, or identify as transracial, then that’s it, and so much the worse for you if you perceive me as otherwise. This is an empowering idea that lets people escape the confines others may try to put on them and seems to make people happier than being forced into identities they don’t want. But it comes at the cost of ignoring the reality that you are not in full control of your identity.
1.identity = thing you own. 2."I'm a X" = "That's it", "so much the worse for you if you perceive otherwise." <interesting>
3.empowering - seems to make people happier, no forcing people into identities they don'w want. 4.Cost: ignoring reality that: you are not in full control of your identity.
every time the word is used so casually, it loses its power to identify and label actual white supremacists.
That's just one problem and there's probably more dire problems that are a harder sell but could actually pack a wallop; the wolf thing is probably weaksauce to anyone under 22 or sharing the relevant attributes.
Sommers was dunderheaded to go on tour with Yiannopoulos
heheheh. Yeah.
of intersectional feminism
Nitpick: not just intersectional.
a hero among young intersectional feminists and a prominent voice in social justice conversations on Twitter
(note by me because good neutral-sounding way to put it)
hold their feet to the fire and get them to answer for themselves. (Not that Rogan does much of this, which is a real problem considering the people he talks with
If Rubin gets an F, Rogan's probably a C+ though no higher than a B- or lower than a C-.
a classroom where, if the kid next to you is acting out, the teacher will send both of you to detention just to make a point.
and Fuck that!
(also, that still feels overly charitable to me)
anarcho-capitalist
Charitable: communicates quirkyness. Uncharitable: lumps in anarcho-capitalism with the alt-right. Mostly charitable: does point at the wild-west quirk of the alt-right and things with 1-3 degrees of separation (tabooing "adjacency" here) from it
“shitposting” (posting offensive and inflammatory things online to get a rise out of people).
Is that the best definition? Did Daum look up 3 or 4 and settle on this, or some other thing that satisfies "definitional due diligence?" When do other journalists do this, or fudge doing this? Why or why not?
So. You will have to figure out for yourself how to evaluate what you have just read. What considerations would be relevant? What would it even mean for it to be accurate or useful? Such investigation is the essence of meta-systematicity—because there are no predetermined criteria or methods, and no preexisting problem definition or conceptual framework to decide how to think about it.
Ok. So that can also pull people towards flatland... (or some kind of flatland state that's flatter than warranted)
her specific approach to management here is not definitional of stage five. As she says, interpersonal training and rewarding broad competence are not The Right Way. What is fiveish is the attitude of reasoned experimental curiosity, not aiming for any final conclusion or achievement, but for ongoing responsive fluidity.
Ok. But some things move more slowly, and have bigger scarier commitments...
Learning technical skills in very different fields is one of the best strategies for developing meta-systematicity
But deep work, and non-transferability of skills...
“fluid competence,” more than excellence in a specific role.
(links to E Weinstien's edge rant worrying about excellence)
meta-rationality, which understands relationships between representations and reality not as truths but as tools.
(see above)
An org chart is not reality, and you don’t change reality by changing the representation. You have to keep asking “how does this representation relate to the nuts-and-bolts reality of how these particular people work together?”
(See above)
That dynamic space is not enclosed by her skull, nor limited to her sphere of responsibility. It is co-defined by Carlos, and to varying extents by everyone she interacts with. It includes “our staff, enterprise customers, partners, investors, the IT media, and the professional community.” This is not communal-mode merging; she’s still perfectly clear that she and Carlos are dissimilar people. (And it’s certainly not the monist fantasy of “becoming one with everything.”) It’s an understanding that meaning plays out in interaction, not in her head. She has not ceded territory; she has expanded by recognizing that she contributes to, but does not need to individually own, the space.
Oh ok. The more useful framing is that Meaning PLAYS OUT in interaction. which is more important than the part of that and closely involved processes that do play out in the head. Including the memory of the name of the capital of Burkina Faso.
Prithi now values the reevaluation of ontological commitments more for the sake of allowing the ongoing unfolding of meaning than for any specific systemic improvement it may deliver. This is definitional for stage five.
