The tendency to believe that pleasant events are morelikely than unpleasant ones is a manifestation of wishful thinking, theidea that if we want something to happen it will
This is like very optimistic point of view. The people that believing this principle say that ' If I want something too much, it becomes real! '
To clarify the representativeness heuristic, which is the belief thatany member of a category should “look like” or have the traits associ-ated with its category
Heuristics are shortcut decisions or solutions. They help us to make quick decisions but they can create irrational decisions, too.
Do you think that groups make better decisions than individuals do whenthey are working alone? In other words, are two (or more) heads betterthan one?
In some cases, deciding to something in a group is more advantageous than deciding in alone. Because in a group, there are different opinions and views about a specific topic. On the other hand while making a decision alone, we only use one type of view. We sometimes could not look at different perspective. However, There are some decisions that we can only find by thinking for ourselves and listening to our inner voice.
sometimes, good decisionswill have undesirable outcomes and sometimes poor decisions will havegood outcomes.
That's true. Some things in life don't turn out the way we expect them to. Therefore, while making a decision, it is important to accept that the result is good or bad, to take that road and to be able to say that whatever the result is, it is a part of my journey.
Best for whom? Best by what criteria? Best in the im-mediate future or long-term?
Actually the writer touched on an important point. I ask these questions to myself while making decision. The ''best'' alters person to person. One thing may be useful and the best option for some people, and the opposite for another.
Every time you find yourselfavoiding a decision, remember that, in most cases, avoiding a decision is,in fact, making one without any of the benefits of a carefully thought outconsideration of the problem
I don't think that avoiding a decision is a beneficial choice for our lifes since we generally should make a decision or choose one part when we are in seesaw. Making decision is a very important maybe sometimes vital process. When we turned back during time and saw what we chose, we understand the decision that we made was a good or bad for us.
ometimes weare thinking of a friend, perhaps getting ready to call him when the phonerings, and it is he. Not exactly a miracle, but rare enough to make us think,“Now what is the probability of that happening?” But, even seeming mir-acles can be explained with probabilities.
Yes, most of the people call ''miracle'' when an unexpected thing has happened. I believe that the miracles are been constituted by us. If we want something with all our heart and do something to achieve it, the universe will help us:)
This means that I can make good “long run” predic-tions and poor “short run” predictions
I wanna give an example about it. For instance, a 11th year student works hard for getting a good grade in the exam. She or he has to do it because of winning a good university. In this process, he or she sometimes couldn't be satisfied with her/his results. In spite of these frustrations and falls, he/she should try to work and shouldn't give up. Because this is a long run.
Although the word “probability” is used in several differentways, the definition of probability that is most useful in the present con-text is the number of ways a particular outcome (what we call a success)
I agree that probability has a lot of different meanings. On the other hand, I strongly disagree with probability equals to success. Some people use chance instead of probability, then they say '' You are so lucky, how did you achieve?'' I think that in every situation we all have probabilities and we constitute our chances by ourselves.
All medical diagnoses andtreatment decisions are inherently probabilistic, as are decisions made inbusiness, college admissions, advertising, and research
Every thing in life has probability. I don't believe accuracy or inaccuracy. Despite having a small possibility, every thing has a chance.
In understanding complex arguments, it is wise to identify the conclu-sions, premises, assumptions, qualifiers, and counterarguments, and thendiagram the structure of their relationshi
While examining the complex arguments, we have to compound them in detail. Every part is associated with each other.
It is usually easier to identify the conclusion of an argument than the othercomponents
Conclusion is important in differenr areas. For example when we are writing an essay, we have to write a supportive conclusion. Cause it is the last part and bullet point for supporting and finishing the idea. Another example is reasoning. When we are using inductive and deductive reasoning, conclusion sentences are crucial.
The premises are the reasons that support a conclusion
Also, we use premises in deductive and inductive reasoning. We learned it in social psychology and critical thinking. While doing reasoning for something, if we use premises, we may support our ideas definitely.
“argument” is different from its ev-eryday meaning. We say two people “are having an argument” when theydisagree about something in a heated or emotional way.
I agree this opinion. Because in everyday life, we use some words to describe more than one thing and argument is one of them.
As people move from infancy into adolescence, their cog-nitive abilities mature in qualitatively distinct stages culminating with theability to think in orderly, abstract ways.
