Brewster
You provide here only a summary of your reference paper without comparing it to your findings
Brewster
You provide here only a summary of your reference paper without comparing it to your findings
Less studies about the hydrological characteristics and projections for the Brewster basin can be found than for the Zugspitze basin.
But you also said above you could not found any study regarding the hydrological characteristics, only glacier projections. I am wondering what is less than nothing
demonstrates a highly climate-sensitive hydrological and mass balance response due to its maritime setting and high annual precipitation.
Have you concluded this from your analysis, or from another reference. Be more precise about your sources
debris-free
why is this important, OGGM also does not include debri cover explicitly
higher temperature scenarios
be more specific here (2.7°C and 4°C, or only 4°C)
Glacier area and volume respond differently to climate change
nice paragraph, but not needed here
Anderson et al., 2023; Bolibar et al., 2022
again two references for one number
Shannon et al., 2019; Radic et al., 2013
Does both studies give the same numbers? I doubt it. You should be more precise which study says what.
Further i could not find your numbers in any of the two studies, this hints at that you made this analysis with something like ChatGPT, without checking the facts.
Both basins have quite different runoff characteristics
according to your analysis, they are similar that the peak shifts earlier in the 'melting-season' for higher temperature scenarios
one plot
you created one plot per temperature scenario, but for easier comparison you should have plotted all in one plot.
# 4. Annual runoff at 2020, 2060, 2099
Actually i meant that you plot something like the second plot in this chapter: https://edu-notebooks.oggm.org/oggm-edu/glacier_water_resources_projections.html#monthly-runoff
However, after rereading my instructions, I understand why you plotted something else, and this will not be seen as a mistake
km³
wrong unit, also in labels below
Convert units to km³ (annual) and Mt (monthly)
they should all have the same units kg or Mt, but not km³
decline in volume
zugspitze volume looks almost the same for 2.7 and 4°C
plot_glac
this is not a mistake: but try to use colors to make it easier to understand the data (e.g. the coldest scenario blue and the hottest scenario red).
with both the mean and median well within the ±0.2°C tolerance range
this is expected as we only select realizations within this range. The interesting question is, if our selection is close to our target (e.g. the 2.7°C selection deviates 0.01°C in the mean and 0.02°C in the median)
Zhang et al. (2012), "A modified monthly degree-day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development," Journal of Glaciology.
You cite here only the model development part of the work (Part I: model development). Their is also "Part II: application", however it is only concentrating on two basins, and neither of them is Yarla Shampo. Further this paper only deals with the past and do not make projections into the future.
As your reference is wrong, and also the text written below does not align with your reference, I suspect you used something like ChatGPT for the analysis, without checking if the facts are true.
Drenkhan et al. (2018), "The changing water cycle: The eco-hydrological consequences of shrinking glaciers in the Andes," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
I can not find this study with your citation. Maybe you have not correctly cited it, or it is a made up study from ChatGPT. As I also could not find any Article with Drenkhan as an Author in 'Hydrology and Earth System Sciences', also I can not find the title of the paper using a search engin.
Without a correct reference, I can not give any points, as I can not check if you made a correct comparision
Findings from Analysis
very hard to follow, and most statements are not true when only looking at your plots
Larger runoff volumes (~5–10x Yarla Shampo)
In this analysis you should only concentrate on each basin separately, and not comparing your specific basins (this was a previous task)
April–November
what about the rest of the year? For this glacier the main runoff season is going from Sep - April, which is the more interesting period to concentrate your analysis on
peak water
This is not visible in your plots. I think you have misunderstood the concept of peak water, as explained here: https://edu-notebooks.oggm.org/oggm-edu/glacier_water_resources.html#setting-the-scene-glacier-runoff-and-peak-water
robust
what does robust mean here
The 1.5°C scenario’s stable
Actually from your plots, 1.5°C shows a decline in total annual runoff until around 2060 and stabilizes afterwards. The other scenarios have a larger total annual runoff in 2100
The provided
Our
sharp 2100 decline
you mention this multiple times, but it is not visible to me.
2060 peak
I can not see any peak around 2060 for any scenario in your plots.
provided
Do you mean your analysis here?
Comparison with Literature
providing your comparison only as bullet points is not enough, you should use full/connected sentences.
higher warming
this is true for all scenarios
Findings from Analysis
Have you mixed the labels of your plot in this analysis? It looks like what you are describing under 1.5°C is shown for 4°C in the plot
sharply decline by 2100
what do you mean by that?
