6,062 Matching Annotations
  1. May 2026
    1. On 2026-03-27 14:32:15, user Peter Ellis wrote:

      If you can validate this finding by some other method then this would be a truly remarkable finding. The Y chromosome contains numerous genes that are essential for spermatogenesis - it should not be possible for any cell lineage lacking the Y to give rise to mature sperm. The only possible point at which the Y could be lost (or Y-bearing cells could be lost) would be post-meiotic.

      Is it possible instead that there is some alteration in chromatin packaging which somehow selectively affects the extraction efficiency of Y chromosomal DNA sequences?

      Alternatively, how exactly is the calculation of Y content being done? If this is an aggregate measurement from bulk DNA, is it possible that rather than there being cells that have fully lost the Y, there is a mix of cell lineages present, each of which has a range of different Y microdeletions present?

      Given the known essentiality of the Y for sperm production, I think you will find it challenging to get this past peer review without some kind of per-cell analysis, which could be FISH-based or single-cell genotyping. In either case you'd need very high throughput to have statistical power to detect 1% of cells with LOY

    1. On 2026-03-26 15:44:14, user Peter J. Wolf wrote:

      As both a researcher and community cat caregiver, I’m very pleased to see this work being conducted!

      I was rather surprised to see the relatively low instances of secondary traumatic stress (i.e., 47% moderate, 10% high) reported in this study. I imagine this is the result of using the thresholds proposed by Stamm (2010). You might consider repeating your analysis using the revised thresholds proposed by De La Rosa et al. (2018).

      Literature cited<br /> De La Rosa, G. M., Webb-Murphy, J. A., Fesperman, S. F., & Johnston, S. L. (2018). Professional quality of life normative benchmarks. Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, 10, 225–228. https://doi.org/10.1037/tra0000263

      Stamm, B. H. (2010). The Concise ProQOL Manual (2nd ed.). https://proqol.org/proqol-manual

    1. On 2026-01-12 13:02:28, user Ryan wrote:

      The plot in figure 2 is great. However, providing a supplemental with the actual HR of testing would be helpful for others to do a tipping point analysis of your results and confirm the testing effect is or is not strong enough to nullify your results. This would greatly enhance the reproducibility of your research.

    2. On 2026-01-12 13:11:20, user Ryan wrote:

      I recommend leaving an HR for testing positivity or adding the positivity rate as adjusted variable, this will allow testing level to be compared and not just testing timing on the results. From the look of it hin the log ratios over time, it does not look like it will completely wash out the signal, however, it is hard to tell with giving the actual values.

    3. On 2025-12-12 17:45:56, user Ceejay wrote:

      Line 293: "This study’s inability to find a protective influence of influenza..." I think what is meant is protective influence *of vaccination* on influenza

    1. On 2026-03-30 13:27:10, user Sverre wrote:

      This is a very cool article, thanks for sharing it! Currently planning a kinda similar analysis. I just want to point out that Norwegian middle school GPA is not a 10-year cumulative measure: it just contains grades from year 10 (and a few from year 9).

    1. On 2026-03-29 15:01:54, user Ian Buller wrote:

      Quick note that your citation of the abstract by Brown & Vo et al. (2022; DOI: 10.1158/1538-7755.DISP21-PO-192) is now published as a manuscript in JNCI by Vo & Brown et al. (2025; DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djaf066). I am a co-author on both.

    1. On 2026-03-25 06:58:19, user Eugenio Forbes wrote:

      As part of the methodology, did anyone diagnose equipment and cables, plot the recordings to verify that it's not mostly noise?

    1. On 2026-03-25 02:47:47, user Tin Pham wrote:

      This paper could have been ameliorated by specifying the target trial specifications (eg. eligibility criteria, treatment and outcome, follow-up, causal contrasts) and the emulated analogues, according to the TARGET guideline (Cashin et al, 2025). Also, I suggest some sensitivity analyses be done (e.g. varying the lag time, different model specifications for calculating the propensity score, ITT vs PP treatment estimates) to verify the robustness of the findings.<br /> _____<br /> References: <br /> Cashin AG, Hansford HJ, Hernán MA, et al. Transparent Reporting of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial—The TARGET Statement. JAMA. 2025;334(12):1084–1093. doi:10.1001/jama.2025.13350

    1. On 2026-03-23 19:50:14, user Neville Calleja wrote:

      There is clearly a number of confounders here and the way it is written and summarised in the abstract does not give enough credit to this. The link with pre-existing EBV infection, potential infection before the vaccine took full effect etc has not been well described. A number of subset analyses have been carried out, which may border on data dredging, rather than formal multivariate analyses. Also clearly the involvement of a major antivax advocate has meant that the study has been highjacked.

    1. On 2026-03-23 18:21:15, user Evolutionary Health Group wrote:

      We at the Evolutionary Health Group ( https://evoheal.github.io/ ) enjoyed this paper. Here are our highlights:

      The saliva-based work presented here shows convincing equivalence to blood tests across multiple pathogens, cohorts, and age groups. The attention to real-world validation shows that the method is platform-level, opening the possibility of applying this type of assay in other contexts.

      Because saliva samples are self-collected, non-invasive, and stable, the authors demonstrate that it's possible to capture the daily resolution of important pathogens, addressing a major limitation in epidemiology where true dynamics can't be captured due to infrequent sampling.

      Blood-based studies frequently under-sample children, older adults, rural populations, and low-resource populations. Saliva testing removes many of the cost, commute, and invasiveness barriers and helps create more representative datasets for use in epidemiological inference and public health policy.

      Professionally collected blood samples benefit from consistent quality. Self-collected samples are more likely to suffer a loss of quality due to improper collection techniques. We would be interested to know how sample quality compares when collections are truly independent of any professional guidance.

    1. On 2026-03-14 00:41:31, user Lisa DeTora wrote:

      What an interesting study! I'd be curious about your views on more open-ended questions users might ask of LLMs about specific vaccines. I also wonder if you have advice for public health agencies or healthcare providers on using LLMs in this setting

      One small point: the vaccine hesitancy reference is pre-COVID. My understanding is that this problem has been somewhat worse since the pandemic, making the problems you seek to address even more critical.

    1. On 2026-03-13 17:56:20, user NomosLogic wrote:

      Important preprint out of Johns Hopkins — LLMs evaluated as a diagnostic safety net for correcting physician errors.<br /> The right question to ask alongside it: for which clinical decisions is "better probabilistic reasoning" the correct architectural answer, and for which decisions is determinism required?<br /> Drug-gene interactions have correct answers. They are computable. An LLM that reasons well about a CYP2C19 finding is still approximating what a deterministic rules engine computes exactly — every time, auditably, without session-level variance.<br /> The safety net shouldn't be a better guesser. It should be a system that cannot get the answer wrong.

    1. On 2026-03-10 21:27:15, user Abdul Harif wrote:

      Training a 160-input multilayer perceptron on a cohort of only 35 unique participants is highly prone to overfitting, even with the inclusion of dropout layers and early stopping. Also, the control group only provided a single breath specimen at one time point, whereas the patient group provided breath specimens before treatment and again 6 to 8 weeks later. This introduces unmitigated temporal confounding variables, such as seasonal changes or device drift over the 8-week period, which the control group does not account for.

    1. On 2026-03-09 13:24:18, user David Glasser, MD wrote:

      All authors are equity owners of the system studied. Were these the same experts that reviewed discordant cases and sided with the system they owned almost 4 times as often as the board certified clinicians who made the initial assessments?

      Ethical review was by the company that markets the system studied.

      MAJOR sources of bias and conflicts of interest here. I give them credit for being forthright about disclosing them.

    2. On 2026-02-20 13:58:16, user Peer Reviewer wrote:

      We requested the materials needed to reproduce the main results in this preprint. Although the manuscript states that “all data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request,” a request from our group did not receive a response, and the requested materials have not been made available for independent replication.

    1. On 2026-02-27 17:03:20, user Deepak Modi wrote:

      The NGS dataset in this study is available with IBDC Study Accession: INRP000591 and INSDC (SRA) Project Accession: PRJEB108860

    1. On 2026-02-22 17:29:44, user Sue Hewitt wrote:

      How is it possible to review the supplementary tables, which do not seem to be included in the preprint? Will this research be submitted for peer review?

    1. On 2026-02-21 03:18:58, user Naoki Watanabe wrote:

      We are pleased to announce that this preprint has undergone peer review and has been published in a formal journal. Please refer to the final version of the article.

      Watanabe N, Watari T, Otsuka Y. Desulfovibrio Bacteremia in Patients with Abdominal Infections, Japan, 2020–2025. Emerg Infect Dis. 2026 Feb [cited 2026 Feb 21];32(2). Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid3202.251581

    1. On 2026-02-02 05:15:23, user S. Miyamoto wrote:

      Now published in Commun Med.

      Miyamoto S, Numakura K, Kinoshita R, Arashiro T, Takahashi H, Hibino H, Hayakawa M, Kanno T, Sataka A, Sakamoto R, Ainai A, Arai S, Suzuki M, Yoneoka D, Wakita T, Suzuki T. Serum anti-nucleocapsid antibody correlates of protection from SARS-CoV-2 re-infection regardless of symptoms or immune history. Commun Med (Lond). 2025 May 15;5(1):172. doi: 10.1038/s43856-025-00894-8. PMID: 40374831; PMCID: PMC12081900.

    1. On 2026-01-31 09:06:49, user Chris Morgan wrote:

      I understand from the Methods that the background population were required to have at least 12 months registration prior to each observation year and that PD events prior to 2007 were excluded. I am therefore assuming PD patients had to have the first diagnosis after this 12 months as a wash-in to ascertain true incident cases. As this is not explicit in the text and noting the higher incidence in the early years of the study, could the author just confirm this please

    1. On 2026-01-29 02:57:44, user Vanessa Haase wrote:

      Correction to my previous comment: The HQ calculations for heart rate increase are scientifically invalid. Heart rate increase from nicotinic agonists is the intended pharmacological effect, not an adverse outcome. The authors use an ARfD based on heart rate increases, but HQ methodology is designed to assess adverse health effects. Pharmacological receptor activation that produces the desired stimulant effect cannot be characterized as a toxicological hazard. By this logic, caffeine would have unacceptable HQs for increased alertness.<br /> Valid cardiovascular risk assessment requires identifying doses causing actual adverse outcomes like sustained tachycardia leading to arrhythmias, hypertensive crises, or cardiovascular events in vulnerable populations. The physiological response that constitutes the purpose of product use is not a safety threshold exceedance.<br /> The conclusions about exceeding safety thresholds rest on this fundamental mischaracterization of pharmacology as toxicity. This undermines legitimate regulatory concerns about unregulated nicotine analogues. Meaningful risk assessment requires identification of true adverse cardiovascular outcomes, not normal receptor-mediated responses.

    1. On 2026-01-26 18:38:43, user Johanna Karla Lehmann wrote:

      No single factor that could be associated with a deterioration in post-COVID-19 symptoms after a SARS-CoV2 vaccine dose was investigated (objectives, title, primary outcome). Factors that could have been considered include quantitative changes in spike production, ACE2 expression, Ang II and Ang 1-7 levels, immunological/ inflammatory markers or changes in the severity/extent of comorbidity (blood pressure behaviour, changes in blood circulation, glucose/lipid metabolism, blood clotting, etc.) and smoking habits.<br /> A deterioration and/or increase in symptoms comes as no surprise. Both the infection and the desired acquired immunity through a COVID-19 vaccination (vaccine indication) require SARS-CoV2 spike antigens (RBD of the spike S1 subunit). These are known to react with ACE2 and trigger pathophysiologically undesirable specific organ dysfunctions and symptoms via an Ang II increase and other reactions (bradykinin increase, etc.). For long Covid, an influence of spikes on nicotinic acetylcholine receptor reactions in the periphery and in the CNS is also being discussed. This was evident in the symptoms of coughing (probably dry cough!) and concentration problems, both of which increased significantly after vaccination.<br /> Vaccination (inclusion criterion) and coughing (a symptom!) were named as the ‘identified only factors’ for a worsening of post-COVID-19 symptoms. Neither of these can be described as factors underlying the worsening. The different risks associated with specific vaccines (mRNA, adenovirus, protein-based, attenuated) should be carefully examined in a representative, controlled, comprehensive clinical study.

    1. On 2026-01-26 15:25:00, user Veronica Ruiz wrote:

      In response to the question Should antigen-antibody rapid diagnostic tests be used to detect acute HIV infection? I believe that use of fourth-generation rapid tests should continue and be encouraged simply because reduce the window period, and it always should be incorporated into a complete diagnostic and confirmatory algorithm. Like other HIV diagnostic tools, its true usefulness lies in the interpretation framed within an algorithm, and I believe that the vast majority of people who work in the field of diagnosis understand this, and it is clearly outlined in all the guides or recommendations on the subject. In other words, fourth-generation rapid tests alone do not guarantee the detection of acute infection, but in combination of counseling applied to high-risk populations including continuous monitoring and application of other tests including NAT and Ac/Agp24 combo for the detection of the acute viremia phase and the information provided to users can considerably improve the chance of early detection.<br /> As has already been expressed in other comments, there is a huge bias in comparing studies that use different tests, including some that were not approved for use and whose sensitivity increased in updated versions, as well as including mixed populations of very different types in which the percentage of incidence of HIV infection is not comparable.<br /> However, I believe that the greatest bias in the sensitivity calculation is the failure to take into account the appearance of different markers throughout the evolution of the infection, a topic already described by Fiebig in Fiebig EW, Wright DJ, Rawal BD, et al. Dynamics of HIV viremia and antibody seroconversion in plasma donors: implications for diagnosis and staging of primary HIV infection. AIDS 2003; 17(13):1871–1879. <br /> This review conflates detection methods using tests that detect different markers (Table I) related to the time of infection. For example when compared to a NAT test, which has a shorter window period, a fourth-rate rapid test won't have the same diagnostic scope, just like tests that exclusively detect the p24 antigen, whose detection threshold is well-proven to be much lower than any rapid test.<br /> Is also a well-known and reported fact that fourth-generation rapid tests do not perform as well as instrumental methods, but is an inherent limitation of method. Therefore, comparisons should be made using methods with at least a similar detection threshold and window period.The discussion is always interesting and enriching, and I will seek to contact the authors to continue it.

    2. On 2026-01-23 13:21:44, user Dr Ali Johnson Onoja wrote:

      The analysis aggregates performance data from a heterogeneous mix of fourth-generation HIV rapid tests, including research-use-only products (e.g., SD Bioline HIV Ag/Ab Combo), discontinued devices (Combo RT, D4G, E4G, Geenius HIV-1/2, Bio-Rad GS HIV Combo), the FDA-approved U.S. version of Determine HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab Combo, and the WHO-prequalified Alere HIV Combo/Determine HIV Early Detect. In the Nigerian context, where national HIV testing algorithms approved by the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) and NACA restrict use to WHO-prequalified assays, pooling data from obsolete or non-programmatic tests without stratification by brand, version, or regulatory status may misrepresent the true performance of diagnostics currently available or deployable in Nigeria.<br /> Assumption of Class-Dependent Performance and Its Programmatic Implications in Nigeria<br /> The review assumes that diagnostic performance is determined primarily by test class (i.e., fourth-generation Ag/Ab RDTs), without sufficient consideration of infection kinetics, targeted biomarkers, assay technology, or specimen type. In Nigeria—where HIV testing is predominantly conducted using finger-prick whole blood in community, primary healthcare, and outreach settings—test performance during acute HIV infection (AHI) is heavily influenced by the timing of presentation and the biological stage of infection. Failure to account for Fiebig stage–specific detectability risks overgeneralizing performance expectations and may undermine rational decisions about where and how fourth-generation RDTs could add value within Nigerian testing strategies.<br /> Non-Standard Definitions of Acute HIV Infection and Relevance to Nigerian Epidemiology<br /> Definitions of AHI vary widely across included studies, spanning multiple Fiebig stages (I–III or I–IV), each characterised by distinct biomarker kinetics (HIV RNA -> p24 antigen -> antibody). In the Nigerian epidemic—where individuals often present late for testing but key populations and high-incidence sub-groups may test during early infection—averaging sensitivity across biologically heterogeneous stages obscures the specific window (notably p24-positive Fiebig II–III) in which Ag/Ab RDTs are theoretically expected to improve case detection. This limits the applicability of pooled sensitivity estimates for informing targeted AHI screening strategies in Nigeria, including among key populations, STI clinics, and PrEP entry points.<br /> Influence of Older Devices and Study Design on Applicability to Nigeria<br /> Lower pooled sensitivity estimates are largely driven by evaluations of older diagnostic devices and laboratory-based case–control studies. Approximately two-thirds of included studies rely on non-consecutive sampling, small AHI sample sizes (<100), and archived specimens—designs known to introduce spectrum and selection bias. For Nigeria, where HIV testing occurs primarily in real-world service delivery settings with operational constraints, such estimates may understate the potential performance of newer WHO-prequalified fourth-generation RDTs when integrated appropriately into national algorithms. Consequently, these findings should be interpreted cautiously when informing policy decisions, guideline updates, or pilot implementation of AHI screening in Nigeria.

    3. On 2025-12-24 04:25:36, user Dr Micah Matiang'i wrote:

      If the role of Ag/ab RDTs is not well understood in resource limited settings , then there is need to do more population based studies before WHO reaches a conclusion

    4. On 2025-12-19 17:14:16, user Cesar Ugarte wrote:

      The preprint by Fajardo et al. addresses an important evidence gap regarding the utility of combined antigen–antibody tests for detecting acute HIV infection. Although the authors adopt a valuable global perspective, the interpretation and synthesis of the data would benefit from greater nuance to enhance clinical relevance. The authors' QUADAS-2 assessment shows High Risk of Bias regarding patient selection and Unclear Risk regarding the conduct of the index test. In diagnostic epidemiology, such findings are not just descriptive but also signal a huge spectrum effect and possible threshold bias. Therefore, the summary estimates presented in Figures 3 and 4 may reflect a statistical average of disparate clinical realities rather than a reliable indicator of test performance (for example in Figure 3 there are 10 studies with a sensitivity less than 10%, including some with 0%, so the evaluation in detail of these studies should be done to see if these studies can be combined with the other ones). Another issue is the inclusion of "obsolete" diagnostic platforms that have been withdrawn due to suboptimal performance. A sensitivity analysis or subgroup stratification should be restricted to tests currently on the market. This would enable the reader to distinguish between the historical evolution of the technology and the expected performance in contemporary clinical practice.

      The interpretation of diagnostic performance also should be addressed in detail. Whereas sensitivity and specificity have usually been considered "intrinsic" to a test (so doesn´t depends on disease prevalence), evidence suggests significant variation across clinical settings. The underlying epidemiological status and operator expertise can affect the test’s accuracy. Finally, I agree with the authors that real-world evidence on cost-effectiveness and implementation barriers is lacking. However, we should be very careful to avoid having a biased meta-analytic estimate that leads to the premature abandonment of "imperfect" but viable diagnostic solutions. In the case of acute HIV infection, for which early detection is critical to ART initiation and reduction of secondary transmission, interpretation of this evidence needs to balance statistical rigor against the urgent public health need for early diagnosis.

