I'd weakly guess that it doesn't get them all the way to covering a 10x compute gap — probably it narrows the gap several times.
【结论的不可证伪性】全文的核心结论是「蒸馏+溢出大概能弥补几倍差距，但不够弥补十倍」——但「几倍」是多少？「不够十倍」的边界在哪里？这些关键数字完全是定性猜测，无法被任何数据证伪。当一个研究机构的分析结论以「weakly guess」「probably」构成时，它的政策价值和决策参考价值极为有限，却容易被媒体引用为「研究显示」。
Diviners use these vague generalities about the matter in hand because their predictions are thus, as a rule, less likely to be falsified. We are more likely to be right, in the game of "odd and even," if we simply guess "even" or "odd" than if we guess at the actual number; and the oracle-monger is more likely to be right if he simply says that a thing will happen than if he says when it will happen, and therefore he refuses to add a definite date
A premise or argument is meaningless if it is unfalsifiable; ex. It's either going to rain, or it isn't.