While children are becoming adolescent and then becoming adults, their personal traits changes over time,too. Because of experiencing bad and good things, difficulties in life, they learn new things every day. This enables them to think differently in every age.
This con-clusion follows logically from the earlier statement. If we know that it is truethat everyone has only one head, then it MUST be true that any specificperson will have only one head.
In the deductive reasoning, the process starts with a theory , adding a hypothesis and observation and lastly give a confirmation.
Thus, with inductive reasoning you can never prove that your con-clusion or hypothesis is correct, but you can disprove it. With inductivereasoning, if the premises are true, the conclusion is probably true
In the inductive reasoning, the process starts with an observation, add a general pattern and end with a conclusion.
In standard form, this paragraph becomes:Premise 1. It is important to talk about things that are on our mind.Premise 2. Household problems are on our mind.Therefore (conclusion): It is important to talk about household problems.
I think this is a great example for inductive reasoning.
Henle (1962)noted that everyday thought does not generally follow the formal rules oflogic because people use their own imperfect rules. If we were not logical, atleast some of the time, we wouldn’t be able to understand each other, “fol-low one another’s thinking, reach common decisions, and work together
It's generally true. Although most people knows what is the tru for them and for the others, they don't choose it. Because most people are not inclined to act with reason and with their brain. We don't always think logically and this affects us in a negative way.
To communicate effectively, you need to know a great many things in ad-dition to the thought being communicated and the words being used asthe vehicle for the communication:
It is clear that communication is very vital for every people and everyone has to know hot to communicate people in public. For example, we can't talk to a professor like we talk to a friend. Because their status, ages is different from each other. We should know which words to choose or how to address.
When you start reading and listening critically to advertisements, you maybe surprised to find appalling attempts to create impressions that canchange beliefs. It is fun to start looking carefully at what advertisementsactually say and what we infer
Advertisements can be used to express something and promote a product, as well as to impose an idea. It is obvious that it plays an active role in changing our fixed thoughts.
weasel phrase that is used so that thereceiver of the communication infers something that is not said because itis not true.
It is a very interesting phrase. I like it. Instead of using bad or another adjective, people may use it more often.
Matt inherited a great deal of money.Bertha loves diamonds and furs.Bertha married Matt.Although very little factual information was provided, it is a meaningfulstory.
I understood from this paragraph is for us to call something a communication and a message, that sentence must be complete and address something.
A communication is “successful” when the underlying representation con-structed by the receiver matches the underlying representation of thesender.
Exactly, some people believe that communication is while one part is speaking the other group is listening. Maybe this is true. However, the good communication is between the receiver and communicator.
If you have taken an introductory class in psychology, then youprobably learned about the pioneering work of Ivan Pavlov.
Yes, I took social psychology in the first semester. So, I learned this before. This is a very interesting experiment for me.
Once you have a memoryof an event, that memorydoes not change.
Mostly disagree!
Memory works like acamera, accuratelyrecording the events wesee and hear.
Strongly agree!
A time line depicting the relationship between learning, memory, andretrieval.
This is the good example of process.
f I asked you what notable athletic event occurred in London in 2012, andyou answered correctly, then I would infer that you learned, retained, andrecalled that London was the site of the 2012 Olympic Games. If you areunable to answer this question, then either: (a) you never learned the factin question; or (b) you learned it, but forgot it; or (c) you could recall it insome other situation, maybe with some recall cues
I think that if a person couldn't reply to other person's question, this not about the unknowing the answer. I think this related to misremebering the details. For example, he or she can remember later. Sometimes the idea that we want to remember, doesn't come up to our brain.
loss of memory is a kind of death. If wehad no memory for our past, the people we are would no longer exist, evenif our bodies continued to function. Our memories are our most valuablepossession
I agree this thought. Because memories make us vivid. Even it is a bad memory, we may learn new things from this bad event and walk along our path stronger.
our schools have required students tolearn, remember, make decisions, analyze arguments, and solve problemswithout ever teaching them how to do so. There has been a tacit assump-tion that adult students already know “how to think.”
Although, this is true approach about thinking critically, thinking is not a teachable thing. Thinking critically is a kind of skill or a talent. This is like a creativity. If the teachers or professors want to teach students to think different than others, this won't happen anytime.