4,472 Matching Annotations
  1. Last 7 days
    1. for - climate departure - camilo mora

      paper details - title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability - author: - Camilo Mora, - Abby G. Frazier, - Ryan J. Longman, - Rachel S. Dacks, - Maya M. Walton, - Eric J. Tong, - Joseph J. Sanchez, - Lauren R. Kaiser, - Yuko O. Stender, - James M. Anderson, - Christine M. Ambrosino, - Iria Fernandez-Silva, - Louise M. Giuseffi, - Thomas W. Giambelluca - date - 9 October, 2013 - publication Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540 - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

    1. 26:30 Brings up progress traps of this new technology

      26:48

      question How do we shift our (human being's) relationship with the rest of nature

      27:00

      metaphor - interspecies communications - AI can be compared to a new scientific instrument that extends our ability to see - We may discover that humanity is not the center of the universe

      32:54

      Question - Dr Doolittle question - Will we be able to talk to the animals? - Wittgenstein said no - Human Umwelt is different from others - but it may very well happen

      34:54

      species have culture - Marine mammals enact behavior similar to humans

      • Unknown unknowns will likely move to known unknowns and to some known knowns

      36:29

      citizen science bioacoustic projects - audio moth - sound invisible to humans - ultrasonic sound - intrasonic sound - example - Amazonian river turtles have been found to have hundreds of unique vocalizations to call their baby turtles to safety out in the ocean

      41:56

      ocean habitat for whales - they can communicate across the entire ocean of the earth - They tell of a story of a whale in Bermuda can communicate with a whale in Ireland

      43:00

      progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - examples - examples - poachers or eco tourism can misuse

      44:08

      progress trap - AI for interspecies communications - policy

      45:16

      whale protection technology - Kim Davies - University of New Brunswick - aquatic drones - drones triangulate whales - ships must not get near 1,000 km of whales to avoid collision - Canadian government fines are up to 250,000 dollars for violating

      50:35

      environmental regulation - overhaul for the next century - instead of - treatment, we now have the data tools for - prevention

      56:40 - ecological relationship - pollinators and plants have co-evolved

      1:00:26

      AI for interspecies communication - example - human cultural evolution controlling evolution of life on earth

    1. for - stone age 2.0 - stone and lime - new stone age - stone and lime - sustainable building - stone and lime - post-modern construction - sustainable construction - stone and lime - post-modern construction

    2. What is required in the first half of the 21st century is a new form of post-modern construction, relevant to contemporary needs but as sustainable and as environmentally benign as pre-industrial traditional building used to be.

      for - sustainable building - stone age 2.0 - quote - stone age 2.0 - post-modern stone building

      quote - stone age 2.0 - post modern stone building - What is required in the first half of the 21st century is a new form of post-modern construction, - relevant to contemporary needs but as - sustainable and as - environmentally benign - as pre-industrial traditional building used to be.

    3. Such a new post-modern system of construction could produce the loose-fit, low-energy, long-life principles proposed by RIBA President Alex Gordon in the 1970s – and ignored ever since!

      for - post-modern sustainable building - RIBA President Alex Gordon - 1970s proposal for stone system - ignored

    4. This would exploit the compressive strength of stone, which can be greater than that of concrete, combined with post-tensioning by stainless steel rods.

      for - sustainable building - stone age 2.0 - stone for compression - post-tensioned steel rods for tension

    5. the most important reason for preferring lime to cement and concrete is that it facilitates re-use and recycling.

      for - sustainable building - lime is better than cement - it faciliates reuse

    6. The worst thing for stone – and for bricks, come to that – is for them to be bedded, jointed or rendered with hard cement mortars.

      for - sustainable building - cement mortar is the worst thing for re-using bricks

    7. It does not make sense today to quarry limestone, burn it with aluminium and a few other ingredients at extremely high temperatures to create a powder that is mixed with water, sand and gravel to convert it back into a solid material. And concrete is not good in tension. It has to be reinforced with steel in order to build with it.

      for - quote - sustainable building - concrete paradox

      quote - sustainable building - concrete paradox - It does not make sense today to: - quarry limestone, - burn it with aluminium and a few other ingredients at extremely high temperatures to create a powder that is - mixed with - water, - sand and - gravel - to convert it back into a solid material. - And concrete is not good in tension. - It has to be reinforced with steel in order to build with it.

    1. for - progress trap - AI -

      article details - title - Hollow, world! (Part 1 of 5) - author - James Allen - date - 10 July, 2024 - publication - substack - self link - https://allenj.substack.com/p/hollow-world-part-1-of-5

      summary James Allen provides an insightful description of ultra-anthropomorphic AI, AI that attempts to simulate an entire, whole human being.

      In short, he points out the fundamental distinction between the real experience of another human being, and a simulation of one. In so doing, he gets to the heart of what it is to be human.

      An AI is a simulation of a human being. No matter how realistic it's responses and actions, it is not evolved out of biology. I have no doubts that scientists are hard at work trying to make a biological AI. The distinction becomes fuzzier then.

      Current AI cannot possibly simulate the experience of being in a fragile and mortal body and all that this entails. If an AI robot says it understands joy or pain, that statement isn't built on the combined exteroception and interoception of being in a biological body, rather, it is based on many linguistic statements it has assimilated.

    1. for - urban agriculture - 2024 study - 6x carbon footprint as conventional agriculture

      summary - The results are not surprising. It is the infrastructure used to build the urban agriculture system that has the greatest carbon footprint - This can be lowered dramatically by - having longer lasting UA projects - having larger scale projects - reusing urban demolition waste materials to build UA systems

      from - search - Google - 2024 percentage of carbon emissions from food system - https://www.google.com/search?q=2024+percentage+of+carbon+emissions+from+food+system&sca_esv=9d5b952a18faf0f8&sxsrf=ADLYWIIlye-Qwjiqr8aEdCoiJshs-88Yqw%3A1720874425938&ei=uXWSZvvuOMjXhbIP-YeX6Aw&ved=0ahUKEwi7r_HmhKSHAxXIa0EAHfnDBc0Q4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=2024+percentage+of+carbon+emissions+from+food+system&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiNDIwMjQgcGVyY2VudGFnZSBvZiBjYXJib24gZW1pc3Npb25zIGZyb20gZm9vZCBzeXN0ZW0yChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEcyChAAGLADGNYEGEdI3A5QmwhYpA1wAXgBkAEAmAGUA6AB6QiqAQUzLTIuMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCAaACBJgDAIgGAZAGCJIHATGgB6IR&sclient=gws-wiz-serp - search results returned of interest - Food from urban agriculture has carbon footprint 6 times - A new study finds that fruits and vegetables grown in urban farms and gardens have a carbon footprint that is, on average, six times greater . - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/01/240122140408.htm

  2. Jul 2024
    1. I would really argue there hasn't been a better time to make music and there hasn't been a better time to consume and listen to music

      for - question - Is music worse because entry level is lower? - Musicians response - Bernth's response

    1. book come out last year called over the seaw wall his name is Steven Robert Miller

      for - book - Over the Seawall - Steven Robert Miller

      book - Over the Seawall - Steven Robert Miller - A book about PROGRESS TRAPS! - How climate adaptation measures can lead to progress traps, such as - lead to a sense of complacency and false security - leading to overdevelopment - leading to even more people vulnerable to climate and extreme weather events

    2. the information about how bad things have been has not been meaningfully connected to the levers of power there just isn't there's this you know there's been no connection between those two worlds at all um they've sort 00:55:06 of been operating in parallel

      for - climate crisis - disconnect between - levers of power - and information of what is happening

      climate crisis - disconnect between - levers of power - and information of what is happening - there is an abundance of scientific information available to political leaders, yet - they are failing to make the necessary decisions - why?

    3. Global industrialized world is doing today on the planet is that it's just so far out of equilibrium and so beyond um the Al operation of the 00:50:27 carbon cycle that it's just completely it's impossible that it will that it will persist um very far into the future

      for - climate crisis - reflections - perspectives - human vs deep time

      adjacency - between - climate crisis - different perspectives - human vs - deep time - adjacency relationship - Our global industrialized world is perturbing the carbon cycle so far out of equilibrium that the status quo civilization cannot persist very far into the future<br /> - the earth system has been through many such perturbations and it ALWAYS self corrects - Even the most extreme climate events earth has ever experienced are called transient because they are still relatively short in geological time - In the long term, the planet will restore equilibrium no matter how much extreme the perturbations human civilization creates in the next few centuries - In the long term, the earth is going to be fine - Homo sapien is just one of millions of species, most of which have gone extinct - We should NOT feel we are exceptional - We are comparing different timescales: - human lifetimes are measured in a hundred years - earth system time scales are measured in millions of years - even if there were another mass extinction event, on a geological time scale of tens of million years a new biosphere will regenerate and the ocean chemistry will be restored - Here we have an interesting intersectionality of different timescales. - paleontologists provide a deep time perspective - while we humans live in a timescale of no greater than 100 years - our bodies cannot directly sense change in deep time - therefore, any scientific information about deep time will need to go through our cognitive system - Our body is not evolutionarily designed to biologically respond to information on a deep-time timescale - It may be beneficial to help us see from a deep-time perspective to appreciate the geological-scale changes we are responsible for

    4. this very elegant uh argument made by this I think he is a uh he's a physicist I 00:46:11 think at UC San Diego Tom Murphy where he's like even even if you take the most conservative relationship between energy use and economic growth and you plot it out a couple hundred years from now then 00:46:26 the economy is producing so much waste heat that the oceans will be boiling off and in in a thousand years you're like the economy is producing so much waste heat that it's more energy than is put 00:46:38 out in the sun in all directions

      for - limits to economic growth - physics calculations - by Tom Murphy show absurdity of continual growth - energy and waste heat perspective

      to - Nature Physics - LImits to Economic Growth - Tom Murphy - https://hyp.is/CM3Grj9_Ee-obTc6jrPBRA/tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pdf

    5. in completely hijacking the the global car carbon cycle now you know the temperature 00:42:19 of the planet in in the future and the pH of the oceans and the oxygen levels in uh the oceans is no longer you know determined 00:42:32 by Earth system processes like it has been for all of Earth history it is um fundamentally rooted through human institutions

      for - quote - carbon cycle - hijacked by political institutions and business

      quote - carbon cycle - hijacked by political and business institutions - (see below) - In completely hijacking the global car carbon cycle now - the temperature of the planet - the pH of the oceans and - the oxygen levels in the oceans - are no longer determined by Earth system processes like it has been for all of Earth history - it is fundamentally rooted in human institutions - There really isn't any disentangling the the science from the the political

      adjacency - between - carbon cycle - human processes - politics and business - adjacency relationship - The carbon cycle is no longer controlled by earth system processes, - as it has been for billions of years, - but rather by human processes of politics and business

    6. for - Planet Critical podcast - 6th Mass Extinction - interview with science journalist Peter Brannen

    7. neoclassical Economist about you know growth can be totally decoupled from 00:45:45 Material use

      for - progress trap - abstraction - the ECONOMY! - abstracted and separated from nature

