4 Matching Annotations
  1. Dec 2022
    1. I'm actually talking to a group in Hawaii where they want to do the same thing that I did in Finland, as in what were six scenarios to phase it fossil fuels in Finland. Do the same thing in Hawaii. And that's actually now in progress. And the purpose of that work is to be a book in for Iceland, because when we approach Iceland. 01:16:11 How do we do that for Iceland? And so they become two sides to the planet, but you've got an isolated island, they both have geothermal. How would they approach that, and what are their respective problems? So this is the purpose of the global community. We could transfer information from one end of the world to the other. How did we do this? What were the problems? 01:16:35 What were the things that worked? How do we navigate our way out of this? What are the lon-term problems? That's the transfer that's actually happening. So I believe we are looking at the evolution of the human species, like you just said. But if the human species was modeled as a single individual, it'd be like an obese crack 01:17:00 addict that's been told to kick the habit and lose some weight. And it's going to be painful, but this is what we have to do for our survival. And on the other side of that, we're going to be much healthier. This happening at humanity at all scales.

      !- Prototypes : Cosmolocal between Finland, Hawaii and Iceland - Michaux is helping a group in Hawaii learn from Finland's experiences and then both of those can be used to demonstrate to Iceland - knowledge transfer between different communities of practice - this could benefit from an interpersonal, open, cosmolocal knowledge network such as Indyweb

    2. you've got groups like Norway that have oil and gas. Even though it's declining, it's some oil and gas. So they could keep the local region going while we're actually constructing this system. But they've also got a lot of hydro, right? Hydro power, a lot. So all right, so we could actually attach industries, sectors to that. Sweden and Finland has a combination of nuclear but also combined heat and power from biomass, 01:13:50 which also is linked to industry. So how do we organize around that? So we are seeing an ordering across for example, several local nation states at the moment. So the size of the circular economy could span say Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland. And you'll have a circular economy-like structure going between them. 01:14:18 But it's actually the energy sources that will organize the industry, and the industry will organize everything else.

      !- Futures Thinking : Maslow's Hierarchy framing for Manufacturing - More examples: Norway - Oil & Gas, while constructing the future systems, Hydro. Sweden and Finland: nuclear and heat/power from biomass - circular economies between them

    3. I put forward the idea that what might work in the future is alliance between industrial clusters. Not between political nations, industrial clusters. 01:12:58 And you might have a cluster around for example, in Iceland, they've got a lot of geothermal. So much that they can make aluminum, which is almost pure electricity, right? So geothermal makes heavy industries, things like aluminum. They could also make lots of ammonia or hydrogen using the heat. So that's a hub.

      !- Futures Thinking : Maslow's Hierarchy framing for Manufacturing - industrial hubs will emerge where it makes sense - example: Iceland's plentiful geothermal will spawn industrial hub for smelting, or ammonia or hydrogen using the heat

    4. Current manufacturing at the moment is dependent on a very complex, six continent, just in 01:10:00 time supply grid. And when we build something like a computer, it's tough. Pulling stuff from all over the world, and it is like the transport of material goods is irrelevant. It's based on that assumption. I think it will become more regional. Now the current manufacturing system will start to fragment I believe, and we will see the components part of the value chain crash. 01:10:24 Like for example, microchips to go into cars are becoming a problem. Therefore cars are not being produced as much anymore. That's the example. But we'll start seeing that in other sectors. So I can see a situation where the value chain around the components will break down, but then before that, there'll be the ability for smelters to produce metals will start 01:10:49 to become difficult, because concentrate getting to them is no longer what they need to produce effectively. So the part on the end, the car on the showroom floor is the very end of the value chain. And they will become less available and less accessible because the value chain before them is starting to fragment. So when it fragments, we will develop a new technology that is more primitive, is more 01:11:18 robust, can be subject to change, and is more adaptable. And will be sourced within say a 500 kilometer radius around from where the final product winds up. Nate Hagens: So when you say we in this case, do you mean all of humanity, or do you mean those communities and 500 kilometer regions that are thinking 01:11:42 or working ahead? Or how did this come about? Because my challenge with all this is it all generally makes sense. And of course I have a probabilistic view of the future. So we could kick the can another decade maybe, or this could all be upon us by next summer. I don't know. But there will be these parallel things. There's a lot of people that are chomping at the bit to work on the future that you're 01:12:09 describing. But those people are still a tiny fraction of those riding shotgun on the super organism where we need growth, and economies and jobs are going to be the thing that dictate our elections and everything else. And energy security will trump lower carbon, etc. And so we will be pedal to the metal until we hit a wall. 01:12:34 What you're talking about is once we hit a wall, these are the things that need to be in motion.

      !- Futures Thinking : Maslow's Hierarchy framing for Manufacturing - global supply chains are very fragile and not resilient - such systems will begin to fragment as different parts become more scarce, more expensive, it affects anything downstream of the value chain - cars and computers will be produced less if microchips or the minerals that make them up become more scarce - more primitive, available, less energy dense minerals and technologies available within short distance (ie. 500 km) will come to dominate