Reporters have overlooked that Robert Mercer's former employer, IBM Watson launched its Personality Insights service general use API on February 23, 2015 and was in beta before then. (It was available in 2014 and was called the User Modeling Service.) Jared Kushner's paper the Observer reported on it in July 2015. Thus, CA/SCL may have been using off-the-shelf technology. According to IBM, the service:
enables applications to derive insights from social media, enterprise data, or other digital communications. The service uses linguistic analytics to infer individuals' intrinsic personality characteristics, including Big Five, Needs, and Values, from digital communications such as email, text messages, tweets, and forum posts.
More recently another UK-based marketing firm, Unruly, has started using Watson's Personality Insights in conjunction with Facebook. It worthy of noting that the company is a News Corp firm, acquired in 2015. (See also this Press Release) The partnership was formed after the election, in December 2016:
This week, the UK-based firm announced its new Watson-assisted Unruly DNA tool. The central goal is to increase sales by trying to replicate “light buyers” of a brand’s products, the idea being that these kinds of customers already know the product line and haven’t reached their limit of purchases. This is the latest effort by the News Corp-owned firm to understand the hidden feelings of customers. In September, for instance, it unveiled a multilayered program to measure biometric responses of viewers to online video or TV ads.
IBM Watson's Personality Insights along with Apple Sauce are the APIs behind Data Selfie, a Chrome extension developed by Parsons students to increase awareness about tools used by the Adtech industry.
According to research by Richard Fording and Sanford Schram, low-information voters were an unusually large base of support for Trump. This audience was actively cultivated by Trump, who courted conspiracy theorists.
Arguments based on emotion, rather than policy, were likely the Trump strategy that few understood. As Newt Gingrich discussed in an interview with Alisyn Camerota on CNN:
The current view is that liberals have a whole set of statistics that theoretically may be right, but it’s not where human beings are. … No, but what I said is equally true. People feel more threatened. … As a political candidate, I’ll go with how people feel and I’ll let you go with the theoreticians.
Key to the military doctrine that underlies SCL's methodology is an evaluation of the susceptibility of the audience to which the message is directed. As Steve Tatham writes, the purpose of Target Audience Analysis is to:
identify accessibility, vulnerability, and susceptibility to behavioural and attitudinal influence activity. (p.10)
Alexander Nix has acknowledged the military origins of the digital strategy, alluding to TAA in a 2015 interview with Bloomberg Politics. An older version of the SCL Elections website, archived here, the copy is explicit about one of its key offerings, "Behavioural Polling", a.k.a "Target Audience Analysis". As this job posting suggests, SCL does this kind of qualitative research as a first step to define the parameters of its digital strategy, as it seems to have done for the Ted Cruz campaign.
Overlooked in the discussion of the personality model used by Cambridge Analytica is that it can distinguish low-information voters, easily swayed by sentiment, also termed "neurotics".
As David Talbot wrote in the MIT Technology Review on CA/SCL in 2016:
Academic research has established a relationship between personality and political leanings—and has found that some types of personalities are more persuadable than others.
According to reporting by Sasha Issenberg for Bloomberg Politics in 2015, when Cambridge Analytica worked for Ted Cruz, it was already producing advertisements that would appeal to low-information voters and using its tech to get the message to the right people:
In another, aimed at neurotics, the diplomat was invisible—replaced by storm clouds, foreigners burning American flags, and an admonition to “vote like your life depends on it,” intoned by an disembodied narrator. “That’s obviously something that’s quite emotive,” says Nix, “as we’re really looking to drive an emotional reaction from an audience who would be inclined to give you one.”
Just as Unruly uses IBM Watson on behalf of News Corp properties today, its likely that CA/SCL used it to deliver Trump campaign's fear-based, xenophobic messaging. Although the exact nature of the means is unclear, the strategy worked. As post-hoc analyses have shown, the "race was about race". Ultimately, consumers of conspiracy websites such as that of Trump supporter, Alex Jones, are reliable customers).
At the moment, we don't know if the predictive capabilities of Watson Personality Insights can be effectively used to target low-information voters. Research is needed to find out.