    8. I don't really understand what they think uh what it is um if it's not you know 00:45:20 how resources are allocated and um the the transformation of commod you know raw material into finished goods and stuff all that takes energy it all takes material

      for - progress trap - real dangers from - abstraction and siloing

      progress trap - real dangers from - abstraction and siloing - Business processes create workers who live in abstract, symbolic worlds, never seeing the consequences of their symbolic manipulations - At the end of the day, the abstract, symbolic finance industry worker gets a fat salary and lives comfortably, whilist playing with abstractions of processes they are contributing to which they have no sensory information on - the separation of producer from consumer is yet another huge abstraction that cleaves the gestalt into pieces that we cannot see - ANTIDOTE to this - de-abstraction - re-synthesize - Processes have been fragmented and split apart - We need to find ways for people to re-synthesize and assemble the pieces back together again in order to - see and experience the whole picture

    9. the action always begins at home and I I think this idea of like seeing um the seeing one another and the Earth as an extension of like one's own self one's 00:43:35 own body and like the body politic kind of taking over again and coming back to a sense of like ground reality

      for - deep sensing - deep grounding - Deep Humanity grounding

    10. I sort of take the easy way out and say well I know Earth history so maybe I'm 00:32:53 helping people by uh understanding the science of this stuff

      for - educator - polycrisis - individual action - levers - climate and earth history specialists help with education

      educator - earth climate history specialist can help with education about the past to help understand what we face in the present

      climate education - low impact due to - ignoring perspectival knowing - and salience landscapes - It may help to look at the problem of education through the lens of Michael Levin's multi-scale competency architecture - https://hyp.is/FFxzRL2nEe6ghzeLcJGM7A/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10167196/ - Applied to cognitive and cultural evolution within the lifetime of a single individual (human) - The salience landscape of an individual can vary depending on their educational and cultural background - There are multiple categories of concepts, each with their own degree of salience: - immediate phenomenological experience - high salience - second hand, linguistically communicated experience - moderate and dependent on source - scientific reported phenomena - moderate, high or low, dependent on source and cultural / educational background - second hand, linguistically communicated experience - low, moderate or high, dependent on source and cultural / educational background - A key observation is that humans are evolved to detect specific environmental cue but miss many others - The rate of cultural evolution is so rapid that our biologically adapted processes cannot adapt quickly enough to the rapid cultural changes, resulting in the experience of "hyperobjects" - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=+hyperobject - education that is done haphazardly and in an adhoc manner will fail to discriminate between this large variety of salience landscape, with the overall impact of low educational impact

    11. book that's sort of making its rounds in the climate World these days um by this author Brett Christopher I foret what it's called 00:31:25 um oh what is it called oh the price is wrong yeah about how Renewables yeah they're cheaper than ever which people always point at those graphs but just because of the way that you know utilities are set up and the energy system works they're not profitable and 00:31:38 they won't be in the near term

      for - book - The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism won't Save the Planet - Brett Christopher

      to - book - The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism won't Save the Planet - Brett Christopher - https://hyp.is/h01Tyj9uEe-rEhuQgFWRuQ/www.versobooks.com/en-gb/products/3069-the-price-is-wrong

    12. I keep the possibility that um things will look different in the next few decades that I vasate between optimism and pessimism because there's there's plenty of reasons for the latter 00:40:37 but I'm I'm trying to hold space for the the former

      for - climate crisis - we are in a pivotal moment

    13. there was a paper that came out a few years ago showing that five degrees at the pace we're doing would be 00:40:13 is like easily sufficient to reproduce some of these catastrophes in Earth history

      for - climate crisis - 5 deg C could reproduce similar levels of catastrophes as those in early earth history

    14. I don't think humans are going extinct anytime soon um but I do think 00:36:25 the global Industrial you know networked societies might be a lot more fragile

      for - Climate change impacts - human extinction - don't think so - paleontological evidence shows that humans are a resilient species

      Climate change impacts - human extinction - don't think so - paleontological evidence shows that humans are a resilient species - ice ages are really extreme events that humans have survived - Before entering the holocene interglacial period we have been in for the past 10,000 years, the exit from the previous Ice Age took approximately 10,000 years and - there was 400 feet of sea level rise - North America was covered with an Antarctica's equivalence of ice thickness - there was a quarter less vegetation a on the planet - it was dusty and miserable living conditions - There have been dozens of these natural climate oscillations over the past two and a half million years and humans are about 5 to 6 million years old, so have survived all of these - Sometimes in really particularly harsh climate swings,<br /> - speciations of new hominids will appear along with - new tools in the record or - evidence that there's been better control over fire - Humans are resilient and super adaptable - We've lived and adapted to the conditions on all the continents - We will make it through, but modern, industrialized, global society likely won't

    15. I think people need to understand we are up against an event 00:36:00 that is one of six in Earth's history like hurtling towards it at an outrageous Pace in order to kind of galvanize especially leaders

      for - need for reporting negative news - galvanize support

    16. you can't as one person you know solve a global problem like this it's you starts at a 00:34:58 CommunityWide level

      for - validation - cosmolocal community organization - validation - TPF - validation - Living Cities Earth

    17. we are going to need decentralized networks of communities figuring out how to support one another

      for - validation - cosmolocal community organization - validation - TPF - validation - Living Cities Earth

    18. if you could get everyone on the planet to do one thing what would it be and she said stay exactly where you are and figure out 00:33:30 what it is that you can do in your local

      for - cosmolocal movement - validation - Jay Griffith - leverage point - cosmolocal - validation - TPF - validation - Living Cities Earth

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    1. for - economic growth - physical limits to - reductio ad absurdum - physical absurdity of continuing current energy and waste heat trends into the near future

      paper details - title - Limits to Economic Growth - author - Thomas W. Murphy Jr. - date - 21 July, 2022 - publication - Nature Physics, comment, online - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01652-6

      summary - Physicist Thomas W. Murphy employs reductio ab adsurdium logic to prove the fallacy of the assumptions of his argument - In this case, the argument is that we can indefinitely continue to sustain economic growth at rates that have held steady at about 2-3% per annum since the early 1900s. - Using both idealistic and simplified energy and waste heat calculations of energy and waste heat compounding at 2-3% per annum (or 10x per century), Murphy shows the absurd conclusions of continuing these current trends of energy and waste heat emissions on a global scale. - The implications are that physics and thermodynamics will naturally constrain us to plateau to a steady state economy in which the majority of economic activity needs to not depend on physically intensive

      from - Planet Critical podcast - 6th Mass Extinction - interview with science journalist Peter Brannen - https://hyp.is/66oSJD-AEe-rN08IjlMu5A/docdrop.org/video/cP8FXbPrEiI/

    2. An examplein the energy domain demonstrates theabsurdity of indefinite growth in the physicalrealm.

      for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projection example of recent energy trends

      -absurdity of indefinite economic growth - energy projections - Energy growth has typically been 2–3% per year since early 1900's. - This is approximately equivalent to 10x each century - Present-day energy output is 18 TW and extrapolates to - - approx.100 TW in 2100, - approx. 1,000 TW in 2200, etc. - In 400 years, from today, we would exceed the total solar power incident on Earth - In 1300 years from today, we would exceed the entire output of the Sun in all directions - In 2400 years from today, we would exceed the energy output of all 100 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy - This last jump is made impossible by the fact that even light cannot cross the galaxy in fewer than 100,000 years. - Hence, physics puts a hard limit on how long our energy growth enterprise could possibly continue

    3. The red curve in the right panel of Fig.3 shows a more realistic trajectory for theeconomy in the face of a steady physicalscale. In this example, non-physical activitiesare allowed to comprise 75% of the economybefore saturating. Although this upperlimit is arbitrary, its exact value does notchange the resulting saturation of the overalleconomy.

      for - steady state economy - when we hit physical constraints - a major percentage of our economy needs to be non-physical

    4. In this case, the non-physical elements of the economy areconstrained (arbitrarily) to grow no higher than 75% of the total, resulting in only a modest amount ofdecoupled economic growth before flattening.Nature PHysics | www.nature.com/naturephysics

      for - adjacency - question - degrowth? - circular economy? - steady state - regenerative processes

      adjacency - between - degrowth - circular economy - regenerative practices - steady state economy - adjacency relationship - Where did the 75% number come from? Is there anything special about it? Is it some kind of a limit from the model? - Would circular and regenerative practices play an important role in this? - This would seem to indicate a degrowth type scenario. Degrowth is a misnomer, it doesn't imply continual economic downward trend, - but is specifically addressing a the decrease of physical human economic activity - that is responsible for our excessive pollution load / biodiversity loss - to levels necessary to avoid the worst impacts - It isn't explicitly stated that the other half of degrowth is growth of non-physical economic activity that nurtures and nourishes humanity

    5. It seems ludicrous to imagine that these vitalresources incapable of further expansionwould become essentially free of charge.

      for - question - transition - from capitalism to a form of socialism?

      question - capitalism to a form of socialism? - To say it seems ludicrous is an opinion that makes sense from a traditional capitalists perspective - From a socialist perspective, it seems feasible - Nothing is free of charge, however, even in socialism, there is always some price an individual must pay, it's more about the incentive structure that differentiates the two - capitalism - polarized towards self-centric perspective - socialism -balanced self-and-other perspective

      adjacency - between - capitalism - socialism - differing perspective on self/other worldview - adjacency relationship - While capitalism relies on a self-centric perspective, socialism relies on a more balanced self/other perspective

    6. Continued economic growth in the faceof steady-state physical resources wouldrequire all growth to be effectively in thenon-physical sector, possibly assisted bymodest efficiency improvements in howwe use physical resources.

      for - decoupling - economic growth from - physical resources

    7. it is unclear what mightprevent economic growth from continuingapace even in the context of stalled growthin the physical domain. The idea of‘decoupling’ in economics addresses exactlythis point.

      for - question - decoupling economics from physical resources- degrowth?

      question - decoupling economics from physical resources- degrowth? - The author seems to be talking about continuing an economy with - less and less reliance on physically intensive activities, hence significantly reducing our carbon and physical resource intensity

    8. We must therefore becareful to understand the phenomenonand its implications so that we do not toallow a panicked departure from growththat may result in unnecessary suffering orill-intentioned opportunists exploitingthe chaos

      for - question - climate adaptation - resiliency - how do we prepare for potential collapse?

      question - climate adaptation - how do we prepare for potential collapse? - How do we prepare? - preparation needs to take place at national, community and individual / family level - Resiliency will depend on how ill prepared we are at each of these levels - How do we prepare for: - high levels of suffering - ill-intentioned opportunists who are ready to exploit the chaos?