    5. On 2025-12-17 21:30:43, user Norman Moore wrote:

      We have contacted the authors of the article Should antigen-antibody rapid diagnostic tests be used to detect acute HIV infection? A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic performance by Fajardo et al. ( https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.14.25338004) . The primary limitation of this article is that it conflates the performance of 4th generation HIV tests that (1) were never launched, (2) that were earlier versions of tests that are no longer available in most parts of the world, and (3) tests that have received WHO pre-qualification (PQ), in a single analysis despite the known and significant differences in performance among them. This has resulted in lower performance representation of certain products over others. It would be more beneficial to the medical community to have a meta-analysis that includes HIV diagnostic tests that are both CE marked and have WHO PQ to maximize the real-world applicability of this systematic review.

    6. On 2025-12-13 03:02:23, user Missiani wrote:

      Title: Should antigen-antibody rapid diagnostic tests be used to detect acute HIV infection? A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic performance<br /> Authors: Emmanuel Fajardo, Céline Lastrucci1, Pascal Jolivet1, Magdalena DiChiara1, Carlota Baptista da Silva1, Busi Msimanga1, Anita Sands2, Cheryl Johnson1

      The authors systematically searched six databases for studies evaluating Ag/Ab RDTs vs laboratory reference standards in individuals aged >=18 months. Out of 53 studies from 24 countries, they documented a pooled sensitivity of Ag/Ab RDTs for AHI to be 48% (95% CI: 34–62) with specificity of 97% (95% CI: 84–100). They concluded that Ag/Ab RDTs appear to have limited ability to detect AHI, missing more than half of AHI cases<br /> They also documented analytical sensitivity (detection of p24 antigen) at 31%, and antibody detection at 15% which was too low.

      I have three main comments that can improve the programmatic application of this manuscript <br /> 1. The study is presented negatively and concludes “Detection of AHI using Ag/Ab RDTs remains a challenge” despite the effort made and resources used. The study oversimplifies highly variable diagnostic data and assumes similarity between the studies, ignoring that a sensitivity of 48% and a specificity of 97% means that half of the kits performed better and almost all were specific. In Table 2, the authors examined region, study settings, and design, population, specimen, etc., but did not examine the group of kits whose sensitivity and specificity exceeded the pooled values. By examining this group of kits, they will successfully address the title of the article (Should antigen-antibody rapid diagnostic tests be used to detect acute HIV infection). Omitting this subgroup analysis presents one dimension of the data. We recommend they include this analysis as a way to address the gaps.<br /> 2. The authors present the p24 and Ag/Ab as a standalone approach rather than a combined or multiplex kit to address early diagnosis during AHI, which will provide an opportunity in low-income countries to reduce transmission, improve linkage to care and clinical outcome. Based on their sensitivity of 48%, multiplexing the test would improve diagnosis by the same margin, which is a substantial gain. We recommend adding a paragraph on the impact of incorporating p24 into a multiplex platform. Because many diagnostic tests are now packaged as multiplex platforms, incorporating this perspective will give the title greater depth and better reflect current testing practices<br /> 3. Some test kits reviewed in the study are either obsolete, recalled, or never progressed beyond early pre-evaluation stages. This raises significant concerns about the validity and current use of the findings. Manufacturers may have already recognized the kits’ poor sensitivity and, as a result, chose not to move forward with full production. Without acknowledging the discontinued or preliminary status of these kits, the study’s conclusions risk being misleading since the kits are not on the market. Recognizing the actual status of these products is essential, as it directly affects how their findings should be interpreted and whether they can responsibly inform policy or implementation decisions.

    1. On 2026-01-26 09:10:28, user Gail Davey wrote:

      The Neglected Tropical Diseases considered by the 2021-25 Ethiopian National Strategic Plan ( https://espen.afro.who.int/sites/default/files/content/document/Third%20NTD%20national%20Strategic%20Plan%202021-2025_0.pdf ) include podoconiosis. This is also considered among the skin-NTDs by WHO. Extensive information is available on the distribution and impact of podoconiosis, which has a greater burden than LF in Ethiopia. It would be helpful to include mention of this conditon within the manuscript.

    1. On 2026-01-23 19:44:39, user David Laursen wrote:

      Thanks for an interesting preprint, which I hope to read more carefully soon. I am not particularly well versed within causal inference so apologies if the question is unclear.

      I noticed your warning against conditioning on post-treatment belief (since it is a collider). Just wondering, does this reservation extend more generally to cautioning against testing for success of blinding at all, regardless of doing a stratified analysis of treatment effects by belief (in an estimation setting, this would probably be estimating differences in beliefs between arms, either with conventional 2x2 measures, or blinding indices). This appears to be a central discussion in many fields, so would appreciate your reflections.

    1. On 2026-01-19 13:00:58, user Gene C Koh wrote:

      Gene Ching Chiek Koh, Serena Nik-Zainal

      Department of Genomic Medicine, University of Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.

      We commend Kanwal et al. for their timely evaluation of the in vivo mutagenic potential of CX-5461. This follows our report that CX-5461 induces substantial mutagenesis in cultured mammalian cells1. The authors analysed samples from four patients treated with CX-5461, including marrow aspirates, trephine biopsies, PBMCs, and skin lesions collected at early treatment timepoints (baseline; days 1, 2, or 9; and end-of-treatment of a 21-/28-day cycle), and used error-corrected duplex sequencing to detect low-frequency mutations. They concluded that CX-5461 exposure did not increase single-/ double-base substitution or indel burdens, nor reproduced the mutational signatures reported in our in vitro study. While we welcome their contribution, several methodological and interpretive shortcomings limit the conclusions that can be drawn.

      1. Data presentation<br /> Figures 1–3 present absolute mutation counts instead of frequencies normalized to total informative duplex bases per sample. In duplex sequencing, normalization is a basic requirement to account for variability in sequencing depth and library complexity; without it, true mutation accrual or fold-change differences versus controls (if any) cannot be assessed reliably.

      2. Experimental controls, assay sensitivity, and performance<br /> The study lacks essential positive and negative controls making it impossible to evaluate whether the sequencing and analytical processes used by the authors have worked. Clinical samples with known mutational signatures detectable through this approach should have been included to confirm assay sensitivity and substantiate a true negative finding. This is fundamental. Samples from patients unexposed to CX-5461 were also required as negative controls to establish background variability, affording confidence intervals and statistical robustness.<br /> Moreover, the authors have not shown awareness of the assay’s limit of detection (LOD). What is the smallest measurable fold-change at the reported sequencing depth? Without this, one cannot determine the smallest mutational differences that could have been missed. The authors have not disclosed quality-control metrics required to understand whether sufficient data quality was achieved for detecting differential mutagenesis. P/S: TwinStrand kit has an error rate ~0.5e-7 to 1e-7 depending on the protocols, and this can be considerably higher if DNA quality is low or from fixed biopsies.

      3. Lack of curation, comparisons to literature<br /> The reported mutation counts did not make sense (baseline values exceeding treated samples, patient samples sometimes lower than kit control). The authors should perform some ‘sanity check’ comparisons with published mutation frequencies of respective normal adult tissues from other duplex-sequencing studies2,3. Analytical rigour would include, for example, examining whether detected variants represent driver mutations from clonal haematopoiesis or occurred in genes under post-treatment selection. Such analyses would have demonstrated critical evaluation of data quality and biological relevance.

      4. Cell-type considerations, sampling window<br /> Most analysed compartments—PBMCs, MACS-sorted marrow fractions—are dominated by mature, non-dividing cells that rarely fix new mutations. A more relevant population for assessing mutagenicity is the haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs), typically <0.5% of marrow cells. A null result in the analysed compartments could just mean no widespread mutation fixation in mature immune cells; it does not exclude the possibility of mutagenesis in progenitors below the detection threshold of the current assay.<br /> In addition, samples were taken at very early timepoints (days 1, 2, 9, or EOT) of the first treatment cycle. At such intervals, mutagenic events are unlikely to have become fixed, as mutagen-induced DNA damage will need time to become embedded through DNA repair and replication. Exposure in terminally-differentiated cells might yield no detectable mutations. If exposure occurs on dividing cells, mutational footprints may only become detectable months or years after exposure. The current dataset lacks the temporal window necessary to assess cumulative in vivo mutagenicity.

      5. Expected evidence of prior treatments <br /> All four patients reportedly had “measurable, relapsed, or refractory advanced haematologic malignancies without any standard therapeutic options available”4. Although treatment histories were not provided, these patients likely received multiple prior therapies (e.g., doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, etc) that could induce characteristic mutational signatures in normal haematopoietic cells5. Were signatures of prior therapy detected by the authors? Their absence raises concerns regarding the overall assay sensitivity and/or suggests that sampling strategy was suboptimal for detecting mutagenic exposures.

      6. Interpretation of model data<br /> While critical of our findings in cultured human cells as “not adequately representative of physiological human tissue” – a limitation we explicitly acknowledged in our manuscript’s title and discussion – the authors cited a C. elegans study6 in support of their argument of “low non-selective mutagenic potential of CX-5461”. This interpretation is incorrect: the worm study reported high copy-number aberrations, high SNV burdens, and a distinct A>T/T>A-rich signature after CX-5461 exposure, with survival requiring multiple repair pathways (homology-directed repair, microhomology-mediated end joining, nucleotide excision repair, and translesion synthesis). If anything, these cross-species findings reinforce rather than contradict our observations that CX-5461 is highly mutagenic. The concentrations used in that study were chosen to promote viability in the worms, not to minimise mutagenicity. Selective viability does not equate to selective mutagenicity.

      7. Clinical mutagenicity testing<br /> We agree that clinical safety assessments must be rigorous and physiologically relevant. The authors dismissed our experiments as not rivalling the “GLP-compliant, non-mutagenic” results of the CX-5461 drug development pathway. However, those mutagenicity data are not available in the public domain and have neither been shared by the authors nor the company that distributes CX-5461.

      We urge the authors to reconsider and not simply dismiss our findings. First, the primary clinical quality mutagenicity assay (required by agencies such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), European Medicines Agency, and UK Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA)) referred to by the authors comprises the Ames test – a reverse gene mutation test performed in prokaryotes (e.g., E.coli, Salmonella).

      Second, according to the FDA’s ICH S2(R1) guidance for a standard battery of mutagenicity assays (Safety Implementation Working Group of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use), additional genotoxic assays should be performed in mammalian cells in vitro (where some of the more common assays include metaphase chromosome aberration assays, the micronucleus assay, and the mouse lymphoma L5178Y cell Tk (thymidine kinase) gene mutation assay (MLA)) or in in vivo studies as necessary.

      Third, the FDA guidance acknowledges that “no single test is capable of detecting all genotoxic mechanisms relevant in tumorigenesis” and that the standard battery serves primarily for hazard identification rather than comprehensive assessment of mutagenic potential. For negative in vivo results, the ICH S2(R1) guidance requires evidence of adequate target-tissue exposure (e.g., toxicity in the tissue, TK/PK data, or direct tissue concentrations) to validate interpretability. Without such data, negative findings have limited meaning, especially where in vitro systems demonstrate strong mutagenicity.

      Fourth, while the Ames test served its purpose for decades, there are well-described problems including false positives, false negatives and critically, a lack of human metabolism that even supplementation with rodent S9 mix cannot always overcome.

      Finally, a point also raised by the accompanying commentary to our publication is that perhaps the time has come to re-evaluate how mutagenicity assays are performed. Current assays cannot capture the genome-wide mutation patterns revealed by whole-genome sequencing in human cells, and as a community we should consider using unbiased, agnostic, modern genomic approaches capable of detecting all classes of mutational changes in human cells. This is not an attack on CX-5461; rather, it is a call to the community to consider re-evaluation of mutagenicity assays in drug development.

      8. Unsubstantiated claims<br /> The claim of potential contaminants accounting for the mutagenic outcomes we and others have observed is speculative and unsupported. The fact that multiple studies1,6 observed the same mutagenic outcomes using CX-5461 from independent sources suggests that this is unlikely. The authors showed no analytic chemistry (LC-MS/MS) and/or spiking experiments to substantiate this claim.

      9. Inadequate supporting material throughout <br /> There were many gaps in the methods/supporting information, including adequate clinical annotation, precise sampling times/total treatment cycle, and basic quality-control metrics. Experimental details (e.g., antibodies used for MACS sorting, essential for interpreting analysed subpopulations) were not provided. These omissions limit transparency, reproducibility, and the interpretability of the findings.

      10. Beneficence, non-maleficence, autonomy, justice<br /> First, in academia and medicine, we are guided by the principle of doing no harm. In identifying mutagenesis in experimental systems (an incidental finding), we acted in the best interest of the community – reporting an observation that could have an impact on patients and acknowledging the limitations of our system. We have no role in the (dis)continuation of clinical trials; we simply presented our data transparently and highlighted potential risk. <br /> Second, while the authors chose to discontinue their trial, several others remained active (e.g., NCT04890613, NCT06606990, NCT07069699, NCT07147231, NCT07137416). Their decision was conservative, and in our view, scientifically prudent. We commend their caution. However, it does not justify criticism of those of us reporting safety concerns in good faith.<br /> Third, as a community, we serve society better by being aware of issues, addressing the problems with robust experiments rather than polarising into groups “for” or “against” a compound, so that truly beneficial compounds can get to patients as quickly as possible. <br /> Finally, safety concerns may extend beyond mutagenesis and include tumour promotion effects. CX-5461’s interaction with TOP2B, for example, has been linked to serious, late-emerging toxicities, including therapy-induced leukaemia and cardiotoxicity7-10.

      Concluding remarks<br /> Given the experimental and analytical shortcomings outlined above, definitive conclusions regarding CX-5461’s in vivo mutagenicity cannot yet be drawn. The absence of evidence should not be taken as evidence of absence. Rigorous, longitudinal studies with appropriate controls and independent oversight are required to assess true medium- to long-term risks.

      We share the authors’ view that thorough, transparent evaluation of anticancer agents is essential. Given the authors’ vested interest in finding a negative result, we suggest independent individuals be involved in performing the analysis/interpretation of their studies to negate potential conflicts of interest. We remain open to collaboration in this effort, in the shared interest of patient safety and scientific integrity.

      1. Koh, G.C.C., Boushaki, S., Zhao, S.J., Pregnall, A.M., Sadiyah, F., Badja, C., Memari, Y., Georgakopoulos-Soares, I., and Nik-Zainal, S. (2024). The chemotherapeutic drug CX-5461 is a potent mutagen in cultured human cells. Nat Genet 56, 23-26. 10.1038/s41588-023-01602-9.
      2. Abascal, F., Harvey, L.M.R., Mitchell, E., Lawson, A.R.J., Lensing, S.V., Ellis, P., Russell, A.J.C., Alcantara, R.E., Baez-Ortega, A., Wang, Y., et al. (2021). Somatic mutation landscapes at single-molecule resolution. Nature 593, 405-410. 10.1038/s41586-021-03477-4.
      3. Machado, H.E., Mitchell, E., Obro, N.F., Kubler, K., Davies, M., Leongamornlert, D., Cull, A., Maura, F., Sanders, M.A., Cagan, A.T.J., et al. (2022). Diverse mutational landscapes in human lymphocytes. Nature 608, 724-732. 10.1038/s41586-022-05072-7.
      4. Khot, A., Brajanovski, N., Cameron, D.P., Hein, N., Maclachlan, K.H., Sanij, E., Lim, J., Soong, J., Link, E., Blombery, P., et al. (2019). First-in-Human RNA Polymerase I Transcription Inhibitor CX-5461 in Patients with Advanced Hematologic Cancers: Results of a Phase I Dose-Escalation Study. Cancer Discov 9, 1036-1049. 10.1158/2159-8290.CD-18-1455.
      5. Mitchell, E., Pham, M.H., Clay, A., Sanghvi, R., Williams, N., Pietsch, S., Hsu, J.I., Obro, N.F., Jung, H., Vedi, A., et al. (2025). The long-term effects of chemotherapy on normal blood cells. Nat Genet 57, 1684-1694. 10.1038/s41588-025-02234-x.
      6. Ye, F.B., Hamza, A., Singh, T., Flibotte, S., Hieter, P., and O'Neil, N.J. (2020). A Multimodal Genotoxic Anticancer Drug Characterized by Pharmacogenetic Analysis in Caenorhabditis elegans. Genetics 215, 609-621. 10.1534/genetics.120.303169.
      7. Pan, M., Wright, W.C., Chapple, R.H., Zubair, A., Sandhu, M., Batchelder, J.E., Huddle, B.C., Low, J., Blankenship, K.B., Wang, Y., et al. (2021). The chemotherapeutic CX-5461 primarily targets TOP2B and exhibits selective activity in high-risk neuroblastoma. Nat Commun 12, 6468. 10.1038/s41467-021-26640-x.
      8. Zhang, W., Gou, P., Dupret, J.M., Chomienne, C., and Rodrigues-Lima, F. (2021). Etoposide, an anticancer drug involved in therapy-related secondary leukemia: Enzymes at play. Transl Oncol 14, 101169. 10.1016/j.tranon.2021.101169.
      9. Cowell, I.G., Sondka, Z., Smith, K., Lee, K.C., Manville, C.M., Sidorczuk-Lesthuruge, M., Rance, H.A., Padget, K., Jackson, G.H., Adachi, N., and Austin, C.A. (2012). Model for MLL translocations in therapy-related leukemia involving topoisomerase IIbeta-mediated DNA strand breaks and gene proximity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109, 8989-8994. 10.1073/pnas.1204406109.
      10. Zhang, S., Liu, X., Bawa-Khalfe, T., Lu, L.S., Lyu, Y.L., Liu, L.F., and Yeh, E.T. (2012). Identification of the molecular basis of doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity. Nat Med 18, 1639-1642. 10.1038/nm.2919.
    1. On 2026-01-14 16:06:13, user Charles Tritt wrote:

      This is interesting and important work. However, the flaw I see in this study is that it included only 40 episodes of hypoxia (defined as a SpO2 of < 90%) out of 1760 measurements. Arterial saturation measurements are only clinically significant when they are significantly low, so the approach used doesn’t seem to answer the important question – are there systematic pulse ox errors that make a clinical difference?

      The linked protocols show induced hypoxia (I assume by subjects breathing air diluted with nitrogen). Of course, this couldn’t be done with critically ill patients. But I don’t see that the state of the patients being particularly important to the question of systematic pulse ox errors. Would it not be a better approach to test healthy individuals an induce hypoxia so their data set contains the clinically important information.

    1. On 2026-01-13 16:13:38, user Christine Stabell Benn wrote:

      Comment on “Non-specific effects of vaccines on all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) 2012–2025”<br /> Christine Stabell Benn, Frederik Schaltz-Buchholzer, Sebastian Nielsen, Peter Aaby<br /> We commend the authors for addressing the important and contentious question of non-specific effects (NSEs) of vaccines on all-cause mortality. However, we have several major concerns regarding the framing, completeness, methodology, and interpretation of the preprint. Collectively, these issues undermine the conclusions drawn.

      1. Restricted research question and dismissal of large parts of the evidence baseThe authors explicitly restrict their review to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published after the WHO review of non-specific effects(1). If the stated objective is to assess the evidence for NSEs on all-cause mortality in randomized trials, an updated meta-analysis incorporating all relevant RCTs, rather than an arbitrarily time-limited subset, would be more informative. The decision to exclude pre-2012 RCTs from the main analysis appears methodological rather than substantive and risks answering a narrow procedural question rather than addressing the broader scientific question.

