that was fast!

Perhaps one in edu.

tutor not computer

I only read this after our email exchange but it sums up the perspective I arrived at quickly after reading your Andreesen takedown and then some of the Wired work.

I quickly arrived at a POV that you were an unserious, emotional critic chasing someone in the arena rather than a thoughtful student of the topic.

Digging deeper, I see more exists there, I'm glad I spent the time reading your work. Most wouldn't I suspect. I think it comes down to your messaging. Are you interested in the future and the role of future prediction as an input to progress? Or, are you interested in quickly written takedowns of those who are?

The latter is good for building an audience who agree with you but selling books works better when both sides want to engage .

Seems hard to believe that this outcome was due to the messenger vs the actor.

it has also create jobs.

Impacted fields...... Ok.

Well said. Though these roles clearly need more transparency.

What was he when we was 20? Would his opinions be more relevant if he were still that?

The vast majority of a16z money (perhaps all?) comes from accredited investors.

The SBF Crypto debacle would stand to be the best example of consumers losing money. But,

If you put it all in Crypto and expected FDIC level protection that's a buyer problem and the market itself regulated that behaviour intensely.

This is a solid and well landed critique which A16 must own short term if they want to claim victory someday way down the line.

If there were no market, what then would regulate seems to be the point here.

The governments of the world. Is that a better option, clearly the view of his piece is no.

I'd suggest this is an article about inequality rather than a critique of the role of optimism in technological progress.

So the impacts of quantitative easing over a span of decades and a pandemic with ZIRP is the fault of the the founders of Etsy, Ebay, and AirBnB? At least AirBnB can credibly claim to have some role in housing prices but they didn't do this at the macro.

Your assessing the claimed improvement in society by the measure of a tiny group of bank accounts? This is an analytical shortcut of the highest form.

I'd agree that this is an exceptionally bold statement to make, likely drawn from the Peter Diamandis school of abundance.

However, there are plenty of examples where something previously rare, esoteric and unavailable has been made ubiquitous at much lower cost and resource demands than prior iterations. Knowledge being the best example which I assume you credit to the Internet rather than the subjects of your article but you have to give a nod to Netscape and them MS for breaking open what was mostly only available to the elite of the university system prior with the browser.

You are disappointed that in 20 years a small group of billionaires have not fully solved the pollution issues of 6 billion people?

I cannot understand how the optimism of ambition * To build and fly a plane. * To make this dialog possible * To cure disease * To make knowledge more available for everyone * To .....as not helped matters much.

Sure, everything has problems, we are trading old problems for new ones as he points out.

I guess you can argue that we didn't need digital cameras and social networking or electric cars etc. but that's a dead end position.

This is a regular topic on the news, in Congress etc.

I'd agree that there was great optimism. More than you would have for a the coal industry or insurance.

We we wrong? Did you predict the tools you are using right now in 1993 while listening to Blind Melon?

I'm not sure the legal departments of these groups would agree we've stopped.

Look at Adobe and Figma trying to close their deal.

Look at Twitter with government essentially inside their organization.

I'd agree that there is shared responsibility here. Does the public Mood Andreesen references represent the majority. I don't think it does.

Opinion: Specifically you can make this argument but broadly, I 'd suggest that it has actually aged pretty well. "WIRED is about the most powerful people on the planet today—the Digital Generation. These are the people who not only foresaw how the merger of computers, telecommunications, and the media is transforming life at the cusp of the new millennium, they are making it happen.”)"

He has offered this opportunity on X/Twitter.

https://x.com/pmarca/status/1714714163388576217?s=20

I believe this is a reference to Thiel and Gawker. Are there others I should know?

Which beyond Meta is he on the BOD? AFAIK there are less than 10 such companies.

I don't think this POV has aged poorly.

From HypothesisAI

The idea of the Precautionary Principle has its origins in the field of environmental ethics and policy. It emerged in the late 20th century as a response to the perceived risks associated with technological advancements, particularly in the context of environmental harm and public health. The Precautionary Principle suggests that if an action or technology has the potential to cause harm, precautionary measures should be taken, even in the absence of scientific certainty, to prevent that harm from occurring. It prioritizes the avoidance of potential risks over the pursuit of potential benefits.

Summary from Hypothesis AI Thomas Sowell's Unconstrained Vision represents a perspective that emphasizes the limitations of human knowledge and the need for decentralized decision-making. It suggests that individuals and communities are best equipped to make their own choices rather than relying on centralized authority.

Alexander Kojeve's Universal and Homogeneous State refers to the concept of a society in which all differences and diversity have been eliminated, resulting in a homogeneous and uniform state. This idea envisions a society where everyone shares the same values, beliefs, and interests.

Thomas More's Utopia, originally described in his book of the same name, presents an idealized society that is free from poverty, inequality, and other social problems. It depicts a vision of a perfect, harmonious world where everyone lives in peace and prosperity. All three ideas mentioned in the text are juxtaposed with techno-optimism, which embraces the belief that technology can bring progress, solve societal challenges, and improve human life.