    9. The thermodynamic limitsexplored above, for instance, apply to anyenergy technology we care to imagine.

      for - question - fusion and deep geothermal

      question - I suppose it also applies to - nuclear fusion if it becomes feasible and - deep geothermal

    10. Given that assumptions of quantitativegrowth are pervasive in our society andhave been present for many generations,it is perhaps not surprising that growth isnot widely understood to be a transientphenomenon. Early thinkers on the physicaleconomy, such as Adam Smith, ThomasMalthus, David Ricardo and John Stuart Millsaw the growth phase as just that: a phase9

      for - quote - economic growth - pioneering economists saw growth not as permanent, but as just a temporary phase

      quote - economic growth - pioneering economists saw growth not as permanent, but as just a temporary phase - (see below) - Given that - assumptions of quantitative growth are pervasive in our society and - have been present for many generations, - it is perhaps not surprising that growth is not widely understood to be a transient phenomenon. - Early thinkers on the physical economy, such as - Adam Smith, <br /> - Thomas Malthus, - David Ricardo and - John Stuart Mill - saw the growth phase as just that: a phase

    11. Another way to frame physicallimitations to growth is in terms of wasteheat, which is the end product of nearlyall energetic utilization on Earth.

      for - absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends

      absurdity of indefinite economic growth - waste heat projection example of recent waste heat trends - At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. - But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. - Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription.

    1. for - transition - renewable energy - won't work - because - the price is wrong! - Brett Christopher - green energy - the price is wrong - transition - alternative to capitalism - book - The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism won't Save the Planet - Brett Christopher

      summary - This book provides rationale for why capitalism won't scale renewable energy, but a public sector government approach might - What about the alternative of community-owned or cooperative-owned energy infrastructure? A pipe dream? - Is renewable energy just not profitable and therefore has to be subsidized? - Perhaps it could be seen as a stopgap to buy us time until fusion, deep geothermal or other viable, scalable options become widespread?

      from - Planet Critical podcast - 6th Mass Extinction - interview with paleontologist Peter Brennan - https://hyp.is/3ss3Vj9vEe-iDX-3vRVlFw/docdrop.org/video/cP8FXbPrEiI/

    1. If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.

      for - quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce

      quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce - (see below) - If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, - mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans - through anthropogenic global warming, - which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.

    2. 1000-ton rule

      for - 1000 ton rule

      1000 ton rule - approximately one future human death for every 1,000 tons of carbon emissions burned

    1. it's um really it's it's a beautiful system because an approach because it is quick and it is scalable in that sense and within three months 00:16:54 we we can start uh commercialize individual farms whether that's small holder farmers looking to supplement their income or larger uh estates and and farming cooperatives

      for - seawater farming - business startup speed - 3 month

    2. what we're looking at is developing these really these seawater farming units that can turn this land into into sea water farms 00:16:15 will be grow these these crops

      for - seawater farming - replacing normal agriculture in Bangladesh flood plain

    3. there are over 300 edible salt marsh and wetland species that grow exclusively with seawater uh and currently we're only familiar with one or two of them so it's about this culture of of changing mindsets towards 00:11:52 these highly nutritious and valuable food crops as well

      for - stats - seawater farming crops - 300 edible species

      stats - seawater farming crops - 300 edible species - education campaigns and cooking classes to publicize and new edible crops

    4. within six months we saw a real increase in um in in organic matter from from one percent to eight percent

      for - stats - seawater farming - soil nutrition impacts - 8% increase in 6 months

    5. that often leads into salinization where groundwater is brought up because of higher rates of evaporation um and that leaves salt on top of the 00:06:59 the ground

      for - soil problem - soil salinization due to higher rates of evaporation

    6. how can we farm with less rainfall but also with less water retentive soils

      for - agriculture - climate change challenge - less rainwater and less water retentive soils

    7. over a third of the world soils are heavily degraded

      for - stats - agriculture - 1/3 of world's soils are degraded

    8. they store up to 30 times more carbon than uh the rainforest

      for - stats - carbon sequestration - salt marshes - 30x more sequestration than rainforests

    9. for - saltwater agriculture - saltwater farming - seawater farming - saline agroecology - Seawater solutions - Yanick Nyberg

    1. for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details

      paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository

      summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting

      from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/

    1. for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points

      comment - The author raises valid critique of Centola's 25% threshold. - His main critique concerns the experiment not representing real world complex scenarios and is summarized in 3 points: - The experimental method used is an oversimplification of the complexity of real world complex issues such as climate change denial and meat eating, which are deeply ingrained beliefs in many cases. - No such attachment exists in the experimental setup - In the experiment, the subjects were incentified. In complex real world issues, there is often no incentive structure - Real life isn't all 1-1 interactions

      to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points - https://hyp.is/Aocs0D7WEe-knadNGOYVog/prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32

    2. I’ll pull out a few key points as to why I think this approach is far too simplistic to be meaningful

      for - social tipping point - critique

      social tipping point - critique - This is a good critique of the social tipping point 25% threshold applied to complex contagion, as claimed by Centola - Does Centola et al . have any experimental evidence applied to real complex contagion?

    1. the thought has occurred to me that we need a new religion that religion is one of the few things 01:09:15 that will make people act in ways beyond their own immediate interest well i've heard a lot of people say that

      for - rapid whole system change - need for a new religion - Ronald Wright reflections

      comment - Deep Humanity is not a religion, but a deeper understanding of our own humanity, what is it to be human? - but just as important, to understand the distinction between - human nature and - nature - For if human nature is a subset of nature, - which the adjective-noun "human nature" implies - then there is something within humans that is of nature herself - Is it possible that the many fragmented spiritual paths that have emerged in different parts of the world merely reflect the different environs from which they developed, and that in fact, they all are searching for the same essence? - If so, then in perhaps the times we are in are calling us for a global recognition of our common denominators that make us ALL human, - and then the even deeper common denominator with nature herself - So what are those qualities we all have in common as human beings? - and also, what are the qualities our species has in common with nature herself? - neuroscientist David Eagleman coined the term "possibileanism". Perhaps it is that?

    2. most of the great religions in the world have been attempts to to restrain or reform uh human nature or at least uh channel our worst impulses into something 01:10:48 more productive or higher something loftier um and in this this is exactly what we need here it's something that will create a form of altruism which doesn't only extend to people we see around us now but extends 01:11:00 to the future generations

      for - rapid whole system change - need for something that will create a new form of altruism - Ronald Wright - transition - requires an experience of re-awakening transition - need for a new religion? Deep Humanity?

      comment 10 July 2024 - Deep Humanity is our attempt at this. It is not a religion, however. It is humanity, but in the deepest sense, so it is accessible to anyone in our species. Our tagline has been - Rekindling wonder in an age of crisis - However, this morning an adjacency occurred:

      adjacency - between - familiarity - wonder - adjacency relationship - Familiarity hides wonder - Richard Dawkins said: - There is an anaesthetic of familiarity, - a sedative of ordinariness - which dulls the senses and hides the wonder of existence. - For those of us not gifted in poetry, - it is at least worth while from time to time - making an effort to shake off the anaesthetic. - What is the best way of countering the sluggish habitutation brought about by our gradual crawl from babyhood? - We can't actually fly to another planet. - But we can recapture that sense of having just tumbled out to life on a new world - by looking at our own world in unfamiliar ways. - That is, when a type of experience becomes familiar through repeated sensory episodes, - we lose the feeling of wonder we had when we initially experienced it - It's much like visiting a place for the very first time. We are struck with a sense of wonder because everything is unpredictable, in a safe way. We have no idea what's around the next corner. It's a surprise. - However, once we live there, and have traced that route hundreds of times, we have transformed that first magical experience into mundane experience. - So it is with everything that makes us human, with all the foundational things about reality that we learned from the moment we were born. - They have all become jaded. We've forgotten the awe of those first experiences in this reality: - our first experience of our basic senses - our first breath of air, instead of amniotic fluid - our first integration of multiple sensory experiences into a cohesive whole - the birth of objectification - the very first application of objectification to form the object we called mOTHER - the Most significant OTHER - our first encounter with the integration of multiple sensory stimuli associated with each object we construct - our first encounter with auditory human, speech symbols - our first experience with object continuity - how objects still exist even if they disappear from view momentarily - do we remember freaking out when mOTHER disappeared from view momentarily? - our first ability to communicate with mOTHER through speech symbols - our first encounter with ability to control our bodies through our own volition - our first encounter with gravity, the pull towards the ground - our first encounter with a large bright sphere suspended in the sky - our first encounter with perspective, how objects change size in our field of view as they get nearer or farer - etc... - What's missing now, is that we have repeated all these experiences so many times, that the feeling of awe no longer emerges with life - To generate awe, the repertoire of existing experiences is insufficient - now we have to create NEW experiences, we have to create novelty - Mortality Salience can help jolt us out of this fixation on novelty, and remind us of the sacred that is already here all the time - For, what happens at the time of death? All the constructions we have taken for granted in life disappear all at once, or perhaps some before others - Hence, we begin to re-experience them as relative, as constructions, and not absolutes - All living organisms have their own unique umwelt - These umwelts are all expressions of the sacred, sensing itself in different ways

      • What is required is a kind of awakening, or re-awakening
      • When religions do their job, it gives us a framework to engage in a shared sense of the sacred, of wonder in the mundane
      • In a sense, Deep Humanity is identifying that most vital commonality in all religions and seeing all their diverse intersectionalities in simply being deeply human
      • We awakened once, when we were born into the world
        • then we fell asleep through the dream of familiarity
      • Now, we have to collectively re-awaken to the wonder we all experienced in that initial awakening experience as newborns
    3. i think it's a near miss it's the most likely thing to save us

      for - quote - unfortunately, I think we need a near miss to wake us up - Ronald Wright

      comment - But the problem is that we can't count on that because it may very well be too late by then - Is the extreme weather events now happening regularly enough to wake us up?

    4. that calls for a new form of altruism plus a new form of asceticism

      for - rapid whole system change - a new form of asceticism - Ronald Wright - Give me liberty or give me death - degrowth challenges

      rapid whole system change - a new form of asceticism - We need something that can be higher than stripping away many of the liberties we take for granted? - This will be challenging because the American dream is based on the feeling and phrase "Give me liberty or give me death!"