      More importantly, NSEs represent a research area in which randomized trials are inherently difficult or impossible to conduct at scale, because the vaccines in question are already part of routine immunization schedules. As in other areas of public health - such as smoking, breastfeeding, or nutrition - causal inference therefore relies on triangulation across multiple study designs, including observational studies and natural experiments, supported by biological and immunological evidence.<br /> If the intention is to provide a meaningful update on the state of the evidence for NSEs, a comprehensive synthesis that acknowledges the strengths and limitations of all relevant study designs - or at minimum a clear and balanced justification for excluding them - is required.

      2. Incomplete identification of relevant randomized trialsDespite claiming a comprehensive search, the review misses several important randomized controlled trials that are directly relevant to NSEs, including recent RCTs published well within the stated search window (e.g. PubMed IDs: 39357573, 38350670, 33893799, 30256314). The omission of these trials raises concerns about the sensitivity of the search strategy and undermines confidence in the completeness of the evidence base.

      3. Extreme clinical and methodological heterogeneity invalidates the pooled meta-analysis<br /> The meta-analysis combines trials of three different vaccines (BCG, measles vaccine, and OPV) administered at vastly different ages (birth to 59 months), with follow-up periods ranging from days to five years, and using different randomization schemes and outcomes structures. This is not merely “heterogeneity,” but fundamentally different interventions addressing different biological hypotheses.

      Pooling these studies is not equivalent to combining “apples and bananas,” but rather apples and cars. The resulting pooled estimate does not correspond to a coherent causal treatment effect and is therefore not interpretable.

      4. Non-adherence with the WHO meta-analysis methodologyBy pooling all vaccines together, and furthermore by not focusing on the time window where a given vaccine is the most recent, the authors of the new meta-analysis violates the principles set out in the WHO meta-analysis, which emphasized vaccine-specific analyses and the importance of the most recent vaccine exposure.

      5. Overreliance on conservative confidence interval methods without adequate justificationThe authors emphasize the use of the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HKSJ) method as providing “more reliable and conservative control of type I error.” While HKSJ can be appropriate when few studies estimate the same underlying effect, its application here - given the very marked heterogeneity and conceptual incoherence of the pooled treatment effect - adds statistical conservatism without resolving the more fundamental problem of model misspecification. The resulting wide confidence intervals should not be interpreted as robust evidence against NSEs.

      6. Misinterpretation of heterogeneity statistics (I²)The statement that an I² of ~44% indicates that “approximately half the differences in the results are due to actual variations between studies” is misleading in this context. I² is meaningful only when studies estimate the same underlying causal association. When fundamentally different interventions are pooled, I² no longer has the interpretation implied by the authors.

      7. Speculation that early BCG effects are due to bias is unsubstantiatedThe manuscript repeatedly suggests that observed mortality reductions within the first 1–3 days after BCG vaccination may reflect bias due to lack of blinding. This speculation appears inconsistent with the design and reporting of the original trials. In Guinea-Bissau randomization occurred at discharge, and post-randomization care was not provided by study staff(2). In the Indian trial, the authors explicitly state that it is unlikely that the lack of blinding influenced the result. In previous open label randomized trials of BCG Russian strain in the same sites, no difference in neonatal mortality was found, which suggests that the lack of blinding did not bias the findings(3).

      Given these safeguards, attributing early effects to bias is unsupported by trial evidence and suggests that the original studies were not carefully read or adequately considered.

      8. Ignoring extensive mechanistic evidence for rapid BCG effectsThe authors further imply that effects within days are biologically implausible. This overlooks a substantial body of experimental and clinical evidence demonstrating that BCG induces trained innate immunity, including rapid functional reprogramming of myeloid cells and emergency granulopoiesis, which can occur within days and protect against severe infections such as sepsis(4, 5). These mechanisms provide a biologically coherent explanation for early effects and should have been discussed as plausible alternatives to bias.

      9. Failure to engage with established explanations for heterogeneous measles vaccine effectsThe manuscript notes heterogeneity across measles vaccine trials but does not engage with recent work offering compelling explanations for these differences, including interactions with OPV campaigns and vaccination sequence effects(6). Ignoring this literature leads to an oversimplified interpretation in which heterogeneity is treated primarily as noise rather than as potentially informative signal.

      10. Introduction of an a posteriori unifying hypothesisLate in the discussion, the authors invoke a new hypothesis that all live-attenuated vaccines should yield similar NSEs on all-cause mortality. This hypothesis appears post hoc and is not clearly justified biologically. It has never been a hypothesis within the NSE field and is biologically implausible, not least because baseline mortality differs substantially by age. Introducing this assumption only after the pooled analysis further weakens the inferential logic of the paper.

      Overall assessmentThe manuscript raises an important question, but its conclusions are undermined by:<br /> • an artificially restricted scope,<br /> • incomplete inclusion of relevant RCTs,<br /> • inappropriate pooling across fundamentally different interventions,<br /> • speculative dismissal of biologically plausible findings,<br /> • and inconsistent use of hypotheses introduced after the analysis.<br /> As currently written, the preprint does not provide a reliable basis for concluding that NSEs of vaccines on all-cause mortality are absent or unimportant. A substantially revised analysis - grounded in a comprehensive evidence base, clearer causal questions, and vaccine-specific syntheses - would be required to support such claims.

      References1. Higgins JP, Soares-Weiser K, Lopez-Lopez JA, Kakourou A, Chaplin K, Christensen H, et al. Association of BCG, DTP, and measles containing vaccines with childhood mortality: systematic review. BMJ. 2016;355:i5170.<br /> 2. Biering-Sorensen S, Aaby P, Lund N, Monteiro I, Jensen KJ, Eriksen HB, et al. Early BCG-Denmark and Neonatal Mortality Among Infants Weighing <2500 g: A Randomized Controlled Trial. Clin Infect Dis. 2017;65(7):1183-90.<br /> 3. Adhisivam B, Kamalarathnam C, Bhat BV, Jayaraman K, Namachivayam SP, Shann F, et al. Effect of BCG Danish and oral polio vaccine on neonatal mortality in newborn babies weighing less than 2000 g in India: multicentre open label randomised controlled trial (BLOW2). BMJ. 2025;390:e084745.<br /> 4. Kleinnijenhuis J, Quintin J, Preijers F, Joosten LA, Ifrim DC, Saeed S, et al. Bacille Calmette-Guerin induces NOD2-dependent nonspecific protection from reinfection via epigenetic reprogramming of monocytes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012;109(43):17537-42.<br /> 5. Brook B, Harbeson DJ, Shannon CP, Cai B, He D, Ben-Othman R, et al. BCG vaccination-induced emergency granulopoiesis provides rapid protection from neonatal sepsis. Sci Transl Med. 2020;12(542):eaax4517.<br /> 6. Nielsen S, Fisker AB, da Silva I, Byberg S, Biering-Sørensen S, Balé C, et al. Effect of early two-dose measles vaccination on childhood mortality and modification by maternal measles antibody in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa: A single-centre open-label randomised controlled trial. EClinicalMedicine. 2022;49:101467.

    1. On 2026-01-10 20:05:34, user Sequoia wrote:

      I'm interested in seeing if replacing the UPFs near the checkout with non-UPFs would result in an increase in non-UPFs consumption, especially if they were easy to eat with no preparation required (e.g. an apple or energy balls), and if so, by how much.<br /> I am delighted to know that research is being done on this critical subject.

    1. On 2026-01-09 08:47:36, user Janne Ruotsalainen wrote:

      The MVA vector is highly immunogenic as it has been used as a small pox vaccine. The ex vivo ELISPOT responses against MVA are pretty high raising the question whether the anti-vector T cell responses became immunodominant and thus suppressed some neoantigen specific T cell responses?

    1. On 2025-12-30 06:02:44, user James P wrote:

      Really nice, timely methods paper. It puts clear names and concrete examples on two ways biomarker studies can look better than they truly are in practice: (1) enrichment/range restriction, where you study a highly selected group and results don’t transport to typical patients, and (2) “double dipping,” where the same biomarker data influence who gets included and how performance is judged, which can inflate accuracy.

      I also appreciated how the audit plus the simple simulation experiments make the problems intuitive rather than abstract. The recommendations are practical (be explicit about the intended target population/estimand, and separate discovery from confirmation or prespecify analyses) and feel immediately useful for trial-ready cohorts and clinical workflows.

    1. On 2025-12-27 04:25:05, user Anjum wrote:

      Hi <br /> This manuscript has been published at <br /> John A, V R Reshma, El-Hazimy K. Bridging the Nutrition Education Gap: From Theory to Practice- A Scalable Model for Nutrition Practicums in Medical Training. Journal of Teaching Innovation and Reform. 2025;1:11-25.

    1. On 2026-03-25 16:26:02, user Kristina Jakobsson wrote:

      The outcome of this interesting study was the absolute change in eGFR from the start of the work shift to the end of the work shift.

      Cross-shift fluctuations of biomarkers are valuable for group-level evaluation of work-related kidney strain. S-Cr and S Cystatin C can rise significantly during a hot, labor-intensive shift and normalize overnight (1,2)

      However, eGFR should not be used for cross-shift comparisons, since eGFR assumes a stable level of creatinine over days (i.e., steady-state) (3) Hence, conventional eGFR calculations are not valid if creatinine is rapidly changing. S-Cr change is the preferred metric for cross-shift evaluations.

      An alternative for estimation of rapid functional changes during clinical AKI has also been suggested; the “Kinetic eGFR” (4).

      REFERENCES: <br /> 1. Lucas RAI, Hansson E, Skinner BD, Arias-Monge E, Wesseling C, Ekström U, Weiss I, Castellón ZE, Poveda S, Cerda-Granados FI, Martinez-Cuadra WJ, Glaser J, Wegman DH, Jakobsson K. The work-recovery cycle of kidney strain and inflammation in sugarcane workers following repeat heat exposure at work and at home. Eur J Appl Physiol. 2025 Mar;125(3):639-652. doi:10.1007/s00421-024-05610-3. Epub 2024 Oct 5. PMID: 39369140; PMCID: PMC11889006<br /> 2. Hansson E, Lucas RAI, Glaser JR, Weiss U, Ekström U, Abrahamson M, Wesseling C, Wegman DH, Jakobsson K. Understanding changes in serum creatinine during work in heat. Kidn Int Report vol 10 issue 8, p2860-63, Aug 2025. <br /> 3. Waikar SS, Bonventre JV. Creatinine kinetics and the definition of acute kidney injury. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2009;20: 672–679. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2008070669<br /> 4. Chen S (2013). Retooling the creatinine clearance equation to estimate kinetic GFR when the plasma creatinine is changing acutely. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology DOI: 10.1681/ASN.2012070653

    1. On 2025-12-05 05:35:16, user Evolutionary Health Group wrote:

      We at Evolutionary Health Group ( https://evoheal.github.io/ ) really enjoyed this paper.

      Here are our highlights:

      One of the strongest contributions is the introduction of a nonlinear null model of covariates that outputs a single scaler, which can be inserted into existing linear frameworks while adding the power of nonlinear modeling.

      The authors demonstrate that nonlinear covariate modeling consistently helps more than it harms: adding the null prediction rarely interferes with genetic inference and the gains are substantial for many traits, giving the method an encouraging risk-benefit profile.

      Instead of attempting to model exposures explicitly, the authors show that spatiotemporal information can capture complex environmental influences. Even though these features are non-causal, researchers can use such data to hypothesize environmental drivers without having to specify them individually in models.

      Using TreeSHAP-IQ, the authors show that nonlinear models find age-sex, seasonality-sex, and birth-home location interactions. These patterns are biologically credible and validated by external literature but cannot be captured by standard linear covariate adjustments. This shows that nonlinear covariate modeling doesn't just improve predictions, it produces interpretable biological insights.

    1. On 2021-12-07 10:40:57, user S. von Jan wrote:

      I feel that some of the assumption that go into the model calculation are overestimated, others are underestimated, and some important further information is not considered. I am referring specifically to v (vaccine uptake), s (susceptibility reduction) and b (relative increase in the recovery rate after a breakthrough infection).

      The authors assume a vaccination rate of 65% for the period between 11.10 and 7.11. For the sake of transparency, I think it should be mentioned in the study that in Germany an underestimation of the vaccination rate of up to 5 percentage points is assumed (1), perhaps this should also be considered in the scenarios. Moreover, the recovered cases are not mentioned at all, do they not play a role for the model?

      For s in the "upper bound" scenario, a 72% efficacy of the vaccination in Germany is assumed (2), this figure comes from the German Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and is calculated based on the vaccination breakthroughs in Germany, i.e., it only includes the number of symptomatic cases in Germany. The RKI writes on the estimated vaccine effectiveness: "The values listed here must therefore be interpreted with caution and serve primarily to classify vaccination breakthroughs and to provide an initial estimate of vaccine effectiveness" (3, own translation). The vaccine effectiveness estimated here refers to the effectiveness of vaccination against Covid 19 infections with clinical symptoms, not against infection in general. However, there are indications that infections are more often asymptomatic in vaccinated persons ("vaccinated participants were more likely to be completely asymptomatic, especially if they were 60 years or older"(4)), and vaccinated people in Germany must rarely participate in Covid 19 tests. The RKI points out that vaccination would considerably reduce transmission of the virus to other people but assumes that even asymptomatically infected vaccinated people can be infectious: "However, it must be assumed that people become PCR-positive after contact with SARS-CoV-2 despite vaccination and thereby are infectious and excrete viruses. In the process, these people can either develop symptoms of an illness (which is mostly rather mild) or no symptoms at all" (5, own translation). So is the effectiveness of vaccination against symptomatic infections in this setting relevant when it comes to the role of the vaccinated/unvaccinated to the infection incidence?

      In the "lower efficacy" scenario, s is given as 50% to 60% based on an English study. This percentage corresponds to the data from another study, which estimates the effectiveness of the Biontech/Pfizer vaccination against infection as 53% after 4 months in the dominant delta variant (6). Would this number not be more plausible for the "upper bound" scenario? The "lower efficacy" scenario could then be calculated with an efficacy of 34%, for example, as suggested by another study on infection among household members (7).

      If we consider b, "an average infectious period that is 2/3 as long as this of unvaccinated infecteds" is assumed. This figure seems reasonable based on the available information on the faster decline of the viral load in vaccinated persons. However, there are statements, for example by Prof. Christian Drosten in an interview with the newspaper “Die Zeit”, that make this effect seem less significant: "The viral load - and I mean the isolatable infectious viral load - is quite comparable in the first few days of infection. Then it drops faster in vaccinated people. The trouble is, this infection is transmitted right at the beginning. I'm convinced that we have little benefit from fully vaccinated adults who don't get boostered" (8, own translation). Moreover, there is another issue that is not mentioned in the paper at all, but which I think should be taken into account: Unvaccinated people in Germany have to test themselves much more frequently than vaccinated people (e.g., at the workplace) due to the 3G rules (9, this means vaccinated, recovered or tested). Children and adolescents have a testing frequency of 3 rapid tests a week (10). Even if the effectiveness of the rapid Covid 19 tests for asymptomatic infections should be 58% (i.e., only 58% of infected persons are correctly identified as positive) (11), a test rate of 2 to 3 tests per week would still reduce the duration during which an unvaccinated person is infectious and not in quarantine. This consideration is not included in the model calculation.

      Overall, it appears that several central parameters were underestimated or overestimated in the model calculation: The vaccination rate is actually higher, the effectiveness of vaccination against infection is certainly lower than the figure given in the “upper bound” scenario, and the period in which infected persons infect others is shortened for unvaccinated persons by 3G regulations, since they have to go into quarantine if they test positive. As a result, the contribution of the unvaccinated to the infection incidence in Germany is likely to be strongly overestimated in the model calculation, especially in the “upper bound” scenario.

      (1) https://www.rki.de/DE/Conte... <br /> (2) For adolescents, s is even estimated at 92%, without explicit data being available here.<br /> (3) https://www.rki.de/DE/Conte.... <br /> (4) https://www.thelancet.com/j...<br /> (5) https://www.rki.de/SharedDo... <br /> (6) https://www.thelancet.com/j... <br /> (7) https://www.thelancet.com/j... <br /> (8) https://www.zeit.de/2021/46... <br /> (9) https://www.bundesregierung... <br /> (10) https://taz.de/Schulen-in-d... <br /> (11) https://www.cochrane.de/de/... This overview work does not yet refer to the delta variant.

    1. On 2020-05-30 07:55:21, user Irene Petersen wrote:

      You seem to conflate the risk of getting exposed (and thereby infected) and the risk of dying with covid19. However, these risks may vary substantially and therefore we would need a two-step approach to obtain meaningful predictions. For example, age and ethnicity are strong predictors for exposure while diabetes and obesity are strong predictors of mortality once you are infected.

    1. On 2020-06-23 13:30:40, user Ralph Hawkins wrote:

      Analysis of the RECOVERY trial pre-print data, looking only at non-ventilated patients together, not stratified by oxygen use. There is NO DEMONSTRABLE TREATMENT BENEFIT.<br /> Dex treated 360/1780 (20.2%) vs standard care 787/3836 (21.6%) p=0.2427

    2. On 2020-06-23 19:20:17, user addie wrote:

      The article states that patients receiving mechanical ventilation were ten years younger than those not receiving respiratory support - this implies that ventilators were being rationed? Can the authors speak to this.

      Thank you.

    1. On 2020-06-25 15:01:25, user Kirielson wrote:

      I think this paper is fine, my question I would have for the authors: Did you attempt to evaluate if the patient could relay back those risks to you through any metric? Finding a way to see if a patient understands it by evaluation may see how effective one is over the other while looking at their preferneces.

    1. On 2020-06-05 13:21:52, user Arnar Palsson wrote:

      Reference 6. Falconer D, M.T. Introduction to Quantitative Genetics, (London, 1996).

      Has two authors, Douglas S. Falconer and Trudy F.C. Mackay

    1. On 2020-06-26 16:13:44, user Veli VU wrote:

      the authors do not detect SARS-CoV-2 in samples from 2019 March. Rather, they do detect IP2/IP4 resembling SARS-CoV-2. Whatever virus it is it does not have the E and N1/N2 of SARS-CoV-2. Fluctuations in qRT-PCRs even in 2020 samples -different sewers- are way too high to trust the reliability of the RT-PCRs. However, their approach is amazing. I hope they use a metagenomic approach to sequence to sewers rather than doing an RT-PCR assay, which doesn't look very rigorous.

    1. On 2021-06-04 13:42:50, user fauxnombre1 wrote:

      Help me understand. The cumulative dose is not a product of the duration of treatment? Patients receiving treatment longer have a better survival rate?

    1. On 2020-06-06 05:51:49, user Tim Lee wrote:

      The possible relationship between A blood type and COVID-19 progressive respiratory failure.

      Endemen et al (2020) found that progressive respiratory failure in COVID-19 is linked to hypercoagulability.21 This conclusion is supported by cohort studies that found hypercoagulability and a severe inflammatory state in COVID-19 patients 22,23 . Type A blood increases the risk for thromboembolic events.25 Viral infections activate the blood coagulation system.29

      It may be that all factors that increase your risk for hypercoagulation increase the risk for progressive respiratory failure in COVID-19. One factor that has caught my attention is mercury. It is ubiquitous and known to cause hypercoagulation. (26-28) For more info please read my note on the topic https://www.qeios.com/read/...

