6,062 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2026
    1. On 2022-01-13 13:16:50, user Zacharias Fögen wrote:

      Table S9 and S8, community median income, number of cases in <50,000 is higher in S9 than in S8, which is impossible. Same but reversed for 50,000-99,999, maybe exchanged numbers?<br /> Why in Table 3 did you use log increase for median income? that makes no sense to me, as you are using steps of 50,000 each.

      However, more importantly, <br /> Table S3: HR Age per 1y increase =1.05 , that's not plausible as COVID-19 risk increases exponentially (doubles every 6-7 years). Using a linear regression on a nonlinear variable is not a fitting model. you could have used log age.

    1. On 2020-09-01 09:40:12, user Roland Salmon wrote:

      This is a thorough piece of field epidemiology, although like much field epidemiology today, the data substantially comes from existing information sources. As a former director of the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre Wales (CDSC), I am pleased that Public Health Wales, via CDSC staff, past and present, produces work of this quality.

      The study demonstrates, persuasively, that much of the problem with infection in care homes, resulted from the care home's size, rather than from receiving infected patients, discharged from hospital. Nevertheless, I do not think that it should be stated ("Research in context"p.3) that "Our analysis found no effect of hospital discharges on care home outbreaks once care home size had been adjusted for" (my underline). In fact, as the discussion section makes clearer (p11), the observed hazard ratio is 1.15 and the effect could be as high as 1,47 (Table 2), although the result is not statistically significant at the 5% level. (It would be interesting inter alia to know the actual probability of this, the most probable estimate of hazard of 1.15.) Table 3, looking at the risk of outbreaks, by care home capacity, further, implies that the effect of discharges might be particularly marked in the smaller homes (<10 beds) where I calculate that the crude relative risk of an outbreak in the post hospital discharge risk period is 3.2. compared with around 1.2 for larger homes. Anyway, an intervention that reduced the risk of outbreaks, in this vulnerable population, by some 15% would be considered by most people as well worth having.

      It's thus important to reflect whether the failure to demonstrate an effect of this size merely reflects a lack of statistical power, some of which could be due to misclassification of the outcome. The study authors recommend, in "Conclusions and recommendations" (p12), that, "further analyses should investigate the risk where discharges were confirmed or probable cases of Covid-19, and also consider additional evidence on likely chains of transmission that may become available from sources such as.....viral genetic sequence data". This is an important supplementary piece of work. In addition, the risk from hospital discharges, unlike that from home size, does not extend over the whole period of the study. I note that 16 outbreaks that occurred before certain homes received any discharges are included in the dataset so homes, therefore, enter the study before they are at risk of any infection introduced by receiving patients discharged from hospital. Secondly, homes remain in the study after 2nd May, when universal testing of hospital patients for SARS CoV2, prior to discharge to care homes, is introduced. Thus, from, a few days after this until the 27th June, the study's end date, effectively, risk from hospital discharges is eliminated whereas the risk from home-size remains. The authors consider this and report that they fitted their model, with a factor for the two time periods (before and after 2nd May). They tell us that, "this factor was found not to be significant, and did not significantly alter the hazard ratios". Whilst I understand that any alteration of the hazard ratios was not significant at alpha =5%, I would like to actually see the change in the observed hazard ratios. It might be expected that the hazard of receiving hospital discharges was higher in the period up to 2nd May, than in the period from 2nd May to the study's end.

      I was curious as to why Cox's Proportional Hazard was the test used. I don't altogether see that the risk of outbreaks following introduction, by hospital discharge is particularly time dependent, given how readily and for how long SARS CoV 2 can spread in institutional settings. Thus, I don't really see why that risk factor could not be expressed as a categorical variable (outbreak, no-outbreak) which would allow a much simpler analytical approach. I, frankly, also, don't understand the detail of the sensitivity analyses, presented, for choosing different at-risk time periods which, I feel, for a general readership, certainly, merits being explained more fully.

      Finally, I think that the discussion section could be more robust. If home size is the issue, then shouldn't the authors be saying that larger homes need to consider having dedicated areas, facilities and staff for smaller subsets of their residents. Maybe larger homes should have more stringent planning requirements. I also think that rather more should be made of the contribution of hospital discharge (notwithstanding it's failure to achieve conventional 5% levels of statistical significance) than the rather anodyne paragraph at the foot of page 11 which bears all the hallmarks of the dead hand of the corporate public relations department.

      Nonetheless, overall, this is an accomplished piece of epidemiology with important practical implications.

      Dr Roland Salmon

    1. On 2021-07-04 05:23:23, user PriyankaPulla wrote:

      Major protocol violations occurred at the largest site of the Covaxin phase 3 trial, a private hospital called People's Hospital, which recruited 1700 participants. These violations are documented extensively by multiple media outlets. And these violations raise questions about the integrity of the Phase 3 trial data. They also raise questions about the sponsors' attitude to due process, and the independence/training of the DSMB: both sponsors (the Indian Council of Medical Research and Bharat Biotech) responded to the allegations with cursory dismissals, while the DSMB remained mum.

      Further details here: https://www.thequint.com/co...

      I am listing a few of the documented irregularities:

      1. Participants told media outlets that they didn't give their informed consent, an Indian legal requirement. Many participants belonged to disadvantaged tribal communities/were illiterate, which necessitates special consent protocols under Indian law, which investigators didn't follow.

      Investigators admitted in a video-recorded press conference that they didn't give participants a copy of their informed-consent form during their first visit, unless participants explicitly asked for it. This strongly suggests that the investigators weren't trained in Indian legal requirements or Good Clinical Practices.

      1. Investigators allegedly advertised the trial as a vaccination drive in communities of poor and illiterate people.

      2. Dozens of participants say the trial team did not contact them to record solicited adverse events. These participants often didn't have their own mobile phones (mobile phones are the mode through which solicited adverse events were to be collected, as per trial protocol). Even though these participants came from poor communities, investigators didn't foresee the fact that they may not have their own mobile phones, and may be hard to contact. Nor did they attempt to contact them in their homes in the days following the doses.

      3. People's Hospital recruited a record 1700 participants in 1.5 months (no other Covaxin trial site in India managed such numbers). In contrast, another government-run Covaxin site in Bhopal struggled to even recruit a few hundred participants, and was, therefore, excluded from the trial. This supports the allegation that People's Hospital misadvertised the trial as a vaccination drive.

      4. Many participants told media outlets that they suffered Covid-like symptoms post jab, but the investigators never called them to collect this information. Nor did the participants know where to report their symptoms. This raises questions about how well Covid cases were recorded.

      5. Participants say they were denied medical treatment at People's Hospital when they fell sick. This, again, raises questions about how well the investigators captured adverse-events.

      6. When one participant at the Bhopal site died, investigators ignored his family's version of the participant's symptoms in their causality analysis. In the family's version, the participant suffered from very severe symptoms (vomiting, dizziness, weakness) for 7-8 days before death, while the investigators claimed he was fine during solicited-adverse event monitoring, and died suddenly.

      The dismissal of the family's version of events, when the family was present during the participant's death (but the investigators weren't), raises serious questions about how Serious Adverse Events are investigated. No post-mortem report or causality analysis was shared with the family despite multiple requests. Further, the family alleges that the deceased participant received no phone calls from the investigators to record solicited adverse events in the days leading up to his death.

      The investigators could easily have shared proof of their claims by sharing a record of the phone calls with the family. They haven't.


      Despite the above serious concerns (which are supported by video testimony from participants broadcast on multiple media outlets, specifically NDTV), the trial's government sponsor, ICMR, and Bharat Biotech, denied all allegations in a cursory manner. Further, the preprint makes no mention of them, or explain how these irregularities were handled.

      This raises questions about overall data integrity in Bharat Biotech's phase 3 trial. Bharat Biotech has been under substantial pressure from the government to roll out Covaxin fast, which may explain why the company is overlooking such data integrity issues. More details here: https://www.livemint.com/sc...

      Reviewers of this paper, and licensing authorities, including the World Health Organisation, must investigate these allegations thoroughly.

    1. On 2021-08-28 18:17:03, user Squid Pro Crow wrote:

      Despite the fact that I have no formal medical training, I think that I now have the real life experience to knowledgeably comment on this. My wife and I both had our second doses of the Phizer just under 5 months ago. Also my daughter and son-in-law had the Pfizer shots about 3-1/2 or 4 months ago. At the end of a 3 day stay of 2 grandkids i began to get a cough and slight fever, and lost my sense of smell and taste. So I got tested and it was positive, My wife has a cough and body aches and will be tested today. My daughter and son-in-law (in their low 40's) are also experiencing mild symptoms and will be tested today. The kids, of course had very minor symptoms for about a day, and are completely fine. So, assuming that the adults test positive, it seems evident that the delta strain does indeed spread rapidly and easily, and the vaccine(s) may not be as effective against it. HOWEVER, I feel that at my age, with asthma and possibly COPD history, I would be much worse off had I decided against the vaccine, as my symptoms are very mild now, except for the chest congestion that I have (which is already better) that I also get from just about every cold.

      My main concern is that there is not enough focus on theraputics, and major health providers like Kaiser just expect even their at-risk patients like me to just sit at home and wait to see if their lips turn blue and they can't breathe, and make it to an E.R. for a company that is usually proactive about health care, this is just stupid. An apparently, this is the norm. There are some treatments that are effective if taken early, but our government and the health system that follows their dictates are afraid to prescribe safe drugs off-label that are semi-proven to be very helpful, like ivermectin, which I managed to get from a nearby Dr. It seems to be helping clear it up even faster--my sense of smell is even starting to come back.

    2. On 2021-09-05 04:24:28, user Adriana Perez wrote:

      Regrettable the matching of the groups requires to use conditional logistic regression for the analysis which the authors did not do otherwise they would have written it. The lack of control in the matching indicates that the results can not be trusted.

    1. On 2020-09-08 12:00:16, user Wendy Olsen wrote:

      I noted that the assumptions going into this model are a consistent proportion of Overseas and Home students, and a similar size student body, as last year. In addition the cases arriving at UK campuses would be over half from UK Home Students. So even if the assumption of consistent proportion from Overseas turns out untrue, there is still the problem that having more UK Home students will bring more cases into the campuses. I also noted the summary, written by the authors:

      Their core estimate is that "81% of the 163 UK Higher Educational Institutes (HEIs) have more than a 50% chance of having at least one COVID-19 case arriving on campus when considering all staff and students. Across all HEIs it is estimated that there will be a total of approximately 700 COVID-19 cases (95% CI: 640 - 750) arriving on campus of which 380 are associated from UK students, 230 from international and 90 from staff. This assumes all students will return to campus and that student numbers and where they come from are similar to previous years. According to the current UK government guidance approximately 237,370 students arriving on campus will be required to quarantine because they come from countries outwith designated travel corridors. Assuming quarantining is 100% efficient this will potentially reduce the overall number of cases by approximately 20% to 540 (95% CI: 500 - 590). Universities must plan for COVID-19 cases ... and ... reduce the spread of disease. It is likely that the first two weeks will be crucial to stop spread of introduced cases. Following that, the risk of introduction of new cases onto campus will be from interactions between students, staff and the local community as well as students travelling off campus for personal, educational or recreational reasons.

      "COVID-19 has resulted in the on-campus closure of HEIs across the UK in March 2020 (1). Since that point universities have been working predominantly as virtual establishments with most staff working from home. Autumn sees the start of the new academic term with the potential return of more than 1.5 million UK and almost half a million international students (2).

      "The COVID-19 pandemic continues ... approximately 1000 new cases reported each day in the UK, 25,000 across Europe and 250,000 worldwide ((3) accessed 28/03/20). There have been a number of outbreaks of COVID-19 reported in universities in the USA (The University of North Carolina, Notre Dame in Indiana, Colorado College, Oklahoma State and University of Alabama (4)) where the national infection rate is approximately 10 times higher than the UK (3). advice ...(5, 6). However, it is currently unknown to what extent COVID-19 will be brought to campus by staff and students whether from the UK or abroad."

    1. On 2021-10-23 16:32:56, user CDSL JHSPH wrote:

      I really enjoyed reading about this topic and what the implications drawn by your results could mean to the medical field in regards to the development of clinical traits associated with height. Although you do draw many parallels between specific clinical traits and height, I was left confused about which height range you were drawing your associations from. I see that you do provide the average height of the individuals in the sample (individuals of approximate 176 cm height); however, are the associations being measured effective on all heights above this number or is there a specific height range in which we begin to see the development of these traits? I would suggest to clearly define this in your Introduction section in order to provide better context of which height range are significantly showing associations with each of the clinical traits detected. Further, just as my colleague below, I was wondering if you plan on publishing this study in a journal of genomics or statistical science? Your paper contains advanced vocabulary on both of these topics, and although the findings are incredibly interesting to any science-oriented reader, I do feel that it is perhaps a paper that is better aimed towards an audience with a background in genomics or statistical science. But other than this, congratulations on this paper, it is incredibly thought-provoking!

    1. On 2021-10-27 15:17:33, user Edward Jones wrote:

      I find this study very biased considering they use the 16.7% with such a small sample size, usually you'd discount that number. Also no consideration was given to the type of virus being investigated, the paper is regarding SARS COV and yet you quote 16.7% inaccuracy in Ebola virus. Furthermore, the statement saying that uninfected individuals will be in risk of exposure is nonsense. A false positive would mean they may have to isolate, having the opposite effect.

    2. On 2020-07-17 15:36:12, user Mathieu Perrin wrote:

      Dear authors,

      thank you for raising awareness that a low FPR does not per se translate into a high significance of a positive result. Hopefully, this will encourage labs to make an EQA for SARS-CoV-2.

      1) Is it possible that the FPR actually depends on the prevalence rate? For instance, if the prevalence is high, there is a greater risk to contaminate a negative sample.<br /> 2) Should the FPR be lower if two tests are conducted on the same person? I expect this to be the case unless a negative patient always give positive results for some reason. If so, the practice of double testing should be generalized. I understand you have trouble determining precisely how each country defines a positive result, whether it is on a sample basis or if samples are pooled or if an individual gets tested several times.

      Regards,<br /> Mathieu

    1. On 2020-10-25 19:08:24, user Daniel Haake wrote:

      Dear study team,

      Thank you for your study, which shows that the risk of COVID-19 death increases significantly with age. To improve the quality of the study I have some comments regarding the statistical analysis of the study. In the following I would like to go into it.


      The time of the determination of the death figures

      You write that antibodies are formed in 95% of people after 17-19 days. In contrast, 95% of deaths are reported after 41 days. That is a difference of 22-24 days. Nevertheless, you take the number of deaths 28 days after the midpoint of the study. Why do you take a later point in time than you yourselve have determined? Even with this approach, you are 4 - 6 days too late and overestimate the number of deaths. Why even this would be too late, I will explain in more detail below.