Some examples from HypothesisAI. One example of machines removing choice from our lives is automated systems replacing human decision-making in certain industries. For instance, self-checkout machines in grocery stores eliminate the choice of interacting with a cashier. This can be seen as a loss of human interaction and personal connection. However, the text argues that the benefits of technology outweigh this negative aspect. One example of the freedom to create our lives that flows from the material abundance created by machines is the ability to pursue creative endeavors. With the convenience provided by technology, individuals can access tools, resources, and platforms to express their artistic talents or entrepreneurial ideas. This empowers people to shape their own paths and pursue their passions with greater ease. Another example is the automation of repetitive tasks in the workplace. Machines and software can efficiently handle mundane and repetitive tasks, freeing up human workers to focus on more complex and innovative work. This allows individuals to spend their time and energy on activities that require creativity, problem-solving, and critical thinking, ultimately enhancing their job satisfaction and personal growth. In summary, although technology may remove certain choices from our lives, it also enables us to unlock new possibilities, achieve material abundance, engage in creative pursuits, and focus on higher-value activities.

This might not hold up to argument as strongly as you would hope. One effect of social media is the awareness of things you would have never imagined desiring 50 years ago.

deflationary force = greater buying power

In this context, "QED" stands for "quod erat demonstrandum," which is a Latin phrase that translates to "which was to be demonstrated." It is often used at the end of a mathematical or logical proof to indicate that the statement or argument has been successfully demonstrated or proven. In the given text, it suggests that the previous statement about technological innovation being philanthropic and beneficial to billions of people has been substantiated or proven true.

@WOHanley- I think you are fair to register some critique here in terms of how some of the largest technology platforms have avoided accountability either through too much power or regulatory capture/closeness with the government.

Such a great example of where Hypothesis AI Beta is an amazing tool. Summarize this.... results in.

The text titled "Hayek's Knowledge Problem" is from the document "The Techno-Optimist Manifesto" by Andreessen Horowitz, available at "https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/". The text discusses the concept of Hayek's Knowledge Problem. In summary, the text addresses the economic insights of Friedrich Hayek, a renowned economist. Hayek's Knowledge Problem refers to the difficulty of a central authority in acquiring and processing all the necessary information to efficiently allocate resources in a complex economy. The text explains that technological advancements can help overcome Hayek's Knowledge Problem by enabling greater decentralization and empowering individuals. Through technologies such as the internet, artificial intelligence, and decentralized systems, more people can access and share information, leading to better decision-making and resource allocation. The author further argues that these technologies can enhance market efficiency, innovation, and economic growth. They can also address societal challenges by enabling greater inclusivity and allowing individuals to participate in the economy regardless of traditional barriers. Overall, the text presents a techno-optimistic perspective, suggesting that embracing and leveraging technology can help overcome Hayek's Knowledge Problem and lead to positive societal and economic outcomes.

I think this is one place where @wohanleys call of "fascist" just doesn't stand up. Marc Andreesen just can't force progress because he demands it. But, he and others can foster it and if they find a willing populace, they can thrive. Look at the number of AAA maps people have mailed to their home today before they travel? Look at at all the yellow pages being delivered to you home, encyclopedias, etc. Everyone everywhere has access to these materials at no personal cost.

and enironmental

This is a ridiculous statement for an almost $1b outcome in a market where all valuations have been massively reset.

@yoyo_thomas , co-founder and CEO of #LOOM tried to put a positive spin on the acquisition,"

Celebrate Joe and team! This next stage is going to be good. 🎉

I love this move for both @loom & @Atlassian . I cannot imagine working without Loom, especially if everyone doesn't work in the same tiny room. I can imagine the ways this GTM partnership will thrive. https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/12/atlassian-to-acquire-former-unicorn-loom-for-975m/#:~:text=Joe%20Thomas%2C%20co%2Dfounder%20and%20CEO%20of%20Loom%20tried%20to%20put%20a%20positive%20spin%20on%20the%20acquisition%2C

@rob this is crap

mm,

ghjhg

fcgvhbj

what it looks like today

jjkj

cfgvh

Native Hypothesi.is experience today? But, why cant it look like the next screenshot?

@matt odhfodhfladfhlajdfhfjldah

@ian this is crazy, check it out.

Will there be signage directing the public away from the residential areas near silver Creek and away from silver creek Campground?

What is maximum width?

where has work been proposed to "improve" eroding banks?

I previously lived at bridge one for 8 years and the only bicycle conflicts we saw were from mountain bike riders coming down from Mt. Watson/Westerns states across our lawn, driveway and bridge..

Where can I see this plan?

What is a GPS?

Basically a riff on Team Patterns

"Collaboration by sheer force of will" is a hard way to collaborate.