      1. Endeman H, Zee P van der, Genderen ME van, Akker JPC van den, Gommers D. Progressive respiratory failure in COVID-19: a hypothesis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;0(0). doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30366-2

      2. Panigada M, Bottino N, Tagliabue P, et al. Hypercoagulability of COVID-19 patients in Intensive Care Unit. A Report of Thromboelastography Findings and other Parameters of Hemostasis. J Thromb Haemost JTH. Published online April 17, 2020. doi:10.1111/jth.14850

      3. Spiezia L, Boscolo A, Poletto F, et al. COVID-19-Related Severe Hypercoagulability in Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit for Acute Respiratory Failure. Thromb Haemost. Published online April 21, 2020. doi:10.1055/s-0040-1710018

      4. Ellinghaus D, Degenhardt F, Bujanda L, et al. The ABO blood group locus and a chromosome 3 gene cluster associate with SARS-CoV-2 respiratory failure in an Italian-Spanish genome-wide association analysis. medRxiv. Published online June 2, 2020:2020.05.31.20114991. doi:10.1101/2020.05.31.20114991

      5. Groot Hilde E., Villegas Sierra Laura E., Said M. Abdullah, Lipsic Erik, Karper Jacco C., van der Harst Pim. Genetically Determined ABO Blood Group and its Associations With Health and Disease. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2020;40(3):830-838. doi:10.1161/ATVBAHA.119.313658

      6. Worowski K. The Hypercoagulability in Mercury Chloride Intoxicated Dogs. Thromb Haemost. 1968;19(1/2):236-241. doi:10.1055/s-0038-1651201

      7. Lim K-M, Kim S, Noh J-Y, et al. Low-Level Mercury Can Enhance Procoagulant Activity of Erythrocytes: A New Contributing Factor for Mercury-Related Thrombotic Disease. Environ Health Perspect. 2010;118(7):928-935. doi:10.1289/ehp.0901473

      8. Song Y. [Effects of chronic mercury poisoning on blood coagulation and fibrinolysis systems]. Zhonghua Lao Dong Wei Sheng Zhi Ye Bing Za Zhi Zhonghua Laodong Weisheng Zhiyebing Zazhi Chin J Ind Hyg Occup Dis. 2005;23(6):405-407.

      9. Antoniak S. The coagulation system in host defense. Res Pract Thromb Haemost. 2018;2(3):549-557. doi:10.1002/rth2.12109

    1. On 2020-06-09 16:22:37, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Title <br /> Eosinopenia Phenotype in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Multi-center Retrospective Study from Anhui, China

      Keywords<br /> • Lymphopenia<br /> • Covid-19 severity<br /> Main Findings<br /> It was previously shown that more than 80% of severe COVID-19 cases presented eosinopenia, in a cohort of Wuhan [1]. In this preprint Cheng et al. aim to describe the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients with eosinopenia. In this retrospective and multicenter study, the COVID-19 patients were stratified in three groups: mild (n=5), moderate (n=46) and severe (n=8). All patients received inhalation of recombinant interferon and antiviral drugs, 50% of the eosinopenia patients received corticosteroids therapy compared to 13.8% of the non-eosinopenia patients according to the patients’ clinical presentation. The median age of eosinopenia patients was significantly higher than the non-eosinopenia ones (47 vs 36 years old) as well as body temperature (not significant). Eosinopenia patients had higher proportions of dyspnea, gastrointestinal symptoms, and comorbidities. Eosinopenia patients presented more common COVID-19 symptoms, such as cough, sputum, fatigue, than non-eosinopenia patients (33.3% vs 17.2%). Interestingly lymphocytes counts (median: 101 cells/ul) in eosinopenia patients were significantly less than in non-eosinopenia patients (median: 167 cells/ul, p<0.001). All patients within the severe group recovered and presented with similar numbers of eosinophils and lymphocytes compared with healthy individuals upon resolution of infection and symptoms. The results showed by Cheng et al. are similar to another study involving MERS-Cov [2], but is contradictory to the previous observation with infants infected with respiratory syncytial virus, where high amounts of eosinophils were found in the respiratory tract of patients [3].

      Limitations<br /> The sample size of this study (n=59) is very narrow and could bias the observations described. The authors did not thoroughly measure potential confounding effects of or control for type of treatments, which were different across the patients. <br /> It is still unclear if SARS-COV-2 infection induces eosinopenia or eosinophilia in the respiratory tract, since all reports so far showed peripheral eosinophil counts. As eosinophils antiviral response to respiratory viral infections has been shown [4], it would be important have discussed if the high inflammatory response produced by eosinophils could contribute to the lung pathology during COVID-19, especially when vaccine candidates have been tested and could induce increased amounts of eosinophils.

      Significance<br /> This study suggests that eosinophilia may be a clinical phenotype of COVID-19 that distinguishes eosinopenia patients from non-eosinopenia patients. The contribution of the present study is relevant and calls for experimental analysis to reveal the importance of eosinopenia in COVID-19.

      Credit<br /> Reviewed by Alessandra Soares-Schanoski as part of a project by students, postdocs and faculty at the Immunology Institute of the Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai.

      1. Du, Y., et al., Clinical Features of 85 Fatal Cases of COVID-19 from Wuhan: A Retrospective Observational Study. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2020.
      2. Hwang, S.M., et al., Clinical and Laboratory Findings of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection. Jpn J Infect Dis, 2019. 72(3): p. 160-167.
      3. Harrison, A.M., et al., Respiratory syncytical virus-induced chemokine expression in the lower airways: eosinophil recruitment and degranulation. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 1999. 159(6): p. 1918-24.
      4. Lindsley, A.W., J.T. Schwartz, and M.E. Rothenberg, Eosinophil responses during COVID-19 infections and coronavirus vaccination. J Allergy Clin Immunol, 2020.
    1. On 2020-07-12 14:20:35, user Knut M. Wittkowski wrote:

      Herd immunity is not a "strategy", it's nature's way of dealing with influenza-like illnesses. Once the data is in, the models become obsolete. Herd immunity is already established in many places, including the northeast of the US (NYC) and most of Europe. Proof: There is no rebound in spite of widespread "reopening". QED

    1. On 2020-07-15 07:10:13, user Dr Ahmed Sayeed wrote:

      Section Review comments and notes Abstract, title and references The study appears to be new and promising in the current scenario of COVID pandemic In the objectives, the authors have the aim to describe the bronchoscopic findings in COVID patients but in the method, they have forgotten to mention how the bronchoscopic findings will be studied What is the meaning of COVID19 patients? Is suspected covid19 or confirmed COVID 19 with Nasopharyngeal swab(PCR or serology or Nuclear acid amplification test) The references are recent and relevant with the inclusion of appropriate study

      Introduction/background In introduction line 4, the term bronchial alveolar lavage would be more appropriate than bronchial culture The author uses the term culture repeatedly which excludes other methods like PCR, grams stain, KOH stain, AFB and would be advised to use the broader term to include other methods of detection of organisms The limitations of the study are not mentioned Methods The study subjects The age group of the patients should be mentioned and the site of covid infection? lung also needs to be mentioned The variables are defined and measured Yes the study appears to valid and reliable

      Results My knowledge of statistics is very limited and it is difficult for me to comment

      Discussion and Conclusions<br /> There is a grammatical error in line 2 and 5 of the discussion Suggest difficult to do suction In paragraph 3 of the discussion the reference 18 is written twice The reference in the discussion are not quoted in serial order The limitations of the study need to be explained more

      Overall The study design was appropriate This study added the to the scarcity of the novel virus literature and it showed that more hospital acquired infections are common in patients with covid I did not find any major flaws in the article

      full review:

      Overall statement or summary of the article and its findings

      The article needs some correction and rewriting with some of my suggestion<br /> Some more literature needs to be done and added to the discussion with some new references

      Overall strengths of the article and what impact it might have in the respiratory field

      The article appears to be promising and will definitely add to the literature of BAL in COVID which not frequently performed in fear of spreading the infection to the health care staff Culture and sensitivity will make a difference in the management of COVID ventilated patients

      Specific comments on the weaknesses of the article and what could be done to improve it Major points in the article which need clarification, refinement, reanalysis, rewrites and/or additional information and suggestions for what could be done to improve the article.

      More literature review<br /> More references need to be added<br /> Minor points like figures/tables not being mentioned in the text, a missing reference, typos, and other inconsistencies.

      English and grammar

    1. On 2020-05-01 04:18:35, user Dr. Anthony Burnetti wrote:

      The proposed mechanism is blocking the import of accessory proteins into the nucleus that suppress the innate immune response. The dose needed to block viral replication in vitro is possibly higher than a dose that could have a positive impact on the immune response. It is still quite possible that the approved dose could have stronger effects in animals than in tissue culture.

    1. On 2021-06-20 08:07:15, user Stephen Smith wrote:

      note bottom-left panel in Fig1 needs replacing with the correct scatterplot; have tweeted the corrected sub-panel and will update PDF here shortly.

    1. On 2020-04-16 23:17:24, user Samantha Grist wrote:

      We appreciate the authors’ urgency in addressing SARS-CoV-2 decontamination for reuse of N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs). In the spirit of that urgency and health impacts, we note two concerns with the current preprint that could (unintentionally) cause confusion: (1) likely mismatch between the wavelength range to which the reported UVA/B light meter is sensitive and the viral-killing UV-C wavelengths emitted by the LED High Power UV Germicidal Lamp, as highlighted by other commenters, and (2) omission of a direct comparison between the UV-C doses applied in this study and the minimally acceptable UV-C dose understood to be needed for efficacy (e.g., CDC Guidance).

      We have contacted the authors Fischer and Munster via separate email suggesting that they:

      1. Please check a potential mismatch between the UVGI light needed for viral inactivation and the UVA/B light meter used: The LED High Power UV Germicidal Lamp described in the Methods emits in the 260-285 nm range, as is appropriate to inactivate virus by damaging DNA and RNA. However, the UVA/B light meter (General Tools) mentioned in the Methods section is not suited to detect the virus-killing light from the LED High Power UV Germicidal Lamp. Further supporting the possibility of a sensor-source mismatch is the reported irradiance of 5 µW/cm^2, which is ~1000x lower than typically reported for effective N95 FFR decontamination [Lore et al., 2012 (1.6-2.2 mW/cm^2); Heimbuch & Harnish, 2019 (4.2-18 mW/cm^2), Mills et al., 2018 (17 mW/cm^2)].

      Being designed for germicidal function, the LED High Power UV Germicidal Lamp would have significant output in the UV-C range and would not be expected to have significant output in the UVA/B range (280-400 nm). Put another way, the UVA/B light meter used would not be able to accurately assess the germicidal function of the LED High Power UV Germicidal Lamp, which stems from the UV-C light. It is the UV-C-specific dose that is relevant to viral inactivation, with UV-B (280-320 nm) dose providing significantly lower germicidal efficacy, and UV-A (320-400 nm) considered very minimally germicidal [Kowalski et al., 2009; Lytle and Sagripanti 2005; EPA].

      1. Please clarify the total UV-C dose delivered in Figure 1, as the peer-reviewed literature points to UV-C dose of > 1.0 J/cm2 as the critical factor in N95 FFR viral inactivation treatment. Although UV-C dose governs viral inactivation, the preprint does not clearly state the germicidal UV-C dose delivered to the N95 coupons for the Figure 1 treatment times. While germicidal UV dose is the product of the UV-C irradiance and exposure time, comparison to the minimally acceptable UV-C dose of 1.0 J/cm^2 is needed. UV-C irradiance varies significantly both between and within systems, so treatment time is not an accurate characterization metric for understanding UV-C germicidal efficacy (especially when translating to a different dosing system); dose needs to be quantified directly with a NIST-traceable, calibrated radiometer matched to the germicidal wavelength range of the source. At the reported 5 µW/cm^2 irradiance, the total dose delivered during a 60 min treatment period is only 18 mJ/cm^2, greater than an order of magnitude lower than the effective 1.0 J/cm^2 UV-C dose reported in the literature for similar viruses [Lore et al., 2012; Heimbuch & Harnish, 2019, Mills et al., 2018] and current CDC guidelines for UVGI decontamination of N95s [CDC]. A UV-C dose of 1.0 J/cm^2 across all N95 FFR surfaces is understood from the literature as the minimum acceptable for N95 decontamination.

      Without these clarifications we are concerned that this important study may be misconstrued by readers as indicating that either (i) very low UV-C doses are sufficient for N95 decontamination (the peer-reviewed evidence suggests that they are not), (ii) a certain UV exposure time is sufficient for N95 decontamination (dose, not time, is the critical factor) or (iii) that UV-A or UV-B are effective decontamination wavelength ranges (they are not). In the spirit of the authors’ study, our #1 concern is for the health of our heroic healthcare professionals. For additional detail from the peer-reviewed literature, please see the 2020 scientific consensus summaries on N95 FFR decontamination at: n95decon.org.

    1. On 2020-05-02 21:19:54, user Javier Mancilla-Galindo wrote:

      This study could have a great impact in policy making. However, even when the authors have acknowledged that serological studies will be of great importance in order to take any decisions, the authors have not commented on the impact that having non-neutralizing antibodies, especially for the persons undergoing asymptomatic or mild disease, could have on this model. Also, a sufficient and efficient cellular immune response would be granted for this model to hold true. A third factor which could affect this model is the ability of the virus to mutate into an antigenically different strain.

      Even when the initial intention of the model was not to take into account these factors, it would be important to clarify that a 100% effective adaptive immune response is being assumed and that no viral antigenic variability is being considered. The authors could address what is known up to this date on these topics to strengthen the discussion and conclusions of this study and for successful publication.

    1. On 2021-02-09 15:49:22, user Rhonda Witwer wrote:

      Great study! What was the source of your Type 3 resistant starch? Different sources have been shown to have different effects, making it important to disclose the RS source.

    1. On 2021-10-06 17:29:33, user Trevor Madge wrote:

      Forgive me I may have misunderstood the paper, but is the dataset only including those who where "sick" with COVID19? Does it exclude all asymptomatic infections?

    1. On 2019-11-09 20:30:28, user GuyguyKabundi Tshima wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AT 07 NOVEMBER 2019<br /> Friday, November 08, 2019<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,286, of which 3,168 are confirmed and 118 are probable. In total, there were 2,192 deaths (2074 confirmed and 118 probable) and 1064 people healed.<br /> • 560 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> • No new confirmed cases;<br /> • No new confirmed deaths have been recorded;<br /> • 1 person cured out of the CTE of Butembo;<br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 161 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths;

      NEWS

      End of tour of the general coordinator of the Ebola response in North Kivu and Ituri

      • The Epidemic Response Coordinator for Ebola Virus Disease, Prof. Steve Ahuka Mundeke, was on mission from 05 to 07 November 2019 in a few areas affected by Ebola Virus Disease in North Kivu and Ituri, to inquire about the epidemiological and security evolution of the response. During this mission, he visited some sites of the response to Beni in North Kivu, including the Mangango camp where the vaccination of pygmies took place;

      • In Ituri, Prof Ahuka traveled to Biakato Mines in Mandima, Mambasa Territory, where he first reinserted three of the four cured patients he had discharged well into the Mangina Ebola Treatment Center in the area. Mabalako health center in North Kivu. He also comforted the family of the retaliating agent and journalist, murdered on the night of Saturday, November 2, 2019 in Lwemba in Mambasa territory in Ituri;

      • He also chaired the daily meeting on the activities of the response in the sub-coordination of Biakato Mines;

      • On his way back, the general coordinator of the riposte went to the Mangina Subcommittee, where he chaired under the trees the morning meeting in Mangina. He also visited the Health Center "Case of Salvation" which collaborates with the response and to whom he handed over a large batch of mattresses in the presence of the WHO coordinator of Mangina's sub-coordination. He again visited the Mangango camp, where the pygmies who have joined the activities of the riposte live to help the response reach all the other pygmies;

      • He closed his tour of North Kivu and Ituri with a visit to the Ebola Treatment Center in Beni.

      VACCINATION

      • Pygmy vaccination continues in Mabalako at Mangango camp, 19/19 vaccinated pygmies;<br /> • Continuation of vaccination in expanded ring, around 3 confirmed cases on 04/11/2019 and 2 cases confirmed on 05/11/2019 and the vaccination of the biker as contacts, in Beni in five (5) areas health care, including in Butsili, Ngongolio, Tamende, mandrandele and Kasabinyole;<br /> • Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 248,460 people have been vaccinated;<br /> • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature rise) at the sanitary control points is 114,626,335 ;<br /> • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    2. On 2019-11-10 21:15:52, user GuyguyKabundi Tshima wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AT 08 NOVEMBER 2019<br /> Saturday, November 09, 2019<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,286, of which 3,168 are confirmed and 118 are probable. In total, there were 2,192 deaths (2074 confirmed and 118 probable) and 1064 people healed.<br /> • 501 suspected cases under investigation;

      THE LIST OF NO:

      • No new cases have been confirmed;<br /> • No new confirmed deaths have been recorded;<br /> • No cured person has emerged from CTEs;<br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 161 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths;

      NEWS

      NOTHING TO REPORT

      VACCINATION<br /> • Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 249,290 people have been vaccinated;<br /> • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature measurement ) at the sanitary control points is 115.036.328 ;<br /> • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    3. On 2019-11-27 15:46:04, user Guyguy wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AS AT 25 NOVEMBER 2019<br /> Tuesday, November 26, 2019<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,304, of which 3,186 are confirmed and 118 are probable. In total, there were 2,199 deaths (2081 confirmed and 118 probable) and 1077 people cured.<br /> • 392 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> • 1 new case confirmed in North Kivu in Mabalako;<br /> • No new deaths among confirmed cases;<br /> • No cured person has emerged from CTEs;<br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 163 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths;

      NEWS

      NOTHING TO REPORT

      VACCINATION

      • Despite the tense situation of the city of Beni, a vaccination ring was opened around the confirmed case of 24 October 2019 in the Kanzulinzuli Health Area of the General Reference Hospital;<br /> • 724 people were vaccinated with the 2nd Ad26.ZEBOV / MVA-BN-Filo vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) in the two Health Zones of Karisimbi in Goma;<br /> • Since the start of vaccination on August 8, 2018 with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, 255,215 people have been vaccinated;<br /> • Approved October 22, 2019 by the Ethics Committee of the School of Public Health of the University of Kinshasa and October 23, 2019 by the National Ethics Committee, the second vaccine, called Ad26.ZEBOV / MVA-BN -Filo, is produced by Janssen Pharmaceuticals for Johnson & Johnson;<br /> • This new vaccine is in addition to the first, the rVSV-ZEBOV, vaccine used until then (since August 08, 2018) in this epidemic manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, after approval of the Ethics Committee on May 20, 2018. has recently been pre-qualified for registration.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Sanitary control activities are disrupted in the towns of Beni and Butembo in North Kivu province following demonstrations by the population which decries killings of civilians;<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature measurement ) at the sanitary control points is 120,825,670 ;<br /> • To date, a total of 109 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch him/her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    4. On 2019-09-30 05:24:02, user Guyguy wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AS AT 25 SEPTEMBER 2019

      The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated September 25, 2019

      Thursday, September 26, 2019

      Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,178, of which 3,066 confirmed and 112 probable. In total, there were 2,126 deaths (2014 confirmed and 112 probable) and 981 people healed.