      The 41 days were given for the USA. But what is the situation in other countries? In Germany, for example, there is a legal requirement that the death must be reported after 3 working days at the latest. Of course there can also be unrecognized deaths in Germany, where it takes longer to report. But this should be the minority. If we transfer however this fact of the USA to other countries, in which the risk of the long reporting time does not exist in such a way, you take up too many deaths into the counter of the quotient with. This leads to a too high IFR.

      Counting the deaths 28 days after the study midpoint is also problematic because in the meantime, further deaths may appear in the statistics that were not infected until after the infected persons identified in the study became infected. This is because not all deaths take as long to report. These are then deaths that are not related to the study. You yourself write that the average value of the report of a dead person lasts 7 days with an IQR of 2 - 19 days. These figures speak in the statistical sense for a right-skewed distribution in the reporting of death figures. This in turn means that the majority of the deceased have a rather shorter reporting time. The procedure leads to a too high number of deaths. This is a problem especially with still existing infection waves, even with already declining infection waves.

      You write: “The mean time interval from symptom onset to death is 15 days for ages 18–64 and 12 days for ages 65+, with interquartile ranges of 9–24 days and 7–19 days.”<br /> If we assume the 3 days reporting time for Germany, we receive 18 days for the age 18-64 and 15 days for 65+. In contrast, 95% of the antibodies are formed after 17-19 days, which is about the same or later than the time when the dead appear in the statistics. For other countries this may be different and would therefore need to be investigated. In any case, a blanket assumption from the USA is not possible for studies outside the USA.

      Since the mean time interval from onset of symptoms to death is 15 days for the age 18-64 with the interquartile range of 9-24 days, but the midpoint of the range would be 16.5 days, this suggests a right-skewed distribution in the values. The same applies to the mean time interval from the onset of symptoms of 12 days with interquartile range of 7-19 days for the age 65+, where the midpoint of this range is 13 days. This also speaks for a right-skewed distribution of the values. This would mean that the majority of the values would be below the mean value in each case, making shorter times more likely. This also shifts the time too far back. Therefore it would be better to assume the median value, because it is less prone to outliers.

      Your example infection wave from figure 1 also shows the problem with this procedure. As you say, antibodies are formed in 95% of people after 17 - 19 days. Now you have an example study with the median 14 days after the start of infection. At that time, only a few of the infected persons have formed antibodies at all, since just 14 days before the infection wave starts with low numbers and then increases. Only 4 days before is the peak of the infection wave. This means that the time period, which is very strongly represented, cannot have developed any antibodies at all. This leads to the fact that only very few infected persons are recognized as infected. In your example, 95% of the deceased are now infected, but only very few of the infected. This leads to a clear overinterpretation of the IFR.

      Due to the problems mentioned, the number of deaths should therefore be taken at the median time of the study. Of course, it would be best if the studies took place immediately after the end of a wave of infection, where the death rates are stable and the expression of antibodies is complete.


      Antibody Studies

      You write: "A potential concern about measuring IFR based on seroprevalence is that antibody titers may diminish over time, leading to underestimation of true prevalence and corresponding overestimation of IFR, especially for locations where the seroprevalence study was conducted several months after the outbreak had been contained.“

      You have made many assumptions about the death figures and adjusted the death figures (upwards) accordingly. Here you find that the antibodies disappear over time and that this can lead to an underestimation of the number of infected persons. However, you do not adjust the number of infected persons upwards, unlike your approach to adjusting the death figures. For example, a study by the RKI found that 39.9% of those who tested positive for PCR before did not develop antibodies (https://www.rki.de/DE/Conte... "https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/Factsheet_Bad_Feilnbach.html)"). From this, we could conclude that the antibody study only detected around 60% of those previously infected and that the number of infected persons would have to be adjusted accordingly. But you have not done that. I can understand that you did not do that. I wouldn't have done it either, because we don't know how this is transferable to other studies. But in adapting the dead, you have transferred such assumptions to other studies. This should therefore also be avoided. There, too, we do not know how transferable it is. If you only make an adjustment in the dead, but not justifiably in the infected, this leads to an overestimated IFR.


      PCR tests from countries with tracing programs

      You write in your appendix D: "By contrast, a seroprevalence study of Iceland indicates that its tracing program was effective in identifying a high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections“.

      In my opinion this is a wrong conclusion. In my opinion, it is not the success of the tracing program, but the number of tests and thus fewer unreported cases. To date, Iceland has performed almost as many tests as there are inhabitants in Iceland. Therefore they could keep the number of unreported cases lower. Other countries did not test as much. Therefore the results are not easily transferable to other countries. The PCR tests only show the present, but not the past and not the untested.<br /> You write it yourself: „(…) hence we make corresponding adjustments for other countries with comprehensive tracing programs, and we identify these estimates as subject to an elevated risk of bias.“<br /> Nevertheless, you leave these studies in meta-analysis, although for the reasons mentioned above this leads to severe problems. The figures for countries with tracing programs should therefore not have been included. The estimated number of unreported cases is not known and cannot be taken over by Iceland.


      Study selection

      You sort out some seroprevelence studies. These include Australia [63], Blaine County, Idaho, USA [67], Caldari Ortona, Italy [72], Chelsea, Massachusetts, USA [73], Czech Republic [75], Gangelt, Germany [79], Ischgl, Austria [81], Riverside County, California, USA [98] , Slovenia [101] and Santa Clara, California, USA [116]. For the most part, these studies are sorted out because there is no age specification for seroprevelence. Since this is the study's investigation, this is of course understandable. However, these studies in particular have shown calculated IFR values between 0.1% and 0.5%. At the same time, you leave the numbers of PCR tests from countries with tracing programs in the meta-analysis. As already mentioned, this is not correct due to the unknown dark figure and the transfer from Iceland is also not possible, as described before. This leads to the fact that studies with low values are sorted out, but at the same time uncertain numbers with high values are left in the study. This shifts the calculated IFR value upwards in purely mathematical terms.

      It is precisely the outliers upwards that cause problems in the calculation. Since the numbers are rather small (in a mathematical sense), there can be no deviation as strong downwards as upwards. This means that there may be studies that deviate perhaps 0.2 percentage points downwards, but other studies that deviate upwards by 1.2 percentage points. This is a problem for the regression, because the regression then leads to too high values. Therefore, outlier detection should be performed upstream and the outliers should be excluded. You can also make it easier by taking the median value, since it is less susceptible to outliers. But then you would have only one value.

      You write: “The validity of that assumption is evident in Figure 3: Nearly all of the observations fall within the 95% prediction interval of the metaregression, and the remainder are moderate outliers.”<br /> You can see it in figure 3, but due to the logarithmic scale it is difficult to estimate the ratios. Better suited is Figure 4, which would be desirable for the different age groups to be able to make a better estimation there. Figure 4 shows that many studies are outside the confidence interval, often to a considerable extent and to a greater extent also towards the high IFR values. Looking at the values and the confidence interval, these studies must have significant z-scores, which would show that these are clearly outliers that should not be considered. This leads to the fact that the regression will be brought further in the direction of high values, which results in too high IFR values.


      Adjustment of death rates for Europe due to excess mortality

      In Appendix Q you write: "In the absence of accurate COVID-19 death counts, excess mortality can be computed by comparing the number of deaths for a given time period in 2020 to the average number of deaths over the comparable time period in prior calendar years, e.g., 2015 to 2019. This approach has been used to conduct systematic analysis of excess mortality in European countries.[159] For example, the Belgian study used in our metaregression computed age-specific IFRs using seroprevalence findings in conjunction with data on excess mortality in Belgium“

      I understand why you want to do this. But there are some dangers involved. The above statement may be true for Belgium, but it cannot be transferred to other countries in a general way. Especially since you cannot say in general terms that every dead person above average is a COVID 19 dead person. Mathematically, this would mean that there have been COVID-19 deaths in some of the last few years, because there have been periods with more deaths than the average. This makes the average straight. Especially since, as I said, you can't simply say that every death above the average is a COVID-19 death. The majority will be it, but not necessarily everyone. Thus, even cancer operations that did not take place or untreated heart attacks due to the circumstances and unnoticed visits to the doctor may have contributed a share. Whether this is the case, we do not know without a study. A blanket assumption that every death above the mean value is a COVID-19 death is not correct. From the statement "For example, the Belgian study used in our metaregression computed age-specific IFRs using seroprevalence findings in conjunction with data on excess mortality in Belgium", we could also conclude that the number of reported COVID-19 deaths is correct and can therefore be used as the numerator of the quotient for calculating the IFR. <br /> If you take this as a blanket assumption, how do you deal with those countries that do not have excess mortality but have several thousand COVID-19 deaths in the official statistics? Would you then correct the number of COVID-19 deaths downwards, perhaps even to 0? Certainly not.


      Variation in the IFR

      You write: "We specifically consider the hypothesis that the observed variation in IFR across locations may primarily reflect the age specificity of COVID-19 infections and fatalities.“

      It is also possible that the variation in the calculated IFRs occurs due to still different dark figures. If, for example, the PCR tests are taken in countries with a tracing app, but an IFR based on Iceland is calculated there, this can lead to incorrect and too high IFR values. Also the adjustments of the death rates themselves or the late time of the death rate determination 4 weeks after the study center can lead to this high variance.


      Conspicuous features regarding the correct determination of the death figures

      In Table 1 you write that on July 15 there were 8 million inhabitants with a projected 1.6 million infections. According to my research there are 8.4 million inhabitants. You calculate the 1.6 million infected on the basis of the 22.7% infected in the study. However, the blood samples were taken between April 19 and 28, so the infections occurred before or until the beginning/middle of April. So you now take the number of infected persons from the beginning/mid-April or from April 24 (study midpoint) and insert them for July 15, i.e. just under 3 months later! In the meantime, however, not only people have died, but have also become infected and formed antibodies. They thus increase the numerator of the quotient, but leave the denominator unchanged, although the denominator would also be higher. So you shift the IFR upwards here as well.

      The study on Gangelt, which was not taken into account, shows a similar picture. You write that at the end of June there were 12 deaths and therefore the IFR rises to 0.6%. That is 8 weeks (!) after the study center. This does not take into account that in Germany the deaths must be reported after 3 days. If you have proceeded in this way when calculating the other IFRs from other studies, this suggests that the IFR values are too high.


      Calculation of the IFR of Influenza

      You calculate the IFR of influenza based on the CDC figures for the 2018/2019 influenza season and indicate the IFR as 0.05%. Firstly, it should be said that statistically it is never good to look at just one value. The average of a time series should be considered. You calculate the value by looking at the estimated deaths and looking at how many were estimated to be symptomatically infected with influenza. You use a study according to which about 43.4% of cases are asymptomatic or subclinical (95% CI 25.4%-61.8%). You then take the mean value from the confidence interval with the value 43.6% and use this figure to calculate how many people were probably infected with influenza. Statistically it is not correct to take the average value of 43.6%. The value of 43.4% must be taken. Due to the small difference, this does not make much difference, but it shows the statistically imprecise consideration that runs through the study and generally leads to an IFR that is too high or, in the case of influenza, too low.

      Now a statement on the selection of the 2018/2019 flu season, the CDC writes: "These estimates are subject to several limitations. (...) Second, national rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations and in-hospital death were adjusted for the frequency of influenza testing and the sensitivity of influenza diagnostic assays, using a multiplier approach3. However, data on testing practices during the 2018-2019 season were not available at the time of estimation. We adjusted rates using the most conservative multiplier from any season between 2010-2011 and 2016-2017, Burden estimates from the 2018-2019 season will be updated at a later date when data on contemporary testing practices become available. (...) Fourth, our estimate of influenza-associated deaths relies on information about location of death from death certificates. However, death certificate data during the 2018-2019 season were not available at the time of estimation. We have used death certification data from all influenza seasons between 2010-2011 and 2016-2017 where these data were available from the National Center for Health Statistics. (…)

      The CDC writes the same for the 2017/2018 season, so the values, which were always only estimated anyway, were estimated even more due to missing data. Therefore we should have considered the figures for the seasons 2010/2011 to 2017/2017. If we calculate the IFR of influenza in this way and also use the confidence interval to calculate the number of people potentially infected per season, we get an IFR of influenza of 0.077%, ranging from 0.036% to 0.164%. Every single year prior to the 2018/2019 season was above the 0.05% and the average of 0.077% is also 54% above your reported value. This means that influenza is still not as lethal as COVID-19 has been so far, but the factor is not as high as suggested by your study.

      It should also be noted that it is not possible to compare an IFR calculation that is equally distributed over age with an IFR of influenza that is not equally distributed over age. You do not do it directly, but by naming these numerical values, this has been taken up by the media. The IFR just indicates the mortality per actually infected person. Therefore the IFR of the actually infected persons of COVID-19 must be compared with the IFR of influenza. You can of course calculate a hypothetical IFR assuming that every age is equally likely to be infected. In this case, however, the calculation must be performed not only for COVID-19, but also for influenza.


      I hope I can help you to improve the study in terms of statistical issues. I remain with kind regards.

    1. On 2020-10-29 21:32:27, user Dan Dan wrote:

      I believe high dose angiotensin 2 type 1 receptor blockade would alleviate this phenotype as, for example, olmesartan dose dependeny blunts tgfb as well as inhibits the fibrotic response and cardiac remodelling.

    1. On 2020-05-24 21:18:10, user helgarhein wrote:

      Thank you for your impressive study. I would like to ask, would you be able to check retrospectively serum 25-hydroxyvitamin-D levels (25(OH)D) in blood samples of the hospitalised covid-19 patients? The findings are probably interesting and might explain some of the excess mortality in people with dark skin types and those who are overweight. I suspect the lower the 25(OH)D level was, the worse the outcome will have been, as found in many observational studies https://www.bmj.com/content....

      The crucial point is to understand that the full beneficial functioning of vitamin D will only appear after a blood 25(OH)D level of around 100 nmol/l (40 ng/ml), unlike the erroneous definition of sufficiency of 25 nmol/l (10 ng/ml) by NICE and SACN. https://www.grassrootshealt...

      Vitamin D is the substrate for a pleiotropic seco-steroid hormone with multiple gene regulating functions in the immune system and sufficiency will most likely have beneficial influence on the covid-19 illness progression, suggested by 30 experts recently: https://www.bmj.com/content...

      A sufficient 25(OH)D level is mainly derived from UVB rays on our skin, or vitamin D supplementation. However, lighter skin types have adapted to be more efficient in using the scarcer sun light of Northern areas, and dark skin types will need much longer sun exposure to produce the same amount of 25-hydroxyvitamin-D https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih... <br /> as do overweight individuals because fat tissue accumulates it. A large number of human diseases are linked to deficient 25(OH)D levels (osteomalacia, depression, diabetes, autism, cancers, infections, inflammatory bowel diseases and many others) and vitamin D deficiency is a worldwide problem.

