Title: Millionaire spending incompatible with 1.5 °C ambitions Authors: - Stefan Gossling - Andreas Humpe

• Abstract

  • Research question

    • Growing evidence suggests that the wealthiest individuals contribute disproportionally to climate change.
    • This study considers the implications of a continued growth in the number of millionaires for emissions,
      • and its impact on the depletion of the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (about 400 Gt CO2).
    • The study presents a model that extrapolates observed growth in millionaire numbers (1990–2020)
      • and associated changes in emissions to 2050.

  • Results

    • The share of US$2020-millionaires in the world population will grow from 0.7% today to 3.3% in 2050,
      • and cause accumulated emissions of 286 Gt CO2.
    • This is equivalent to 72% of the remaining carbon budget,
      • and significantly reduces the chance of stabilizing climate change at 1.5 °C.
    • Continued growth in emissions at the top
      • makes a low-carbon transition less likely,
      • as the acceleration of energy consumption by the wealthiest
      • is likely beyond the system's capacity to decarbonize.
    • To this end, we question whether policy designs
      • such as progressive taxes targeting the high emitters
    • will be sufficient.

// and if it is not sufficient, then what?