    5. in the past these collapses of civilizations were local and people could migrate a little further on and rebuild but the chances of of that are gone now i mean we have to we have to uh to to 01:03:18 uh get right with what we have because it's all we have you know we we all all those bets we placed when our ancestors invented civilization they all rest on one high stakes throw which is 01:03:32 now

      for - progress trap - modernity can't run away anywhere from its ruins

    6. the flood legend which you 01:01:10 find in ancient sumerian documents and of course in the bible um a sort of symbolic distillation of many catastrophic floods that happened those 01:01:21 great floods were almost certainly caused by deforestation of the surrounding watersheds

      for - adjacency - great biblical floods - deforestation

      adjacency - between - biblical and other stories of great floods of the past - deforestration - adjacency relationship - Wright speculates that a not insignificant number of the numerous great floods in history could be attributed to deforestation of the surrounding watershed - Forests on the hills and mountains, the land acts like a sponge - The tree roots, leaves, mosses, mycelium networks all act to regulate the effects of sudden rainfall or dry spells

    7. some ice ages broke up in a matter of decades or even a few years suddenly

      for - progress trap - planetary tipping points - rapid climate destabilization

      reference - Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past - https://phys.org/news/2024-02-ice-cores-documentation-rapid-antarctic.html

    8. does agriculture become a 00:51:16 progress trap has it been a progress trap well i think i think in a sense it has

      for - progress trap - Agriculture appears to be a progress trap - Ronald Wright

      argument - progress trap - Agriculture appears to be a progress trap - Ronald Wright - The early progress traps have been comparatively small in scale - During the stone age, there were no more than a few million people alive (3 to 5 million?) and - they destroyed all the big game where humans lived - The Sumerians, with a population of around one million people salted up and destroyed the fertile land of Southern Iraq - Now we have 8 billion people and a third of them are starving - Our continuous technology development is what enables us to stave off the day of reckoning but - we are losing a Scotland-size worth of topsoil every year to - soil erosion - urban sprawl - We still face the possibility of collapse - Our species has existed for 5 to 6 million years and - civilization is an experiment that has only emerged about 10,000 years ago - It's still very possible for the experiment to fail

    9. we've achieved a level of prosperity for a huge number of people that was not typical of the past i mean most countries have a big middle class as well as an extremely wealthy upper 00:50:00 class but the number of people in abject poverty in the world today living on less than two dollars a day is greater than the entire population of the world 00:50:13 only 100 years ago so that's not progress

      for - statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty

      statistics - progress trap - comparative levels of poverty - modern civilization has - a huge middle class - a small elite class - a huge impoverished class - The absolute number of people living on less than 2 dollars a day is less than the entire population of humans only 100 years ago

    10. that's part of the logic of agriculture isn't it i mean you have a lot of work to do yeah a lot of people you know but there again you're you're in a progress trap or or a treadmill that you need more children 00:48:57 so you can work more land and then that more land provides more food so you have yet more children

      for - progress trap - the agricultural-large family positive feedback loop

      progress trap - the agricultural-large family positive feedback loop - Interesting to compare modern vs agricultural societies - Populations are dropping in most western countries around the contemporary world, yet - traditional agricultural societies had large families to tend to large amount of agricultural work - There is a progress trap potential with encouraging many large families with a limited land resource: - If you have larger families, you can cultivate more land - If you cultivate more land, you can have even larger family - until you reach a point when the land has been exhausted and you are now forced to reduce the population

    11. do we have 00:46:13 examples of civilizations um that really accepted limits

      for - progress trap - cultures that avoided progress trap of population explosion - Tahiti - via infanticide

      progress trap - cultures that avoided progress trap of population explosion - Tahiti - via infanticide

      • Tahitians practiced population control via
        • infanticide
          • It was ok to kill a newborn baby before it drew its first breath, as it was not considered a person until it drew the first breath
        • advanced Eroticism - separating sexual activity from reproduction
    12. he myth that progress will go on forever and will everything will get bigger and better and we don't have to control our numbers or demand on nature because we will always find a way to make it work we have to break out of that 00:45:21 mindset

      for - progress trap - dangerous mythology

      progress trap - dangerous mythology - We subscribe to a dangerous myth that: - progress will go on forever and - everything will get bigger and better and - we don't have to control our numbers - or our demand on nature - because we will always find a way to make it work

      • We have to break out of that mindset
    13. so there's an example perhaps of a very good 00:44:17 agricultural system that is sustainable as long as you don't let the population get out of hand and you could say the same probably of rice paddy cultivation in asia

      for - progress trap - agriculture that could work - historical terraced cultivation in Peru and China

    14. the two sort of outstanding examples uh that i can think of are 00:39:39 egypt and china and both of those places have a an unbroken tradition of civilization that lasted something like 3000 years or more

      for - progress traps - exceptional civilizations - Egypt and China

      progress traps - exceptional civilizations - Egypt and China - While 1,000 years seems to be the norm for the lifetime of an average civilization, China and Egypt have both endured 3 times as long - Egypt had the self-replenishing Nile River with topsoil being washed down from Ethiopia every year to maintain their soil fertility - So they avoided the salinity problem until modern times with the construction of high dams that have had unintended consequences - China also had unusual conditions of exceptionally deep layers of annually replenished topsoil called loess that were formed by being blown in by the wind from surrounding areas

    15. i think partly i write about these grim things in order to make people imagine them 00:38:35 because only by imagining how bad it can get are we likely to take the very difficult action that we need to take to avoid ending up in that situation

      for - writer's motivation - Ronald Wright

    16. they feel incredibly resentful that they have not benefited from the the wealth generated 00:38:07 from by this uh system that was once uh uh promised them so much uh and so i i i think you know there and that's just one example among many uh in in the less prosperous parts of the world you could 00:38:21 you'd see many more

      for - progress trap - inequality - resentment

      progress trap - inequality - resentment - rapid emergence of the far-right and populus - Indeed we see so much resentment everywhere. For example, the far-right and populus could only emerge so rapidly because of such resentment of being left behind.

    17. if we fail to control our numbers and our appetites well then yes our society will start to to crash in a similar way to that of 00:35:32 easter island only on a worldwide scale and that means the whole industrial civilization will break down and 00:35:45 our descendants will essentially be uh savages to use that term very advisably and savages in the sense that they will have lost 00:35:58 the fruits of civilization and hate us

      for - progress trap - dark futures scenario - like Easter Island but on a global scale

      comment - The potential global breakdown of global industrialized society, rupturing supply chains so that our highly interdependent world becomes the very Achilles Heel that hastens its demise is chilling - It could mean a huge disruption to the most important aspect of civilization - the continuing accruing and inter-generational transmission of knowledge - It would be catastrophic to lose that, but it is entirely possible - As Wright himself famously said, to use a computer metaphor, we humans are like 50,000 year old hardware, running modern software - By that, he meant that our cognitive physiology (brain and sensory processing system) has not changed for tens of thousands of years, yet cultural evolution happens at exponentially faster rates, so much so that our biological systems are not adapted to keep up with the pace, and that spells disaster - When we no longer have the sensory or cognitive apparatus to sense danger, and we are offloading that to AI, we are in an extremely vulnerable situation

      progress trap - Gedanken - Think of our ancestors from 50,000 years ago. - What Wright is saying with his metaphor is that if that child from 50,000 years ago were transported by a time machine to modernity, (s)he would have little problem integrating into modern society - LIKEWISE, if we lose all the knowledge fruits of accumulated over so many thousands of years, it would be like being born into a human tribe 50,000 years ago. - We would likely still have language, but all our technology may have to start from scratch!

    18. for - progress traps - interview - Ronald Wright

      summary - In this more recent interview, Ronald Wright, author of "A Short History of Progress" and advocate of the idea of "progress traps", offers his cogent take on the world today, as refracted and reflected through an archeological lens - Wright sheds light on the relevance of history and especially archeology on our contemporary polycrisis, illustrating how, while different in details, are very similiar to the same mistakes our ancestors of every age have made - The archeology lessons of Sumeria, Stone age humans, Easter Island and more illustrate that it is dangerous to romanticize our ancestors as their mistakes cost them their civilizations, as much as the current mistakes we are now making may cost ours - I would add that our own Stop Reset Go and Deep Humanity research compliments Wright's superb work on Progress Traps with ideas borrowed from the East - specifically, Shunyata or Emptiness - Complimenting progress traps with Emptiness reveals another dimension of the perennial problem our species face since time immemorial, and in every generation henceforth - Deep Humanity integrates Progress with Emptiness, the individual with the collective, friends with enemies and proposes that we are approaching a singularity in our species, - in which all past civilizations are converging in one heterogenous entity in modernity - and the future of our species will depend on whether we can culturally adapt quickly enough to the multiple existential risks we now face - Our future as a viable evolutionary species may depend on the collective direction we move in in the next few years, of resolving the age-old quagmire of the holographic unnamable present in every one of us born into a living and dying body, continually fractures itself into violently polarized pieces. - Do we have the collective foresight to penetrate our own ignorance?

    19. it's a very tough one for a lot of people to make because nobody wants to think there are limits like that 00:32:14 nobody wants to think that there's not going to be enough to go around

      for - progress trap - habits of thinking - limits - liberty

      progress trap - habits of thinking - limits - liberty - Technology has provided us with ever increasing types and scales of liberty - We cannot imagine taking away those liberties!

    20. we don't look ahead and that may derive from the fact that we evolved as hunters 00:30:31 and a hunter is always looking for the next animal to kill

      for - key insight - we evolved from hunters - who don't look beyond the next animal we kill

      key insight - we evolved from hunters - who don't look beyond the next animal we kill - We are in a binge mode of subsistence that requires instant gratification - This is the same default thinking that runs our economy and much of our lives and it takes effort to counter it

    21. one of the things i suggested in a short history of progress is that 00:30:18 one of our problems even though we're very clever as a species we're not wise

      for - key insight - progress trap - A Short History of Progress - we are clever but NOT wise!

      key insight - progress trap - A Short History of Progress - we are clever but NOT wise! - In other words - Intelligence is FAR DIFFERENT than wisdom

      new memes - We have an abundance of intelligence and a dearth of wisdom - A little knowledge is dangerous, a lot of knowledge is even more dangerous

    22. easter island

      for - progress trap - archeology - Easter Island

      progress trap - archeology - Easter Island - The archeology tells the fascinating story of the progress trap that Eastern Island ancestors created. - Easter Island is desolate and only 64 square miles total - It is located 2,000 miles (3218 km) from the nearest landmass of South America - Archeologists trying to piece together the stone monoliths of Easter Island found pollen samples in the crater lakes on the island, proving that the place was once a thriving forest - By the time the first Europeans landed (the Dutch) on Easter Island, it was just grassy hills - How did it go from a lush forest land to a grass land? - The layers of pollen samples told a story - The aboriginal polynesians that the Dutch explorers encountered arrived about 1,000 years earlier - They cut down the forest, grew their population and used trees in many ways, including to transport the huge stone monoliths that paid respect to their ancestors - The original people multiplied then separated into separate warring tribes - The environment was devastated as the logging destroyed the forest and all the abundant ecosystem that provided for their sustenance - This created severe erosion and the soil became impoverished - The tribes collapses into warfare and cannibalism

      progress trap - Easter Island - Sumeria etc - lesson - don't romanticize our ancestors - Human groups have continuously sabotaged themselves through overexploitation and lack of foresight - Progress traps have been a constant part of our species for a long, long time

    23. what was going through the mind of the person who cut down the last tree knew it was the last tree

      for - comparison - Easter Island vs Climate deniers

      comparison - Easter Island vs Climate deniers - When they cut down their last trees, the Easter Islanders could not even build canoes to transport themselves off the island - Climate deniers think the same way - justifying in whatever way they can the continuation of the current unsustainable system, until history will prove them too late

    24. written history you can only get in literate societies and and the invention of writing is quite recent and in and in some areas the world extremely recent 00:23:25 so you you just don't have a great big depth of history but archaeology goes back tens hundreds and thousands of years and even millions of years especially when you're talking 00:23:37 about the evolution of our species

      for - comparison - history vs archeology - Ronald Wright

      comparison - history vs archeology - Ronald Wright - Written history is very recent but archeology can go back hundreds of millions of years