      I have recently retired from over 30 years working as GP in deprived areas of Edinburgh. I have seen many clinical improvements in my patients after rectifying their deficient vitamin D levels, as well as clear differences in 25(OH)D levels in different ethnic groups https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...<br /> 24/5/20 Helga Rhein https://scotsneedvitamind.com

    1. On 2021-12-04 13:02:08, user Kiwinka74 wrote:

      Hi, I think at the very end of the paper there is a typo with the term primary infection, as it reads instead as 'primary reinfection'.

    1. On 2020-07-18 09:34:46, user Richard Harrison wrote:

      Useful paper. Good to see physics being applied to droplets and virus particles, although conclusions re aerosols will obviously be affected by air flows in any particular room.

    1. On 2020-12-24 06:54:17, user altizar wrote:

      I know a nursing home where at least 6 nurses have been re-infected after around 30 days of having Covid the 1st time. So based on empirical evidence, your study is not accurate.

    1. On 2020-06-05 06:44:23, user Valeriy wrote:

      Hi! Is there a systematic bias? <br /> I mean that patients firstly have done their samples and then healthcare specialist.<br /> This workflow could affect quantity of epithelial cells collected on each step

    1. On 2020-06-05 08:30:20, user Mohamed Abu-farha wrote:

      The choice of the control population shows a serious limitation to this study. It technically assumes that people who were not infected are genetically different than those who were infected with the virus.

    1. On 2020-07-27 19:13:51, user Leah McElhanon wrote:

      We are currently using saliva specimens to detect SARS-CoV-2. Do you have any additional data are resources we can take a look at? Thanks in advance.

    2. On 2020-05-07 02:49:41, user Tiruneh Hailemariam wrote:

      Nice work! why is your observed limit of detection in copy number very high, i.e, ~5000/ml? CDC package insert says ~1000 copies/ml.

    3. On 2020-04-22 21:16:23, user cinnamon50 wrote:

      wow, so imp to reduce bottlenecks at collection and improve safety of people collecting

      can we get a transport medium like SDS that inactivztes virus, so it is BL1 sample?<br /> think that would be huge considering total effort to get reportable result

    1. On 2021-01-15 14:58:17, user Lane Dedrick wrote:

      What was the standard care treatment regimen? Did those in the experiment arms receive steroids? Did those in the standard care control arm receive steroids?<br /> What were the outcomes of the ivermectin only arm?

    1. On 2020-04-15 14:12:18, user Ed Fisher wrote:

      This regimen looks to be substantially different from those being used in the US. E.g., approximately double the HCQ dosage, no Azithromycin and in some US uses, no zinc. How does that impact the comparison?

    1. On 2020-05-06 18:59:31, user Simonsaid wrote:

      What does it mean when you say “Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding cross reactivity ofSARS-CoV-2 and other coronavirusantibodies.”<br /> Can someone explain please?

    1. On 2021-10-10 10:09:22, user kdrl nakle wrote:

      Factors that drive that disparity? Obviously rag-tag American healthcare system that has little to offer to anybody outside urban areas unless they belong to elites.

    1. On 2020-05-14 14:35:10, user Hans Tinger wrote:

      3% after 1 Werk, 6%after 2 Weeks, 9% after 3 Weeks... I am curious for week 4-8. Will you publish preliminary results soon again?

    1. On 2022-03-01 03:32:44, user Michal wrote:

      Dear authors, very interesting preprint. I would like to bring attention to Supplementary Table 3 columns "DALYs / 100,000" and "YLLs / 100,000" which have exact same values - was this intended?

    1. On 2020-03-25 21:03:54, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Summary of Findings: <br /> - Clinical data from 116 hospitalized CoVID-19 patients analyzed over 4 weeks for correlation with renal injury. Comorbidities included chronic renal failure (CRF) in 5 patients (4.3%). <br /> - Approx 10.8% of patients with no prior kidney disease showed elevations in blood urea or creatinine, and 7.2% of patients with no prior kidney disease showed albuminuria. <br /> - Patients with pre-existing CRF underwent continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) alongside CoVID-19 treatment. Renal functions remained stable in these patients. <br /> - All 5 patients with CRF survived CoVID-19 therapy without progression to ARDS or worsening of CRF.

      Limitations: <br /> - Renal injury biomarkers in patients with incipient kidney abnormalities not tabulated separately, making overall data hard to interpret. It will be critical to separately examine kidney function (BUN, urine creatinine and eGFR) in patients that developed any kidney abnormalities (7.2~10.8% of cohort). <br /> - No information on type of CoVID-19 therapy used across cohort; will be useful to correlate how treatment modality influences kidney function (and other parameters). <br /> - Invokes previous clinical-correlation studies that indicate low instances of kidney damage [1,2], but those studies did not track longitudinal urine samples for acute renal injury markers and viral shedding. <br /> - CRRT in patients with CRF is standard therapy irrespective of CoVID-19 status; it will be important to compare clinical parameters of these patients (n=5) with virus-naïve CRF patients (none in this study) to make any meaningful conclusions.

      Importance/Relevance: <br /> - This study argues that renal impairment is uncommon in CoVID-19 and not associated with high mortaility, in stark contrast to a concurrent study (https://doi.org/10.1101/202... ). If supported by further studies, it suggests kidney impairment is secondary to cytokine storm/inflammation-induced organ failure, and not due to direct viral replication. <br /> - Will be important to comprehensively characterize larger datasets of CoVID-19 patients across hospitals (meta-analyses) to conclude if kidney function is actively disrupted due to viral infection, and if renal disease is a major risk factor for worse CoVID-19 outcomes.

      References: <br /> 1. Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, et al. JAMA 2020; published online Feb 7. <br /> doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.1585

      1. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, et al. MedRvix 2020; <br /> doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/202....

      Review by Samarth Hegde as part of a project by students, postdocs and faculty at the <br /> Immunology Institute of the Icahn school of medicine, Mount Sinai.

    1. On 2020-03-28 16:06:33, user Mark Dane wrote:

      Thank you for this important study. Did you collect samples in patient rooms who were either known or expected to not have the virus so we can see the null data?

    1. On 2020-04-21 07:32:38, user disqus_WCLRBohCOX wrote:

      It would have been helpful to have Figures 1, 4, and 5 on a log-scale -- especially the visual comparison with actual data in Figure 4 would be much more meaningful.

    1. On 2020-10-26 16:15:21, user Michael O'Hare wrote:

      Drawing any conclusions from a paper in which of 84,000 + people less than .5% actually had evidence ( 361 reported having had a positive biological test) of covid infection seems optimistic.

    1. On 2020-11-05 08:59:04, user Vishal Barot wrote:

      Can I have the data of the patient as I would like to perform some prediction based on the historical data?<br /> I have trained certain model using deep learning and would like to contribute for the same.

      Thank you

    1. On 2022-09-20 10:24:38, user Okechukwu Onianwa wrote:

      Excellent work tracking levels of MPXV environmental contamination during the course of infection. Do you have any thoughts on the impact of daily cleaning on the study data?

    1. On 2020-04-23 19:04:09, user CP wrote:

      Cuomo of NY announced two hours ago (4/23) results of antibody study of 3,000 in 19 NY counties. Result showed average infection rate of 13.9% - higher in NYC, lower in rural areas...

    2. On 2020-04-23 04:46:38, user Dennis Maeder wrote:

      Although flawed, this emphasizes the need for good representative sampling and antibody testing and the strong possibility that current case counts are wildly underestimated.

    3. On 2020-04-20 08:50:19, user dixon pinfold wrote:

      A great many commenters assert that people worried that they'd been exposed to the virus would be over-represented in the study. This seems speculative up to a point, but certainly plausible, and I do not wish to debate it.

      Some then go on to assert that anyone else would be too afraid to leave the house. Here I think they are on much less solid ground.

      For one thing, not knowing what was in the recruitment ad, we don't know if they were aware that they would remain in their cars, windows rolled up till finger-prick time.

      For another, it places a decisively higher estimation on fear (of infection resulting from the single excursion to the testing site) than on curiosity motivated by the desire to be rid of such fear once and for all. This must be true for some people, but for some, surely, it was the other way around.

      Then there is the matter of age. Here I freely admit to the speculative element, but it has been for me very easy when out in public in recent weeks to tell by their behaviour how much less fearful younger people are, if they're fearful at all. Who could fail to notice?

    4. On 2020-04-22 02:45:15, user Dr. Héctor Musacchio wrote:

      My main concern is about false positives. How can we define asymptomatic case? How can we differentiate a false positive from an asymptomatic only with a positive test at a precise moment only?

    5. On 2020-04-17 21:03:35, user John Ryan wrote:

      The researchers identified that 50 out of 3,300 participants tested positive for CV-19 antibodies. Spinning this as 50 to 80 times greater than current prevalence rates as determined through testing is disingenuous. The posted study does not account for the significant upward adjustment from 1.5% of participants to a 2.4% to 4.2% in the general population given the study participants were a skewed convenience sample drawn from Facebook participants, many who believed they had been exposed to CV-19 and had had previously experienced symptoms consistent with CV-19.

    6. On 2020-04-17 21:28:07, user Daniel Shanklin wrote:

      This study abstract should be rewritten as follow: "A study of Facebook users who thought they might have COVID-19 resulted in a roughly 2.49% to 4.16% positive-test rate"

      The fact that you've extrapolated this to an entire population is confounding.

    1. On 2020-04-23 21:28:37, user David Scott wrote:

      This is interesting, using text mining to estimate how many people are sick. Perhaps people may be more inclined to post that they are sick than actually go to the doctor? I think the article is worth reading.

    1. On 2020-05-02 20:41:46, user wubba lubba dub dub wrote:

      1. The CDC numbers may not be the actual ones. 2. Does not seem to count the fact that the number of testing has increased.
    1. On 2025-07-24 23:50:17, user Rong Liu wrote:

      Update on the association between influenza vaccination and cardiovascular outcomes

      Dear readers,<br /> As the authors of a living systematic review on the association between influenza vaccination, cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization, (1) we want to update readers on the findings from our most recent search. The review protocol specifies updates every six months for a minimum of three years, commencing April 2022. The baseline search was conducted on 31 May 2022, with subsequent updates on 25 January 2023 and 1 September 2023. Results from these initial searches were published in Vaccine in January 2024. (1)

      The latest search, completed on 31 March 2025, identified two studies that meet the eligibility criteria for review inclusion. Both are multi-center trials conducted within a single country, with a follow-up duration of at least 12 months. A third study was excluded due to its shorter follow-up period of only six months. (2,3) The eligible studies include a China-based trial (PANDA II) enrolling patients hospitalized for heart failure, (4) and an India-based trial (FLUENTI-MI) enrolling patients with recent myocardial infarction. (5,6) In both studies, the intervention is influenza vaccination. The comparator in FLUENTI-MI is saline placebo, and standard care in PANDA II. The primary outcome in both trials is a composite of all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalization during the locally defined influenza season.

      As of 6 June 2025, neither study has publicly available results, and therefore we are unable to update the meta-analysis at this time. Table 1 summarizes the study characteristics and expected timelines. PANDA II completed recruitment in February 2024 and is expected to report results within the next year. (4) FLUENTI-MI is projected to complete recruitment in October 2028. Given the current pace of research in this area, we believe that biannual updates are no longer necessary, and we will transition to annual updates for the next five years, starting from the date of this latest search.

      Reference <br /> 1. Liu R, Fan Y, Patel A, et al. The association between influenza vaccination, cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization: A living systematic review and prospective meta-analysis. Vaccine. 2024/02/15/ 2024;42(5):1034-1041. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.01.040 <br /> 2. Liu R, Patel A, Du X, et al. Association between influenza vaccination, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality: a protocol for a living systematic review and prospective meta-analysis. BMJ Open. 2022;12(3):e054171. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054171<br /> 3. Tkaczyszyn M. Vaccination Against Influenza Pre-discharge in Heart Failure. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06725927 <br /> 4. Zhang Y, Liu R, Zhao Y, et al. Influenza vaccination in patients with acute heart failure (PANDA II): study protocol for a hospital-based, parallel-group, cluster randomized controlled trial in China. Trials. 2024/11/25 2024;25(1):792. doi:10.1186/s13063-024-08452-8<br /> 5. Roy A. Influenza Vaccine to reduce cardiovascular events in patients with recent myocardial infarction: a multicentric randomized, double-blind palcebo-controlled trial. https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=CTRI/2024/05/067056 <br /> 6. Roy A, Yadav S. Influenza vaccine in cardiovascular disease: Current evidence and practice in India. Indian Heart Journal. 2024/11/01/ 2024;76(6):365-369. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ihj.2024.11.247 <br /> https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

    1. On 2025-07-30 13:21:44, user Abebe Almu Fola wrote:

      the preprint has been published PMID: 40681807 PMCID: PMC12274420 DOI: 10.1038/s43856-025-01008-0. Can you help me to do connection between the preprint and the published version

    1. On 2022-10-24 16:26:51, user KaAcWh wrote:

      Dear Drs. Pretorius and Bell. Thank you for this interesting study. I am concerned, however, of your experimental design and statistical approach used. We know now, from various peer-reviewed publications, that covid vaccines can cause microclotting, platelet hyperactivation, immune dysregulation and can also lead to autoantibodies being produced. By having two study groups: i.e. controls and long-COVID sufferers, each including a fair amount of vaccinated individuals (33 vs 24%) and then comparing mean values of each response variable between these groups, it is not possible to examine the contribution of COVID vaccination to the values. This is a serious flaw in your study as it currently stands. I would be very interested in seeing the new results with two-way ANOVAs, GLMs or mixed effects models to take into account the effect of vaccination to your observed results. Without this approach, it is simply not possible to conclude what you and your coauthors have concluded.

    1. On 2022-11-18 07:18:20, user Ehrenfried Schindler wrote:

      Dear authors,<br /> first, I would like to congratulate to this fantastic initiative. The study is of great importance for pediatric anesthesia. In order to avoid limitations of the apricot study together with unsharp data I want to suggest a (online) meeting with the apricot steering committee to discuss your protocoll. This may help your study to hopefully much better data quality as in the apricot <br /> Once again, congrats and good luck to you all!<br /> Ehrenfried Schindler, Bonn, Germany

    1. On 2022-12-01 02:06:01, user Kenneth Alfano wrote:

      NOTE: A revised version of this article has been published in the Journal of Clinical Trials (open access), after peer review and edits/corrections. Citation: Tarasev M, Chakraborty S, Alfano K, Muchnik M, Gao X, Davenport R. (2022) Use of Packed Red Blood Cell Mechanical Fragility to Indicate Transfusion Outcomes. J Clin Trials. S19:001. DOI: 10.35248/2167-0870.22.S19.001

    1. On 2022-12-22 00:47:40, user Charles Warden wrote:

      Hi,

      Thank you very much for posting this preprint.

      I apologize if I am overlooking something, but I was trying to learn more about Supplemental Table S1. Is this missing a reference in the main text?