Similar
similar to what
indicating peak water ~2060 and severe glacier depletion.
you are mixing here seasonal (monthly) analysis, with annual runoff peak water. I do not understand how you can conclude from the first part or your sentence to this part.
shift
I can not see this shift
increase
the monthly runoff peak 'decreases until 2060'
2.7°C Scenario: Both basins show slight 2060 increase, reduced by 2100, suggesting peak water ~2060, less severe than 4°C. 1.5°C Scenario:
I do not see strong differences between warming levels, regarding peak water (see also my comments above)
Higher, prolonged 2060 runoff, reduced by 2100, peak water ~2060.
for salcca also hard to see any peak water, but it looks like it is around 2020-2030 or was already passed earlier
2060 runoff higher than 2020, sharply lower by 2100, indicating peak water ~2060.
I can not see any evidence for peak water for yarla
Peak runoff shifts earlier under higher warming.
I can not see this for your basins
Higher warming (4°C) increases runoff by 2060, then sharply declines by 2100 due to depletion.
Where do you see this? Refer to your own plots as well
Nearly identical runoff magnitude and seasonality, wide uncertainty bands, indicating high glacier stability.
and what about the reduction of runoff from October to December in 2060 and 2100 compared to 2020?
robust
what does robust mean in this context?
Broad peak in June–August.
this is not true, as it is located on the southern hemisphere the peak happens somewhere between October to March.
Yarla Shampo Basin
this is not enough, to just give bullet points about the evolution of curves. You should also write your findings down in full sentences (e.g. the seasonal peak runoff for 4°C is reached in ..., where as this peak is shifted for 1.5°C to ... .
2060 Median
wrong label
median_2100
as this is always zero, no need to show it
c = ['b','r','y']
not a mistake, but it is a convention to use blue for cooler temperatures and red for warmer temperatures
glaciers[i].sum(dim='rgi_id')[r].to_array(dim="variable").sum(dim="variable")
the runoff is already available in the dataset and you do not need to recalculate it
compared to slower area reduction
I do not see this. How do you come to this conclusion?
Volume loss is more dramatic,
more dramatic compared to what?
Persistent Area
is this different from volume? I think you see the same in both variables
volume
median volume salcca almost identical for 2.7 and 4, this is not mentioned
Most severe retreat, with near-total loss of volume and area by 2100
make clear if you talk here about one or both basins
[km$^3$]
the shown data is in m²
Data Variables
units are not discussed
[km$^3$]
the shown data is in m³
glacierized area fraction
is missing in the title
Ya
Providing numbers without references is not enough
Quelccaya’s retreat
Reference?
19 Gt yr⁻¹
Reference?
Climate
Reference?
Climate:
Reference?
Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) regions
this are not the regions but individual glaciers
closely aligning with their respective targets, especially for 4°C and 2.7°C. The slight positive deviation for the 1.5°C target is minor but notable
Here it would be good to also add some numbers you have found (e.g. for 4°C the selection has an mean temperature of 4.06°C and a median tempreture of …)
ds_all[basin_ids[1]]['1.5°C']
if you want to look at the data of the two basins individually, you should execute this line in another cell
would be surprising if this made such a substantial difference
good conclusion
15%/dec
also include the calculations of such values into your notebook, this helps following along
we did not account for these water mass losses in our runoff estimates, which thus might overestimate the true values
very good conclusion
assimilate the results
what do you mean with this?
OGGM module for debris cover modelling to improve results
very good conclusion
Verhaegen et al.
year is missing
the
delete
largest number of realizations,
Nice analysis. One thing you could have look at is the spread in precipitation of the different realizations, as we only looked at temperature for grouping.
Annual runoff at three time steps (e.g. 2020, 2060, 2100), showing median and interquartile range, one plot per temperature scenario
Their I wanted you to plot the monthly runoff evolution as done in the second plot of this section: https://edu-notebooks.oggm.org/oggm-edu/glacier_water_resources_projections.html#monthly-runoff
However, after reading my instructions and seeing your plot, I completely understand why you created this plot. I will try to be more clear the next time.
2000,2100
nice to show also the historical runoff from 2000 to 2020, however it would be good to use a different color for this period (e.g. black), to visually distinguish between historical and future data.
the volume decreases faster and further than the area
where and how can you see this?