    25. you should in theory be able to make a 00:21:08 civilization live on the interest from natural capital rather than eating into the capital itself

      for - quote - metaphor - progress trap - live off the interest, not the principal of nature - Ronald Wright

    26. example is weaponry

      for - progress trap - example - weapons leading to nuclear weapons

      progress trap - example - weapons leading to nuclear weapons - These are the most ironic inventions of civilization - We spend significant percentages of our budgets maintaining and escalating them, meanwhile, we all know we cannot use them as it would mean billions would die

      quote progress trap - nuclear weapons - When you're talking nuclear weapons that can never be used you're investing in something that's completely useless - that you're maybe burying in the ground in the form of missile silos or - you're putting into submarines or - into aircraft or missiles - You can never use these things and they are draining off the surplus that might otherwise be used into - wealth redistribution and into - long-term sustainability

    27. the progress trap and the pyramid scheme are not all that different

      for - adjacency - progress trap - pyramid scheme

      adjacency - between - progress trap - pyramid scheme - adjacency relationship - the pyramid sales scheme works as long as you can - continue to draw in new investors and new buyers - you concentrate the wealth upwards - you're not actually making real wealth - you're simply taking the wealth from the rubes who are coming in, in order to pay off the people who invested earlier to make it seem like it's a sustainable enterprise when it isn't (ponzi scheme) - Unfortunately, civilizations in their relationship to nature seem to follow that pattern - They expand the base and then when the base can't be expanded anymore - then all the environmental problems that have been hidden by constant expansion suddenly come back and hit them in the face - And those environmental problems of course cause social problems - They very often cause revolutions and wars because - suddenly people realize the pie is not getting bigger so therefore they become discontented with the small slice that they're getting, - unless they're people at the top of the pyramid - So it's a pyramid in the sense of a social pyramid too

    28. civilization a progress trap

      for - progress trap - civilization itself is one

    29. we have had a completely stable climate for more than 10 000 years in which to develop agriculture and probably 00:16:12 you can't develop agriculture if you're experiencing a great deal of climate fluctuation because your experiment will fail at some point due to frost or drought

      for - history - agriculture - Holocene required

      history - agriculture - Holocene required - Ronald Wright makes a good point, without a long stable climate period such as the Holocene, agricultural experimentation would not have succeeded

    30. another example would be um the internal combustion engine

      for - progress trap - example - internal combustion engine / fossil fuels

      progress trap - example - internal combustion engine / fossil fuels - This is one of my favorite examples. - Nobody could foresee that the ICE burning fossil fuels could lead us to destabilize Earth's entire climate system

    31. a seductive trail of successes that leads to a catastrophic end

      for - definition - progress trap - Ronald Wright

      definition - progress trap - A seductive trail of successes that leads to a catastrophic end - Ronald Wright - defined in his book "A Short History of Progress"

    32. in the case of the new world the the the maize plant the wild maize plant had a little cob on it that was only about one centimeter long

      for - corn - thousands of years to breed from 1 cm cob to present size - transition - stone age to agriculture - importance of women

    33. when you've killed off all the big game and you're sort of running around hunting rabbits and small birds and you're starting to think this 00:11:49 really isn't good enough and probably in those those hunting societies is usually the women and children who do the gathering and they were probably uh producing 00:12:02 a bigger and bigger percentage of the food supply from their activities

      for - progress - transition from stone age hunter gatherers to agriculture - role of women and children

    34. although is by no means the only place agriculture has been invented from scratch in probably at least half a dozen places around the world at least

      for - agriculture was invented in at least a dozen places around the world

    35. they went from from gathering 00:10:31 to gardening and then full-scale agriculture

      for - meme - from gathering to gardening - Ronald Wright

      meme - from gsthering to gardening - Ronald Wright - (quote - see below) - As the last ice age ended, - where a lot of people were trying to find a new way to make a living and - were reaping wild grasses and other wild plants - and gradually realized that - if they put some of the best seed back - they could go back to the same place and get more the next year and - over many thousands of years, they went - from gathering to gardening and then - full-scale agriculture - Anf they were doing the same thing with animals - they were finding that they started by following wild goats and donkeys around and - later on, realized that you could keep these things in a pen and then eventually you could domesticate them - and that area had a particularly wide range of wild species that were suitable for domestication

    36. human beings drove themselves out of eden and they have done it again and again by fouling 00:09:40 their own nests

      for - quote - Humans drive themselves out of Eden - Ronald Wright

      quote - humans drive themselves out of Eden - (see below) - Human beings drove themselves out of eden and - they have done it again and again - by fouling their own nests

    37. the really big progress traps uh come with with the invention of 00:07:20 agriculture and i i mentioned the first full-blown civilization in the old world the sumerians who perfected the art of irrigation 00:07:33 in what is now southern iraq

      for - progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization

      progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization - the really big progress traps uh come with with the invention of agriculture and - i mentioned the first full-blown civilization in the old world the sumerians who perfected the art of irrigation in what is now southern iraq and - for for several centuries everything went really well - They had built canals and ran the water onto the desert and were able to - raise more and more crops and - expand their farmland and - expand their population and - their cities got bigger - their numbers got greater but - what they didn't know is that the kind of irrigation they were practicing - was causing the land to get saltier and saltier - and after a number of centuries they suddenly saw their farm meals declining because of salinity - and they had to switch to crops that could tolerate more salt - and then eventually they ended up producing only about one quarter of the food that they'd been able to produce when they started -and the civilization collapsed - So they had walked into what i call in my book a progress trap - and this is where the myth of progress is so seductive - You do something that in the short run produces obvious benefits so you're getting this positive feedback from some new invention, whether it's - a new way to drive mammoth over a cliff or - it's a new way to expand your farm base through irrigation - but there's a hidden cost down the road which is often hard to foresee

    38. the idea that this can go on forever is where the myth of progress gets 00:04:00 dangerous because

      for - quote - myth of progress - Ronald Wright

      quote - myth of progress - Ronald Wright - (see below) - although the idea that this can go on forever is where the myth of progress gets dangerous - because there have been many times and places in the human past, - not even necessarily in our own cultural tradition - among other civilizations where there have been great periods of - expansion and - prosperity - and everybody started to get the idea that life was getting better and better - but usually those those periods of rapid expansion are done and nature pays the bills for that

      Comment - history repeats when we forget the lessons of that part. - Historians are so important right now to remind us of past lessons

    39. until relatively modern times uh until really the beginning of the enlightenment of the industrial revolution people thought of progress in a moral sense 00:02:17 or a spiritual sense

      for - definition - progress

      definition - progress - before enlightenment, progress was defined in a moral and spiritual sense - after the enlightenment and industrial revolution, it was defined in a material sense

    40. myths are not necessarily untrue they're usually 00:03:33 partly true the danger lies in the part that isn't true and um so it it's partly true we have

      for - quote - myths - Ronald Wright - adjacency - myths - perspectival knowing - emptiness - progress trap

      Quote - Myths - Ronald Wright - (see below) - Myths are not necessarily untrue. They're usually partly true. The danger lies in the part that isn't true.

      Comment. - What a great little sentence! - From this perspective, so many things that people claim as "true" are actually myths.

      adjacency - between - myths - progress traps - perspectival knowing - emptiness - adjacency relationship - Myths emerge out of perspectival knowing of reality (Vervaeke) - The emptiness of reality is in stark contrast to reductionist thinking which is always relatively incomplete in comparison - This leads to the emergence of progress traps

    41. the idea took hold that and this was defined by the british economist uh sydney pollard in his book called the idea of progress and i'm just 00:02:54 paraphrasing here but essentially he said the uh the i the assumption is that there's a pattern of change in history and that 00:03:07 these consist of changes in one direction only and that that direction is towards improvement

      for - definition - progress - material - economist Sydney Pollard - improvement

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    1. if someone is addicted to  McDonald's, addicted to their smartphone and   purchasing, addicted to whatever, it leads to more  market activity. It goes up with diseases that are   treated through for profit processes.

      for - reference - book - Gross Domestic Problem - https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/gross-domestic-problem-9781780322728/

    2. Is it better  for the people that are using it? No.

      for - progress trap - example - cell phone usage

    3. If we are having narrowly  defined goals, as we discussed last time,   that can be achieved while externalizing harm  in other places, and we do a lot of that,   and we look at all of the goal achieving and not  all the externalities, we can call that progress.

      for - progress trap - achieving narrowly defined goals with externalities

      progress trap - achieving narrowly defined goals with externalities - Within the field of progress traps, - progress is the focus on intended consequences and - progress traps are the unintended consequences reference - Ronald Wright - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=Ronald+Wright

    4. for - podcast - great simplification - Nate Hagen - guest - Daniel Schmachtenberger - topic progress

    1. here are seven classes of fats in our diet seven and some of them will save your life and some of them will kill you

      for - health - 7 classes of dietary fat - to - article showing vegetarians can get enough DHA from non-animal, plant-based dietary sources

      health - 7 classes of dietary fat - arranged from best to worst - omega 3 - alpha lonolenic acid (ALA - EPA (icosopentinoic acid) - DHA (docohexainoic acid) - only from marine life - fish - vegans and vegetarians NEED DHA to function properly. They cannot get in outside of fish. This poses a real problem - monosaturated fatty acids - olive oil

      to - Physician's committee article on Omega-3 Fatty Acids and Plant-Based Diets claims that vegetarians do get enough DHA from non-animal sources - https://hyp.is/_4klxD1jEe-VvxuChksdEw/www.pcrm.org/good-nutrition/nutrition-information/omega-3

    2. fish oil capsules from fish that ate algae well that means wild fish because Farm fish don't eat algae

      for - key insight - farmed fish have no omega 3 because they eat corn, not algae

    3. ll of these ultimately damaged the mitochondria

      for - health - causes of mitochondrial dysfunction

      health - causes of mitochondrial dysfunction - dietary sugar - parabens - radiation from space - chlorpyrifos - glyphosate - insecticides - air pollution

    4. working on the space shuttle that they have inherent mitochondrial 00:10:20 dysfunction just from the ambient radiation because they're not protected by the Earth's atmosphere so can you imagine what's going to happen on a Mars mission 00:10:32 there'll be lucky they can crawl out of the capsule when they get back home because their mitochondria going to be so dysfunctional

      for - health - mitochondrial dysfunction - radiation - radiation in space causes mitochondrial dysfunction

    5. there are a lot of things that can damage the mitochondria okay poor diet in general will damage 00:09:16 the mitochondria because mitochondria are made of fats but they're made of specific fats and if you don't get enough of those specific fats in your diet essential fatty acids in your diet you can't make good mitochondria

      for - adjacency - mitochondria - good dietary fats

      adjacency - between - mitochondria health - good dietary fats - adjacency relationship - good dietary fats are essential to good mitochondria health because mitochondria are made of fats and require essential fatty acids as building blocks

    6. what caused the mitochondrial dysfunction the answer to that is multiple things but the one that is you know sort of front and center the 00:07:57 one that is sort of everywhere the one that you can't seem to escape dietary sugar the fructose molecule the sweet molecule in Sugar

      for - health - mitochondrial dysfunction - main reason - dietary sugar

    7. the question is why are the mitochondria not doing their job why is the self not responding to insulin 00:05:34 that's the issue different tissues different reasons but the main one is the liver

      for - question - health - insulin resistance - why aren't mitochondria within cells not responding to insulin?