      Also, separate from Table S1 in the PDF, there is an uploaded Excel file that says "vip_gene_count" in the sheet name. Is this meant to be referenced in the first paragraph of the results for the 'VIP' database? If so, should there be a main text reference and an identifying number such that the total tables would then become Table S1-S5 (instead of the current Table S1-S4 in the PDF)?

      Thank you very much!

      Sincerely,<br /> Charles

    2. On 2024-01-17 20:36:43, user Karen Eddleman wrote:

      In the acknowledgements section, there is a sentence that appears in both paragraphs: "The All of Us Research Program would not be possible without the partnership of contributions made by its participants."

      Also, the correct spelling should be "principal" in this sentence: "See the supplementary information for a roster of past and present All of Us principle investigators."

    1. On 2023-01-21 12:41:08, user Joel Pessa wrote:

      There appear to be 3 paths for CSF to drain (recirculate) from the brain:

      1. direct drainage through CSF channels in the dura (hence the name canaliculi) directly along the falx to the thoracic duct

      2. thru arachnoid granulations into the sagittal sinus veins

      3. thru extra-dural lymphatic communications to the head and neck (scalp, nasal sinus)

      If the first path is blocked, CSF backs up in the optic nerve (pia and epidural CSF channels), leading to optic disc edema.

      This is a proposed etiology for the spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome.

    1. On 2023-02-10 20:50:43, user Onuralp wrote:

      This preprint shows a very useful application of NLP for annotating clinical trial outcomes and makes the derived labels publicly available on their platform. We have previously used these annotations to assess the relative importance of human genetics evidence, and would appreciate if authors can cite our work where relevant.

      https://arxiv.org/abs/2207....

    1. On 2023-03-15 10:27:28, user Chinh Quoc Luong wrote:

      Dear The medRxiv Team and Readers,

      Our article has been published in BMJ Open.[1]

      Thank you very much!

      Best regards,<br /> Chinh Quoc Luong

      [1] Do SN, Dao CX, Nguyen TA, et al. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis in Vietnamese intensive care units: a multicentre, cross-sectional study. BMJ Open 2023;13:e064870. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-064870.

      Online publication is available at: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/con...

    1. On 2023-04-17 21:38:28, user Dean F. Sittig wrote:

      Did all of the studies you reviewed use the same order-retract-reorder measure to determine potential wrong-patient errors? If so, did any of them consider the implications of using this type of estimate in situations in which the likelihood of a user noticing that they made a wrong patient decreases as the number of charts open at the same time increases? If this hypothesis re: the limitations of the measurement were true, what would that do to the conclusions drawn from the studies that used the measure?

    1. On 2023-04-26 15:28:46, user Matthew A Stults-Kolehmainen wrote:

      There is a correction needed in the original preprint.

      On lines 346-347, it should read, "Model B had a better fit index than Model A, as quantified by the cophenetic correlation 346 coefficient (c = 0.85 and 0.50, respectively)".

    1. On 2023-05-05 14:25:04, user David Curtis wrote:

      A number of other studies have examined the effects on common phenotypes of rare coding variants identified in exome-sequenced UK Biobank samples.

      This paper examines the effect of using different annotation schemes to quantify missense variant pathogenicity, including in GCK, LDLR and PCSK9:

      Curtis D. Exploration of weighting schemes based on allele frequency and annotation for weighted burden association analysis of complex phenotypes. Gene 2022 809 146039.

      These papers report that rare variants can have large effects on phenotype, again including in GCK, LDLR and PCSK9:

      Curtis D. Analysis of rare coding variants in 200,000 exome-sequenced subjects reveals novel genetic risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2021.

      Curtis D. Analysis of 200,000 exome-sequenced UK Biobank subjects implicates genes involved in increased and decreased risk of hypertension. Pulse 2021 9 17-29.

      Curtis D. Weighted burden analysis in 200,000 exome-sequenced subjects characterises rare variant effects on BMI. Int J Obes 2022 46 782-792.

      Curtis D. Analysis of 200,000 exome-sequenced UK Biobank subjects illustrates the contribution of rare genetic variants to hyperlipidaemia. J Med Genet 2021.

      All these papers seem very relevant and I would have thought that they ought to be cited.

    1. On 2023-05-28 06:54:51, user Stuart Gilmour wrote:

      Dear authors, I really want to believe this study (I am vulnerable to Ramsay Hunt Syndrome and have got this vaccine, and I would love to believe it also reduces my risk of dementia!) but I think you have massively under-estimated the effectiveness of the vaccine, which is a real missed opportunity. I want to explain why and I hope you'll take my comments into account. I think there are three sources of error in your study which I list in order of severity: 1) failure to take into account period at risk, 2) the change in slope term and 3) confounding due to education/wealth in sub-analyses.

      [Obviously, the comments that follow assume I have correctly understood your methods, so please forgive me if I have missed something your explanation]

      1) is the reason I think the study under-estimates the effect. I wondered why it is that you found a vaccine efficacy (after adjusting for take-up of the vaccine) against shingles of 41%, while the 2005 NEJM study you reference finds it to be 55%, and I think this is because you have not properly accounted for follow-up time. Judging by how you report probabilities, you seem to have calculated the proportion of people over seven years who got shingles (Fig 2) or dementia (FIg 3). This is also clear from your equation (1), which is a linear probability model. But since shingles incidence, dementia incidence and death risk increase by age and your primary study cohort is 80 years old, follow-up time is a very important variable. Judging from your figure 2, the youngest people were 78 and the oldest 82 in this study. It's very likely therefore that the youngest people had to be followed for considerably longer before a diagnosis of shingles/dementia, and were also less likely to die of other causes. A person who dies of other causes before getting shingles/dementia should not be considered in the calculation, since we didn't find out whether they got it - they should be censored. Then, if we calculate incidence densities, we will find the youngest people (with the lowest proportion of cases) have a considerably longer follow-up time to diagnosis, and were less likely to drop out of follow-up early due to death. If you properly account for this in the model, I think you'll find that the rate in younger people is much lower than in older people and the discontinuity is greater.

      I don't have UK data to hand, but I do have a life table by single year of age for the USA, which implies that there would probably be about 40% more follow-up time in the 78 year olds than the 82 year olds over the entire 7 years of the study, simply because of drop out due to death from all causes - a 78 year old american has a 4% chance of dying in one year, while an 82 year old has a 5.7% chance. Those differences add up over 7 years of follow-up!

      This study is a classic survival study, and your decision not to use the follow-up time means that you have over-estimated the incidence density in young people and under-estimated it in older people. This also explains why your sex-stratified analysis finds no effect in men. How could the vaccine not work in men but work in women? Because at this age (~80 years old) men are dying much faster than women, with death rates increasing more rapidly over the study period, which attenuates the effectiveness more in men than in women.

      If you use an incidence density (Poisson regression) or survival approach, it's easy to reproduce the approach described in equation (1) but you'll be properly accounting for follow-up time, avoiding the known problems associated with a linear probability model, and properly able to compare your results with those of the previous shingles vaccine studies.

      [I'm sorry all my comments here hinge on my interpretation from your methods that you have assumed a 7 year follow-up for everyone, and simply calculated the proportion of events as the number who got shingles/dementia divided by the number at risk at the start of the 7 years. If I'm wrong about this, please ignore everything I wrote!]

      For problem 2), the change of slope term, it seems obvious to me that the slope after week 0 in figure 3A is poorly fitted. If there was no change of slope term in this model, the change in level would be smaller and your study would show no effect. Was the beta3 term in your model for figure 3 statistically significant? I think it wasn't - there is no visible change of slope in the data shown there. Given how borderline your estimate of the change in level (Beta1) is, I think the conclusion of this analysis depends heavily on whether you choose to include the non-significant change of slope. Of course, this isn't very important because a) we should always report studies of this kind separately by sex and b) once you properly adjust for follow-up time the effect of the vaccine will be so huge that we'll immediately have a statistically significant effect with or without the change of slope term.

      For problem 3), you estimate the CACE based on the assumption that there is "no other difference in characteristics that affects the probability of our outcomes occurring", and date of birth eligibility threshold "is a valid instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of receipt of the zoster vaccine on our outcomes". I'm not sure why you would believe this. People who receive any voluntary preventive health care in the UK are much more likely to be wealthy, to be better educated, and to be from certain occupations and backgrounds, and I would suggest it's highly likely that these factors are strongly associated with reduced risk of dementia. The method here is nice, but the assumption is completely unreasonable in the NHS context, and it's likely that these confounding factors would lead to a reduction in the CACE estimate. Again, if you properly account for follow-up time I doubt this will matter because the raw impact of the vaccine eligibility itself will be so much larger than your estimate that you will find a much bigger impact without needing to do any calculation of CACE (but anyway a simple caveat about this, or a calculation separately in each wealth stratum, might solve the issue).

      I can't see any way that the lack of proper calculation of follow-up time would reduce the effectiveness of the intervention you have tested, so I'm going to continue to believe that this vaccine prevents dementia, but I worry that you have massively under-estimated the size of the effect and I guess there is a tiny chance the impact of this mis-calculation could go the other way.

      I guess you could argue it doesn't matter if you've under-estimated the effect but I would say it does. I'm sure you're aware that in the UK the chickenpox vaccine is not part of the routine childhood immunization schedule. If your study finds a huge effect of shingles on dementia risk, this is a strong argument for preventing it at childhood, through inclusion of the vaccine in the routine schedule. But currently your study finds no benefit for men, a 20% overall reduction in relative risk, and about a 40% reduction in relative risk for women. I think if you properly account for follow-up time the effects will be much larger and consistent across men and women. Even a cursory consideration of such large numbers would surely be sufficient to tip even the UK's relatively anti-vaccination institutions into recommending both a) routine chickenpox vaccination of children b) routine shingles vaccination of adults and c) earlier implementation of adult vax. Currently for example in Japan the vaccination for shingles is recommended at age 50 but not covered under insurance, costs about 40,000 yen (350 pounds) and is not widely taken. If it has a huge impact on dementia risk the policy implications are enormous. So please don't undersell your work by using this linear probability model!!!

      Thank you!<br /> Stuart Gilmour<br /> Professor, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics<br /> St. Luke's International University<br /> Tokyo<br /> Japan

    1. On 2023-07-07 16:44:43, user Stephanie London wrote:

      This paper has now been published in Frontiers in Microbiology and appears in Pubmed. Reference is Wang Z, Dalton KR, Lee M, Parks CG, Beane Freeman LE, Zhu Q, Gonz Lez A, Knight R, Zhao S, Motsinger-Reif AA, London SJ. Metagenomics reveals novel microbial signatures of farm exposures in house dust. Front Microbiol. 2023 Jun 21;14:1202194. doi: 0.3389/fmicb.2023.1202194. eCollection 2023. PMID: 37415812. PMCID: PMC10321240.

    1. On 2023-08-13 10:24:43, user Cath Miller wrote:

      Why are the "never vaccinated" grouped with those with 1 or 2 doses?

      Is there a likelihood that people who reacted badly to 1st or 2nd jab didn't take a third?

    1. On 2023-08-13 18:29:56, user Zrinka Starcevic wrote:

      The authors present a well-designed study with few weaknesses that should be adressed before publishing or discussed in the manuscript. The strength of this study is inclusion of patients from a younger age group, as opposed to studies that have been published about the subject so far. The English in the manuscript is written in a professional manner and is in need of minor changes. A more detalied introduction would be something I would suggest as well as more information on the choice of inclusion criteria. Furthermore, limitations in the study are in need of further investigation and elaboration. Lastly, I commend the authors on this study and encourage further work on the subject.

    1. On 2023-09-18 14:27:21, user Jazmin Aguado-Sierra wrote:

      This work has been published as a book chapter in:<br /> Aguado-Sierra, J. et al. (2024). HPC Framework for Performing in Silico Trials Using a 3D Virtual Human Cardiac Population as Means to Assess Drug-Induced Arrhythmic Risk. In: Heifetz, A. (eds) High Performance Computing for Drug Discovery and Biomedicine. Methods in Molecular Biology, vol 2716. Humana, New York, NY.

      https://doi.org/10.1007/978...

    1. On 2023-09-19 08:13:05, user Robert Eibl wrote:

      To my understanding both bivalent vaccines seem to work very well. I wonder if the slight differences could be attributed to the different group composition - although very comparable (but one group had about 10% more diabetics and also more heart diseases in the group). The technology of the mRNA vaccines seems to be comparable, but if I remember correctly, Moderna uses 100 microgramm per dose, BioNTech only 30, right? Could this be an explanation for the supposed better outcome with the higher dose?

    1. On 2023-10-06 12:33:05, user Ashok Palaniappan wrote:

      An advanced version post peer-review is now available [open-access]:<br /> Muthamilselvan S, Palaniappan A. CESCProg: a compact prognostic model and nomogram for cervical cancer based on miRNA biomarkers. PeerJ. 2023 Sep 27;11:e15912. doi: 10.7717/peerj.15912. PMID: 37786580; PMCID: PMC10541812.

    1. On 2023-10-09 09:09:13, user Susie Huntington wrote:

      The article has now been accepted for publication by the European Journal of Cancer Prevention without edits and will be published shortly.

    1. On 2023-10-25 00:51:38, user Samina Sultana wrote:

      Wonderful research structure! It's very admirable how much detail was provided to illustrate the process by which the literature to support the study purpose was selected. Guiding the readers through step by step process in which eligibility of each paper was determined through meticulous and fully blinded process not only instills trust from the audience but it also validates the credential of the information that has been analyzed and dissected to be included in this paper. I understand that the actual transition practices were vaguely described, but were there any information provided that would help synthesize the outcome of these 10 selected transition strategies already in practice? It would be a useful piece of information to support the purpose of this paper, which is to establish what already exists as a basis for future work on relative effectiveness. Examining the efficacy of these initial topology to highlight the importance of work done in this paper.

    1. On 2023-11-26 10:25:15, user Chris Dye wrote:

      Just for fun, you might also be interested in the long-forgotten... Epidemiology Infect. (1995), 115, 603-621 Measles vaccination policy

    1. On 2023-11-29 10:44:02, user Theo Sanderson wrote:

      Thank you for posting this preprint.

      Sequencing data can be found via Sequence Read Archive (SRA) accession PRJNA1043164.

      I have not been able to locate these data on the SRA - could you provide a link? Many thanks.

    1. On 2023-12-12 14:56:43, user Tanmoy Sarkar Pias wrote:

      This paper has been accepted to an IEEE conference. A link (& DOI) to the IEEE Xplore will be added when this article is published. Please see the following copy right details of IEEE..

      2023 26th International Conference on Computer and Information Technology (ICCIT), 13-15 December, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh

      979-8-3503-5901-5/23/$31.00 ©2023 IEEE

    1. On 2023-12-28 06:16:03, user William Bond wrote:

      Thank you for the excellent research.

      I would like to help in two ways. I think these changes will make a difference in the peer review process.