1%
given absolute numbers for temperature deviations is easier to understand, as a 1% deviation of 2.7°C is a different absolute number than 1% deviation of 4°C. (and how do you express a deviation from 0°C in %?)
Thus we do not need to further reduce the number of realizations for any of the target temperatures by reducing the ranges.
This is not true generally. If for example all realizations are below the target temperature, you will also not get closer by reducing the ranges. If you want to use such statements you also should analyze the distribution of the available realizations.
5%
see comment above
even though we have the largest number of realizations (14
why do you expect to be closer with more realizations?
2%
see comment above
hydrology
OGGM is not a hydrology model, but only a glacier model
in the 2020s.
? be more precise about which period you are talking about
with different timing and magnitude for the 3 scenarios analysed. After that, scenarios converge again until 2050, when warmer scenarios show a larger decline in annual runoff. The runoff peaks also shift about 1-2 months earlier, more for the warmer scenarios
for what is this sentence here?
we expect
use different wording, e.g. our analysis shows
the missing regional forcing calibrated by local measurements
I do not understand this sentence, what is different between your model and the one from the paper?
rather than downscaled local meteorology which could influence glacier sensitivity in complex alpine terrain
What do you want to say here?
idealized mass redistribution schemes
Do the other studies use more sophisticated methods?
reinforce the robustness
Which robustness? How is robustness defined?
Rofental Basin
you should try to bring all studies together, and do not first compare study 1 with our findings, followed by study 2. Instead you should first concentrate on one aspect (e.g. we found that peak runoff ..., study 1 and study 2 found the same, but...)
previous studies
be more concrete about which studies you are talking about
August runoffs will decrease further, and also July runoffs will start to decrease for the 2.7°C and 4°C scenarios As a result of this shift, June (and for 4°C warming also May) runoff show an increase towards the end of the century
You should bring this closer together in the text. You just mention above in bullet points what the study says and here you mention what you found. A sentence connecting the two would be nice (e.g. Rets et al. (2020) found ..., which is the same as we found ...)
now propagate the results further into the future
What do you want to say with this?
Context and literature
general comparisons good, but bullet points alone are not a good structure for a discussion section. You should use full sentences and be a bit more specific what you are talking about
analysis
which analysis?
differences may stem
which differences, be more concrete
extend this trend
extend which trend?
glacier shrinkage
area or volume?
peak water
this refers to peak water of total annual runoff: https://edu-notebooks.oggm.org/oggm-edu/glacier_water_resources.html#setting-the-scene-glacier-runoff-and-peak-water
You analyzed the the timing of the maximum monthly runoff, which is also very interesting. In addition a short analysis of the total annual runoff peak water would be nice.
sns.color_palette("rocket")[i]
not a mistake: but if the data is grouped for different temperatures it is often a convention to use blue for colder temperatures and red for warmer temperatures, to make it easier to understand the plots
ax[i]
your forget to change the xlabel (similar as you have done it in the next plot)
df_runoff = ds_all[basin_id][temp_scenario][runoff_vars].sum(dim='rgi_id').median(dim='gcm_scena
runoff is already provided in the dataset, you do not need to recompute
this suggests that glacier thinning occurs before complete area loss
I can not follow what you want to say here
glacier volume declines more rapidly than glacier area, especially under higher temperature scenarios
where and how do you see this?
reacting more sensitively to warming
again where do you see this?
the rate of decline
have you calculated the rate of decline somewhere to be able to make such a statement?
Rofental basin has a larger glacierized area, meaning it retains ice longer
where and how do you see this?
experiences a more gradual decline in glacier volume and area
where do you see this? For me the evolution of both basins looks very similar
higher temperature scenarios (e.g. 4°C) lead to faster glacier volume and area loss compared to lower temperature scenarios (e.g. 1.5°C)
but 2.7 and 4 are almost indistinguishable, this is not discussed
km²
the data you are showing is in m²
km³
the data you are showing is in m³
slightly
again "slightly" is not quantitative
most models, which might offer better statistical reliability while the 4°C scenario is supported by the fewest.
also provide the exact numbers in your discussion. "most" and "fewest" is not quantitative
Our results shows similarities
Go more into the details of this similarities
whe
?