      • 483 suspected cases under investigation; <br /> • 3 new confirmed cases, including: <br /> • No cases in North Kivu; <br /> • 3 in Ituri, including 2 in Mandima and 1 in Mambasa; <br /> • 4 new confirmed deaths, including; <br /> • 1 community death in Ituri in Mandima; <br /> • 3 deaths of confirmed cases in North Kivu, including 2 in Katwa and 1 in Beni; <br /> • 1 person cured out of CTE in North Kivu in Butembo; <br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 160 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths. <br /> NEWS <br /> Six people from Mambasa cured of Ebola Virus Disease out of Komanda CTE in Ituri * <br /> • The Ebola Treatment Center (ETC) in Komanda, Ituri province, unloaded on Thursday, September 26, 2019, six people cured of Ebola Virus Disease, all from Mambasa; <br /> • For the director of the Komanda CTE, Claude Banga Lonema, this treatment center receives patients from the Nyakunde and Komanda health zones, as well as from Mambasa well before the construction of its CTE, which has become functional for almost a week; <br /> • For the director of the CTE of Komanda, Dr. Claude Banga Lonema, all these cures are the work of a whole team, including medical and paramedical staff, psychosocial teams, nutritionists and hygienists and guards, to whom he is grateful for all their efforts in this day-to-day treatment center, as well as dedication and their apostolate; <br /> • The coordinator ai of the Subcommittee on Response and Chief Medical Officer of the Komanda Health Zone, Dr. Faustin Singo Ngozo, said on this occasion that the success and success of Ebola Virus Disease is an asset for everyone in the response. This success must be shared, because if surveillance does not work, there will always be notification of deaths. The presence of cures at the Komanda CTE shows that epidemiological surveillance has been successful in detecting cases in a timely manner and has enabled the care physicians to have sufficient time to treat these patients. To this end, he recommended mutual support among all the teams in the response to push him out of the way to harm the epidemic, which he said has lasted too long, to continue working with the same momentum. He also asked the six healings to help the response in sensitizing everyone in his respective environment. Military healing, he said, is a resource that can educate his colleagues to end this epidemic; <br /> • Among the Mambasa healers who were discharged from the Komanda Treatment Center were an 8-year-old girl, a man in uniform, including the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the village chief of Makoko II, a village in strong resistance. The latter two promised to raise awareness about Ebola Virus Disease in their respective communities; <br /> • This triumphal exit from the six healings of Mambasa, an area still showing resistance against EVD, was made in the presence of the few partners, namely the delegates of WHO and UNICEF: <br /> • Beginning with the prayer, this ceremony also ended with prayer and a family photo between the cures and the teams of the response in this ETC; <br /> • Immediately after, their exits from the CTE of Komanda, the cured were accompanied by the teams of the response to Mambasa, their respective health zone, where a festive atmosphere awaited them; <br /> • The Komanda CTE is located in the Mangiva Health Area, precisely in Makayanga village in the health zone of Komanda, 100 km from the Mambasa health zone.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding). <br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.

      VACCINATION <br /> • Expanded ring vaccination around 2 confirmed cases in the Mataba Health Area in Kalunguta, North Kivu. In addition, two other vaccination rings, in the same health zone, are waiting to be opened in Lisasa and Kabasha Health Zones; <br /> • Since the beginning of vaccination on August 8, 2018, 228,430 people have been vaccinated; <br /> • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS <br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature rise) at the sanitary control points is 98,818,462; <br /> • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.


      LEXICON <br /> • A community death is any death that occurs outside a #Ebola Treatment Center. <br /> • A probable case is a death for which it was not possible to obtain biological samples for confirmation in the laboratory but where the investigations revealed an epidemiological link with a confirmed or probable case.

    5. On 2019-10-02 02:06:42, user Guyguy wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AS AT 29 SEPTEMBER 2019<br /> The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated September 29, 2019<br /> Monday, September 30, 2019

      • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,191, of which 3,077 are confirmed and 114 are probable. In total, there were 2,133 deaths (2019 confirmed and 114 probable) and 991 people healed . <br /> • 346 suspected cases under investigation; <br /> • 3 new confirmed cases, including: <br /> • 1 in North Kivu in Kalunguta; <br /> • 2 in Ituri, including 1 in Mambasa and 1 in Mandima; <br /> • 4 new confirmed deaths in Ituri, including: <br /> • 1 community death in Ituri 1 in Mandima; <br /> • 3 confirmed deaths in CTEs in Ituri, including 2 in Mambasa and 1 Komanda; <br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 160 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths.

      Synthesis of epidemiological data at week 39 (from 23 to 29/09/019)

      • Number of probable new cases: 3 <br /> • Number of new confirmed cases: 20 <br /> • Number of new healings: 16 <br /> • Number of new deaths: 12 <br /> • Community: 4 <br /> • Confirmed deaths: 8

      NEWS

      Local providers of 17 silent and hard-to-reach health areas in Mambasa in Ituri sensitized on EVD

      • One hundred and two local providers of 17 silent and hard-to-reach health areas in the Mambasa Ebola Virus Disease Response (EVD) sub-coordination were sensitized from 29 to 30 September 2019 in women's ward in Mambasa in Ituri province on this disease;

      • This took place during a briefing day for the purpose of helping to stop the transmission of Ebola Virus Disease in this sub-coordination in order to prevent its spread to other health zones. , DRC provinces and neighboring countries;

      • This day also had the objective of setting up a functional alert system in the community and in the health structures of the target health areas and a communication system allowing a rapid response in case of notification of a validated alert. , a new confirmed or probable case and accelerate ownership of the response by communities, their leaders and local health system actors;

      • These local providers were trained on EVD basics, early definitions / detections of cases and actions to be taken, as well as escalation of alerts, risk communication and community engagement. They were also trained on dignified and safe burial (DHS), active case finding, community-level monitoring tools and reporting system, risk communication and community engagement;

      • Awareness Day was opened by Mambasa Territory Administrator Mr. Idriss Koma Kukodila in the presence of the Deputy General Coordinator for Ebola Response to the Epidemic, Dr. Justus Nsio Mbeta, the Physician the coordination of the Mambasa Health Zone, representing the Mambasa sub-coordinator of the response and the field coordinators of WHO and UNICEF;

      • The sub-coordination of the Mambasa response includes 3 health zones, including Mambasa, Lolwa and Mandima, and 28 health areas, including 6 hot spots reporting cases within 14 days. These include Binase, Lolwa, Mambasa, Salama, Mandima and Some;

      • The 17 health areas are: Banana, Tabala, Bandishende, Makoko II, Epulu, Salate, Molokai, Bukulani, Akokora, Pede, Bakaiko Kenya, Nduye, Bongupanda, Malembi, Bahaka, Lolwa and Some. These are health areas that do not report EVD alerts and are areas of difficult access and insecurity.

      VACCINATION

      • Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 230,489 people have been vaccinated;

      • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature measurement) at the sanitary control points is 100,607,920;

      • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding). <br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    6. On 2019-10-10 12:58:07, user GuyguyKabundi Tshima wrote:

      EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AT OCTOBER 07, 2019<br /> Tuesday, October 08, 2019<br /> Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,206, of which 3,092 are confirmed and 114 are probable. In total, there were 2,143 deaths (2029 confirmed and 114 probable) and 1006 people healed.<br /> 443 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> 1 new case confirmed at CTE in Ituri in Mandima;<br /> 1 new confirmed death in North Kivu in Mabalako;<br /> 10 people were cured from the CTE, including 7 in Ituri in Komanda and 3 in North Kivu, including Beni, 1 in Katwa and 1 in Mabalako;<br /> No health workers are among the newly confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 161 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths.

      No more confirmed cases of EVD at Butembo CTE<br /> - The Butembo Ebola Treatment Center (CTE) in North Kivu no longer has a confirmed case of Ebola Virus Disease;<br /> - The last two confirmed cases supported in this CTE have been released since Sunday, October 07, 2019 and have been reintegrated this Tuesday, October 08, 2019 in their respective communities by the teams of the response to the Virus Disease #Ebola of the psychosocial care. These cases are respectively health zones of Biena and Kayna;<br /> - Miss Ornella Bwira Zawadi, psychosocial supervisor at Butembo CTC, explains the psychosocial care at the Treatment Center. The Butembo CTE uses 17 psychologists subdivided into four blocks of tasks. These are triage supervisors, suspected cases, confirmed cases and accompanying village;<br /> - In the triage center, the psychologist ensures the awareness of newly admitted CTE cases. These new cases are normally 72 hours in the ETC and are taken on the 1st and the last day;<br /> - From the first day, the psychologist announces the result to the patients, its clinical evolution and its state. The patient who is positive is moved from the suspect's room to the confirmed block, while the patient who is negative until the third day remains in the suspected cases;<br /> - When the person is confirmed Ebola case, the psychologist is responsible for announcing his result, to make him aware of its evolution and life at the CTE. He asks him questions about his career in order to facilitate the follow-up of contacts;<br /> - It also monitors the confirmed case daily and ensures the relay between the patient and his family;<br /> - The accompanying person allows the good collaboration between the other CTE provider teams with the patient. It transmits various information of the patient, as well as its evolution to the other teams of the CTE;<br /> - Thereafter, intervenes the reintegration of suspected or confirmed cases cured and removed from the CTE. The psychiatrist accompanies him in his community. He educates his community and his family, explaining that the person who has been cured of Ebola is not dangerous and can not infect anyone else with the Ebola Virus Disease;<br /> - This Tuesday, October 08, 2019, Butembo CTE also released non Ebola people who were admitted to CTE as suspected cases.

      VACCINATION

      • A vaccination ring was opened around the confirmed case of 06 October 2019 in the Oicha health zone in Tenambo, North Kivu;
      • Continuation of vaccination around the last case of 04 October 2019 in Andindulu village in the Lolwa health zone in Ituri;
      • Continuation of the vaccination of newly recruited front-line staff in the Reference Hospitals of Katwa and Kyondo Health Zones;
      • Launch of Local Polio Immunization Days integrated with vitamin A supplementation and mebendazole deworming in 17 ZS of Butembo Antenna, most of which are Ebola virus-infected areas;
      • Since vaccination began on 8 August 2018, 235,389 people have been vaccinated;
      • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature rise) at the sanitary control points is 103,567,829 ;
      • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    7. On 2019-10-16 12:34:53, user GuyguyKabundi Tshima wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AS OF OCTOBER 10, 2019<br /> Friday, October 11, 2019<br /> Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,210, of which 3,096 confirmed and 114 probable. In total, there were 2,146 deaths (2032 confirmed and 114 probable) and 1028 people healed.<br /> 422 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> 2 new case confirmed at CTE in Ituri in Mandima;<br /> 2 new confirmed deaths, including 1 in North Kivu in Mabalako and 1 in Ituri in Mandima;<br /> 1 person healed out of CTE in Ituri in Mambasa;<br /> No health workers are among the newly confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 161 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths.

      NEWS

      President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo submits to sanitary control for the prevention of #Ebola Virus Disease at Beni Airport<br /> - The Head of State, Coordinator of the Multisectoral Committee for the Ebola Virus Epidemic Response (CMRE), President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo and his delegation were welcomed on Thursday, October 10, 2019 by the monitoring team at the entry points / sanitary control at Mavivi Airport in Beni, North Kivu Province. President Tshisekedi and his team have gone through all stages of health control at this point of entry to prevent Ebola Virus Disease;<br /> - The Ebola Virus Epidemic Response Coordination Team and a few members of the CMRE Technical Secretariat have been staying in Mambasa, Ituri province since Wednesday. It is in this part of the Democratic Republic of Congo that the last confirmed cases of #Ebola Virus Disease are concentrated;<br /> - This team, made up of the different experts in Ebola Virus Disease, has moved closer to Mambasa to coordinate closely the activities of the response;<br /> - Since they have been there, several activities have taken place, among which the release of 5 cured people from the ETC and a big meeting with all the partners of the response present in this sub-coordination. This meeting stems from the orientations to end the epidemic in this part of the DRC.

      VACCINATION

      • The symbolic vaccination of the local chief resisting the vaccination of Butama in the health zone of Mambasa in Ituri. Also in Ituri, continued immunization around two confirmed cases from 07 and 08 August 2019 in Biakato mine in Mandima with low participation due to community reluctance;
      • Immunization of front-line staff continued in the Kyondo and Kayna Reference Hospitals in North Kivu;
      • Continuation of Local Polio Vaccination Days integrated with Vitamin A supplementation and Mebendazole deworming in 17 health zones at the Butembo antenna in North Kivu;
      • Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 236,772 people have been vaccinated;

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature measurement ) at the sanitary control points is 104,765,252 ;
      • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic.
    8. On 2019-11-13 01:31:13, user Guyguy wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI AT NOVEMBER 11, 2019

      Tuesday, November 12, 2019<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 3,287, of which 3,169 confirmed and 118 probable. In total, there were 2,193 deaths (2075 confirmed and 118 probable) and 1067 people cured.<br /> • 545 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> • No new confirmed cases;<br /> • No new deaths of confirmed cases have been recorded;<br /> • No cured person has emerged from ETCs;<br /> • No health worker is among the new confirmed cases. The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 161 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths;

      NEWS

      Organization of a press conference in Goma on the introduction of the second Ebola vaccine in the Democratic Republic of Congo

      • The coordination of the epidemic response to Ebola Virus Disease organized this Tuesday, November 12, 2019, jointly with the International Non-governmental Organization Médecins Sans Frontières of France (MSF / France), a press conference on introduction of the second Ebola vaccine, Johnson & Johnson, at the Karibu Hotel in Goma, capital of North Kivu Province;<br /> • During this press conference, the coordinator of the response, Prof. Steve Ahuka Mundeke, announced that vaccination with this second vaccine will start on Thursday, November 14, 2019 in two health areas of Karisimbi in Goma, including Majengo and Kahembe. The beginning of the vaccination will thus precede the official launch of the introduction of this vaccine which will intervene in the days to come;<br /> • This vaccine will be administered intramuscularly in two doses with an interval of 56 days. It targets adults and children over twelve months old. It has a strong immune response and its dose has the advantage of increasing this response by making it more sustainable in order to protect populations against a possible Ebola outbreak, according to a member of the consortium that took care of the study of this vaccine, Dr Hugo Kavunga, project manager INRB, member of the consortium;<br /> • Everyone is eligible for this vaccine, including children over the age of one, even pregnant and lactating women. In addition, for women of childbearing age, they will be offered a pregnancy test. Those who do not want it, will always be vaccinated. Pregnant women will be followed, said Vaccine Project Coordinator at MSF / France, Dr Véronique Urbaniak;<br /> • The choice of vaccination site was made after several studies and it is in order to protect the population against possible epidemics that Majengo and Kahembe were selected;<br /> • The vaccine is called Ad26.Zebov / MVA-BN-Filo. It is of Belgian-American origin and is named Johnson and Johnson. It has already been used in Sierra Leone in West Africa, Uganda and soon Rwanda. This second vaccine complements the first in-use vaccine in belt strategy and has already saved more than 3,000 people to date;<br /> • In addition to the speakers, two other members of the consortium took part in the press conference, including the London Shool Project Investigator Dr. Dan Baush and the Epicenter's Immunization Coordinator Marie Burton.

      VACCINATION

      • Preparation of the launch of the 2nd Ebola vaccine, J & J in Kahembe and Majengo Health Areas in Karisimbi, Goma, North Kivu;<br /> • 37 participants, including 4 high-risk contacts, 6 contacts, 7 CPs and 20 front-line staff, were vaccinated from the confirmed case of 09 November 2019 in the Bingo Health Area in Mabalako, North Kivu;<br /> • Since vaccination began on August 8, 2018, 250,622 people have been vaccinated;<br /> • The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 20 May 2018.

      MONITORING AT ENTRY POINTS

      • Disruption of activities at PoC VIRENDI (SC BUTEMBO) following clashes between FARDC soldiers and incivists not otherwise identified.<br /> • Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of travelers checked (temperature rise) at the sanitary control points is 116,184,525 ;<br /> • To date, a total of 111 entry points (PoE) and sanitary control points (PoCs) have been set up in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri to protect the country's major cities and prevent the spread of the epidemic in neighboring countries.

      As a reminder, the recommendations of the MULTISECTORAL COMMITTEE OF THE RESPONSE TO EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE are as follows:

      1. Follow basic hygiene practices, including regular hand washing with soap and water or ashes;
      2. If an acquaintance from an epidemic area comes to visit you and is ill, do not touch her and call the North Kivu Civil Protection toll-free number;
      3. If you are identified as a contact of an Ebola patient, agree to be vaccinated and followed for 21 days;
      4. If a person dies because of Ebola, follow the instructions for safe and dignified burials. It is simply a funeral method that respects funerary customs and traditions while protecting the family and community from Ebola contamination.
      5. For all health professionals, observe the hygiene measures in the health centers and declare any person with symptoms of # Ebola (fever, diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue, anorexia, bleeding).<br /> If all citizens respect these health measures recommended by the Secretariat, it is possible to quickly end this 10th epidemic
    1. On 2020-04-18 16:52:45, user novictim wrote:

      Also worth considering is the timeline for treatment. HCQ proposed mode of action is not just its anit-inflammatory properties but its ability to act as a zinc ionophore. Zinc ions then interfere in viral replication. So you have to use Hydroxychloroquine early in the infection to see the maximum benefit. If you give it after lung epithelium and T-cells are already compromised, the benefit is less significant.<br /> I look forward to the trial results involving prophylaxis with HCQ and the use of it at the first signs of COVID-19.