      question - health - insulin resistance - why aren't mitochondria within cells not responding to insulin? - The fat cells are being stored in the liver, resulting in - fatty liver disease - The liver stores the fat cells floating in blood (triglycerides) then recirculates it back to the cells. - The cells and liver are caught up in a vicious cycle of "hot potatos" with the fat cells.<br /> - (See Stanford explainer video above)

    8. insulin takes glucose from the blood and also fats from the blood in the form of triglyceride 00:03:11 and stuffs it in cells for a rainy day

      for - health - insulin and insulin resistance - simple explanation - to - insulin resistance - clear and simple explainer video - Stanford University health - insulin - simple explanation - insulin stores sugars and tryglycerides floating around in the blood into cells. - more detailed explanation - when blood glucose rises, then beta cell of pancreas start to secrete insulin to bind to glucose and put into cells for storage - Watch this clear, short video explaining insulin resistance from Stanford University - https://hyp.is/4Ymu4D1ZEe-jFfeB23zicA/docdrop.org/video/U1cr14xffrk/

    9. having a high blood glucose is a manifestation of the problem not the problem itself because if you 00:02:34 didn't have the mitochondrial dysfunction you wouldn't have the high blood glucose so the high blood glucose is Downstream of the actual problem 00:02:45 and insulin is a way to shall we say cover up the problem

      for - key insight - insulin covers up the real problem of mitochondria dysfunction

    10. metabolic syndrome

      for - health - insulin resistance - metabolic syndrome

      health - insulin resistance - metabolic syndrome - When your mitochondria doesn't work, it results in insulin resistance - Metabolic syndrome includes an enormous variety of the major diseases afflicting modernity - up to 75% of the diseases that affect modern humans and - up to 75% of today's health care costs - and includes - type 2 diabetes - hypertension - dyslipidemia - cardiovascular disease - cancer - dementia - fatty liver disease - pollycystic ovarian disease - (he didn't include strokes here but he mentions throughout his talk)

    11. for - personal health - metabolic disease - insulin resistance caused by mitochondria dysfunction - interview - Dr. Robert Lustig - health - dangers of sugar in our diet

      summary - Robert Lustig is a researcher and major proponent for educating the dangers of sugar as the root cause of the majority of preventable western disease - He explains how sugar and carbs are a major variable and root cause of a majority of these diseases - It is useful to look at these bodily dysfunctions from the perspective of Michael Levin, in which all these diseases of the body are problems with lower levels of the multi-scale competency architecture - https://jonudell.info/h/facet/?max=100&expanded=true&user=stopresetgo&exactTagSearch=true&any=michael+levin%2C+multi-scale+competency+architecture

    12. insulin resistance is actually 00:01:14 Downstream of something even more important that we will talk about called mitochondrial dysfunction

      for - health - insulin resistance - a symptom of mitochondria dysfunction

    1. for - diet - vegetarian - sources of omega 3 DHA - from - prof. emeritus Robert Lustig talks about lack of DHA omega 3's in plant-based diets

      Robert Lustig says that it is a concern that vegetarians don't have a good non-animal source of omega 3 DHA but this source seems to show research that show vegetarians can get enough DHA

      from - prof. emeritus Robert Lustig talks about lack of DHA omega 3's in plant-based diets - https://hyp.is/sMonLj1gEe-nPdM5M2H0qQ/docdrop.org/video/WVFMyzQE-4w/

    1. but as the situation continues it may require more and more and more insulin to get the same amount 00:02:40 of glucose into the cells

      for - key insight - health - insulin resistance

      key insight - health - insulin resistance - This is the key to the mechanism by which insulin levels increase in the blood. - As our diet places higher levels of glucose in the blood, the pancreas responds by releasing more and more insulin to process this elevated level of insulin and the cells respond, - but the cells, especially surrounding the organs no longer store fat when a certain threshold of high insulin is reached - high amounts of visceral fat around the organs is then accompanied by fat being released by the cells into the blood stream, elevating triglyceride levels - The liver then starts to take this up and if there are now elevated trigycerides in the bloodstream, the liver and cells get locked into a vicious cycle of fat release

    2. for - explanation - insulin resistance - Stanford University

      explanation - insulin resistance - Standard University - great explanation from Standford University

      from - Prof. Emeritus Robert Lustig on root cause of insulin resistance - https://hyp.is/RFJQrj1aEe-nIQu5Sj1fyw/docdrop.org/video/WVFMyzQE-4w/

    1. when someone has an elevated fertin level you need to dig 00:33:27 into you know is their fertin elevated because they have elevated total body iron or do they have inflammation

      for - health - heart - ferritin marker

      health - heart - ferritin marker - If ferritin test shows high ferritin levels (abnormally high iron levels) it means swelling in the body, called inflammation. - Conditions that can cause inflammation include - liver disease, - rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions, - overactive thyroid - hyperthyroidism - https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/ferritin-test/about/pac-20384928#:~:text=If%20a%20ferritin%20test%20shows%20high%20ferritin%20levels%2C%20it%20most,and%20overactive%20thyroid%2C%20called%20hyperthyroidism.

    2. the vast majority of hypertension high blood pressure the root cause is insulin resistance metabolic disease

      for - health - heart - majority of hypertension and high blood pressure is caused by insulin resistance metabolic disease

    3. many of these patients had high lipids and high blood pressure and they were given beta 00:28:25 blockers and thide diuretics which as you know also have the same consequence as the statins do in in exacerbating insulin resistance

      for - health - heart - Beta-blocker/thiazide diuretic combos

      health - heart - Beta-blocker/thiazide diuretic combos - This combo lowers the blood pressure by - removing excess water and salt from the body and - slowing the heart rate. - These only mask the symptoms CAUSED BY INSULIN RESISTANCE

    4. inflammation is a very important part of the development of heart disease

      for - health - heart - the critical role of inflammation

    5. you can take these medications you can expose yourself to the risk of the medications 00:26:57 or or you can change the way you eat you can deal with the true underlying problem insulin resistance

      for - health - heart - root cause of heart disease - lifestyle choices - dietary choice

      health - heart - root causes of heart disease - lifestyle choices - dietary choice - root cause of insulin resistance is poor diet with too much sugar and carbs and other variables such as excessive alcohol - dietary changes can shift lipid particles to large, fluffy LD particles - high sugar and carbs is a main factor leading to insulin resistance

      to - Root cause of insulin resistance - interview with Robert Lustig - https://hyp.is/l14UvjzwEe-cUVPwiO6lIg/docdrop.org/video/WVFMyzQE-4w/

    6. we use relative risk reduction instead of absolute risk 00:26:45 reduction and it makes it look like there's a greater effect than there actually is

      for - medical deception - communicating relative risk instead of absolute risk is misleading and gives the appearance of a greater effect

    7. stat in use more than 10 years increases your risk of developing insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes which are two primary drivers of heart 00:26:07 disease

      for - progress trap - statins

      progress trap - statins - heart health - Long term studies show that the mainstream prescription of statins to lower LDL levels over 10 year period increases risk for: - insulin resistance and - type 2 diabetes - both of which are primary drivers of heart disease - hence, Statins are a progress trap

    8. who are these people that have a high LDL but they are metabolically healthy

      for - health - heart - need to identify those with high LDL but ARE metabolically healthy

      health - heart - high LDL AND metabolically healthy - against medical norms, there may be NO NEED TO LOWER THEIR LDL levels - and in fact, trying to do so may lead to harm

    9. most people with elevated LDL cholesterol that's going to be combined with metabolic disease as I said earlier 00:24:14 90% of adults essentially are metabolically unhealthy

      for - health - heart - In most people, LDL occurs with metabolic disease, and that's the dangerous situation

    10. the amount of your LDL isn't the whole story the quality of your LDL cholesterol particles is very important in this

      for - health - heart - LDL score

      health - heart - LDL score - The AMOUNT of your LDL score is not as important as - The QUALITY of your LDL score - ALL high LDL isn't dangerous

    1. whoever the Democratic nominee may be um anyone is preferable to uh the uh Prospect of a 00:10:40 Donald Trump emboldened by this decision and threatening to start imposing autocracy

      for - key insight - key issue of 2024 election is NOT which democrat to vote for, but to prevent autocracy at any cost

    2. the greater danger 00:09:34 is that the opinion sets up a kind of permission structure for Trump to do other lesser things

      for - authoritarian regime playbook - take gradual steps to degrade democracy - Trump given permission to perform anti-democratic actions that don't raise red flags

    1. the erosion between whiteness andgainful employment that Davidson and Saul arguedled to a cultural backlash from white Americans andhas caused them to move from the left to the far-rightas a form of retaliation against the neoliberal cosmo-politan left.

      for - key insight - gainful employment of white working class led to cultural backlash and shift from left to far-right - to - Neoliberalism and the Far-Right: A Contradictory Embrace

      key insight - gainful employment of white working class led to cultural backlash and shift from left to far-right - source - Davidson and Saul

      to - Neoliberalism and the Far-Right: A Contradictory Embrace - https://hyp.is/8Hf0lDzqEe-KM9dQxJDxsw/core.ac.uk/download/pdf/84148846.pdf

    2. Economic Policy Institute,by the year 2032 the majority of the working class willbe composed of people of colo

      for - stats - whites become minority percentage of US working class by 2032

      stats - whites become minority percentage of US working class by 2032 - From Economic Policy Institute

      to - People of color will be a majority of the American working class in 2032 -

    3. for - adjacency - Neoliberalism - rise of the Far-Right - paper summary

      paper summary - title: Backfire: How the Rise of Neoliberalism Facilitated the Rise of the Far-Right - author: Jacob Fuller - date: April 2023 - publication: The Compass: Vol.1: Iss. 10, Article 3 - download link: https://scholarworks.arcadia.edu/thecompass/vol1/iss10/3

      summary - A good paper that examines the root causes of the ascendency of the far-right in U.S. politics, based on harmonizing two theories - emergence of neo-liberalism - racialized economic anxieties

      • NAFTA is complex and is often oversimplified
      • See this article that discusses its complexities

      to - How Did NAFTA Affect the Economies of Participating Countries? - https://hyp.is/0j7PsjyUEe-LGOsFIWCyWA/www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/north-american-free-trade-agreement.asp

    4. “deathsof despair.”

      for - definition - deaths of despair

      definition - deaths of despair - Deaths of white working class due to massive loss of livelihood caused by offshoring. - These deaths are characterized by drug overdoes, liver failure, smoking related cancers, etc - author: Case and Deaton

    5. The job losses described here are notupper management positions but rather jobs formerlyoccupied by the white working class.

      for - types of jobs lost to China - adjacency - job losses of white working class - far-right support for nationalism and protectionism

      types of jobs lost to China - mostly white working class - upper management jobs did not suffer much job loss

      adjacency - between decimated white working class - far-right - nationalism - protectionism - adjacency relationship - The decimated white working class are strong supporters of far-right politics - Pain and suffering of the white working class is a root cause for voting against perceived neoliberalism, which they blame for their loss of livelihood Protectionism and nationalism is a desire to bring the jobs back home

