Unlikely,

“People overestimate their knowledge & underestimate the probability of their being wrong.” — Nassim Taleb“人们高估了他们的知识，低估了他们犯错的可能性。” — 纳西姆·塔勒布 The cure is to put off decisions until the very last minute, so one could gather as much info/data as possible, thus increasing the likelihood of making the right bet.解决方法是将决策推迟到最后一分钟，这样人们就可以收集尽可能多的信息/数据，从而增加做出正确赌注的可能性。

同样，您不太可能通过在 Twitter 上关注大量人或加入大量 Telegram 或 Discords 来获得一些改变生活的疯狂阿尔法。关注一些高度集中的新闻来源，然后加入几个非常紧密的社区，在那里你与朋友分享东西，把你的精力集中在做事上。

但是，关注正在发生的事情是件好事，因此尝试非常慎重地创建一个集中的信息漏斗非常有用。我不断地搅动和替换信息来源，直到我能找到最让我物有所值的东西，并混合了健康的乐趣。

Twitter、Telegram 和 Discord 等公共渠道中几乎没有 alpha，所以不要整天希望有人会泄露一些让你变得富有的东西。他们分享的任何东西更有可能让你成为他们的退出流动性

It is not watching TV or scrolling on or playing games on your phone.它不是在看电视，也不是在手机上滚动或玩游戏。 Mindless activities in front of screens are what I like to call “being dead while conscious.”屏幕前的无意识活动就是我喜欢称之为“有意识的死去”。

Hindsight bias is well known: “Hindsight is always 20/20”.后见之明的偏见是众所周知的：“后见之明总是 20/20”。 It is our tendency to think that past events were more predictable than they actually were.我们倾向于认为过去的事件比实际情况更容易预测。 As a product manager, this can prevent you from properly assessing risks and learning from wrong assumptions.作为产品经理，这可能会阻止您正确评估风险并从错误的假设中学习。 To address this, you should turn “we should have known” into “how could we have known”.

Human beings have a natural affinity for stories (anecdotes).人类对故事（轶事）有着天然的亲和力。 Stories affect us differently, more deeply than sheer numbers do, because they tap into our empathy for other people.故事对我们的影响不同，比纯粹的数字更深刻，因为它们利用了我们对他人的同理心。 For this reason, we put a great deal of emphasis on ideas and perspectives that are supported by anecdotes.出于这个原因，我们非常重视由轶事支持的想法和观点。 We also more easily remember anecdotes than other facts, playing into the availability heuristic.我们也比其他事实更容易记住轶事，发挥可用性启发式的作用。 Therefore, if someone tells us a story about how they had a particular problem with our product, we will likely want to fix that problem even if the data tells us that this is a rare occurrence.