14 Matching Annotations
  1. Sep 2023
    1. concerns

      Concerns raised by who exactly? Couple of clicks would indicate strong vested interests attached (and a tonne on the line). That's not to say that these are the solution (from recollection, selection issues persist), but it is to say that these reports should be interrogated.

    1. The Charter Schools could be the means of defrauding the public. But consider the Public (Tax Funded) Elementary Schools which have rendered the U.S. 40 percent functionally illiterate and have put the U.S. below 20 th position world wide in STEM subjects. The Public Schools are the greater fraud. And things are getting worse, not better. Read more

      Bang

  2. Aug 2023
    1. Australia’s natural advantages provide potential to export renewable energy in forms suchas green hydrogen or electricity via undersea cables.

      Validity of these and/or timing of validity?

    2. Geopolitical risk and fragmentation

      Benefiting from openness while ensuring resilience. Notes the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad).

    3. Rising demand for care and support services
      1. Ageing population -> demand
      2. Expanded formal care arrangements (children, the aged, disabled) -> demand. Also notes changes in: standards of care, models, regulations, pay and conditions
      3. Need 2x care and support workforce by FY2050. Implications for sector.
    4. Climate change and the net zero transformation
      1. Australia is in strong position to benefit from global transition to net zero, i.e., strong access to renewables gives rise to cheaper energy
      2. Could benefit from lower input costs
      3. Could gain share in markets for exporting energy (emphasis on 'could' here... e.g., Sun Cable and hydrogen superpower scenario)
      4. Expect falling export of Australian coal but potential offset by other resources needed for green transition. Continued strength of other resources (iron, aluminium)
      5. Anticipates need to adapt to physical effects (impact of weather events on built environment, food production, health and global security).
    5. Technological and digital transformation
      1. New technologies see automation of tasks, giving rise to productivity and workplace safety.
      2. Growing share of knowledge jobs, demand for these skills (nature and future of work changing). GAI noted as possible factor impacting productivity.
      3. Technology expected to continue to deliver increasing income, QoL. For example: (1) new drugs and surgical procedures (2) uptake of renewables and lower GHG (3) changes in leisure patterns.
    6. Population ageing
      1. Longer lives
      2. Delayed birth and fewer children (below replacement rate)
      3. 1+2 give rise to ageing population
      4. Ageing population will see consequences, e.g., economic, social (e.g., via labour supply, service demand)
      5. Can be mitigated by intake of migrants (with conditions).
    7. Three sectors likely to experience significantchange are the care and support, manufacturing and mining sectors.• The care and support sector – including health, aged and disability care – is expectedto continue to grow, driven by population ageing, new health technologies andtreatments, a maturing National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and other factors.Meeting the demand for care will require ongoing investment and improvements indelivery.• The mining sector is expected to evolve as the world transitions to net zero andreduces its reliance on the fossil fuels and emissions-intensive commodities Australiaexports. Australia’s critical minerals and other resources could potentially become keyexports for the global net zero transformation.• The manufacturing sector is expected to continue to move into more specialisedproducts and processes consistent with Australia’s comparative advantage. If thesetrends continue, an increasing share of the manufacturing sector’s workers will behigher skilled. The net zero transformation may also create new manufacturingopportunities.

      Three sectors likely to experience significant change: 1. Care 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing

    8. By 2062–63, the economy is projected to be around two and a half times largerand incomes 50 per cent higher in real terms. However, like other advancedeconomies, Australia’s economic growth is projected to be slower than in thepast 40 years. This is driven by lower projected population growth and reducedparticipation due to ageing, along with an assumption of slower long-runproductivity growth. The economy is projected to grow by an average of2.2 per cent per year in real terms over the next 40 years compared to3.1 per cent over the past 40 years.Slower economic growth will place pressure on the tax base at a time of risingcosts, creating a long-term fiscal challenge. Despite recent improvements inAustralia’s fiscal position, debt-to-GDP remains high by historical standards.Long-term spending pressures are also rising across health, aged care, theNational Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), defence and interest ongovernment debt. Gross debt is projected to decline from historical highs beforerising again from the late 2040s to reach 32.1 per cent of gross domesticproduct (GDP) by 2062–63.
      1. Growing but slowing (via slower population growth, ageing population and slowing productivity)
      2. Slower growth pressures government revenue (tax)
      3. Fiscal deficit means cost pressure via debt payments (interest)
      4. Other costs due to macro trends growing (health, age care, NDIS)
    9. population ageing, expanded use of digital and datatechnology, climate change and the net zero transformation, rising demand forcare and support services, and increased geopolitical risk and fragmentation.
      1. Aging population
      2. Digital and data technology
      3. Climate change and net zero
      4. Rising demand for care and support services
      5. Increased geopolitical risk and fragmentation.
    1. This post-work world spurred by AI represents the type of Outside Context Problem that Ian Banks wrote about in the 1990s; the kind of problem "most civilizations would encounter just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop". By definition it’s something we can’t fully predict until it arrives, but then it will change life as we know it.

      Similar to Black Swan, vampire problem.