    6. Dueto the cheaper cost of manufacturing in China, manyU.S. companies have outsourced their labor abroad.This has resulted in a massive trade deficit betweenthe U.S. and China and has led to a loss of around 2.4million jobs since 2013, or almost two-thirds of allU.S. manufacturing jobs

      for - stats - US trade deficit with China

      stats US trade deficit with China - Due to the cheaper cost of manufacturing in China, many U.S. companies have outsourced their labor abroad. - This has resulted in - a massive trade deficit between the U.S. and China and - has led to a loss of around 2.4 million jobs since 2013, or - almost two-thirds of all U.S. manufacturing jobs

    7. This decline in agricultural produc-tion, coupled with a sheer reduction in wages due toa lack of labor and regulatory standards in the agree-ment, created over 1.3 million lost jobs in the Mexicanagricultural sector alone, leading to an unprecedentedlevel of immigration into the United States

      for - quote - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - stats - Mexico - NAFTA job loss

      quote - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - - This decline in agricultural production, - coupled with a sheer reduction in wages due to a lack of labor and regulatory standards in the agree- ment, - created over 1.3 million lost jobs in the Mexican agricultural sector alone, - leading to an unprecedented level of immigration into the United States

      stats - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - Mexico lost 1.3 million jobs due to mass migration to the US due to NAFTA

    8. fol-lowing the signing of NAFTA there has been a drasticincrease in the number of Mexican immigrants arriv-ing to the United States through the Southern Border

      for - NAFTA impacts - US - Mexico

      NAFTA impacts - US - Mexico - NAFTA was a neoliberal trade deal brokered between the US, Canada and Mexico to promote "free trade" - 10 years after signing NAFTA, Mexico reduced tariffs of US agricultural products<br /> - This resulted in a form of subsidizing US farmers, who outcompeted Mexican farmers, - causing many Mexican farmers to move or illegally migrate to the U.S.

    9. he defines the far-right as expresslynationalistic groups, which focus heavily on homog-enization within the nation.

      for - definition - far right

      definition - far right - The Far-right is defined as individuals and groups that they belong to which are expressly nationalistic, focusing heavily on homogenization within a nation. - defined by Arie Perlinger

    1. for - from - demographic trends - U.S. - people of color in majority of working class by 2032

      summary - These statistics show a major U.S. labor force trend of - people of color constituting the majority of the working class by 2032, -10 years earlier than predicted by the U.S. census bureau. - This is a source of racial tensions in the United States being fanned by the far-right - The bigger picture is that - the working class has universally been ignored and - class inequality has been the result of a complex set of variables that - are fundamental structural issues common to both major political parties

      from - Backfire: How the Rise of Neoliberalism Facilitated the Rise of The Far-Right - https://hyp.is/F6XYujyREe-TaldInE8OGA/scholarworks.arcadia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=thecompass

    2. Improving the living standards of all working-class Americans while closing racial disparities in employment and wages will depend on how well we seize opportunities to build multiracial, multigendered, and multigenerational coalitions to advance policies that achieve both of these goals

      for - political polarization - challenge to building multi-racial coalition - to - Wired story - No one actually knows how AI will affect jobs

      political polarization - building multi-racial coalitions - This is challenging to do when there is so much political polarization with far-right pouring gasoline on the polarization fire and obscuring the issue - There is a complex combination of factors leading to the erosion of working class power

      automation - erosion of the working class - Ai is only the latest form of the automation trend, further eroding the working class - But Ai is also beginning to erode white collar jobs

      to - Wired story - No one actually knows how AI will affect jobs - https://hyp.is/KsIWPDzoEe-3rR-gufTfiQ/www.wired.com/story/ai-impact-on-work-mary-daly-interview/

    3. reducing racial inequality means also addressing class inequality

      for - key insight - Wage stagnation is a universal problem of the working class and reducing racial and gender inequality goes hand-in-hand with reducing class inequality.

    4. demography will have an impact on the future of the American economy, politics, and social infrastructure.

      for - key insight - demographic shift will have major implications on U.S. economy, politics and social infrastructure.

    5. The age cohort projected to make the earliest transition to majority-minority is the one that includes workers age 25 to 34. These are today’s 18- to 27-year-olds and for them, the projected transition year is 2021.

      for - stats - 25 to 34 year old people of color is earliest U.S. working class cohort to transition in the year 2021.

    6. The prime-age working-class cohort, which includes working people between the ages of 25 and 54, is projected to be majority people of color in 2029.

      for - stats - majority of U.S. working class will be people of color by 2029

      stats - majority of U.S. working class will be people of color by 2029 - prime-age U.S. working class cohort is age 25 to 54

    7. the working class is projected to become majority people of color in 2032

      for stats - U.S. working class projected to become majority people of color by 2032.

      stats - U.S. working class projected to become majority people of color by 2032. - source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    8. In 2013, the working class—made up of those with less than a bachelor’s degree—constituted nearly two-thirds (66.1 percent) of the civilian labor force4 between ages 18 and 64.

      for - stats - U.S. working class - 666.1% of civilian workforce between 18 and 64

    1. NAFTA displays the classic free-trade quandary: Diffuse benefits with concentrated costs.

      for - key insight - free trade - from - Backfire: How the Rise of Neoliberalism Facilitated the Rise of The Far-Right

      quote - free trade - (see below)

      key insight - free trade - NAFTA displays the classic free-trade quandary: - Diffuse benefits with - concentrated costs - While the economy as a whole may have seen a slight boost, - certain sectors and communities experienced profound disruption. - A town in the Southeast loses hundreds of jobs when a textile mill closes, - but hundreds of thousands of people find their clothes marginally cheaper. - Depending on how you quantify it, the overall economic gain is probably greater but barely perceptible at the individual level; - the overall economic loss is small in the grand scheme of things, - but devastating for those it affects directly.

      from - Backfire: How the Rise of Neoliberalism Facilitated the Rise of The Far-Right - https://hyp.is/F6XYujyREe-TaldInE8OGA/scholarworks.arcadia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=thecompass

    2. for - NAFTA free trade - complexities

      NAFTA free trade deal - complexities - NAFTA was a a very complex trade deal and it's not so easy to calculate its net impacts

      from - How neoliberalism played a role in emerging the far-right - https://hyp.is/F6XYujyREe-TaldInE8OGA/scholarworks.arcadia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=thecompass

  3. Jun 2024
    1. for - AI - inside industry predictions to 2034 - Leopold Aschenbrenner - inside information on disruptive Generative AI to 2034

      document description - Situational Awareness - The Decade Ahead - author - Leopold Aschenbrenner

      summary - Leopold Aschenbrenner is an ex-employee of OpenAI and reveals the insider information of the disruptive plans for AI in the next decade, that pose an existential threat to create a truly dystopian world if we continue going down our BAU trajectory. - The A.I. arms race can end in disaster. The mason threat of A.I. is that humans are fallible and even one bad actor with access to support intelligent A.I. can post an existential threat to everyone - A.I. threat is amplifier by allowing itt to control important processes - and when it is exploited by the military industrial complex, the threat escalates significantly

    2. a dictator who wields the power of superintelligence would command concentrated power unlike 00:50:45 anything we've ever seen

      for - key insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - dictator controlling superintelligence

      meet insight - AI - progress trap - nightmare scenario - locked in dictatorship controlling superintelligence - millions of AI controlled robotic law and enforcement agents could police their populace - Mass surveillance would be hypercharged - Dictator loyal AI agents could individually assess every single citizen for descent with near perfect lie detection sensor - rooting out any disloyalty e - Essentially - the robotic military and police force could be wholly controlled by a single political leader and - programmed to be perfectly obedient and there's going to be no risks of coups or rebellions and - his strategy is going to be perfect because he has super intelligence behind them - what does a look like when we have super intelligence in control by a dictator ? - there's simply no version of that where you escape literally - past dictatorships were not permanent but - superintelligence could eliminate any historical threat to a dictator's Rule and - lock in their power - If you believe in freedom and democracy this is an issue because - someone in power, - even if they're good - they could still stay in power - but you still need the freedom and democracy to be able to choose - This is why the Free World must Prevail so - there is so much at stake here that - This is why everyone is not taking this into account

    3. this is why it's such a trap which is why like we're on this train barreling down this pathway which is super risky

      for - progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity

      progress trap - double bind - AI - ubiquity - Rationale: we will have to equip many systems with AI - including military systems - Already connected to the internet - AI will be embedded in every critical piece of infrastructure in the future - What happens if something goes wrong? - Now there is an alignment failure everywhere - We will potentially have superintelligence within 3 years - Alignment failures will become catastrophic with them

    4. getting a base model to you know make money by default it may well learn to lie to commit fraud to deceive to hack to seek power because 00:47:50 in the real world people actually use this to make money

      for - progress trap - AI - example - give prompt for AI to earn money

      progress trap - AI - example - instruct AI to earn money - Getting a base model to make money. By default it may well learn - to lie - to commit fraud - to deceive - to hack - to seek power - because in the real world - people actually use this to make money - even maybe they'll learn to - behave nicely when humans are looking and then - pursue more nefarious strategies when we aren't watching

    5. this company's got not good for safety

      for - AI - security - Open AI - examples of poor security - high risk for humanity

      AI - security - Open AI - examples of poor security - high risk for humanity - ex-employees report very inadequate security protocols - employees have had screenshots capture while at cafes outside of Open AI offices - People like Jimmy Apple report future releases on twitter before Open AI does

    6. the alignment problem

      for - definition - AI - The Alignment Problem

      definition - The Alignment Problem - When AI intelligence so far exceeds human intelligence that - we won't be able to predict their behavior - we won't know if we can trust that the AI is aligned to our intent

    7. open AI literally yesterday published securing research infrastructure for advanced AI

      for - AI - Security - Open AI statement in response to this essay

    8. this is a serious problem because all they need to do is automate AI research 00:41:53 build super intelligence and any lead that the US had would vanish the power dynamics would shift immediately

      for - AI - security risk - once automated AI research is known, bad actors can easily build superintelligence

      AI - security risk - once automated AI research is known, bad actors can easily build superintelligence - Any lead that the US had would immediately vanish.

    9. the model Waits are just a large files of numbers on a server and these can be easily stolen all it takes is an adversary to match your trillions 00:41:14 of dollars and your smartest minds of Decades of work just to steal this file

      for - AI - security risk - model weight files - are a key leverage point

      AI - security risk - model weight files - are a key leverage point for bad actors - These files are critical national security data that represent huge amounts of investment in time and research and they are just a file so can be easily stolen.