28C
2.8°C
The article employed
This should be explained before you start comparing your findings with the findings of the study
precipitation shows an increasing trend
it reads as you have analyzed the precipitation trend of our used climate data. If so, show a plot, if not be clear about what you have done and what not.
very similar
similar to what, are they using the same temperature scenarios as we do? I do not think so, therefor you need to be precise what are you comparing here
Contextualize
Good comparisons, however your analysis should be able to be understood without reading the papers (e.g. if you use special terms from the papers, define them or use your own words instead of those terms)
runoff coefficient
if you use such terms you need to define them
Strasser, U.,
You are not using this citation in your comparison below, you only mention that it exists but do not compare it. either you should not mention this citation here, or you should include it in your analysis
reflecting earlier snowmelt and glacier melt as a consequence of rising temperatures
also reflecting that at some point no glaciers are left which can melt later in the season
we did not explicitly analyze seasonal variations in runoff
this is not true, you plotted the monthly runoff for different years
glacial/glacio-nival to nivo-glacial
If you use such terms you also should explain what they mean
80–96 %.
here you copied a sentence of the original manuscript, but forgot something and it does not make sense
then stay
after what
Strasser et al.
you should also provide the year in citations
Hanzer et al.
see comment above
robust
what does robust mean, reads like a ChatGPT sentence
runoff.
Another interesting finding would be that the seasonal peak is shifting to earlier months in Rofental, whereas their is no change of the seasonal runoff peak for Langtang visible.
runoff = sum(ds[comp] for comp in runoff_vars) * 1e-9 # Gt
runoff is already provided in the dataset, you do not need to recompute
############ Plot 3) ############
colorbar label is missing
Your answers here:
Missing
km²
the data you are showing is in m²
km³
the data you are showing in in m³
Units
this are not the units used in the dataset
time, rgi_id, gcm_scenario
what is the meaning and range of this dimensions?
Task: F
the calculations you did are correct, but you should also summaries your findings in one to two sentences
km$^3$
the shown data is in m³
[km$^3$]
the shown data is in m²
glacierized area fraction
is missing in the title
Hidden Valley (
This is copied from another group, and discuss the wrong things, as your basins are located in different locations on the globe
3
this is only valid for one basin, the second basin probably has a different number of glaciers
ds_all[basin_ids[1]]['1.5°C']
to see both basins you need to execute this comment in another cell
glacier regions
glaciers
identifying specific Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) regions
this are not RGI regions, but individual glaciers
4°C and 2.7°C. The slight positive deviation for the 1.5°C target is minor but notable
Here it would be good to also add some numbers you have found (e.g. for 4°C the selection has an mean temperature of 4.06°C and a median tempreture of ...)
However, other factors also influence temperature changes, such as variations in solar energy during cycles like the Sun’s 11-year cycle, volcanic eruptions that release particles to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight, and land use changes like deforestation, which alter how much heat the Earth absorbs or reflects.
references?
These factors combine with CO to shape global temperature trends.
Do you want to say these are the only imortant processes? This is not true.
~280 ppm
Correct, but where is the reference for this?
1.10 ppm/year Annual increase in CO2 concentration (2016-2021): 1.94 ppm/year
wrong results, because of dividing through 6 instead of 5
len(co2_1980_1985)
you should divide here through 5 and not 6
The annual cycle is related to seaonal cycle of vegetation abosrbing CO2 when the pertinent hemisphere is in summer through photosynthe
Correct, but could you provide a reference for this?
plot the annual average timeseries of global CO22_2 concentration and of global 2m temperature from ERA5 on the same plot (using a secondary y axis for temperature).
you forgot the latitudinal weighting for tempertature. see https://pat-schmitt.github.io/climate_practicals_bsc/week_02/01_Lesson_NetCDF_Data.html#arithmetics-and-averages-on-a-sphere
plot the annual average timeseries of global CO22_2 concentration as a function of time.
this plot is missing
plot the monthly global CO22_2 concentration as a function of time.
no y-label and title in plot
Question: D
Correct.
Question: What was the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial era? Compute the annual increase in CO2 concentration (unit: ppm per year) between 1980 and 1985 and between 2016 and 2021.
You have not answered this
Question: Describe and explain the annual cycle of CO2 concentrations:
Correct
Useful links and sources:
References should always be included in the analysis, at the places where they fit.