This is where the ecosystem/monitoring and automation tools of DevOps play in IT. These sensors will be everywhere in everything in the future, especially as IOT comes online.

The reads like a devops article here,

DevOps

Interesting to note. Related to Atlassian's decision to build CI/CD via Pipelines inside of the Bitbucket repository.

Interesting to consider this impact when it comes to large organizations and team, especially in professional settings.

Interesting to note the way in which this may inadvertently exclude the professional developer private repo community.

Hypothesis- The professional dev community has a higher adoption rate then open source projects.

"Before CI, it took SuperChoice entire day to perform a single build and deploy. Today, the same build takes just 15 minutes. Without CI, we would need three to four times the staff we have now just to support half as many builds" Atlassian Customer SuperChoice.

Additional Examples: NASA is a powering a continuous deployment pipeline that delivers software updates to JPL’s private cloud as fast as the Ensemble engineers can crank them out. Code from six active branches is built using custom scripts that sit on top of Eclipse and SVN, and invoked by Atlassian Bamboo. Each successful build is then deployed to, and rigorously tested on, two preliminary environments before going into operation.

Ensemble’s engineers have what may be the best bragging rights in the world (or universe): The code they write on Monday is driving rovers on Mars come Tuesday.

How does the NFL explain the endless leaks by NFL insiders? How is it that all NFL news is leaked before it goes live? Who is the deflator? err leaker.

In an adversarial investigation complete with massive and recurring leaks of innacurate inside information from NFL sources should Brady comply?

At what point in an adversarial investigation is it appropriate to stop repeated investigations?

If ball management was a sacrosanct element of the competitive balance, the league would not allow this to happen.

a 16 PSI ball is a violation of league rules as well. Where is the investigation and punishment of a team or official who moved the QB's preference to the opposite end of the spectrum?

Brady needed no knowledge of this activity. Safe to assume he told them that he likes 12.5 and that he is upset when they are inflated higher e.g. 16 psi.

Again, this is another negative inference that can easily be considered normal behavior in this situation.

Exponent has been challenged as a pseudoscience firm that find the results that clients pay for them to find.

In fact, Exponent once argued for Big Tobacco that secondhand smoke does not lead to cancer, which we now know is false.

“Stanton Glantz, [is] a cardiologist at UC San Francisco who runs a database on the tobacco industry that contains thousands of pages of Exponent research arguing, among other things, that secondhand smoke does not cause cancer.”

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/05/06/deflategate-nfl-hired-same-research-firm-that-denied-secondhand-smoke-causes-cancer/

Using which needle? Why did the NFL not rely on his best recollection about which needle was used and how does that impact the application of the ideal gas law? http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/10/pressure-gauge-discrepancies-undermine-wells-report/

There is uncertainty about which needles were used as there were two different needles with different measures.

On the contrary, an NFL representative was found to have removed kicking balls in a non-approved manner. See Scott Miller/NFL Auctions. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/19/patriots-alerted-nfl-to-issue-with-special-teams-ball/

However, a crew of NFL officials could not complete testing of the balls at halftime due to time constraints while the Blue Shark dances slightly off beat?

How does the deviation between both needles impact results here?

Seemingly normal whether guilty or innocent.

there was a .30-.45 variation between needles.

If the balls were inflated to 12.5 on one needle that same ball could register as 12.05 on the other. After being moved outside the ideal gas law mathematics can then be applied but only after accounting for this discrepancy.

It is plausible that they were testing pressure on the sidelines and added air given that they were ready on the sidelines with needles testing the patriots ball.

How about when introducing a needle that registers .3-.45 below accurate. Start the ideal gas law tests at 12.05.

If there have been instances of balls being inflated by referees to 16, it is plausible that Brady would instruct the guy who gives the balls to the officials to make sure they stay at 12.5.

This is another inference to the negative. If you are implicated in something with someone who works with/for you is it a natural reaction to stop communicating? Is it more natural to speak with that person? How does behavior change when the entire global media is involved?

Surely the investigation went deeper into this "rubbing" Perhaps the balls were placed in a drier and battered with a belt sander. Was this confirmed?

If the ball boy can test 12 balls in 140 seconds while use the the "Urinal" how can it take an entire dancing shark/Katie Perry halftime show to test some of the balls?

Which NFL official? What was the chain of custody here? How much air did the Colts release while testing. Is it common practice for another team to retain possession of another team's ball?

Why test only four and use only one needle? Time?

This has proven to be inaccurate. The Colts informed the NFL prior to the game. http://www.businessinsider.com/new-england-patriots-deflategate-balls-indianapolis-colts-2015-5

Further, the Colts players have denied they raised concerns. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12213533/dqwell-jackson-indianapolis-colts-says-one-noticed-ball-was-inflated

Who then raised the issue during the first half of the game?

Also, Goodell has claimed he was "personally" unaware of the Colts complaint before the game.