    1. On 2020-05-08 13:34:09, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Title: <br /> Homologous protein domains in SARS-CoV-2 and measles, mumps and rubella viruses:<br /> preliminary evidence that MMR vaccine might provide protection against COVID-19<br /> The main findings of the article: <br /> This work aimed to determine whether measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination might provide protection against COVID-19. The authors examined: 1) sequence homologies between SARS-CoV2 and measles, mumps and rubella viruses; 2) correlations between MMR vaccination coverage, rubella antibody titers, and COVID-19 case fatality in European countries. <br /> Sequences of measles, mumps and rubella virus, which are component of MMR vaccine, were aligned to SARS-CoV-2 to identify homologous domains at the amino acid level. The Macro domain of rubella virus p150, a protease) aligned with SARS-CoV-2 Macro domain of non-structural protein 3 (NSP3), also a protease, at 29 % amino acids identity, suggest similarity in protein folding. Residues conserved in both strains include surface-expressed residues and residues required for ADP-ribose binding, and ADP-ribose 1” phosphatase (ADRP) enzymatic activity. Although the Macro domains are within a cytoplasmic non-structural protein, the authors speculate that they could contribute to vaccine antigenicity if released upon cell lysis. Measles and mumps, both paramyxoviruses, showed structural homology between their F proteins and SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Both F proteins and spike proteins are responsible for fusion of viral and cellular membrane. The sequence identity was 20 % over a 369-amino acid region and surface-exposed residues were well conserved.<br /> The examination of historic vaccination schedules or recommendations for MMR vaccination in Italy, Spain and Germany revealed that populations who are currently in the age group of 40-49 years old in Germany, 30-39 years old in Spain, and 20-29 years old in Italy were vaccinated. However, the rubella vaccine was introduced for pre-adolescent girls and campaigns for women in child bearing age were conducted early 1970s to 90s in each countries. The latter might cover the women who are currently in the age group of 59-69 years old. If MMR is indeed protected for COVID-19 fatality, the above analysis would suggest that older populations and males are both more likely to die from Covid-19, and less likely to be seropositive for rubella specific immunity. <br /> On the other hand, analysis of anti-rubella IgG titers in moderate and severe COVID-19 patients showed increased levels of rubella IgG in severe patients. To argue that the increase in rubella antibodies in severe COVID-19 was not due to a generalized increased antibody response, the authors mentioned that there was no increase in varicella zoster virus antibody titers in a small subset of patients analyzed. While increase of anti-rubella IgM was not clearly observed in both severe and mild patients, anti-rubella IgG antibody titers were increased in patients who had been admitted for a period of less than 7 days. The authors suggest that IgG titers trend with disease burden on the basis of the shared homology between SARS-CoV2 and rubella virus.<br /> Critical analysis of the study: <br /> This study demonstrated shared homologies between SARS-CoV2 and MMR viruses that could support the hypothesis that previous MMR vaccination protects against fatality in COVID-19 patients. The authors suggested that older populations and males were less likely to be seropositive for rubella and this might be related to their higher mortality rate. On the other hand, they found that anti-rubella IgG was higher in severe patients than mild patients with COVID-19. Since there was no information about the demographics of severe and mild patients, especially the percentage of male patients and average age to analyze the relationship between severity and MMR vaccination history, the data appears inconclusive. Because of the homology in spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 and F protein of paramyxoviruses, which are important for virus entry in the host cells, measuring cross-reactive anti-measles and anti-mumps antibody titers may provide more information on whether MMR vaccination has the potential to protect against COVID-19. <br /> The importance and implications for the current epidemics<br /> The homology search for conserved domains among different virus strains and vaccine antigens may provide helpful information to develop vaccine antigens that elicit cross-reactive immunity to several viruses. While it is not clear at present if MMR vaccination reduces or not the severity of COVID-19, given the high coverage of MMR vaccination and the potential for vaccines to modulate innate immunity, this question deserves further investigation.

    1. On 2020-05-11 01:41:57, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Main findings<br /> The need for improved cellular profiling of host immune responses seen in COVID-19 has required the use of high-throughput technologies that can detail the immune landscape of these patients at high granularity. To fulfill that need, Chua et al. performed 3’ single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNAseq) on nasopharyngeal (or pooled nasopharyngeal/pharyngeal swabs) (NS), bronchiolar protected specimen brush (PSB), and broncheoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples from 14 COVID-19 patients with moderate (n=5) and critical (n=9, all admitted to the ICU; n=2 deaths) disease, according to WHO criteria. Four patients (n=2 with moderate COVID-19; n=2 with critical disease, n=1 on short-term non-invasive ventilation and n=1 on long-term invasive ventilation), were sampled longitudinally up to four times at various time points post symptom onset. In addition, multiple samples from all three respiratory sites (NS, PSB, BAL) were collected from two ICU patients on long-term mechanical ventilation, one of whom died a few days after the sampling procedure. Moreover, three SARS-CoV-2 negative controls, one patient diagnosed with Influenza B as well as two volunteers described as “supposedly healthy”, were included in this study with a total of n=17 donors and n=29 samples.

      Clustering analysis of cells isolated from NS samples identified all major epithelial cell types, including basal, scretory, ciliated, and FOXN4+ cells as well as ionocytes; of particular note, a subset of basal cells was found to have a positive IFN? transcriptional signature, suggesting prior activation of these cells by the host immune system, likely in response to viral injury. In addition to airway epithelial cells, 6 immune cell types were identified and further subdivided into a total of 12 different subsets. These included macrophages (moMacs, nrMacs), DCs (moDCs, pDCs), mast cells, neutrophils, CD8 T (CTLs, lytic T cells), B, and NKT cells; however, seemingly neither NK nor CD4 T cells were detected and the Treg population lacked canonical expression of FoxP3, so it is unclear whether this population is truly represented.

      Interestingly, secretory and ciliated cells in COVID-19 patients were shown to have upregulated ACE2 and coexpression with at least one S-priming protease indicative of viral infection; ACE2 expression on respiratory target cells increased by 2-3 fold in COVID-19 patients, compared to healthy controls. Notably, ciliated cells were mostly ACE2+/TMRPSS+, while secretory and FOXN4+ cells were predominantly ACE2+/TMRPSS+/FURIN+; accordingly, secretory and ciliated cells contained the highest number of SARS-CoV-2 infected cells. However, viral transcripts were generally low 10 days post symptom onset (as would be expected based on reduced viral shedding in later stages of COVID-19). Similarly, the authors report very low counts of immune cell-associated viral transcripts that are likely accounted for by the results of phagocytosis or surface binding. However, direct infection of macrophages by SARS-CoV-2 has previously been reported 1,2. Here, it is possible that these differences could be due to the different clinical stages and non-standardized gene annotation.

      Pseudotime mapping of the obtained airway epithelial data suggested a direct differentiation trajectory from basal to ciliated cells (in contrast to the classical pathway from basal cells via secretory cells to terminally differentiated ciliated cells), driven by interferon stimulated genes (ISGs). Moreover, computational interaction analysis between these ACE2+ secretory/ciliated cells and CD8 CTLs indicated that upregulation of ACE2 receptor expression on airway epithelial cells might be induced by IFN?, derived from these lymphocytes. However, while IFN-mediated ACE2 upregulation in response to viral infections may generally be considered a protective component of the antiviral host response, the mechanism proposed here may be particularly harmful in the context of critical COVID-19, rendering these patients more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

      Moreover, direct comparisons between moderate and critical COVID-19 patient samples revealed fewer tissue-resident macs and monocyte-derived dendritic cells but increased frequencies of non-resident macs and neutrophils in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Notably, neutrophil infiltration in COVID-19 samples was significantly greater than in those obtained from healthy controls and the Influenza B patient. In addition, patients with moderate disease and those on short-term non-invasive ventilation had similar gene expression profiles (each n=1),; whereas, critical patients on long-term ventilation expressed substantially higher levels of pro-inflammatory and chemoattractant genes including TNF, IL1B, CXCL5, CCL2, and CCL3. However, no data on potentially decreasing gene expression levels related to convalescence were obtained. Generally, these profiles support findings of activated, inflammatory macrophages and CTLs with upregulated markers of cytotoxicity in critically ill COVID-19 patients. These inflammatory macrophages and CTLs may further contribute to pathology via apoptosis suggested by high CASP3 levels in airway epithelial cells. Interestingly, the CCL5/CCR5 axis was enriched among CTLs in PSB and BAL samples obtained from moderate COVID-19 patients; recently, a disruption of that axis using leronlimab was reported to induce restoration of the CD8 T cell count in critically ill COVID-19 patients 3.

      Lastly, in critically ill COVID-19 patients, non-resident macrophages were found to have higher expression levels of genes involved in extravasation processes such as ITGAM, ITGAX and others. Conversely, endothelial cells were shown to express VEGFA and ICAM1, which are typical markers of macrophage/immune cell recruitment. This finding supports the notion that circulating inflammatory monocytes interact with dysfunctional endothelium to infiltrate damaged tissues. Of note, in the patient with influenza B, cellular patterns and expression levels of these extravasation markers were profoundly different from critically ill COVID-19.

      Importantly, the aforementioned immune cell subsets were found equally in all three respiratory site samples obtained from two multiple-sample ICU donors, and there were no differences, with regards to upper vs. lower respiratory tract epithelial ACE2 expression. However, viral loads were higher in BAL samples as compared to NS samples, and lower respiratory tract macrophages showed overall greater pro-inflammatory potential, corresponding to higher CASP3 levels found in PSB and BAL samples. In general, the interactions between host airway epithelial and immune cells described in this preprint likely contribute to viral clearance in mild and moderate disease but might be excessive in critical cases and may therefore contribute to the observed COVID-19 immunopathology. Based on these findings and the discussed immune cell profiles above, the authors suggest the use of immunomodulatory therapies targeting chemokines and chemokine receptors, such as blockade of CCR1 by itself or in combination with CCR5, to treat COVID-19 associated hyperinflammation.

      Limitations<br /> Technical<br /> In addition to the small sample size, it is unclear whether samples were collected at similar time points throughout the disease course of each patient, even with time since diagnosis normalized across patients. While sampling dates in relation to symptom onset are listed, it remains somewhat unclear what kind of samples were routinely obtained per patient at given time points (with the exception of the two patients with multiple sampling). Moreover, it would have been of particular interest (and technically feasible) to collect additional swabs from the convalescent ICU patient to generate a kinetic profile of chemokine gene expression levels, with respect to disease severity as well as onset of recovery. Again, with an n=1, the number of cases per longitudinal/multiple sampling subgroup is very limited, and, in addition to the variable sampling dates, overall time passed since symptom onset as well as disease symptoms and potential treatment (e.g. invasive vs non-invasive ventilation, ECMO therapy…) across all clinical subgroups, makes a comparative analysis rather difficult.

      It is important to note that a lack of standardized gene annotation across different studies contributes to a significant degree of variability in characterizations of immune landscapes found in COVID-19 patients. As a result, inter-study comparisons are difficult to perform. For instance, an analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing performed on bronchoalveolar lavage samples by Bost et al. identified lymphoid populations that were not found in the present study. These include several enriched subtypes of CD4+ T cells and NK cells, among others. Ultimately, these transcriptomic descriptions will still need to be furthered with additional follow-up studies, including proteomic analysis, to move beyond speculation and towards substantive hypotheses.

      Biological<br /> One additional limitation involved the use of the influenza B patient. Given that the patient suffered a rather mild form of the disease (no ICU admission or mechanical ventilation required, patient was discharged from hospital after 4 days) as opposed to the to authors’ assessment as a severe case, this patient may have served as an acceptable positive control for mild and some moderate COVID-19 patients. However, this approach should still be viewed cautiously, since the potential differences of pulmonary epithelial and immune cell pathologies induced by influenza compared to critical COVID-19 patients are still unclear. Moreover, it seems that one of the presumably healthy controls was recovering from a viral infection. Since it is unclear how a recent mild viral infection might have changed the respiratory cellular compartment and immune cell phenotype, this donor should have been excluded or not used as a healthy reference control.

      Significance<br /> In general, this is a well-conducted study and provides a number of corroborative and interesting findings that contribute to our understanding of immune and non-immune cell heterogeneity in COVID-19 pathogenesis. Importantly, observations on ACE2 and ACE2 coexpression in airway epithelial cells generally corroborate previous reports. In addition, direct differentiation of IFN?+ basal cells to ACE2-expressing ciliated cells, as suggested by trajectory analysis, is a very interesting hypothesis, which, if confirmed, might contribute to progression of disease severity. The findings described in this preprint further suggest an important role for chemokines and chemokine receptors on immune cells, most notably macrophages and CTLs, which is highly relevant.

      This review was undertaken by Matthew D. Park and Verena van der Heide as part of a project by students, postdocs and faculty at the Immunology Institute of the Icahn school of medicine, Mount Sinai.

      References<br /> 1. Chen, Y. et al. The Novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Directly Decimates Human Spleens and Lymph Nodes. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS) (2020) doi:10.1101/2020.03.27.20045427.<br /> 2. Bost, P. et al. Host-viral infection maps reveal signatures of severe COVID-19 patients. Cell (2020) doi:10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.006.<br /> 3. Patterson, B. K. et al. Disruption of the CCL5/RANTES-CCR5 Pathway Restores Immune Homeostasis and Reduces Plasma Viral Load in Critical COVID-19. medRxiv (2020).

    1. On 2020-05-13 08:14:17, user Erwan Gueguen wrote:

      The methodology used raises several questions:

      • Why were 6 patients with a negative PCR included in a study on Sars CoV2, which means we don't even know if they have the disease? They should have been excluded from the study.

      • In Figure 1 describing the flowchart of the studied population, Patients were divided into 2 groups. A HCQ + AZI group (n = 45), and an "other regimen" group (n = 87). It is very strange to find in this "other regimen" group patients who have not all undergone the same treatment. For example, there are 9 patients who also took HCQ+AZ but for a shorter period of time before transfer to ICU or death, 14 patients who took lopinavir/ritonavir, and even 28 patients who took AZI alone. This group is therefore not a control group since patients who have taken the same drugs are in the two groups being compared.

      • Following the description of these 2 groups, we discover figure 2 which compares not these 2 groups but 3 groups. The "other regimens" group was divided into 2 groups AZI (n=26) and SOC (n=61) (SOC = standard of care which includes no targeted therapy, or lopinavir/ritonavir or treatment received <48h until unfavorable outcome (transfer to ICU or death). Why 2 patients were removed from the AZI group? (figure 1 n=28, but n=26 in figure 2). Figures suggest that 2 patients from the AZI group were placed in the SOC group. This could change the statistical analysis of the data. It is essential that the authors clarify this point because the results are not publishable as they stand.

      • finally, table 1 shows 2 groups. Statistics are made on 2 groups but actually also on 3 groups for the therapeutic data (see table 2).

      Conclusion: The study suffers from numerous methodological biases that make it difficult to interpret the data. The groups are not equivalent and the control group is made up of an agglomeration of patients who have undergone different treatments including HCQ+AZI treatment. It seems to me indispensable that the authors clarify the points raised before a submission to a peer-reviewed journal.

    1. On 2021-07-24 06:42:21, user itellu3times wrote:

      Need to compare with background - what is the vaccination rate for Houston, during the period of the study? This may completely dominate the purported findings.

    1. On 2020-03-21 23:09:04, user Moevi wrote:

      Do we have any information regarding the patient ethnicity?

      Indeed, the authors have chosen to use a study published in 2015 looking at ABO distribution among the Han population in Wuhan (unfortunately i was not able to find this study). However, if my understanding of the ABO group system is correct the distribution of ABO antigen may vary a lot depending on the ethnicity.

    2. On 2020-04-23 15:54:21, user MacS wrote:

      Didn't notice this was discussed already so adding to the fray. It's well known and accepted Type O blood is also less susceptible to Malaria ( https://www.sciencedaily.co... "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150309124113.htm)") And for what it is worth, we know the Malaria drug has decent favorable results. I don't see the WHO drawing on this correlation in their study of COVID19 although they are or should have the goods on the blood type difference with Malaria and should be taking all of this into consideration in countries in Africa that have now acquired a larger group of Type 'O' blood (herd immunity?)

    1. On 2020-05-14 16:32:24, user Anita Bandrowski wrote:

      "Hi, we're trying to improve preprints using automated screening tools. Here's some stuff that our tools found. If we're right then you might want to look at your text, but if we're not then we'd love it if you could take a moment to reply and let us know so we can improve the way our tools work. Have a nice day. Specifically, your paper (DOI:10.1101/2020.02.15.20023457); was checked for the presence of transparency criteria such as blinding, which may not be relevant to all papers, as well as research resources such as statistical software tools, cell lines, and open data.

      We did not detect information on sex as a biological variable, which is particularly important given known sex differences in COVID-19 (Wenham et al, 2020).

      We also screened for some additional NIH & journal rigor guidelines:<br /> IACUC/IRB: not detected ; randomization of experimental groups: not detected ; reduction of experimental bias by blinding: not detected ; analysis of sample size by power calculation: not detected .

      We found that you used the following key resources: cell lines (1) . We recommend using RRIDs so that others can tell exactly what research resources you used. You can look up RRIDs at rrid.site

      We did not find a statement about open data. We also did not find a statement about open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

      More specific comments and a list of suggested RRIDs can be found by opening the Hypothes.is window on this manuscript, direct link https://hyp.is/d1D3uI-sEeqy...<br /> References cited: https://tinyurl.com/y7fpsvzy"

    1. On 2020-10-13 21:45:00, user Isaque Silva wrote:

      The author was a past consultant of two companies that manufacturers hydroxychloroquine and yet consider himself enable, in a competing interest statement, to make such conclusion?? You must be kidding me.

    1. On 2020-03-24 23:10:14, user Godfree Roberts wrote:

      JANUARY 1 seems awfully late, if we are to believe multiple health officials:

      Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected. Test results worry experts as new cases emerge in Nigeria, Mexico and New Zealand Lorenzo TondoLast modified on Wed 18 Mar 2020 10.57 GMT. The Guardian

      "The new coronavirus may have circulated in northern Italy for weeks before it was detected, seriously complicating efforts to track and control its rapid spread across Europe. The claim follows laboratory tests that isolated a strain of the virus from an Italian patient, which showed genetic differences compared with the original strain isolated in China and two Chinese tourists who became sick in Rome." https://www.theguardian.com...

      NEXT ITEM: Massimo Galli, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Milan and director of infectious diseases at the Luigi Sacco hospital in Milan, said preliminary evidence suggested the virus could have been spreading below the radar in the quarantined areas.

      “I can’t absolutely confirm any safe estimate of the time of the circulation of the virus in Italy, but … some first evidence suggest that the circulation of the virus is not so recent in Italy,” he said, amid suggestions the virus may have been present since mid-January.

      The beginnings of the outbreak, which has now infected more than 821 people in the country and has spread from Italy across Europe, were probably seeded at least two or three weeks before the first detection and possibly before flights between Italy and China were suspended at the end of January, say experts.

      The findings will be deeply concerning for health officials across Europe who have so far concentrated their containment efforts on identifying individuals returning from high risk areas for the virus, including Italy, and people with symptoms as well as those who have come in contact with them.The new claim emerged as the World Health Organization warned that the outbreak was getting bigger and could soon appear in almost every country. The impact risk was now very high at a global level, it said.“The scenario of the coronavirus reaching multiple countries, if not all countries around the world, is something we have been looking at and warning against since quite a while,” a spokesman said.symptoms.https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...

    1. On 2020-03-25 03:16:39, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Main findings: Antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 S protein, the S1 subunit and the RBD (receptor-binding domain) were detected in all SARS-CoV-2 patient sera by 13 to 21 days post onset of disease. Antibodies specific to SARS-CoV N protein (90% similarity to SARS-CoV-2) were able to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 by PRNT (plaque reduction neutralizing test). SARS-CoV-2 serum cross-reacted with SARS-CoV S and S1 proteins, and to a lower extent with MERS-CoV S protein, but not with the MERS-CoV S1 protein, consistent with an analysis of genetic similarity. No reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigens was observed in serum from patients with ubiquitous human CoV infections (common cold) or to non-CoV viral respiratory infections.

      Analysis: Authors describe development of a serological ELISA based assay for the detection of neutralizing antibodies towards regions of the spike and nucleocapsid domains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Serum samples were obtained from PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients. Negative control samples include a cohort of patients with confirmed recent exposure to non-CoV infections (i.e. adenovirus, bocavirus, enterovirus, influenza, RSV, CMV, EBV) as well as a cohort of patients with confirmed infections with ubiquitous human CoV infe<br /> ctions known to cause the common cold. The study also included serum from patients with previous MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV zoonotic infections. This impressive patient cohort allowed the authors to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the development of their in-house ELISA assay. Of note, seroconversion was observed as early as 13 days following COVID-19 onset but the authors were not clear how disease onset was determined.

