The Chain of Events (The Diagram)
The diagram flows from left to right, showing the "story" of how a risk happens. You should understand the relationship between these boxes:
Threat Source (The "Who" or "What"):
This is the adversary (e.g., a hacker, a dishonest employee) or a non-adversarial source (e.g., a power failure).
Key factors: They have capability (skill), intent (motivation), and targeting.
Threat Event (The "Action"):
The source initiates an event (e.g., sending a phishing email, launching malware).
Key factor: Likelihood of initiation (how likely are they to try?).
Vulnerability (The "Weakness"):
The threat event exploits a vulnerability (e.g., unpatched software, a weak password).
Predisposing Conditions: Things that make the weakness easier to exploit (e.g., the server is facing the public internet).
Security Controls: Things that block the attack (e.g., a firewall). These reduce the likelihood of success.
Adverse Impact (The "Consequence"):
If the vulnerability is exploited, it causes impact (e.g., data theft, system downtime).
Organizational Risk (The "Result"):
The combination of the likelihood of the attack succeeding and the severity of the impact produces the final risk level.