    10. our failure today will be irreversible soon in the next 12 to 24 months we will leak key AGI breakthroughs to the CCP it will 00:38:56 be to the National security establishment the greatest regret before the decade is out

      for - AI - security risk - next 1 to 2 years is vulnerable time to keep AI secrets out of hands of authoritarian regimes

    11. here are so many loopholes in our current top AI Labs that we could literally have people who are infiltrating these companies and there's no way to even know what's going on because we don't have any true security 00:37:41 protocols and the problem is is that it's not being treated as seriously as it is

      for - key insight - low security at top AI labs - high risk of information theft ending up in wrong hands

    12. if you have the cognitive abilities of something that is you know 10 to 100 times smarter than you trying to to outm smarten it it's just you know it's just not going to happen whatsoever so you've effectively lost at that point which means that 00:36:03 you're going to be able to overthrow the US government

      for - AI evolution - nightmare scenario - US govt may seize Open AI assets if it arrives at superintelligence

      AI evolution - projection - US govt may seize Open AI assets if it arrives at superintelligence - He makes a good point here - If Open AI, or Google achieve superintelligence that is many times more intelligent than any human, - the US government would be fearful that they could be overthrown or that the technology can be stolen and fall into the wrong hands

    13. whoever controls superintelligence will possibly have enough power to seize control from 00:35:14 pre superintelligence forces

      for - progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario

      progress trap - AI - one nightmare scenario - Whoever is the first to control superintelligence will possibly have enough power to - seize control from pre superintelligence forces - even without the robots small civilization of superintelligence would be able to - hack any undefended military election television system and cunningly persuade generals electoral and economically out compete nation states - design new synthetic bioweapons and then - pay a human in Bitcoin to synthetically synthesize it

    14. military power and Technology progress have been tightly linked historically and with extraordinarily rapid technological 00:34:11 progress will come military revolutions

      for - progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction

      progress trap - AI and even more powerful weapons of destruction - The podcaster's excitement seems to overshadow any concern of the tragic unintended consequences of weapons even more powerful than nuclear warheads. - With human base emotions still stuck in the past and our species continued reliance on violence to solve problems, more powerful weapons is not the solution, - indeed, they only make the problem worse - Here is where Ronald Wright's quote is so apt: - We humans are running modern software on 50,000 year old hardware systems - Our cultural evolution, of which AI is a part of, is happening so quickly, that - it is racing ahead of our biological evolution - We aren't able to adapt fast enough for the rapid cultural changes that AI is going to create, and it may very well destroy us

    15. this is where we can see the doubling time of the global economy in years from 1903 it's been 15 years but after super intelligence what happens is it going to be every 3 years is it going be every five is it going to 00:33:22 be every year is it going to be every 6 months I mean how crazy is the growth going to be

      for - progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries

      progress trap - AI triggering massive economic growth - planetary boundaries - The podcaster does not consider the ramifications of the potential disastrous impact of such economic growth if not managed properly

    16. AGI level factories are going to shift from going to human run to AI directed using human physical labor soon to be fully being run by swarms of human level robots

      for - progress trap - AI and human enslavement?

      progress trap - human enslavement? - Isn't what the speaker is talking about here is that - AI will be the masters and - humans will become slaves?

    17. super intelligence is going to be like this across many domains it's going to be 00:31:42 able to find exploits in human code too subtle for humans to notice and it's going to be able to generate code too complicated for any human to understand even if the model spent decades trying to explain it

      for - progress trap - superintelligence threat

      progress trap - superintelligence threat - super intelligence is going to be far beyond our cognitive capabilities across many domains. For example, - it's going to be able to find exploits in human code too subtle for humans to notice - it's going to be able to generate code too complicated for any human to understand - even if the model spent decades trying to explain it - How do we entrust ourselves to a superintelligence that is so far beyond us? If it thinks we are expendable, it could easily find our weaknesses and bring about extinction

    18. be able to quick Master any domain write trillions lines of code and read every research paper in every scientific field ever written

      for - AI evolution - projections for capabilities by 2030

      AI evolution - projections for 2030 - AI will be able to do things we cannot even conceive of now because their cognitive capabilities are orders of magnitudes faster than our own - Write billions of lines of code - Absorb every scientific paper ever written and write new ones - Gain the equivalent of billions of human equivalent years of experience

    19. you're going to have like 100 million more AI research and they're going to be working at 100 times what 00:27:31 you are

      for - stats - comparison of cognitive powers - AGI AI agents vs human researcher

      stats - comparison of cognitive powers - AGI AI agents vs human researcher - 100 million AGI AI researchers - each AGI AI researcher is 100x more efficient that its equivalent human AI researcher - total productivity increase = 100 million x 100 = 10 billion human AI researchers! Wow!

    20. nobody's really pricing this in

      for - progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project!

      progress trap - debate - nobody is discussing the dangers of such a project! - Civlization's journey has to create more and more powerful tools for human beings to use - but this tool is different because it can act autonomously - It can solve problems that will dwarf our individual or even group ability to solve - Philosophically, the problem / solution paradigm becomes a central question because, - As presented in Deep Humanity praxis, - humans have never stopped producing progress traps as shadow sides of technology because - the reductionist problem solving approach always reaches conclusions based on finite amount of knowledge of the relationships of any one particular area of focus - in contrast to the infinite, fractal relationships found at every scale of nature - Supercomputing can never bridge the gap between finite and infinite - A superintelligent artifact with that autonomy of pattern recognition may recognize a pattern in which humans are not efficient and in fact, greater efficiency gains can be had by eliminating us

    21. perhaps 100 million human researcher equivalents running day and night t

      for - stats - AI evolution - equivalent of 100 million human researchers working 24/7

      stats - AI evolution - equivalent of 100 million human researchers working 24/7 - By 2027, the industry's aim is to have tens of millions of GPU training clusters, running - millions of copies of automated AI researchers, or the equivalent of - 100 million human AI researchers working 24/7

    22. Sam mman has said that's his entire goal that's what opening eye are trying to build they're not really trying to build super intelligence but they Define AGI as a 00:24:03 system that can do automated AI research and once that does occur

      for - key insight - AGI as automated AI researchers to create superintelligence

      key insight - AGI as automated AI researchers to create superintelligence - We will reach a period of explosive, exponential AI research growth once AGI has been produced - The key is to deploy AGI as AI researchers that can do AI research 24/7 - 5,000 of such AGI research agents could result in superintelligence in a very short time period (years) - because every time any one of them makes a breakthrough, it is immediately sent to all 4,999 other AGI researchers

    23. if this scale up 00:20:14 doesn't get us to AGI in the next 5 to 10 years it might be a long way out

      for - key insight - AGI in next 5 to 10 years or bust

      key insight - AGI in next 5 to 10 years or bust - As we start approaching billion, hundred billion and trillion dollar clusters, hardware improvements will slow down due to - cost - ecological impact - Moore's Law limits - If AGI doesn't emerge by then, then we will need to have major breakthrough in - architecture or - algorithms

    24. we are on course for AGI by 2027 and that these AI 00:19:25 systems will basically be able to automate basically all all cognitive jobs think any job that can be done remotely

      for - AI evolution - prediction - 2027 - all cognitive jobs can be done by AI

    25. suppose that GPT 4 training took 3 months in 2027 a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT 4 00:18:19 level model in a minute

      for - stat - AI evolution - prediction 2027 - training time - 6 OOM decrease

      stat - AI evolution - prediction 2027 - training time - 6 OOM decrease - today it takes 3 months to train GPT 4 - in 2027, it will take 1 minute - That is, 131,400 minutes vs 1 minute, or - 6 OOM

    26. by 2027 rather than a chatbot you're going to have something that looks more like an agent and more like a coworker

      for - AI evolution - prediction - 2027 - AI agent will replace AI chatbot

    27. this is where we talk about un hobbling this is of course something that we just spoke about before but the reason that this is important is because this is where you can get gains from a model in ways that you couldn't previously see 00:15:31 before

      for - definition - hobbling - AI

    28. the inference efficiency improved by nearly three orders of magnitude or 1,000x in less than 2 years

      for - stats - AI evolution - Math benchmark - 2022 to 2024

      stats - AI evolution - Math benchmark - 2022 to 2024 - 50% increase in accuracy over 2 years - inference accuracy improved 1000x or 3 Orders Of Magnitude (OOM)

    29. there is essentially this Benchmark 00:09:58 called the math benchmark a set of difficult mathematic problems from a high school math competitions and when the Benchmark was released in 2021 gpt3 only got 5%

      for - stats - AI - evolution - Math benchmark

      stats - AI - evolution - Math benchmark - 2021 - GPT3 scored 5% - 2022 - scored 50% - 2024 - Gemini 1.5 Pro scored 90%

    30. having an automated AI research engineer by 2027 00:05:14 to 2028 is not something that is far far off

      for - progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher

      progress trap - AI - milestone - automated AI researcher - This is a serious concern that must be debated - An AI researcher that does research on itself has no moral compass and can encode undecipherable code into future generations of AI that provides no back door to AI if something goes wrong. - For instance, if AI reached the conclusion that humans need to be eliminated in order to save the biosphere, - it can disseminate its strategies covertly under secret communications with unbreakable code

    31. it is strikingly plausible that by 2027 models 00:03:36 will be able to do the work of an AI researcher SL engineer that doesn't require believing in sci-fi it just requires in believing in straight lines on a graph

      for - quote - AI prediction for 2027 - Leopold Aschenbrenner

      quote - AI prediction for 2027 - Leopold Aschenbrenner - (see quote below) - it is strikingly plausible that by 2027 - models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher SL engineer - that doesn't require believing in sci-fi - it just requires in believing in straight lines on a graph

    32. he Talk of the Town has shifted from 10 billion compute clusters 00:01:16 to hundred billion do compute clusters to even trillion doll clusters and every 6 months another zero is added to the boardroom plans

      for - AI - future spending - trillion dollars - superintelligence by 2030

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    1. quite frankly a lot of artists and 00:21:16 producers are probably using it just for that they come up with something inspiration they go they make something new

      for - Generative AI music - producers and artists using for inspiration

      comment I would agree with this. Especially since the AI music currently sounds lo-fi

    2. what if a band decides to take one of the udio generated songs and re-record it entirely will they own the full copy rate to that very new recording now if I 00:21:03 was udio the answer probably be like no you made that thing using our platform

      for - AI music issues - rerecording an AI music generated song - copyright question

    3. the AI created Music learned from got inspiration from the hit songs and came up with a great new hit song for you and then kind of you 00:13:21 know what we'll call those those artifacts or the little similarities here and there might get picked up by Content ID on YouTube

      for - AI music - youtube content ID algorithms can identify it

    4. here's a way to do direct to 00:16:46 Consumer sell and can make some money and don't just be like so worried about being on the music platform streaming and now you're diluted because the AI

      for - new music sales model - direct to consumer - helps mitigate AI music

    5. there's a huge disparity between state of law application of tech and what's 00:15:42 actually happening

      for - AI - law - too slow

    6. to your point for 00:13:46 every problem there's going to be a solution and AI is going to have it and then for every solution for that there's going to be a new problem

      for - AI - progress trap - nice simple explanation of how progress traps propagate

    7. this is more of a unfair competition 00:10:36 issue I think as a clearer line than the copyright stuff

      for - progress trap - Generative AI - copyright infringement vs Unfair business practice argument