      Importance: Validated serological tests are urgently needed to map the full spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the population and to determine the kinetics of the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, clinical trials are ongoing using plasma from patients who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 as a therapeutic option. An assay such as the one described in this study could be used to screen for strong antibody responses in recovered patients. Furthermore, the assay could be used to screen health care workers for antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 as personal protective equipment continues to dwindle. The challenge going forward will be to standardize and scale-up the various in-house ELISA’s being developed in independent laboratories across the world.

    1. On 2020-03-31 18:56:14, user Igor H. wrote:

      I would suggest verifying the calculations. Data for Colorado do not fit.<br /> Here is the comparison of actual reported hospitalizations and your prediction for 3/18-3/29:

      First column after date are actual hospitalizations (not new per day but all covid hospitalized patients on the day) reported by Colorado Dept of Public Health - https://covid19.colorado.go... - and the right column is your predicted "allbed_mean" which is supposed to be “Mean covid beds needed by day” (I assume that you mean number of beds needed on the particular date, not a cumulative number from the beginning – patients get discharged or die)

      3/18/2020 26 158<br /> 3/19/2020 38 186<br /> 3/20/2020 44 268<br /> 3/21/2020 49 323<br /> 3/22/2020 58 455<br /> 3/23/2020 72 573<br /> 3/24/2020 84 716<br /> 3/25/2020 148 882<br /> 3/26/2020 184 1069<br /> 3/27/2020 239 1294<br /> 3/28/2020 274 1542<br /> 3/29/2020 326 1841

      When I look closely, Allbed_mean on the day is the sum of (admis_mean) from the beginning to that day.

      This is how you project ***new*** admissions (admis_mean) for the same time period:

      69<br /> 28<br /> 88<br /> 56<br /> 137<br /> 124<br /> 149<br /> 178<br /> 209<br /> 242<br /> 278<br /> 317

      This is also hugely overestimated and the numbers more resemble TOTAL number of hospitalized patients on the day.

      Also, spotcheck for New York State does not match. See attache https://uploads.disquscdn.c... d images (prediction and actual reported number this morning)<br /> https://uploads.disquscdn.c...

      It appears that (Allbed_mean) is only correct if 100% of cases need hospitalization, which is not the case in the US (it was the case in China). So, actual number of beds needed seems to be 20% of the predicted number, which much more closely corresponds with reported data.

      Igor Huzicka

    1. On 2020-04-23 17:35:06, user Hugh DeWitter wrote:

      PCR test the autopsy lung tissue for M.genitalium DNA. <br /> See @hughdewitter on Twitter for studies in support.

      PCR your patients' first void urine, before issuing antibiotics, as a predictor of severe Covid-19. Mgen resistance to macrolides and FQNs seen at 100 and 90%, steals iron (FUR), subclinical, never found by culture, and a retroactive study found that as far back as 1974 it was found in 25% of lungs of a random cohort. Before PCR it tested out as M.pneumoniae, genetically a nearly identical pathogen. Now we only PCR for M.pneumoniae.

      Mycoplasma Genitalium thrives in the lung subclinically, especially paired with smoking, pollution, or robust old biofilms. Find that Zn abates symptoms, no one under 14 gets severe disease, vertical transmission, 40pct of infected convert to chronic subclinical carriers after an azithro course, hemolytic anemia from FUR iron theft, adheres to erythrocytes, deposits antigen on erythrocytes, more male carriers/fatalities, sickle cell vulnerability, no increased risk for HIV+ patients (recent antibiotic courses), migrates through tissue, migrates hematogenously, 35 different Mgen isolates, samples vulnerable to dessication, refrigeration causes 27pct PCR false negatives. See the study compilation posted on Twitter @hughdewitter.

    1. On 2020-04-24 11:52:01, user ??? wrote:

      Hello, my name is Eunno An, lived in incheon, korea.<br /> Would you mind sharing the dataset of pneumonia and COVID 19 ct image?<br /> The purpose is building a neural network classifying normal, pneumonia, COVID19.<br /> Apparently, non-commercial! It is Only study purpose.<br /> Thank you!

    1. On 2020-04-24 14:40:59, user Tomas Hull wrote:

      "New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says"<br /> When false negatives were to be included - those who have undetectable levels of antibodies, mainly young population - it could mean that 30%, or more people in NY already have the antibodies...

      The study as well as Dr. John Ioannidis, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who have gone public with these findings, stand vindicated.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/0...

      Will herd immunity be achieved by the end of summer, or earlier, as predicted by another brilliant scientist, Dr, Wittkowski? It remains to be seen...

      https://www.medrxiv.org/con...

    2. On 2020-05-05 14:08:15, user buzzbree wrote:

      Beyond the seroprevelance conclusions of the study which are widely discussed, another very important issue that needs to be clarified by the authors is if the study fully adhered to Good Clinical Practice (GCP) standards. It is highly concerning that in the rush to publish the study- the authors may have not done so, and there is never an acceptable reason to do this- nor would an IRB agree.

      To be fully compliant with GCP the Stanford IRB really needed to be informed of the the email Jay Bhattacharya's wife (https://www.buzzfeednews.co... sent to potential subjects. The email had several erroneous statements- that the test was FDA approved (Its not) and they would know if they were now immune from COVID-19 and would know that they were <br /> free from getting sick and could no longer spread the virus. These statements could have impacted subject safety by encouraging riskier behavior (i.e. ignoring social distancing) from the study subjects if they believed that the test was FDA approved and a positive result was <br /> definitive proof of protective immunity.

      In the Buzzfeed article Dr. Bhattacharya has stated that he did not know about the email or <br /> approve of it, but he still had an ethical duty to report it to the IRB when he found out. There is only one line in manuscript stating that IRB approved the study- how the IRB addressed this email should be expounded upon in final manuscript given these new issues that have come to light. If the email was kept from the IRB, and instead the authors just capped enrollment from certain areas I do not see how that is compliant with GCP. These issues as they pertain to subject safety are not discussed in the manuscript- and they really should be.

      Relevant GCP sections:

      "3.3.8 Specifying that the<br /> investigator should promptly report to the IRB/IEC:(b) Changes <br /> increasing the risk to subjects and/or affecting significantly the <br /> conduct of the trial (see 4.10.2).

      4.10.2 The investigator should <br /> promptly provide written reports to the sponsor, the IRB/IEC (see 3.3.8)<br /> and, where applicable, the institution on any changes significantly <br /> affecting the conduct of the trial, and/or increasing the risk to <br /> subjects.2 2

      Reply

    1. On 2020-04-24 17:27:51, user dak wrote:

      How do you know that this is the virus and not RNA fragments produced in fighting the infections? If it was a whole virus, would you not expect the N1-N3 PCR amplicons to parallel each other? You could argue about the stability of RNA in waste water under conditions X, if that is known for this specific RNA fragment and the conditions X expected.

    1. On 2020-04-24 23:54:28, user Gunnar V Gunnarsson wrote:

      The conclution that HC causes higher risk of death is basically wrong due to a huge sampling bias. The problem lies in the fact that once people went on ventilators they where given HC or HC+AZ. This re-categorised the patients by increasing the number of high risk patients in the HC and HC+AZ groups making the No HC an invalid control group.

      Before ventilation the statistics was like this: (Table 4 in paper)

      HC: 90 - 9 (10.0%) deaths - 69 (76.6%) recover - 12 (13.3%) onto ventilation HC+AZ: 101 - 11 (10.9%) deaths - 83 (82.2%) recover - 7 (06.9%) onto ventilation No HC: 177 - 15 ( 8.4%) deaths - 137 (77.4%) recover - 25 (14.1%) onto ventilation

      We see that death-rate is about the same for all groups but HC+AZ seams to have the highest recovery rate but it might not be statistically significant.

      Now once people hit ventilation the re-categorisation occurs. More patients where given HC and HC+AZ which moved them from the No HC group to the HC or HC+AZ group. These groups therefore have a much higher % of ventilation patients because they where given the drugs after they hit ventilation.

      The following data can be derived from the paper but is not presented:<br /> Once people hit ventilation we have the following results.

      HC: 19 - 18 (95%) deaths - 1 (11%) recover HC+AZ: 19 - 14 (73%) deaths - 5 (27%) recover No HC: 6 - 3 (50%) deaths - 3 (50%) recover

      If you compare these 2 tables, you see that 25 patient with No HC reach ventilation. Once they reach ventilation, 19 of these where give HC or HC+AZ, thereby moved from the No HC group to the other two. 79.5% of all patients reaching ventilation died so arguably 14 patients that died where moved from the No HC group to the other 2 groups only once they reach the much higher risk state.

      Here are the number of people per group that got ventilation:

      HC: 97 - 19 (19.6%) got ventilation HC+AZ: 113 - 19 (16.8%) got ventilation No HC: 158 - 6 ( 3.4%) got ventilation

      So the conclusion that HC causes more death is basically wrong. All it shows is that people that need ventilation are more likely to die.

    1. On 2020-04-25 22:57:46, user wbgrant wrote:

      An additional article that supports the model study and should also be cited<br /> Prevalence and genetic diversity analysis of human coronaviruses among cross-border children.

      Liu P, Shi L, Zhang W, He J, Liu C, Zhao C, Kong SK, Loo JFC, Gu D, Hu L.

      Virol J. 2017 Nov 22;14(1):230. doi: 10.1186/s12985-017-0896-0.

    1. On 2020-04-26 15:15:14, user Retelska wrote:

      That's interesting and surely useful. it would be interesting to see a plot normalised by the number of infected persons, I don't know if you have this data. So I guess we would see that with flu 5% of seventy-years old or is hospitalized, whereas with covid, in addition to younger age, the proportion might be bigger. Also, about figure 1: Veterans group is certainly quite old. In Corea, hospitalized are very young, I suppose that much more young people were infected. I heard that infection spreads mostly between young, mobile people.

    1. On 2020-04-27 10:23:45, user Gareth Gerrard wrote:

      Hello - can I ask a question? For the data in Fig 1a, you performed a Mann-Whitney U test to show significance between the two methods. However, do these data include multiple paired samples? If so, since the data sets are not independent, would a Wilcoxon test have been more appropriate?

    1. On 2020-04-29 19:07:05, user Sinai Immunol Review Project wrote:

      Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, ACE-2, Renin-angiotensin system, Hypertension

      Main findings: The authors analyzed clinical data obtained from COVID-19 patients and categorized them based on the antihypertensive drugs they were taking. They then investigated its association with morbidity and mortality of pneumonic COVID-19 patients. ARBs were found to be associated with a reduced risk of pneumonia morbidity in a total of 70,346 patients in three studies. They found that in the elderly (age>65) group of COVID-19 patients with hypertension comorbidity, the risk of severe disease was significantly lower in patients who were on ARB anti-hypertensive drugs prior to hospitalization compared to patients who took no drugs. Also, through their meta-analysis of the literature, the authors reported that ARB anti-hypertensive drugs were associated with a decreased risk of severe disease in elderly COVID-19 patients.

      Critical Analyses:<br /> 1. Retrospective study with large potential for confounder bias. <br /> 2. Their inference that ARB is better than other anti-hypertensive drugs is based on literature met-analysis.<br /> 3. P-values could not be computed for some subsets because of very low/no patients in these categories(ref to table-1;ACEI, thiazide and BB)

      Relevance: Anti-hypertensive ARB drugs taken by COVID-19 patients prior to entering the hospital may be associated with improved morbidity and mortality of pneumonia in elderly COVID-19 patients although confounders may bias results.

      Reviewed by Divya Jha, PhD and edited by Robert Samstein, MD PhD, as part of a project by students, postdocs and faculty at the Immunology Institute of the Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai.

    1. On 2020-04-30 13:53:43, user Alan Beard wrote:

      Could the authors clarify about Smoking status please . Is it <br /> Current Smoker only OR <br /> Current and Former Smokers(which would include current Vapers)

    1. On 2020-05-01 17:34:20, user Leonid Schneider wrote:

      The IRB approval TJ-C20200113 is connected to this clinical trial:<br /> http://www.chictr.org.cn/sh...<br /> "A randomized, open-label, blank-controlled, multicenter trial for Shuang-Huang-Lian oral solution in the treatment of ovel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)"

      It is about Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and never mentions chloroquine or other drugs in the preprint, which in turn never mentions TCM. The registered trial had only 400 patients. The study above had 568 patients.

    1. On 2020-05-02 13:08:43, user Theo Sanderson wrote:

      "the later the fixed-duration quarantine is introduced, the smaller is the resulting final number of deaths at the end of the outbreak."

      It might be worth amending this sentence as it clearly cannot be strictly true (ad absurdum argument: a quarantine just before the last death of the epidemic would have negligible effect)

      More generally, considering the literature on the practicality of timing interventions, such as https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.... might be helpful, and a brief discussion of the fact that the choices outlined here are not the only ones, and that some countries have managed to suppress the epidemic without population quarantine might add to the preprint.

    1. On 2020-05-03 01:22:06, user tom wrote:

      Very fine work here addressing the pressing need for credible validation of a high-quality antibody test. One question that I have is whether the 2018-19 sera were confirmed to have a representative prevalence of common cold coronavirus antibodies. It would also be nice to see a serosurvey that follows up on its indicated positives with a good ELISA or even neutralization assay.

      Since the authors did not go into much interpretation, here are some back of envelope thoughts:

      Boise has a 228k population * 1.79% seroprevalence = 4080 estimated exposures.

      Ada County (in which Boise lies) has a 392k population, has had 663 recorded cases to date = 0.17% cumulative incidence, and has 17 recorded deaths = 2.6% CFR.

      As the rest of Ada County's incidence should lag Boise metro a good bit due to the ex-metro's lower population density and thus lower average Rt, Boise should account for more than its pro rata share of the county's covid burden. Let's say Boise accounts for 100 more than its 386 pro rata share of the county's 663 cases, and 3 more than its 10 pro rata share of the county's 17 deaths. 13 deaths out of Boise's 4080 serologically estimated exposures = 0.32% IFR. (That's about 8x lower than Ada County's CFR, which is roughly in line with the 10x differential between the cumulative reported case incidence and the detected seroprevalence). This is about half the estimated IFR using NYC's reported deaths and the recent serological survey there.

      Any IFR estimate presently inferrable from these data is provisional and likely to increase though, because while Idaho's new cases have been squelched long enough for essentially all past and current infections to have developed antibodies, it's quite likely that more deaths will occur among the currently active cases. I'd guess >25% more based on the histogram of reported case dates, so IFR likely >0.40%.

      Of course with only 13 deaths, any such IFR estimates are subject to a wide confidence bracket, and very sensitive to the accuracy in counting of deaths.

    1. On 2020-05-05 09:18:09, user ??? wrote:

      You may be interested in my paper "Growth Mechanism of Coronavirus ( How to Stop Spreading of COVID-19)" that predicts at temperatures above 25°C Coronavirus should have difficulty in replication because its outer cover melts and its RNA core decays at temperatures above 25°C. For instance, it explains why people catch cold more often in cold winter than in hot summer. You can read the paper in OCN.

    1. On 2020-05-05 19:12:27, user Nancy Lapid wrote:

      This is not the first case of placental SARS-CoV-2 infection. An earlier case was reported in JAMA April 30. "This case of miscarriage during the second trimester of pregnancy in a woman with COVID-19 appears related to placental infection with SARS-CoV-2, supported by virological findings in the placenta." https://jamanetwork.com/jou...

    2. On 2020-05-07 13:34:42, user Heather Lipkind wrote:

      Hoping this sparks more research. We have localized it within the placenta to the syncytiotrophoblast. Much to learn about SARS-CoV-2.

    1. On 2020-05-07 14:01:03, user Dr Gareth Davies (Gruff) wrote:

      Please note: the current version on medRxiv is an intial draft. A newer draft is being submitted soon with some important improvements and clarifications so we request everyone to please hold off on critiquing until the final draft is preprint submission is approved so that we don't waste time responding to issues that have already been addressed since draft 1.0. Many thanks!

    1. On 2020-05-13 10:37:19, user Keith baker wrote:

      PCOS females in ageing would be a interesting sub group. The genetics of AR and ACE2 play a role in their conditions when excess testosterone, gives rise to risk factors DBII, obesity and specifically male like adipose patterns, on torso and heart.

    1. On 2020-06-25 22:40:27, user Greg Green wrote:

      Mr. Cohen,

      Great read. to be clear, what is your best estimate, in terms of percentage, of the number of false positives for current mass testing?

    1. On 2020-06-26 22:11:48, user Hilda Bastian wrote:

      It's excellent that this trial was done, but the preprint is overly positive: given it's not clear that anyone either working in, or exercising in the gym, was infected, it's not possible to know if the hygiene and social distancing measures worked.

      There have been clusters of outbreaks related to gyms (for example in Japan and South Korea), and this needs to be discussed. Given that infected gym employees have been shown to have been the source of clusters, it's problematic that all employees weren't tested and considered more here.

      This trial report is missing key methodological information, such as the method of randomization. At one point, the authors refer to the trial's protocol, but do not provide a reference for it. (That level of detail on methodological issues isn't included in the ClinicalTrials.gov entry for the trial.)

      I think it's unfortunate that this was a non-inferiority trial, given the known risk of gym clusters. The bar was set too low for this trial. There was too much missing data on testing - nearly 20% of participants and nearly 10% of employees. The authors argue that disease is more critical than infection, but the risk of seeding clusters is a critical concern in gym re-opening.

    2. On 2020-06-28 05:19:24, user David Perkins wrote:

      This study is so flawed that it should be immediately withdrawn, and the study designers reeducated on how to run a study. The flaw is that it doesn't test for the following: "If workers or users at a gym have covid-19, can procedures be put in place at the gym to greatly reduce (or even eliminate) the spread of the disease to other workers or users at the gym?" (Said another way "Is is safe to go to a gym and work out?") To run such a study without the consent of the workers or users would be unethical (or most likely, illegal). Instead, a study was set up to see who knows what? Was it that the equipment or the building doesn't spread the disease? I am completely shocked that this study was carried out and that it had coverage in the NYTimes and other national publications. Because using people that are carriers of Covid-19 is unethical, a better experiment would be to use a non-lethal disease such as the common cold (or the flu) and try to determine which procedures at gyms minimizes its transmission.<br /> Again, this study did not determine if it was safe to use a gym. It showed nothing!

    1. On 2020-06-28 02:19:40, user LB wrote:

      I appreciate the difficult circumstances under which this study was conducted, but would like some clarification, because there are some discrepancies in the data. The text states that "All patients who needed supplemental oxygen therapy in the control group also required further ICU support." However, the table shows only 8 of the 16 requiring ICU support. This section, "Among 9 patients given DMB within the first week of onset of symptoms, only one patient required oxygen therapy. This patient was one of the two cases which deteriorated within 24 hours of DMB initiation." seems to indicate that two patients in the DMB group required ICU care, but only one is listed in the table.

    1. On 2020-06-29 01:07:28, user Dr. D. Miyazawa MD wrote:

      This is the revised second edition.