      First there are two misplaced numbers in Table 1. The median age numbers were obviously put in the wrong columns. This is a very serious error that does not impact the rest of the paper. The total median age of 54.1 is correct. The median age for vaccinated is actually 55.7 (not 45.3 as erroneously printed) and the median age of the unvaccinated is 45.3 (not 55.7 as erroneously printed). The numbers as printed are impossible.

      Second, because of this significant disparity in median ages, I would like to see your analysis for each age category. Of course, the younger group is statistically healthier. We want to know how people who are 20-29 and vaccinated compare to people 20-29 who are unvaccinated, and so on for each age category (30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+). Median ages and comorbidities should be disclosed for both groups in each age category.

      You have gathered some of the best data in the world. These additional reports could be done in a later study; the p value will likely increase, which can make publication more difficult.

    1. On 2023-12-29 17:07:05, user Brinda Gour wrote:

      Hi, greetings for the day!<br /> This paper mentions that the supplementary data will be available upon request. Could you please grant access to supplementary material for me? This will be helpful for my review. Thanking you.

    1. On 2024-01-17 12:03:28, user Leonardo Martins wrote:

      This ancestral-reconstruction based phylogeographic approach has been used before by us in SARS-CoV-2 analyses: <br /> 1. for finding the number of transmission events into or outside Lebanon https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go... <br /> 2. For estimating migration patterns between regions of England https://www.nature.com/arti...<br /> 3. To count the number of exports and importations into Pakistan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...

      In our case we used the mugration model as implemented in TreeTime or ASR models implemented in Castor for R (https://cran.r-project.org/... "https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/castor/index.html)")

    1. On 2024-04-27 21:04:36, user Christopher Ho wrote:

      I'm so glad that more research is being conducted on Tsw. As a TSW sufferer myself, it gives me hope to know that there may be better ways of diagnosing and treating the condition. I hope more studies come out of this and thank the authors very much for taking a big brave step forward towards publishing this for our community. It means a lot to us that this condition is acknowledged and medical guidance for use of TCS is properly updated by pharmaceutical companies and dermatologists.

    2. On 2024-05-13 23:39:06, user Srinidhi wrote:

      So happy to see research being done in this space. Please continue- this helps TSW warriors and everyone in the skin community!

    3. On 2024-05-19 16:23:05, user Millie Le wrote:

      Five dermatologists and a referral to Johns Hopkins culminated into an informal diagnosis of “funky eczema”, launching my 12-year relationship with TCS and triamcinolone injections. No one could make sense of my eight biopsies. They all noted the same result - the possibility of a drug reaction. Because no one in the medical community equated TCS to this possibility, I continued to manage my misdiagnosis with the medication that started it all. Until it was unmanageable. From unknown hives to TSW, my journey is a familiar story. “Although no formal diagnostic criteria for TSW exist, reports of patients experiencing TSW are very common online.” Yes. Sadly, this. I am forever thankful to the Internet which led me to ITSAN and a global community who understood what I was experiencing. My entire world changed with this knowledge and four years later, I no longer have “funky eczema”. I am grateful to researchers who did not cast a whole community aside as overzealous medical sleuths quarterbacking the medical community from their desks. With continued research such as this, we are equipped with the tools to educate and prevent others from making the same unnecessary TSW journey where, “The only way out is through.” Thank you for your dedicated work which further validates and acknowledges the existence of TSW. More research to understand TSW, diagnose it, and treat it, please.

    1. On 2024-05-06 14:16:22, user DocLee wrote:

      How about you break it down by infection versus reinfection? I would think you have the relevant data as you seem to have the history of those previously infected and not infected. But, for some reason, you don't seem to be putting it in these papers of yours.

      If you're using the entire population which includes all persons previously infected and those not previously infected, claiming that the number of doses correlates to an increase in infection doesn't make any sense as a good portion of your population has already been infected. Without breaking it down into infection versus reinfection, you really can't make that claim as you're actually looking at initial infection versus reinfection. If the rate of initial infection increases with each dose among those that have not been previously infected, you'd have an argument.

    1. On 2024-07-09 12:41:39, user Peter A McCullough wrote:

      Binkhorst and Goldstein have used a small sample size which is insufficient to find the signal of COVID-19 vaccination, subclinical myocarditis, and sudden death in athletes triggered by catecholamines during exertion. In June 2021 the US FDA and CDC issued a warning on mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis as a serious adverse event. Binkhorst and Daniels are advised to be cautious and conservative on new genetic biotechnology that has clear cardiac safety concerns in the published literature and by regulatory authorities.

      We have found it takes a vaccinated population of ~2 million to readily observe the vaccine effect of increasing cardiac arrests. See Hulscher, N.; Cook, M.; Stricker, R.; McCullough, P. A. Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington. Preprints 2024, 2024051665. https://doi.org/10.20944/pr...

      https://www.preprints.org/m...

    2. On 2024-07-10 21:16:54, user Nicolas Hulscher wrote:

      This study inadequately addresses the role of vaccination by failing to account for the documented adverse events associated with mRNA vaccines. According to Polykretis et al ( https://doi.org/10.1111/sji.13242 ), there is substantial evidence of serious adverse events following mRNA vaccination, including myocarditis, which is known to increase the risk of SCD. Their analysis highlights that the incidence of myocarditis post-vaccination is significantly higher than post-SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in young males. Additionally, their findings show a concerning rise in athlete deaths due to cardiovascular complications since the rollout of mRNA vaccines, far exceeding pre-pandemic averages. Thus, Binkhorst and Goldstein's conclusion that there is no evidence of a link between mRNA COVID-19 vaccination and SCD in athletes is unsubstantiated and overlooks critical data suggesting otherwise .

    1. On 2024-08-14 07:26:35, user Christina Dahm wrote:

      Hi there!<br /> Since posting here, our paper has been published. Could you add this information to the preprint listing? Thanks!<br /> 10.1007/s00394-023-03090-3<br /> bw Christina

    1. On 2024-10-18 20:47:08, user CDSL JHSPH wrote:

      First of all, thank you very much for writing this preprinted paper. This article has provided me with a number of ways to assess the duration of treatment with tuberculosis therapy. This paper provides a robust framework for comparing the effectiveness of different approaches through rigorous simulation studies. By carefully modeling a variety of regimen-response relationships and testing various methods under a variety of sample sizes and conditions, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each method, making a valuable contribution to the field of clinical trial design. These findings have the potential to improve the efficiency and accuracy of trials for infectious diseases (especially tuberculosis) and can be generalized to other therapeutic areas. This paper opens up promising new research directions and provides a solid foundation for future work in the field. From my personal perspective, one limitation that needs to be mentioned is the risk of underestimating the Minimum Effective Duration (MED), especially when the sample size is small. If the duration of treatment is underestimated, patients may receive suboptimal treatment, which may lead to higher recurrence rates or incomplete cure.

    1. On 2024-11-11 04:16:52, user Christopher Penney wrote:

      This preprint, "Tucaresol: A Clinical Stage Oral Candidate Drug With Two Distinct Antiviral Mechanisms", was published September 30, 2024 in the refereed journal, Journal of Clinical Review & Case Reports.

      CL Penney, Ph.D.

    1. On 2025-02-27 18:33:49, user Gholamreza Farnoosh wrote:

      The authors of this manuscript information and data about the people of Iran and their health and health society without documents and only based on personal opinions and mentalities, which need to be answered.<br /> In this MS, Iranian scientists, researchers, and medical personnel have been accused of becoming populists in the field of health during the Covid-19 epidemic, despite the fact that more than 400 physicians, nurses, etc. died while treating patients.<br /> The publication of more than 16,000 valuable articles in the field of Corona by Iranian researchers (Indexed in Scopus, which ranks Iran in the 15th ranking in the world) cannot be ignored.<br /> Failure to purchase vaccines from foreign countries and lack of vaccination on time were among the issues mentioned in this MS, while at first the purchase of vaccines and vaccinations were on the agenda of the managers of the Iranian Ministry of Health, but the American sanctions were an obstacle in this way. Of course, with great efforts, the purchase of vaccines from China and Russia and the continued research and production of Iranian vaccines were carried out.<br /> Attendance at religious ceremonies and its relationship with the increase in deaths in Iran are among the other issues that have been mentioned, while during the Corona epidemic, Iran's political and spiritual leaders emphasized not to hold mass ceremonies in mosques, etc., and even the shrine of Imam Reza, which is one of the holiest places for Muslims in the world and Iran, was also closed. In addition, the trends of the disease Prevalence peaks in Iran were similar to the peaks created in the world.<br /> Why is the percentage of deaths in Iran compared with countries like Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc., where vaccination was not important? Why Iran has not been compared with advanced countries such as America, France, Brazil, Russia, India, etc., which were mostly vaccine manufacturers and whose death rate was higher than Iran?<br /> Why have Iranian researchers, who were among the creators of the vaccine, been insulted based on the false data that was published in one of the magazines? Why has the understanding and intelligence of the civilized people of Iran been insulted with the title of being populist? Were the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, etc. vaccines completely effective and safe? And many questions that can be asked to the authors of this paper.<br /> In the end, I would like to thank the administrators of the medrxiv site, who provide the basis for the publication of articles to help solve the problems of in the field of health, and I will soon present you a letter in this regard with documentation. I hope that the explanations presented can have a desired effect on the fair reaction of the medRxiv administrators in the continuation of the publication of the considered MS.

    1. On 2025-04-09 00:40:29, user Susan Conklin wrote:

      So every hospital I ever worked for required unvaccinated nurses to wear masks if they didn’t vaccinate. What was their policy? It certainly could be a confounding factor

    1. On 2022-05-12 15:22:37, user L. Collado Torres wrote:

      Congrats on getting this massive project to the pre-print finish line! Kudos to you!

      I specially like how you have formatted your work and made it "journal style" with embedded figure and figure legends, the two column layout, and overall it looks great. I also greatly appreciate that you shared the methods, supplementary figures, and supplementary tables on medRxiv (not everyone does so!). Furthermore, I love the tab "header_key" on your supplementary Excel file which describes all of the columns in your supplementary tables. That makes it much easier to understand the information you are providing. I also like that you mentioned the specific version numbers of the software you used, since software changes frequently in frontier fields like yours.

      I might have missed it, but I could not find how to access the data you used or the code for this analysis. Not sharing data and code is detrimental to open science. For code, you could share it through GitHub, GitLab, or some other social coding platform (or directly on medRxiv: you currently have a note telling people to check the supplementary PDF file with the methods description). I would also encourage you to share your code permanently at a repository like Zenodo, Figshare, among others where you'll get a DOI. GitHub repositories can be deleted, so it's best to make the code permanently available. If you have questions about this process, I'd be happy to chat with you.

      Best,<br /> Leonardo

    1. On 2022-07-28 10:00:11, user Martin Schulte-Rüther wrote:

      An updated, peer-reviewed version of this manuscript has been published in the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry.

      Schulte-Rüther M, Kulvicius T, Stroth S, Wolff N, Roessner V, Marschik PB, Kamp-Becker I, Poustka L (2022). Using machine learning to improve diagnostic assessment of ASD in the light of specific differential and co-occurring diagnoses. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13650

    1. On 2022-09-05 18:03:38, user Michael L. wrote:

      Appreciate the close look at mechanism and the robust set of readouts. Overall an excellent study that will set a new benchmark for characterization of humoral responses to vaccination.

      Am curious about the group defined as having an interval between prior infection and booster of <180 days. These were 6 out of the 11 prior-infected patients. Would it be possible to show all intervals so we can see if the 180-day cutoff makes sense, and also see the distribution of intervals within this group? For example, there may be different implications if 5 of 6 patients were infected within 30 days before boost, vs. 5 of 6 patients infected more than 170 days ago.

      Thank you for the nice work.

    1. On 2022-09-13 12:47:02, user Yonatan Oster wrote:

      The article was published in a peer-reviewed journal:

      Cohen MJ, Oster Y, Moses AE, Spitzer A, Benenson S; Israeli-Hospitals 4th Vaccine Working Group. Association of Receiving a Fourth Dose of the BNT162b Vaccine With SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Health Care Workers in Israel. JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5(8):e2224657. Published 2022 Aug 1. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.24657

    1. On 2022-09-23 18:40:11, user Andre Caldwell wrote:

      This is an interesting paper, with an innovative study design which includes individuals with specific mutation and risk variants for Alzheimer's disease. <br /> I really wanted to like this paper, but after ready it in depth, just the study design is worth.<br /> 1) this study generated data in more than 1 million nuclei. After QC only 300K pass QC, meaning that more than 70% of the data was removed. when a study remove 70% of the data, it is not clear if what is left is reliable. This is very concerning indicating a large problem in nuclei extraction, batch effect or data generation.<br /> 2) the most common cell type on this study was oligodendrocytes which is totally unexpected. None of the other published studies using the technology has this finding. In fact, normally neurons is the most common cell type. This support that there is a large problem with this data.<br /> 3) the authors forgot to include a very basic comparison which is the major cell proportion vs. status. This is striking as the authors have a nice previous papers in which they do the same with deconvoluted bulk-RNA seq and single nuclei RNA-seq. No presenting this data is suspicious, as is it one the basic analyses and a good positive control.

      Besides that, the paper is difficult to follow, tries to cover many things, but fails to go in any in detail or provide any interesting results, making the study very descriptive without providing clues about disease pathogenesis.

      this paper have been as a preprint more than one year, suggesting that the authors are having problems to published these findings. May be the reviewers had several concerns.

    1. On 2020-04-23 12:44:36, user dirk van renterghem wrote:

      The problem is the absence of randomisation. Were patients given HC or HC+Azitro at admission, or because they were deteriorating? If so (in some) we cannot compare the deteriorating with the non-deteriorating population... In the HC group 17% had creatinine>5mg/dl, much worse than the no-drug group... , also more anemia an lymphopenia.

    2. On 2020-04-21 20:33:30, user Roleigh Martin wrote:

      Why was not Zinc added to the dosage, many clinical reports have been made about how critical Zinc level monitoring and Zinc supplementation is to successful use of this Rx.

    3. On 2020-04-22 02:06:38, user David B Joyce wrote:

      19 patient shifted fromNo HC to HC(7) or HC+AZ(12) after ventilation. Ventilation is obviously a sign of increasing severity and greater risk of death. If all of these ventilations resulted in death, then the pre ventilation treatment fatality statistics might look like 22%(HC), 13% (HC+Az) and 21% No HC. Need the data on individual outcomes. Also not impressed with the cohorts.

      SPo2 >95: 63%(HC) 57.5%(HC+Az) 73.4%(No HC)<br /> BP> 159: 19.6% 9.7% 9.5%<br /> creatinine>5 17.5% 11.5% 7.6%

    4. On 2020-04-22 17:28:38, user Gooney wrote:

      You can’t expect prospective randomized placebo controlled conclusions from a retrospective study. You can conclude that the manner in which the drugs were use led in a VA setting showed no benefit and demonstrated harm. Further detailed studies with significant power would be needed for more elaborate conclusions. Why are we using the drug? Based off a study that had 30 patients and reported outcomes that were not likely to occur given the number of patients included in the study. You need 100 patients for one death. Over 70 patients in the same 100 will recover without incident. Yet people are prescribing a drug that potentially could do harm.