Describe the relationship between global temperatures and CO22_2 concentrations. Beside CO22_2, name three processes that can influence temperature variability and change at the global scale.
Correct, but could you find some references for the other processes you are mentioning?
# Calculations to answer Question 2 of Exercise 4:
Ok here is your calculation ;)
etween 1980 and 1985 the average CO2-Concentration increased by around 6.6 ppm as computed below. This means an annual increase of around 1.33 ppm per year. In the time between 2016 and 2021 the concentration increased by about 11.6 ppm which corresponds to an annual increase of around 2.32 ppm every year. It is important to keep in mind, that this is only a simple average over the years. It may be, that the increase was stronger in one year than in another, but the almost linear graph from the plot suggests, that our method is appropriate.
Where is the calculation of these values. This should also be included in the notebook.
n the preindustrial area (1750), before the industrial revolution changed the life of humans on the planet, a CO2-Concentration of 278ppm is estimated, according to ice-core measurments.
Correct, but please provide a reference
Describe and explain the annual cycle of CO22_2 concentrations:
Correct, could you find a reference for this?
El Niño leads to global warming (due to heat release from the Pacific Ocean). La Niña causes global cooling.
Important to give references for such statements
Describe the relationship between global temperatures and CO22_2 concentrations. Beside CO22_2, name three processes that can influence temperature variability and change at the global scale.
Correct, could you find references
The annual increase is given by:
numbers are slightly of the exact values, maybe due to a typo (see comment below)
280 ppm
correct, but could you provide a reference
Describe and explain the annual cycle of CO22_2 concentrations.
Correct, could you find any references for this?
Describe the relationship between global temperatures and CO22_2 concentrations. Beside CO22_2, name three processes that can influence temperature variability and change at the global scale.
Correct, could you find references for the three other processe?
Compute the annual increase in CO22_2 concentration (unit: ppm per year) between 1980 and 1985 and between 2016 and 2021.
Correct
What was the CO22_2 concentration in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial era
This is not answered, pre-industrial era means around 1900
1. Describe and explain the annual cycle of CO22_2 concentrations
Correct, but could you find a reference for this?
#2: global 2m temperature
you forgot the latitudinal weighting of temperature (see practicals https://pat-schmitt.github.io/climate_practicals_bsc/week_02/01_Lesson_NetCDF_Data.html#arithmetics-and-averages-on-a-sphere)
Descri
Correct
he pre-
Correct
In this p
Correct, but could you find a reference?
CO2 Concentration
unit is missing
Co2 concentration
unit is missing
Co2 concentration
unit is missing
https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/climate-science/aerosols-small-particles-with-big-climate-effects/
this link should be removed here
In the case of Mount Pinatubo’s erruption this effact caused a cooling of nearly 1°C in the folowwing years.
reference?
An increase in CO₂ concentration of 10 ppm is approximately associated with a 0.1 °C rise in global temperature.
reference?
In the "annual average time series of global CO₂ concentration and global 2m temperature" plot, we can clearly see that the global temperature increase is directly proportional to the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.
Correct, but you can not see this in the plot shown above
What was the CO22_2 concentration in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial era? Compute the annual increase in CO22_2 concentration (unit: ppm per year) between 1980 and 1985 and between 2016 and 2021.
Correct
Describe and explain the annual cycle of CO22_2 concentrations
Correct, could you find a reference for this?
plot the annual average timeseries of global CO22_2 concentration and of global 2m temperature from ERA5 on the same plot (using a secondary y axis for temperature).
the temperature in the plot does not use the same timestamp as the co2 concentration, therefore you can not see their relation
plot the monthly global CO22_2 concentration as a function of time.
You should have plotted on the x-axis the date and on the y-axis the co2 concentration. You plotted the mean monthly concentration.
Question 3:
Correct
Question 2:
Correct
Question 1:
Correct
230 ppm
Reference?
he anual cycle is caused by the seasons which influence the plants photogenysis. As Mauna loa is on the northern hemisphere it has high concentrations in the start of spring before photogenysis picks up again
Correct, could you find a reference for this?
As CO2
Correct
The annual change from 1980 to 1985 has been 1.325 ppm per year and from 2016-2021 it has been 2.327 ppm per year.
Correct calculation
Reference
References should be provided within your analysis (e.g. compare your findings to findings from others)
1. Climate and
You should also shortly discuss what you can see in the plots, and not only showing the plots