      Our hypothesis in this study is that face mask-wearing rates may be a significant factor for COVID-19 mortality, that obesity and old age are currently identified as the most relatively-independent factors for COVID-19 mortality, and that these three factors may be strong enough to "predict" mortality using means including Lasso regression to a considerable extent.To show the independence or causality of each factor, a multiple regression with a number of factors added to exclude confounding would be necessary, but that was not the goal of this study. Other studies aiming to identify predictors, or to show the independence of the factors of interest, for the difference among countries have done multiple regression analyses with a number of factors, but since the mechanism is currently largely unknown, the selection of factors other than the factors of interest would be close to random, making it of little significance to prove the true independence of the factors of interest.

    1. On 2020-04-11 01:07:55, user Moi wrote:

      Some stats about the situation in Germany and Chile (JHU numbers used):<br /> Delay \Psi around 13 (DE) and 14 (CL), resp, with quite small SD.<br /> Death rate \theta around 0,05 for both countries, constant since several weeks, far lower than your 14%

      These are of course only the visible cases, not quite your concern.

      Anyway, the numbers are different for different countries. Why?

      And not speaking about asians, who seem to have basically overcome it.

    1. On 2020-07-04 10:45:14, user MathaHi wrote:

      Confusing Terminology: on page 12: "We believe that the analysis in our study shows conclusively that COVID-19 epidemics grow according to the Gompertz Function and not the Sigmoid Function". I think the authors intended to set off the Gompertz Functions against Logistic Functions that are used when assuming that the rate of infection remains proportional to the product of the already infected population and the amount of still susceptible individuals. Logistic Functions as well as Gompertz Functions are both considered as special cases of Sigmoid Functions. Same issue at page 21 and 22.

      Furthermore, assuming that the rate of infection is proportional to the currently infectious population instead of the already infected population might partially explain why it is decreasing faster than with the logistic SI model, as infected individuals become Resistant. For those viral epidemiologists that require more explanation: heterogeneity in both individual and collective susceptibility does the rest.

    1. On 2019-06-28 18:46:32, user hkahn wrote:

      Congratulations on an ambitious study design. It would be great to have also a comparative cohort sampled from the general adult population, but that would be very costly. Perhaps you could attempt parallel analyses from the EPIC population cohorts in Germany.

      ANTHROPOMETRY:<br /> I didn't find many details, but surely the standing waist circumference (WC by the WHO protocol) will be included. I urge BeLOVE to consider adding the supine sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) to the phenotyping assessments. The SAD has been quickly, reliably measured by a portable sliding-beam caliper (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/dat... "http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhanes/nhanes_13_14/2013_Anthropometry.pdf)"). Studies in Sweden, Finland, India, Taiwan, Brazil, USA have demonstrated that SAD can serve to estimate the amount of visceral (intra-abdominal) adipose tissue. The supine SAD usually performs better than WC to identify dysglycemia, dyslipidemia, transaminase elevations, and hypertension. Since your participants will be supine for portions of the CRU assessment, you could inexpensively add the caliper measurement at that time.

      Your SAD values by the low-cost caliper could be compared with the more costly dimensions and VAT area (or volume) estimates extracted from your supine abdominal imaging.

      Population-based normative values for adult SAD are now available from Finland (Health 2000 Study) and from NHANES (2011-2016) in the USA. They confirm that SAD increases with age and tends to be larger for men than women.

      The indicator SAD/height ratio (SADHtR) yields values that are nearly identical for men and women; thus, SADHtR can be evaluated as a risk estimator for men and women (just as the BMI purports to serve for men and women equally). Population norms for SADHtR are available from Finland and the USA. From the initial 4 years of NHANES we have demonstrated that SADHtR is superior to WHtR (and much superior to BMI) for identifying adults with insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), hypertriglyceridemia, and increased values of Tg/HDLc or the TyG index (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go... "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6003239/)").

      I hope these thoughts will contribute to the success of the BeLOVE Study.

    1. On 2019-07-16 21:33:06, user David Ludwig wrote:

      One correction and one clarification:

      1. There are two errors (slight underestimates) in the upper bounds of the effect sizes in the abstract. The relevant sentence should read: “Estimated energy requirement was higher in the Low vs High group by models involving ITT (ranging from 181 [CI 8-353] to 246 [64-427] kcal/d; P<=0.04) and PP (ranging from 245 [43-446] to 323 [122-525] kcal/d; P<=0.02).” The data in Table 2 are correct.

      2. The full database will be publicly posted upon final publication of the manuscript in a peer-review journal.

    1. On 2019-07-19 16:09:15, user Guyguy wrote:

      EVOLUTION OF THE EBOLA EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI

      Thursday, July 18, 2019

      The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated 17 July 2019:

      Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 2,532, 2,438 confirmed and 94 probable. In total, there were 1,705 deaths (1,611 confirmed and 94 probable) and 718 people cured.<br /> 402 suspected cases under investigation;<br /> 10 new confirmed cases, including 4 in Beni, 2 in Butembo, 2 in Mandima, 1 in Vuhovi and 1 in Mutwanga;<br /> 7 new confirmed case deaths:<br /> 4 community deaths, 2 in Beni, 1 in Mandima and 1 in Vuhovi;<br /> 3 ETC deaths including 1 in Beni, 1 in Katwa and 1 in Mabalako;<br /> 1 person healed out of Ebola Treatment Center (ETC) Butembo.

      NEWS

      Cross-border collaboration<br /> Uganda's health authorities have launched investigations to find the contacts of a patient who died at the ETC in Beni on July 15, 2019, who had spent a day in Kasese district in Uganda a few days earlier. The patient is a Beni shopkeeper who went to the Mpondwe market in Kasese on Thursday, July 11 before returning to Beni on Friday, July 12. She was a regular at the Kasese market where she bought her goods, including fish.<br /> To enter Uganda, she did not go through a formal entry point where there was a health check, which did not allow health teams to detect her. However, after her admission to the ETC of Beni, she informed the medical teams of her trip to Kasese and the teams then alerted the Ugandan authorities. During her visit to the market, she would have vomited four times, increasing the risk of contamination of people who had been in direct contact with her. So, the Ugandan Ministry of Health and WHO launched the investigation in Kasese to identify all contacts and vaccinate them.

      Point of entry surveillance<br /> From now on, the Port of Entry Monitoring Team will operate 24 hours a day at Goma International Airport. This surveillance began this Thursday, July 18, 2019.<br /> Port of Entry monitoring teams work night and day to find contacts from confirmed cases traveling in the area. It was the teams at the OPRP Health Checkpoint in the Nyragongo Health Zone who intercepted two bikers who had transported the deceased pastor and his mother. The two bikers were then directed to the vaccination teams to protect themselves against the disease. In general, when contacts from affected areas attempt to travel to Goma or Bunia and are intercepted at a checkpoint, they are usually returned to their original health zone to complete their 21-day follow-up period.

      Minister of Health on mission in Eastern DRC<br /> The Minister of Health, Dr. Oly Ilunga Kalenga arrived in Goma this Thursday, July 18, 2019. He spent the day on the ground to meet the different teams responsible for protecting the city against the virus. He began his visit through the Great Northern Control Point, called the OPRP, located in the Nyragongo Health Zone where the pastor from Butembo passed. In the same health zone, he also visited the new Ebola treatment center (ETC) still under construction. This ETC, built by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), will have a capacity of 60 beds.<br /> Its mission will continue throughout North Kivu and Ituri to ensure the proper conduct of the response.

      Press Conference in Goma: Minister of Health reassured people<br /> The coordination of the response held a press conference on Thursday in Goma following the WHO statement on the public health emergency of international concern.<br /> The Minister of Health reassured the population that the response teams and health staff in Goma City had been preparing for the arrival of sick people from areas affected by the epidemic. . Thus the person was very quickly identified and isolated, he said, adding that all the people who were in contact with this case were found and vaccinated. He took the opportunity to congratulate the health center nurse Afia Himbi who had quickly recognized this case and promised to meet him during his stay in Goma.<br /> He called on caregivers to remain vigilant and attentive. To the population, he recommended the respect of the measures of hygiene, the call of the green number if a relative is sick, the agreement to be vaccinated and to be followed during 21 days when one is identified like contact and the respect for safe and dignified burials.<br /> During this press conference, Dr. Oly Ilunga also referred to the statement of the international expert committee on the public health emergency. For the Minister of Health, the DRC welcomed this statement, noting that for the DRC, the epidemic is a public health emergency with a risk of regional spread since its declaration in August 2018. "It is in this spirit coordinating the response has worked with international partners, such as WHO, UNICEF and others, "he said.<br /> He also pointed out that this declaration is of greater importance for the neighboring countries of the DRC. He reassured his foreign counterparts of the intensification of surveillance in the DRC. He recalled that WHO has advised against closing borders and restricting international movements of the population. He hopes that this declaration will not have too much impact on the lives of the population.

      THE RESPONSE TO THE OUTBREAK

      165,907 Vaccinated persons<br /> The only vaccine to be used in this outbreak is the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine, manufactured by the pharmaceutical group Merck, following approval by the Ethics Committee in its decision of 19 May 2018.

      76 001 290<br /> Controlled people<br /> 80 entry points (PoE) and operational health checkpoints (PoC)

      137 Contaminated health workers<br /> One health worker, vaccinated, is one of the new confirmed cases of Mandima.<br /> The cumulative number of confirmed / probable cases among health workers is 137 (5% of all confirmed / probable cases), including 41 deaths.

    2. On 2019-07-21 06:26:16, user Guyguy wrote:

      ENGLISH

      OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE RELATED TO THE EPIDEMIC OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN EASTERN DRC

      1. The Democratic Republic of the Congo takes note of the statement by the World Health Organization (WHO) that the current epidemic is a public health emergency of international concern and endorses the recommendations of the WHO Director-General not to impose travel and trade restrictions and stigmatization of populations already in need of assistance.

      2. The Democratic Republic of the Congo reiterates its strong commitment to continue the response to the Ebola virus epidemic and to strengthen cross-border control and control of major internal roads to ensure that no cases are omitted or escapes from the surveillance teams.

      3. The response to the Ebola Virus Disease outbreak is now under the direct supervision of His Excellency the President of the Republic. To this end, it was decided to entrust the responsibility of the Technical Secretariat of the Multisectoral Committee to a team of experts under the direction of Professor Jean Jacques MUYEMBE TAMFUM.

      4. This team of experts is responsible for coordinating all the activities for implementing the Ebola response strategy. The Technical Secretariat is in charge of putting in place all the innovative measures that are urgent and indispensable for the rapid control of the epidemic.

      5. His Excellency the President of the Republic reassures the Congolese people and the neighboring countries that the measures currently taken in connection with the response to the Ebola Virus Disease in the DRC are likely to eradicate this epidemic.

      Kinshasa, July 20th, 2019.

      Source: Office of the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

      ********************************<br /> FRENCH

      COMMUNIQUE OFFICIEL EN RAPPORT AVEC L'EPIDEMIE DE LA MALADIE A VIRUS EBOLA A L'EST DE LA RDC

      1. La République Démocratique du Congo prend acte de la déclaration de l'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (OMS) faisant de l'épidémie actuelle une urgence de santé publique de portée internationale et fait siennes les recommandations du Directeur Général de l'OMS de ne pas imposer des restrictions des voyages et de commerce ainsi que la stigmatisation des populations se trouvant déjà dans le besoin d'une assistance.

      2. La République Démocratique du Congo réitère son ferme engagement à poursuivre la riposte à l'épidémie de la Maladie à virus Ebola et à renforcer le contrôle transfrontalier et celui des principales routes internes afin de veiller à ce qu'aucun cas ne soit omis ou n'échappe aux équipes de surveillance.

      3. La conduite de la riposte à l'épidémie de la Maladie à virus Ebola se fait désormais sous la supervision directe de Son Excellence Monsieur le Président de la République. A cet effet, il est décidé de confier la responsabilité du Secrétariat Technique du Comité Multisectoriel à une équipe d'experts, sous la direction du Professeur Jean Jacques MUYEMBE TAMFUM.

      4. Cette équipe d'experts a pour mission d'assurer la coordination de l'ensemble des activités de mise en oeuvre de la stratégie de riposte à la Maladie à virus Ebola. Le Secrétariat Technique est chargé de mettre en place toutes les mesures innovantes urgentes et indispensables au contrôle rapide de l'épidémie.

      5. Son Excellence Monsieur le Président de la République rassure les populations congolaises et les pays voisins que les mesures actuellement prises en rapport avec la riposte à la Maladie à virus Ebola en RDC sont de nature à éradiquer cette épidémie.

      Fait à Kinshasa, le 20 juillet 2019.

      Source: Cabinet du Président de la République Démocratique du Congo

    1. On 2020-02-03 16:29:21, user Sarah wrote:

      Hi, I'm not sure why you use the study 3 (Read et al.2020) estimate at 3.8. Their estimate is 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39-4.13). Is it an error?

    1. On 2020-02-15 21:55:51, user Nate wrote:

      It does need to be pointed out that this is Pre-Print at this point in time. It still needs to go through peer-review, etc., to be published.

      That said, if this research is borne out/validated then this is pretty problematic news. The Chinese Government gave an R0 value of 2.6-2.9 or something like that, and also has publicly said the mortality rate is similar to the 2006 SARS outbreak (which had a lower R0 of something like 1.9 or something (possibly lower) ultimately. Assuming these figures are more accurate, If the Chinese Government is either not finding or hiding the number of cases but not the number of deaths, it actually may be good news, as the mortality rate would be considerably lower. However if they are wrong about or lying about both figures and it is both more contagious and more deadly, this could be a pretty serious epidemic/pandemic. If they, for instance are underestimating or underreporting the mortality rate by about .5 deaths per 1000 (I believe that’s the metric I’ve seen), the mortality rate would be roughly that of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Now, we are far better at treating symptoms now and preventing person to person spread of disease as we were in 1918, as well as developing vaccines. We have a lot of developed treatments that could be effective in minimizing symptoms or fighting the disease as well, even short of a currently viable cure/particularly effective treatment.<br /> However, that R0 value, if anywhere close to on target is pretty alarming. Even if the actual value is halfway between China’s figures and this study’s figures, and even if it were merely as deadly as SARS was.

      Still, this isn’t an official figure yet. This isn’t even published, we don’t know how much other research will validate this number or contest it. So don’t panic based on a pre-print article. This probably has more value being available for other researchers, whom seeing other people’s figures, or methodology could benefit in their own research or methodology, and public heath officials who need to try to assess what a worst case scenario may look like. If these figures are accurate, they would be alarming. Even somebody who can read statistics and the language correctly in shouldn’t simply take something like this as fact, until it gets through peer review, other experts evaluate it once it’s published, and other figures start to align with their findings. I engaged in speculation, as it is really concerning should these figures be correct, and an interesting conversation to engage in. However, I am not credentialed in epidemiology, public health, or medicine. You should listen to experts and public health officials, over then speculation of somebody like myself. I am discussing the implications of this if true, not rendering an expert opinion.

    2. On 2020-02-29 22:14:11, user Meat house man wrote:

      Thank you for this in this dynamic situation..let me know which journal it gets published in.<br /> I agree with your conclusion re R0..

    1. On 2020-02-19 22:23:35, user hvoltbb wrote:

      There is a typo in the abstract "The updated basic reproductive number was found to be 2.12 on average with and a 95% credible interval of [2.04, 2.18]. ".<br /> It should be "and with". I was typing so fast on my laptop that words switched places. It will not get fixed in the second version, because the revision has already been uploaded.

    1. On 2020-03-05 21:03:21, user Arturo Tozzi cns wrote:

      CROSS-REACTIVITY BETWEEN COVID-19 AND CHILDHOOD VACCINES?

      One speculation for the lower SARS clinical severity in children is that cross-protective antibodies were elicited in children as a response to one of their childhood vaccines.<br /> A 2007 paper (on mice immunised with various vaccines) states that children's vaccines do not induce cross reactivity against SARS-CoV

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...

      However, the above-mentioned paper is affected by several bias.

      Therefore, would it be feasible to look for cross-correlations between the RNA and proteic sequences of the NCOV 2019 and the immunogenic epitopes of the vaccines administeded to chinese children? If a correlation does exist, it could be possible to vaccinate the whole sensitive population.

      Arturo Tozzi<br /> Center for Nonlinear Science, Department of Physics, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA<br /> tozziarturo@libero.it<br /> Arturo.Tozzi@unt.edu

      Gennaro D'Amato<br /> Division of Respiratory and Allergic Diseases, Department of Chest Diseases, High Specialty A. Cardarelli Hospital, Napoli, Italy<br /> Medical School of Specialization in Respiratory Diseases, University on Naples Federico II.<br /> gdamatomail@gmail.com

    1. On 2020-03-09 02:23:08, user Angel Paternina-Caicedo wrote:

      Great to see more data on the COVID-19 epidemic. The following comment does not deal with study methods. Despite the study appears methodologically sound, the Supplementary Material is not complete at this point, and this is needed for a full assessment.

      This comment focus on the broad interpretation on the results of this study. The results of this study does not support the conclusion that the disease has been contained in Wuhan.

      The study does not show evidence of no circulation in Wuhan after containment measures.

      According to the results of this study, these isolation and quarantine measures have been effective to curve down and delay the peak attack-rate. Despite this, so far, there is no evidence that the final peak attack-rate will be lower after these measures, meaning, the final tally of infected population may not differ with or without these containment measures. The epidemic is only a few months old, and COVID-19 is still circulating in Wuhan and elsewhere in the world.

      Also, the economic costs of shutting down the entire city are not quantified yet. And this experience is unlikely to be able to replicate in most of the world.

      The conclusion that COVID-19 is contained after these strong measures in Wuhan, based on results of this study, are misleading. Notwithstanding, the delay to achieve the peak attack rate may give some time for the development and testing of a vaccine.

    1. On 2020-03-12 20:49:50, user personfromreddit wrote:

      Thank you for the well-designed and informative experiments and paper. The implications are critically important to managing COVID-19 patients and preventing further outbreak. However, in seeking publication for this paper I strongly recommend that the authors bolster their discussion -- specifically on the topic of in vitro vs. in vivo aerosolization. I am not a virologist, but I understand that just because SARA-CoV-2 can be aerosilized in similar systems that you used in your paper, that it may not mean there is clinical aerosolization and viral spread. While you touch on this in the paper and state that it is "plausible" that aerosol may contribute to spread, I think there needs to be more nuance to this discussion as to how likely this may be. To my understanding there are notable cases where in vitro systems such as the one in this study have found steady viral aerosols, but clinical aerosolization was not significant enough to present a means of viral spread (i.e. ebola).

      I think discussing the topic of aerosolization in more detail are especially important for this paper during this time period -- one where many non-virologists and laypeople are reading high-brow virology literature. A more careful and detailed discussion of the implications of these findings will help prevent undue interpretations of these results.

    2. On 2020-03-13 18:45:34, user naturebroad wrote:

      What about Formica, laminates, butcher block, stone (soapstone, granite, marble, etc.), quartzite, solid surface kitchen countertops (acrylic resin, polyester resin or a combination of the two that is combined with filler,etc.),

    3. On 2020-03-14 16:18:13, user Donna Lovitt Wells wrote:

      In the dental profession aerosols are created pretty much every time a dental hygienist treats a patient or dentist uses a high speed drill. Would these professions be at high risk even if they use all appropriate PPE given that the aerosols stay in the air?