    1. On 2020-04-23 13:10:03, user ABO FAN wrote:

      The overwhelming majority of Japanese people who are positive for COVID-19 are seniors in their 60s or older (easily infected). On the other hand, many foreigners are in their 20s to 40s (not easily infected). Cruise ship passengers are mainly senior Japanese and foreign families. When you correct for age, the number of Japanese positives is overwhelmingly low.<br /> Now it is statistically clear that BCG is effective.<br /> Since the original data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare provide only the number of positive individuals, the age structure of all passengers, including non-infected ones, is unknown. I suspect that an opponent wrote this paper in bad faith even if he knows the truth. https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

    1. On 2020-04-24 05:31:54, user Rajendra Kings Rayudoo wrote:

      To <br /> Yang Yu, Yu-Ren Liu, Fan-Ming Luo, Wei-Wei Tu, De-Chuan Zhan, Guo Yu, Zhi-Hua Zhou

      I read the paper want to know how this accurately measures the presymptomatic and asymptomatic people in populated countries like India <br /> And can you please tell how this actually works and give results to calculate<br /> And I also want to know how much percentage there will be the sucess ratio.

      By my opinion the 1st case to the recent one the areas which are located the surrounding people should be Quarantine and time and tested and also tells the people who they contacted in the period of time

    1. On 2020-04-24 12:11:44, user Mortal Wombat wrote:

      Okay, you did this, but why? Is it really anything other than an overfit model?

      Your original projections were off. You're never going to collect enough data for this to be falsifiable.

    1. On 2020-04-28 14:00:55, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Main Findings<br /> This preprint sought to compare the daily deaths in countries using CQ/HCQ as a treatment from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to those that did not. From a list of 60 countries in descending order by number of confirmed cases, 16 countries were selected for inclusion into either the high CQ/HCQ production or use group, versus not. Countries were included if they met the criteria for having data from the day of the 3rd death in the entire country and the daily deaths for the 10 days immediately following, until both groups were populated with a list of 16 (Figure 1: Table with the CQ/HCQ group list; Figure 2: Table with the “control” group list). For each group of countries, the average daily deaths were determined, and the curves projected to illustrate trajectories. In Figure 3, the author suggests that the deaths in the countries belonging to the control group follow an exponential curve, while the progression of average daily deaths in the countries with greater use of CQ/HCQ follow a polynomial curve.

      The author then applies Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), a modeling tool used for time-series forecasting (i.e., predicting the future trajectory of data over time using the data from previous time points as predictors in a linear regression). The Auto Regressive component refers to each difference between two previous time points that make the model “stationary” (current – previous); the Moving Average is the number of forecast errors from calculating these differences that should go in the model. The author uses ARIMA to predict the next 10 days of mean deaths for the CQ/HCQ list (Figure 6) and the control countries (Figure 8). In figures 9 and 10, autocorrelations of residuals are performed to determine internal validity of the model, here defined as no significant autocorrelations.<br /> In conjunction, the author argues that these findings support major differences in death rates between countries that use/mass produce CQ/HCQ versus those that do not.

      Limitations<br /> The title of this study refers to itself as an ecological study, an observational study in which the data are defined at the population level, rather than individual. Although this study design allows for rapid hypothesis testing in large datasets, a robust ecological study should account for as many known risk-modifying factors or confounders as possible. Subsequently, any results should be reviewed under strict criteria for causality, since there is high probability of the outcomes falling under the definition of ecological fallacy, which occurs when inferences about individuals are determined from inferences about a group to which they belong.

      This study conflated the use and mass production of CQ/HCQ at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in each respective country, with that country’s direct pandemic response. It is never explained whether use or production is the key output for any given country, which are vastly different metrics. The author fails to consider other reasons for having existing infrastructure for the mass production of drugs like hydroxychloroquine, whether the country was a global supplier of the medication (India), or is a region where malaria is endemic (India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea), which may correlate to both chloroquine production and use. Notably, the countries from which studies of HCQ in the treatment of COVID-19 have been predominantly performed (China, France, USA), are all in the control list of countries. Additionally, the data for cases and deaths were collected from reports accessed from https://www.worldometers.in... data were not selected from the top countries using a methodological approach, but rather skipping certain countries to use only the most complete death data for the timeframe of interest, allowing for bias introduced by the reporting of each individual country.

      With regards to the statistical methods applied, namely ARIMA, they are non-standard practices for interpreting the results of an ecological study. The first problem with this, in my opinion, is that the message will be difficult to interpret and criticize for many scientists, as ARIMA will be unfamiliar to most in the biological sciences. Further, the models applied (Table 4) do not take into account any confounders, which is a requirement for robust analysis of an ecological study. There are only 3 variables in this type of model: p, the autoregressive coefficient, q, the moving average coefficient, and d, the difference between points in the time-series. Any flaws or bias inherent to the input data are then upheld and propagated by the model, which does not allow for any other variable that would contribute to the risk of death.

      Significance<br /> The faults of the stratification of countries into the groups proposed in this study, together with the unorthodox application of ARIMA modeling, make it challenging to accept the conclusion that the author draws in this study. The apparent decrease in death rate in countries with a high production/use/either/or of CQ/HCQ could be due to any number of other factors for which this study did not account. The top 5 countries in both confirmed cases and reported deaths are all in the control list, which has no relationship to the amount of CQ/HCQ production within those countries yet skews the data to make the dynamics of death rate appear more dramatic.

      Reviewed by Rachel Levantovsky as part of a project by students, postdocs and faculty at the Immunology Institute of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

    1. On 2020-05-05 13:21:34, user Franko Ku wrote:

      Hope this is right about the mechanism and she gives some insight on HCQP <br /> https://m-jpost-com.cdn.amp...<br /> excerpt<br /> The Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA), the national authority responsible for drug regulation in Italy, has an approved trial of hydroxychloroquine on 2,500 patients, which will start in early July and focus on the use of hydroxychloroquine in prophylaxis, Chiusolo said. The study, for which preliminary data would be ready within 16 weeks, will look at whether the preventive intake of the drug decreases the probability of contracting COVID-19 when one comes directly into contact with a positive patient.<br /> THE ROLE of hydroxychloroquine in the prevention and fight against coronavirus was also the subject of a study published in The International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, which describes how a healthcare worker infected with the novel coronavirus traveled freely within a hospital before being diagnosed with the virus.<br /> “It was not possible to quarantine everyone who had come into contact with the healthcare worker,” Chiusolo said. So, they treated 211 healthcare professionals and patients with hydroxychloroquine. After 10 days, nobody tested positive for the coronavirus.<br /> Furthermore, Chiusolo told the Post, the Italian Society of Rheumatology interviewed 1,200 rheumatologists throughout Italy to collect statistics on contagions. Out of an audience of 65,000 chronic lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients who systematically take hydroxychloroquine, only 20 patients tested positive for the virus.

      Then we have a questionable prevention trial for prevention with HCQP funded by Gates Foundation at Univ of Washington where the placebo is high dose Vitamin C instead of inert pill. Why? So the results aren't as different. They should also give same amount of Vitamin C to the HCQP arm.<br /> https://clinicaltrials.gov/...<br /> excerpt<br /> This is a randomized, multi-center, placebo-equivalent (ascorbic acid) controlled, blinded study of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults exposed to the virus<br /> also see for others joing<br /> https://www.clinicaltrials....<br /> In fact here's one of the studies using Vitamin C and zinc and Vit. D with HCQ<br /> https://www.clinicaltrials....

      There need to be many many more trials and studies including zinc.<br /> Here is one:<br /> https://www.clinicaltrials....

      Some good news about Gilead's remdesisvir but if accurate as Dr. Fauci said will need an anti-inflammatory cohort. We have one in HCQP AND zinc.<br /> https://www.insiderbaseball...

    1. On 2025-09-29 22:21:03, user A.O. Akinrinade wrote:

      Hello,

      In Figure 2 (page 8), I believe it would be helpful to have a color legend showing these archetypes you've inferred. I think at least having the archetype number annotated would make it easier to connect the figure to the text.

      Best,<br /> Ayomikun

    1. On 2025-11-30 07:05:45, user Ali Rahimi wrote:

      Dear authors,

      I have read your interesting article. I think the following revisions would strengthen the article:

      Abstract<br /> Clarify that the 72.4% and 38.2% figures come from patients reporting barriers, not from the full sample, so the denominator is clear.<br /> Keep wording aligned with the design: change “barriers limit uptake of cataract surgery in Bangladesh” to “barriers were commonly reported among patients undergoing cataract surgery in Bangladesh.”<br /> Make the main statistical result consistent with the Results: state that education, income and prior surgery were associated with the number of barriers (Adj R² = 0.138).

      Introduction<br /> A few sentences are long and repetitive around “accessibility” and “health inequities”. Tighten these into one concise paragraph without changing meaning.<br /> Where you describe evidence as “scarce”, add 1 sentence that positions your study among Bangladeshi work (rural children, Rohingya, etc) and makes clear that prior studies were population specific.

      Methods<br /> In “Participants and data collection” clarify in one sentence that 595 patients consented, but analyses of barriers use 583 due to item non-response.<br /> Briefly describe how the “fear score (0–5)” and “barrier count” were constructed (number of items, response scale, direction).<br /> You model a count outcome with linear regression. Add one line acknowledging that barrier counts were approximately normal and that this approach was chosen for simplicity; alternatively mention that Poisson or negative binomial regression would give similar interpretation.

      Results<br /> Ensure mean age is reported consistently (Abstract uses 62 years, Table 1 has 61.3). Choose one rounding rule and use it everywhere.<br /> Replace approximate p notation “p ? 0.003” and “p ? 0.221” with standard “p = 0.003” and “p = 0.221”.<br /> Table 3: the p value shown as “1” for “Afraid of surgery” under gender should be reported as “1.000” or the exact test result.<br /> Table 4: the p values for “Number of reported barriers” currently read “> 0.001”; this should be “< 0.001”.<br /> In the text for section 3.3, “The geographical barrier of transportation is predominant in our study” is misleading because cost is clearly highest. Rephrase to “an important barrier” rather than “predominant”.

      Discussion<br /> Soften causal phrasing. Examples:<br /> “Patients who delay seeing an eye doctor are more likely to postpone surgery and show up with advanced cataracts” could be “Patients reporting delays in seeing an eye doctor often present with more advanced cataracts.”<br /> Any sentences that link barriers directly to “prolonging the waiting period” or “contributing to disability” should be framed as association, not cause.<br /> When you describe gender norms and decision making, keep language neutral and clearly signpost what comes from your data versus from cited literature.<br /> Consider one short sentence acknowledging that your barrier profile reflects people who ultimately accessed surgery and may under-represent those who never reach services.

      Limitations<br /> Add explicit mention that the cross-sectional design and the hospital-based sample (only patients scheduled for surgery) limit causal inference and generalisability to all people with cataract in Bangladesh.<br /> You already mention possible social desirability bias; make that sentence more direct and link it to self-reported barriers.

      Conclusion<br /> Tone down strength of generalisation: instead of “The study's strength lies in its inclusion of a diverse population, thereby increasing its generalizability” use “The inclusion of patients from hospital clinics and outreach camps provides some diversity, although findings still reflect one service network.”<br /> Rephrase recommendations as suggestions: “could help improve access” or “may help bridge the knowledge gap” rather than “can facilitate” or “will improve”.<br /> Keep the ending sentence tightly tied to your data: emphasis on cost, transport, time, fear, and gendered escort constraints.

      Tables and Figures<br /> Check that the labels in Figure 1 and Figure 2 match exactly the barrier wording used in the questionnaire and in the text (for example “hospital too far / no transportation”).<br /> Consider adding “multiple responses allowed” to the figure legends for barriers.

    1. On 2025-11-30 17:00:32, user Cyril Burke wrote:

      RESPONSE TO REVIEWER #2<br /> June 27, 2022<br /> Reviewer #2: Thank-you for the opportunity to review this work which highlights the importance of monitoring serum creatinine over time and how this can be a useful tool in detecting possible CKD. This is an important topic as the use of sCr on its own is certainly under-utilized and changes are often missed because they don’t fall into a predefined category.<br /> Thank you for considering our manuscript and for your detailed comments.

      MAJOR CONCERNS

      A. “Choi- rates of ESRD in Black and White Veterans” doesn’t fit with the rest of the paper including the title; the introduction and conclusion also don’t adequately address this portion of the paper. It feels disjointed from the main point of discussion which is the use of sCr in screening “pre-CKD”. This section and discussion should be removed and possibly considered for another type of publication.<br /> We have attempted to clarify this inclusion. This manuscript could be divided into three or four short papers, increasing the likelihood that any one of them would be read. However, different groups tend to read papers about screening for kidney impairment, racial disparities, cofactors in modeling physiologic parameters, or policy proposals to encourage best practices. Despite the appeal of perhaps three or four publications, we decided to tell a complete story in a single paper, but we are open to suggestions.

      Black Americans suffer three times the kidney failure of White Americans. Other minority groups also have excessive rates of kidney disease. However, analysis of Veterans Administration interventions can bring that ratio close to one, similar interventions might also reduce to parity the risk for Hispanic, Asian, Native Americans, and others. Within-individual referencing should allow better monitoring of all patients and help to reveal the circumstances and novel kidney toxins that lead to progressive kidney decline. The ability to identify a healthy elderly cohort with essentially normal kidneys would help to calibrate expectations for all. Better modeling of GFR should help everyone, too.

      Over eight decades, anthropologists have had little scholarly success in diminishing the inappropriate use of ‘race’. Keeping these parts together may be no more successful, but we feel compelled to try.

      B. Cases 1 - 3, (lines 93 – 122): where are these cases from? There is no mention of ethics to publish these patient results, which appears to be a clear ethics violation. If so, these cases should be removed and patient consent and ethical approval obtained to publish them.<br /> The authors describe the reasons for not obtaining an ethics waiver for this secondary data analysis. Despite this, the relative ease of obtaining an ethics waiver for secondary data analysis usually means that this is done regardless.<br /> We take patient privacy seriously and have completely de-identified the Case data, as required by Privacy Act regulations. We understand that no authorization or waiver was necessary. We discussed the issues with an IRB representative, reviewed the relevant regulations, and confirmed no need for formal review of a secondary analysis of already publicly available IRB-approved data or of completely de-identified clinical data collected in the course of a treating relationship.

      IRBs have a critical role to play, but many (including ours) are overworked. We understand the impulse authors feel to gain IRB approval even when the regulations clearly do not required it. As we discuss in the revision, there is a more significant matter that IRBs could help to resolve if they have the resources to do so. For all of these reasons, and even though we, too, felt the urge to obtain IRB approval, we resisted adding “just a little more” to their work.

