40 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
    1. In an efficient market

      Application: Investing in the Stock Market • Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market. • A hot tip is probably based on information that is already contained in the price of the stock. • Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected. • A “buy-and-hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor (savings of transaction costs) or buy shares into a mutual fund.

  2. Sep 2026
    1. !)"

      In words: The n-period interest rate, i.e., the interest rate of a bond that matures in n periods from now, equals the average of the one-period interest rates expected to occur over the n-period life of the bond.

    1. Note that the interest rate could in principle also decrease during a business cycle expansion if demand has increased to a stronger degree than supply.

      However, that is not what we typically observe as evidenced in the following slide. The typical increase in interest rates during business cycle expansions is not that surprising when thinking in terms of the Fisher effect: growing product and labour demand in a business cycle expansion tend to increase expected inflation and nominal interest rates.

    2. > = real interest rate

      Note: The previous slide defined the ex ante real interest rate. Often, also ex post real interest rates are discussed. The ex ante real interest rates are predictions based on the expected inflation rate and thus give an indication of what the real cost (benefit) of borrowing (lending) is expected to be over – for instance – the next year. The ex post real interest rates use the past inflation rate to calculate what the real cost (benefit) of borrowing (lending) has been over – for instance – the past year.