Bold Ok So this is super important and may be a crux issue between me and Chapman.
are shams
O rly. No humble rule-utilitarian encapsulation stuff? Or is that actually Stage 5? Or 4.b (in hex)?
emotionally isolating, intellectually limiting, and wearyingly familiar.
(note the possibility for contrasting theoretical strands with each of these as the node in question of the strand in question. Not sure how to make more sense of that right now)
No one has been able to give a detailed, empirically adequate explanation of what “the scientific method” is, so advocating it is nearly vacuous.
Notable Chapman failure mode: to imply greater diffusion in some nebula than that nebula actually has - sometimes far greater.
Also see:
"Suppose that there is a physical thing-in-the-head that you claim represents the knowledge that “George Washington was the first President of the United States.” What physical property makes it represent that?"
Um. Neural nets that begin from different initial states and can act in the world reliably - Ie, tested to be said to represent the thing? Representation is a good destriptor for an important property. nebulous? Yes. Baby and bathwater aren't completely separate doesn't me throw out the baby. ARG. (From https://meaningness.com/comment/1278#comment-1278)
denial of nebulosity
Skill 1 to develop: NDD - nebulosity denial detector
Skill 2 to develop: ESND - excessive substantiality negation detector [needs a rename]
anti-rationalism is any worked-out denial of either 1 or 2
Now: look for places where these things happen - anti-rationalist strongholds.
Chapman meta-rationality is actually very practically minded in terms of things like epistemology (how can you know things) etc. The nebulosity insight helps with the intuition of looking for the angle of metarationalism aka the particular rationality perspective from which it's most useful to approach a given problem or situation.
gives nebulous—but useful—answers
Important for:
In this way, the true intellectual, the greatest intervention of all by an intellectual, is to didactically ensure that, like a tool that is destroyed by the thing it constructs, they themselves become superfluous.
Democracy, autonomy, rationality, yay. Good luck getting this done before AGI, but yay.
And speaking of the future: need to account for increasing fuzzyness of units, access to intellectual information and reliable processing mechanisms of any section of the whole rather than an old-style way of looking at it. At least, eventually?
As such, we can at the very least postulate a scenario where it is a good thing that the dissolution of the intellectual has occurred: a situation where all are aware that they can never abdicate their responsibility as human beings to be their own truth-determiner.
Ok democratic ought-claim aside, I agree with this and its importance (and not against the ought-claim exactly either)
How is a layman to tell the different values of the information they have access to? Thus, although in a new form, the contention that the ability to be an intellectual in this age of ours is still the dominion of the few.
FOR NOW
The intellectual is burdened by this; hence, it is the intellectual’s responsibility to make morally upright interventions rather than remain ensconced in the ivory tower. Indeed, those who find themselves in such privileged positions that do not feel burdened by this responsibility cannot, and are not to be taken as intellectuals at all.
really? cf doing good as obligation or opportunity
Like it or not, the idea of the intellectual as a bearer of objectivity and “truth” is socialized into the masses in our post-traditional societies.
kinda but... not without possibly very significant qualifications / counterforces.
Artistic, social, political, and cultural traditions are all in some sense a collective body, which in Cretan’s view makes them a herd. This is false. The possibility of communal existence, collective modes of expression, and belonging need not be described in such a denigrating manner. The intellectual must intervene; the nature of this intervention is unspecified.
networks??
it may in practice simply aid the more entrenched power (because it has greater resistance) at the expense of the undeveloped.
and reinforce the intellectuals institutional / "institution-oid" power.
Idea: Intellectual influence networks: what in what directions with what (expected) effect with what response expected when how why wuttt
For example, we accept the authority of a doctor; however, if we told a doctor that we were experiencing a headache and the doctor replied, “We need to cut your leg off,” we would not simply follow this command. In other words, our investments into authority are not random and irrational but rather based on a host of judgments and assumptions based on our intellect and experience.
cf inadequate equilibrium (moreso this one)
One clear analogy is with the medical doctor: because of our general knowledge and trust in the higher education system and vocational experience, the vast majority of us simply invest in this authority without any means by which to explore or comprehend what they are doing or saying. We simply take the prescription and put our lives in their hands.
cf Inadequate Equilibrium