      C. The message of the article and data representation is unclear: do the authors wish to show that sCr is superior to eGFR in this “pre-CKD” stage, should both be used together? Do the authors wish to convey that a “creatinine blind range” does not exist? Or is the aim to demonstrate that continuous variables should not be interpreted in a categorical manner?<br /> Our interest is detection and prevention of progression of early kidney injury at GFRs above 60 mL/min – a range in which eGFR is especially unreliable. We have advanced the best argument we can to detect changes in sCr while kidney injury is still limited and perhaps reversible. If experience reveals that some avoidable exposure(s) begins the decline, then clinicians might alert patients and thereby reduce kidney disease. How best to use longitudinal sCr remains to be determined from experience. However, our message is that early changes in sCr can provide early warning of a decline in glomerular filtration. We are confident that clinicians can learn to separate other factors that may alter sCr, as we do for many other tests.

      MINOR CONCERNS<br /> ABSTRACT<br /> A. Vague. Doesn’t give a clear picture of the study<br /> We have tried to clarify the title and abstract and are open to further suggestions.

      INTRODUCTION<br /> B. 51 – 57: needs to state that these stats are from e.g. the US. The authors should consider adding international statistics to complement those from the US.<br /> We have updated the statistics on death rates from kidney disease to include US and global data.

      C. 68: reference KDIGO guidelines, state year<br /> We now reference the KDIGO 2012 guidelines.

      D. 75 – 77: is this reference of the New York Times the most appropriate?<br /> We have expanded this section with peer-reviewed, scholarly references. However, we found Hodge’s summary of the issue succinct and hence potentially more persuasive for some than decades of scholarly references that have had limited or no effect in the clinic.

      E. 82: within-individual variation not changes (this is repetition of the point made in lines 425 – 427, but should match the language)<br /> We have matched the language.

      F. 82 – 84: reference? If this is a question it should be presented as such<br /> We have attempted to clarify this statement.

      G. 84: “normal GFR above 60” = guidelines (including KDIGO) do not refer to 60 as normal GFR, 60 – 89 is mildly decreased. (see line 126)<br /> We agree and have corrected the language.

      H. 93: avoid the use of emotive words such as apparently (also in line 428)<br /> We wanted to emphasize appearance without proof and have made these changes.

      I. 94: “Not meeting KDIGO guidelines”: KDIGO 2.1.3 includes a drop in category (including those with GFR >90). This would appear to include some of the cases listed. Additionally, albuminuria should have been measured for case 2 and 3.<br /> We have clarified that cases may or may not fit KDIGO categories, though that question will frequently arise in evaluating sCr changes. Where available, we have added urine protein and/or albumin results to the Cases.

      J. 97: “progressive loss of nephrons equivalent to one kidney”: this is based on a single creatinine measurement.<br /> Since the original submission, we discovered for this Case (now Patient 3) early serum creatinine results and notes indicating a six-month period off thiazide diuretic. This data clarified the baseline and showed a remarkable effect of thiazide diuretic on sCr. We have added follow-up sCr results and details of thiazide use to the ASC chart.

      K. 93 – 122: Could any of these shifts be explained by changes in creatinine methodology or standardization of assays, especially over 15 – 20 years (major differences between assays existed before standardization and arguably still exist with certain methods).<br /> It would be useful to see a comparison between serial sCr and eGFR measurements on the same figure. There appears to be significant (possibly more pronounced) changes when eGFR is used. As line 87 mentions changes in eGFR may be as useful (and in some situations more useful) than changes in sCr alone.

      It would be helpful to have a chronology from each local laboratory with the date of every change in creatinine assay or standardization. However, any single shift draws attention but does not necessarily indicate significant change in glomerular filtration. After one or several incremental increases, over at least three months, the sCr pattern may meet the reference change value (RCV) that signals significant change. In the future, from age 20 or so, a patient’s medical record should retain the full range of the longitudinal sCr for true baseline comparison.

      As noted in the revised manuscript, Rule et al showed that there is measurable nephrosclerosis even in the youngest kidney donors, suggesting that some injuries (perhaps exposure to dietary toxins) may begin in childhood and that early preventive counseling may be worthwhile. Experience will show whether this can slow progression to CKD. As we note, quoting Delanaye, sCr accounts for virtually 100% of the variability in eGFR equations based on sCr (eGFRcr), and these equations add their own uncertainties, so no, we do not believe that eGFR is more useful than sCr when GFR is above 60 mL/min and possibly much lower as well.

      We have added eGFR results to the ASC charts (in blue), though availability was somewhat limited.

      L. 127 – 142: should there be separate charts for males and females, the differences in creatinine between males and females needs to be discussed somewhere in the paper.

      We do not think there should be separate charts for men and women based on size. The role of sex in eGFR equations is mainly based on the presumption that the average woman has less muscle mass than the average man. Clinicians care for individuals, not averages, and this sweeping generalization that increases agreement of the average of a population introduces unacceptable inaccuracy to individual care. Within-individual comparison eliminates the need for assumptions on relative size or muscle mass. Major changes in an individual’s muscle mass will usually be evident to the clinician who can adjust for them.

      However, reports suggest significant influence of sex hormones on renal function, including effects of estrogen and estrogen receptors, such as reducing kidney fibrosis, increasing lupus nephritis, and increasing CKD after bilateral oophorectomy. The mechanism of these effects and how they might be incorporated into eGFR estimating equations is unclear, but the effort may benefit from a more individualized approach with focus on a measurand rather than matching population-based averages of a quantity value (calculated from measurands).

      M. Similarly, is this suitable for all ages?<br /> We think so. Another sweeping generalization based on age merely introduces another inaccuracy which complicates the task of clinicians caring for individuals. Older persons have varying health, athleticism, muscle mass, dietary preferences, etc. Rule et al reported that biopsies of about 10% of older kidney donors had no nephrosclerosis. Within-individual comparison eliminates the need for assumptions on relative muscle mass or inevitable senescent decline in nephron number. We substitute the assumption that any change in an individual’s muscle mass will be evident and can be accounted for. A seemingly ubiquitous risk factor, or factors, starts injuring kidneys at a young age, which we may yet identify.

      N. 162 – 163: rephrase<br /> Done.

      METHODS<br /> O. 185 – 193: aim belongs in the introduction, can be adjusted to complement paragraph 178 – 182.<br /> Reorganized and rewritten.

      P. 196 – 205: reference sources

      References provided.

      Q. 224 – 247: not in keeping with the rest of the article or title and conclusion

      We have revised and restructured this section.

      RESULTS<br /> R. If eGFR is treated as a continuous variable does inverted sCr still have higher accuracy?<br /> We believe so. Serum creatinine is a measurand and reflects the total sum of physiologic processes, known and unknown. In contrast, eGFR equations yield a quantity value, calculated from a measurand and dependent on the assumptions and approximations incorporated by their authors. The eGFR equations are thus necessarily less accurate than the measurands they are derived from, in this case, sCr. In a hyperbolic relationship, as the independent variable drops below one and approaches zero, the effect is to amplify the inaccuracy of the independent variable in the dependent variable. By avoiding the mathematical inverting, the data suggest that direct use of sCr is far more practical for pre-CKD.

      S. As mentioned, the section on ESRD in black and white veterans doesn’t fit in with the rest of the article.<br /> We have revised, reorganized, and rewritten. We also outlined our rationale above.

      DISCUSSION<br /> T. As mentioned, section 4.1 doesn’t fit in with the rest of the article. As the authors note the correlation between illiteracy and CKD is likely not causal.<br /> See above.

      U. 387: erroneous creatinine blind range. The data presented does not show this is erroneous there is still a relative blind range. A distinction must be made between a population level “blind range” and an individual patient’s serial results. The data and figure 4 in particular demonstrate the lack of predictive ability of sCr above 40ml/min compared to below 40ml/min at a population level. For an individual patient this “blind range” is more relative, and a change in sCr even within the normal range may be predictive. (Note: the terminology “blind range” is problematic).<br /> We agree. On reading closer, Shemesh et al call attention to “subtle changes” in serum creatinine even though they had access only to the uncompensated Jaffe assay, so their recommendation to monitor sCr is even more forceful, today, due to more accurate and standardized creatinine assays. We have attempted to clarify this in the manuscript.

      V. 399 – 400: “rose slowly at first and then more rapidly as mGFR decreased below 60” this refers to a relative blind range. Whether these slow initial changes can be distinguished from analytical and intra-individual variation is the question that needs to be answered before we can say a “blind-range” doesn’t exist for an individual patient.

      We appreciate this observation. We believe longitudinal sCr is worth adopting to gain insights into individual sCr patterns, which may reveal early changes in GFR, among other influences on sCr. This is a low-cost, potentially high-impact population health measure, and there seems little risk in trying it because many clinicians already use components of the process.

      W. 425 - 432: sCr is indeed very useful when baseline measurements are available. eGFR remains useful when baseline sCr is not available or when large intervals between measurements are found.<br /> As Delanaye et al noted, virtually 100% of the variability in longitudinal eGFR is due to sCr, so we understand that the errors in eGFR can be (and usually are) greater than but cannot be less than those in sCr.

      X. 425: low analytical variation- if enzymatic methods are used<br /> Lee et al suggest that even the compensated Jaffe method provides some accuracy and reproducibility, which may allow longitudinal tracking of sCr even where more modern assays are as yet unavailable.

      Y. 428: avoid the use of “apparently”<br /> Done.

      Z. 430: reference 56 compares sCr and sCysC with creatinine clearance NOT with mGFR, this does not prove that mGFR has greater physiologic variability. Creatinine clearance is known to be highly variable (partially due to two sources of variability in the measurements of creatinine: serum and urine).<br /> The creatinine clearance is another form of mGFR, and our understanding of it begins with the units: if the clearance or removal of creatinine were being measured, the units should be umoles/minute, but they are mL/min. “Clearance” is an old concept coined by physiologists to describe many substances, such as urea, glucose, amino acids, and other metabolites. Since creatinine is mostly not reabsorbed and is only slightly secreted in the tubules, the “creatinine clearance” became a measure of GFR. The ratio of urine Creatinine to serum Creatinine is simply a factor for how much the original glomerular filtrate then gets concentrated (typically about 100-fold) by the kidney. Since the assumption is that the timed urine was once the rate of glomerular filtrate production, the creatinine clearance is a measure of the GFR.

      Creatinine clearance has some inaccuracies based on tubular secretion, but also has some advantages: blood concentrations are essentially constant during urine collection, no need for exogenous administration, and reliable measurements in serum and urine. The methods that we often call mGFR also have problems, including unverifiable assumptions about distributions, dilutional effects, and others we cite in the text. None of these are direct measures of GFR. Due to changes in remaining nephrons, even true GFR itself is not strictly proportional to the lost number of functional nephrons, which seems the ultimate measure of CKD that Rule et al estimated from biopsy material.

      AA. The limitations of sCr for screening should also be discussed: differences in performance and acceptability between enzymatic and Jaffe methods (still widely used in certain parts of the world), the effect of standardizing creatinine assays (an important initiative but one that could also produce shifts in results around the time of standardization- see cases), low InIx means that once-off values are exceedingly difficult to interpret, is a single raised creatinine value predictive (or should there be evidence of chronicity): similarly are there effects from protein rich meals, etc (The influence of a cooked-meat meal on estimated glomerular filtration rate. Annals of Clinical Biochemistry. 2007;44(1):35-42. doi:10.1258/000456307779595995)<br /> We have added discussion of additional references on reproducibility of sCr assays and discuss dietary meat and, in Part Three, possible dietary kidney toxins.

      CONCLUSION<br /> BB. The discussion recommends using SCr above eGFR while the conclusion recommends the NKF-ASN eGFR for use in pre-CKD and ASC charts. While the use of both together in a complementary fashion is understandable- this needs to be congruent with the discussion, aims and results.<br /> We have rewritten this section. We would welcome any further recommendations.

      Cyril O. Burke III, MD, FACP

    1. On 2020-04-21 09:07:53, user Maria wrote:

      At last, bravi! In Italy now they cannot say more that " coronavirus in the air" is a fake news. They ignore that humidity surrounding the membrane of the virus preserves its dimensional stability and integrity, as elementar chemistry teaches. Now I suggest to test the infectivity of Sars.CoV2 under different conditions of relative humidity of air. Since a low relative humidity favours the evaporation of water from the virus surface, I predict that the persistence of the virus decreases.

    1. On 2020-04-22 12:29:26, user rupesh chaturvedi wrote:

      Well immunity is outcome of humoral immune response. In these model authors assume that all the subjects infected with virus would generate a sustainable and durable IgG response. Where is data? Do we have data to show after infection how much immunity is generated? <br /> Please see a recent study from China. If 30% do not have antibody response then the at best case we will reach below 70%. I do not not if that will be really a Herd Immunity.<br /> Biological phenomena based models need to adjust the dynamics for the variables of biological process. A linear models should not be used to make policy decision unless backed up by understanding of biological events.<br /> Rupesh

    1. On 2020-04-22 14:52:42, user Philippe BROUQUI wrote:

      This unpublished paper raises serious doubts about the scientific value of research

      Missing data <br /> This is a retrospective study on medical records carried out on 12 health care centers in the Ile de France. There is no missing data on the 19 basic variables out of the 181 patients followed in these centers which is remarkable when known that the main drawback of retrospective studies is precisely the loss of information. This is important because it can skew the reported balance in both groups. For example, it seems unlikely that the "Child B liver cirrhosis or more yes/no" data was found in retrospect in all computerized medical records in this study. It probably lacks the "I don't know." This casts doubt on the reality of the retrospective nature of the data collection.

      Inclusion criteria O2 to 2l<br /> This criterion is in line with the HCSP's recommendation and included in Decree No. 2020-337. However we see oxygen was at 2l/mn in 50% of patients with extremes of 2 to 4L/mn which appears to be more of a criterion of inclusion adapted to the law than clinical reality.

      Excluding patients who received HCQ 48 hours after inclusion.<br /> But above all, we have been be surprised by the fact that among the control group there are in fact 8 patients out of 97 who received hydroxychloroquine but after 48 hours. In the final analysis they are removed from this control group. This is a scientific misconduct because these patients should have been included in the treaties and not in the controls.

      This likely changes the results and may even be the balance of groups in terms of comorbidity

    1. On 2020-06-25 15:16:45, user dottore b wrote:

      "Dexamethasone reduced deaths by one-third in patients receiving invasive

      mechanical ventilation (29.0% vs. 40.7%, RR 0.65 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.82];

      p<0.001)" is misleading as this is an 11% decrease in the death rate. It's like saying the death rate went from 2% to 1% and trumpeting a "50% reduction in the rate of death".

      For those interested in a very good discussion of this trial from Dr Dan Griffin an intensivist at Columbia, this is a great link and every practitioner should be a TWIV listener

      https://www.microbe.tv/twiv...

    1. On 2023-11-12 16:14:24, user Julian Gough wrote:

      We have noted that in a small number of cases this work is being cited in the literature as a positive GWAS association for the ERAP2 gene, however we would like to be clear that we are making no such claim, and urge authors to take care in citing this work. We are pleased that for the majority of citations authors have not misrepresented the findings.

      Analysis of subsequent genetic datasets for COVID-19 mortality [not yet published] could suggest that risk factors (reported here and elsewhere) are different at different points in time, as the virus itself has mutated, medical care has evolved, vaccination has been introduced and population vulnerability and exposure has changed. Therefore we also ask readers to take note that the conditions under which the (very early) data collected by UKbiobank during the first wave of the pandemic -- analysed in this work -- may be very different from present, future or past conditions during other waves of infection.

    2. On 2020-07-07 14:02:12, user David Curtis wrote:

      I have some concerns about rs150892504.

      According to ExAC it is rare in Europeans but has an allele frequency of 0.04 in Ashkenazi Jews. <br /> https://gnomad.broadinstitu...<br /> https://gnomad.broadinstitu...

      Likewise, it has an allele frequency of 0.03 or 0.04 in the IBD exomes:<br /> https://ibd.broadinstitute....

      This raises the possibility that the results you obtain may be due to some kind of population stratifcation which has not been adequately corrected for.

    1. On 2020-07-06 15:38:39, user Alexander Pearlman wrote:

      why is placebo sterile saline soln.--and not formulated with lipids as the mRNA-LNP (scrambled) drug product? is this a safety concern? or expect immunog. sig. from a scrambled construct?

    1. On 2020-07-08 18:28:20, user Paul Gordon wrote:

      Hi, thanks for posting. Have the new Italian genomes described been posted to a public repository? A quick search of the paper and both GenBank/GISAID didn't reveal these identifiers or entries matching the metadata provided in Table S1. Thanks!

    1. On 2024-06-16 14:15:45, user Praba wrote:

      Dear Authors, this paper is interesting. Congratulations to all authors. Could you please give complete details about the FnCas9 purification (How much vol of culture was used to purify the proteins that was shown in Suppl Fig 9 and what was the yield obtained at the end. These information are not trivial and they are important for the researchers who follow the paper. Hope you will append the details.

    1. On 2020-07-12 18:19:53, user Doug Vaughan wrote:

      Very interesting study. PAI-1 provides a site of convergence for risk (age, obesity, diabetes) and mechanisms driving thrombosis (inflammation, activated renin-angiotensin system, endothelial dysfunction) in patients with COVID-19. Failure of the endogenous clot-dissolving system is most likely a key contributor to morbidity and mortality as demonstrated here. Just last week, we secured an IND from the FDA to begin testing of a novel orally-active inhibitor of PAI-1 (TM5614) in high-risk patients with COVID-19. This Phase 2 study will enable the first use of this drug in USA.

    1. On 2025-03-30 21:44:30, user Simon binakter48 wrote:

      This paper has been published to an IEEE conference.

      2023 26th International Conference on Computer and Information Technology (ICCIT), 13-15 December, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh

      doi: 10.1109/ICCIT60459.2023.10441480

    1. On 2020-07-17 11:16:47, user ADisquietingSuggestion wrote:

      This paper puts the global burden of COVID-19 at 4.3 million YLL. The WHO tables on disease burden put this in context: all of the top 20 diseases by YLL are above 25 million. How would you characterize this comparison?

    1. On 2020-07-18 00:08:26, user dottore b wrote:

      As an emergency physician turned co-voligist (not my choice!), this paper is one of the single most important papers of the year. Period. We need to get governments, academic institutions, payer providers and even venture capital in public-private partnerships deploying this system today

    1. On 2020-07-19 05:03:49, user HarryDeedra Hodges wrote:

      The tweet storm is quite odd. Seems like a mini-army, particularly in Spanish moving the story along. Others seems quite happy to spread the negative results. The patients seem evenly matched, but nearly all needed O2 supports implying quite ill, more HCQ patients were > 70 than the control. Dosage was 1600mg loading, 400 mg daily for 9 days, no mention of zinc. No adverse effects noted. The dosage is only slightly higher than the evolving standard which includes zinc. The study shows HCQ without zinc not useful in critically ill patients.

    1. On 2020-07-19 22:45:26, user George wrote:

      " Lettuce consumption increased COVID-19 mortality."<br /> If you lack the commonsense to see how ridiculous that is, at least put it in non-causal language next time.

    1. On 2020-07-20 15:23:57, user Gerald Williams wrote:

      I have followed your work since April NBC story.

      You said you followed the Zelenko protocol (HCQ+Zn+Azithromycin) and just added Ivermectin in order to get the great results.

      In a prior version of your article I recall reading that you had HCQ & Azithromycin in a large % of the Ivermectin group as well as in some of the "usual care" group. You never mention critical Zinc in your article. If I was reviewing, I would want to know the details even if they may make the study more "messy". Your results are already very significant in that adding Ivermectin to the Zelenko cocktail extends efficacy to many days later.

      There is no need at this time to kill placebo group by having a DB RCT.<br /> What is needed is to repeat protocol where the the control group exactly follows the Zelenko protocol (now in preprint or via Yale's Dr. Risch review in Am. J. Epidemiology) vs the Zelenko protocol + Ivermectin. You should reference.

      It is not just you, but every article on treatment should document # of days since first symptoms and # of days since hospitalization (if former isn't known).

      The current hypothesis is that Zelenko protocol works great up to 5 days of symptoms and sometimes up to 7 days. Your addition of Ivermectin extends that window into many days after hospital admission, It is no coincidence that in the less severe group you did not find significance because the Zelenko protocol was adequate (except some patients didn't receive full Zelenko protocol.

      Your protocol makes Remdesivir obsolete, dangerous and too expensive.

      You can follow me and others on Twitter to continue discussion,.<br /> It is shameful that Big Pharma is suppressing this very important finding.

      Ideally the Zelenko protocol should be followed at first signs of symptoms and if fails, around day 6, can add Ivermectin to cocktail and repeat (in outpatient or hospital setting).<br /> As you know, Doxycycline (doesn't interact w/HCQ) can be substituted for Azithromycin, so no need for outpatient cardiac monitoring. Perhaps even use the 4 drug cocktail in outpatient setting from start, if continues to prove safe.

    1. On 2020-07-20 17:17:47, user JayTe wrote:

      In the Annals of Internal Medicine, the authors demonstrated in the research article, Cloth Masks and Surgical Masks Ineffective in filtering SARS-COV-2 in COVID-19 Patients, Oberg and Brousseau demonstrated that surgical masks did not exhibit adequate filter performance performance against aerosols measuring 0.9, 2.0 and 3.1 um in diameter. As well Lee and his colleges showed that particles 0.04 to 0.2 um particles can penetrate surgical masks. If we assume that the SARS-COV2 particle has a similar size to the SARS-COV1 particle even surgical masks are unlikely to effective filter the virus. In this study the primary means of the spread was via coughing. Now the author of this article claims that it is primarily via contact or droplets!?! If a person has respiratory issues due to covid-19, would it not make sense that they would be coughing? If you have persons that are not ill or asymptomatic then given the existing evidence, there is little to no chance of an individual becoming ill by the transmission of the SARS-COV2 virus. Doing a meta-study where one chooses studies that conform to their particular perspective and avoids the probability of transmission via coughing doesn't help the debate on the value of masks.

      It also excludes the negative effect of wearing masks which in a 2015 study in the BMJ: “A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers“ highlighted that not only are these masks 100% ineffective at reducing the spread of COVID-19, but they can actually harm you since the moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection.

    1. On 2020-07-21 13:22:43, user Evolution 321 wrote:

      Preprint implies an intention to formerly publish at a later time. Where has this manuscript been submitted for peer review? What journal was this intended for?

    1. On 2020-07-22 03:42:29, user Steven Hall wrote:

      I would love to know was there any determination as to the best wearable. <br /> I run a Circulation Clinic and We have all of our Clients use wearable to help us get the best results. You feed back would be very helpful. Blessings Steven Hall Director of the Fountain of Youth Circulation Clinics 425-770-9466 https://happyheartclinic.com/

    1. On 2020-06-22 23:00:16, user Marcus Quintilian wrote:

      Some iportant words are missing: "Our machine learning analysis also showed that the two groups were linearly separable. .....incubation of COVID-19 along with previous statistical analysis. "

    1. On 2020-07-23 15:48:06, user Joseph Psotka wrote:

      a couple of factors you did not take into account: 1. Florida's population is much smaller than the official one because about a third of all "residents" leave in April and May, when it gets seriously hot. 2.) Maryland and Virginia suffer from contagion from New York which increased their Re in the peak months, so your model probably underestimated as New York declined.

    1. On 2020-06-24 02:12:28, user Nobuhiro Sho wrote:

      Non-pharmcological intervention such as wearing mask is the key strategy for novel cotagious respiratory disease. Because drug’s efficacy is not adequately proven yet. This article shows the importance of masks for preventing the transmission of covid-19.<br /> Every contagious disease is multiplicative.<br /> As everyone is wearing mask, it reduces the huge amount of infection.

    1. On 2020-06-24 12:15:40, user Ayse Balat wrote:

      I would like to congratulate the authors introducing such a beneficial model for the diagnosis of erosive-vesiculobullous diseases. I am sure it would be one of the great methods for clinicians. Professor Ayse Balat

    2. On 2020-07-04 10:35:54, user Vincent Fokker wrote:

      I was reading your publication and I had some questions: (1) how does individual predicted probability work? is this based on certainty that it is this type of cell (as with resnet ?) and what thresholds are used? are different thresholds used for different cells it detects? and how did you define your final metrics?

      Definitely seems like an awesome solution to bridging the gap of knowledge and interpretation of medical personnel in assisting them to practice their job more informed and efficient. Keep up the good work!

    1. On 2020-07-24 23:05:36, user Guest wrote:

      IFR is a good thing to measure. I’d rather concentrate on Excess Deaths.

      Total Deaths from any cause are way up. There is a second spike forming (first was mostly NY city)

      Click: “Weekly Number of Deaths by Age,” then “Update Dashboard”

      Select a Jurisdiction or Age group if you wish to change the chart

      See the Weekly Deaths by jurisdiction and age group over the previous 5 years (gray) & this year (red)

      Title: <br /> Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nv...

    1. On 2020-07-26 11:16:28, user Rosemary TATE wrote:

      This is a very interesting paper. However, I'm not convinced of the conclusions that the lower rate of test and hospitalisation are due to gender bias. It could be just that females have milder symptoms. And indeed the analysis shows that their symptom profile is different. Have the authors considered carrying out a multivariable analysis to adjust for some of these?<br /> I would suggest changing the title and moderating the conclusions. Incidentally, this is a cross-sectional study, and this should be mentioned somewhere. I would suggest replacing the term "big data" in the title with something more meaningful - as suggested in the StROBE guidelines. where is the checklist, could you please upload.

    1. On 2020-07-26 13:57:22, user catcarouser wrote:

      I’ve read the comments criticizing the study. Since Norway adopted the study standards and opened gyms, the infection rate there — well, look it up yourselves. This has been a success.

    1. On 2020-07-26 17:35:19, user Dude Dujmovic wrote:

      Very interesting paper but I think emphasis on waning humoral immunity is misplaced in most recent papers. This infection will be controlled by memory lymphocytes not by present antibodies. .

    1. On 2020-06-30 11:48:25, user J. M. Groh wrote:

      Hello, thanks for your important paper. May I suggest clarifying in the abstract the numerical effects that you saw, esp. reductions in the death rate in the treated group vs. controls (page 4, 5% mortality in the treated group vs. 45% in the control group, for groups of ~20 and ~50 patients). That is an impressive effect size. Thank you!

    1. On 2020-07-01 00:05:45, user ??? wrote:

      Dear Colleagues

      I'm Jaehun Jung, the corresponding author of the manuscript.

      Our manuscript was published after peer-review as follows.

      'Ji W, Huh K, Kang M, Hong J, Bae GH, Lee R, Na Y, Choi H, Gong SY, Choi YH, Ko KP, Im JS, Jung J. Effect of Underlying Comorbidities on the Infection and Severity of COVID-19 in Korea: a Nationwide Case-Control Study. J Korean Med Sci. 2020 Jun;35(25):e237. https://doi.org/10.3346/jkm...

      Our published version have the following changes, please refer to the newly published paper.

      1) Database changes<br /> -HIRA combines epidemiological investigations data from Korea's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and extends the database until May 15. Our published version are based on this recent database. Therefore, the results of the pre-print version and the printed version are quite different.

      2) Case definition and comorbidity identification

      The pre-print version was able to check past history of more than 5 years. However, due to the expansion of the DB, only the past history can be confirmed within the past three years, and there has been a methodological adjustment.

    1. On 2020-08-03 13:49:53, user Michael wrote:

      You may be interested in our research at the optimized boarding of passenger groups in times of COVID-19. We find that the consideration of groups in a pandemic scenario will significantly contribute to a faster boarding (reduction of time by about 60%) and less transmission risk (reduced by 85%), which reaches the level of boarding times in pre-pandemic scenarios.

      The preprint publication “Analytical approach to solve the problem of aircraft passenger boarding during the coronavirus pandemic” is available here:<br /> https://www.researchgate.ne....

      Additional information about common passenger boarding in times of COVID-19 are available here:<br /> Evaluation of Aircraft Boarding Scenarios Considering Reduced Transmissions Risks (https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1... "https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/13/5329)").

    1. On 2020-07-03 20:49:23, user Brooke wrote:

      "Asian" and "Other" are not appropriate ethnic categories. People of Chinese heritage are considered Asian. If you do not include Chinese people as Asians, then this ethnic category should be renamed "South Asian" (which includes people from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc.). As for applying the term "other" to an ethnic group, this term literally "others" them. It may require more words to describe, but the more appropriate category for these participants would be "participants if more than one ethnicity or an ethnicity not listed in the survey." Although this tweet thread is about gender, the same gist applies here about ethnicity: https://twitter.com/theorig...

    1. On 2020-07-05 17:14:25, user Research Explained wrote:

      Unfortunately this study includes a great deal of speculation and very little evidence to back up the claims. The sample sizes were far too small and the primary outcome measure lacks statistical significance. The study also does not address the obvious confounding factor of the large health disparities between African Americans and other groups in the United States.

      Check out our general public friendly explanation of this study:<br /> https://www.researchexplain...

    1. On 2020-07-05 17:53:43, user Babak Navi wrote:

      The final version of this study was published in JAMA Neurology on July 2, 2020 and can be found at doi:10.1001/jamaneurol.2020.2730.

    1. On 2020-07-05 18:52:28, user Kamran Kadkhoda wrote:

      Neigher Abbott nor the authors used well pedigreed serum samples from patients recently infected with common coronaviruses . this means the specificity arm of the study is very well biased and essentially hundred percent is neither mathematically nor statistically possible.