the margin of victory would have turned negative, implying that theDemocrats rather than the Republicans would have carried the state

Finally, we analyze the impact of theimmigrant shares (overall, low-skilled, and high-skilled) on individual attitudestoward immigrants. We find, consistently with the above results, that an inflow oflow skilled immigrants in the county increases and an inflow of high skilled immi-grants decreases the anti-immigration position of an individual

Urban areas

An increase of high-skilled immigrants of 1 percent of the adult populationproduces a decline in the Republican vote share by 1.522 percentage points.

Note that significantcorrelations with other contemporaneous variables do not invalidate the instrumentsbut suggest possible economic and demographic variables as channels of the effectof immigration on political preferences.

contemporaneous

reverse causation

The first threat to identifying a causal connection from immigration to votes isthat some counties have persistent economic, cultural, and institutional features thatattract immigrants and also affect citizens’ political preferences

percentage of the population in the 1990–2016 period

estimate the impact of the shareof foreign citizens on election outcomes using variation over time across districts inthe city of Hamburg between 1987 and 2000. The authors find evidence of a positivecorrelation between the population share of immigrants in a district and the share ofvotes received by extreme right-wing parties with a clearly anti-immigration stance.

A scatter plot of the change in the share of Republican votes against the changein the share of immigrants, between the years 1990–1992 and 2014–2016, shows anegative and significant correlation

foreign-born residents with no high-school degree. The high-skilled immigrants Hitare counted as the number of adult foreign-born residents with a high-school degreeor more

Relative to these works, our paper is the first tofocus on US elections including the whole country, using variation across countiesand isolating a causal mechanism by the use of skill-specific shift-share instruments.

t

high-skilled than low-skilled immigrants

A simple explanation is that immigrants to theEuropean countries analyzed above (Italy, Austria, and Germany) are on averageless skilled than immigrants to the United States.

we confirm the negative andsignificant impact of high-skilled immigrants on the vote share to the Republicansand the positive and significant impact of low-skilled immigrants

These effects,

This implies that the vote share of the Republican Party shouldincrease if voting residents perceive immigrants as a net cost rather than a benefit

Political leaders’ positions on the topic of immigration can be an important deter-minant of their electoral success.

By recent estimates, 23.2 million of the people eligible to vote in the 2020 presidentialelection, or one-in-ten eligible voters, were naturalized immigrant citizens – a number that hasmore than doubled since 2000

Here, too, people who arrived from the Soviet Bloc at older ages are more likely to reportsupporting right-wing political parties.

It’s important to remember that the family fixed effect also accounts for much of thepost-migration experience for children, meaning that the primary vehicles for the assimilation ofchildren (e.g. schools, neighborhoods, social milieu) in the US are also fixed once families arrive

relatively close in age

Our results remain unchanged in thisspecification too, represented in Table B.5, suggesting that this is more consistent with exposurethan an “oldest child” effect since it is just as likely to appear in second oldest children relative toyounger siblings.

The fact that the effects we measure are comparable for this group of refugeesto the effects we measure for those who leave when repression is coupled with economic crisissuggests that repression is the dominant mechanism behind the effects we document in this paper

the emergence of an economic crisisthat threatened the welfare of the middle class

The probability plateaus untilthe mid 40s, when the probability of being registered as a Democrat starts rising again. There isno trend for registering as an independent with age of arrival until the beginning of middle-age,when increasing age appears to make non-partisan registration less likely

1.9% increase in the probability of voting in a generalpresidential election.

A and B of Figure 5 present a residualized binned scatter plot of the relationship between age atarrival and voting in 2016 and 2014, respectively

behaviors and preferences of siblings.

yij = α + βArrivalAgeij + θFemaleij + ωij + φj + ηij

family members forall families in our data.

Overall therelationship between age of arrival is positive, with every additional year associated with a 0.18percentage point increase in the probability of voting in 2016

he trend is clearly increasing with agefor newborn arrivals up through early middle-age, flat for middle-aged arrivals through earlyretirement-age, and decreasing with age among those who arrive after 60 or 65.

hose who are civically engaged enough to register

Most children in our data have siblings who are 10 years orfewer apart from them.

likely to express skepticism of democracy oropenness to other forms of government

this population as right-wing prior to migration.

ven when thoseparties are anti-immigrant (

is affective more than itis ideological.

but it might also motivate survivors toparticipate more post-migration to fulfill pent up demand for political voice, cast votes againstparties similar to oppresive ones in their birth countries, or a number of other possible psycho-logical mechanisms beyond the scope of this study

The extant literature suggests a “back-lash effect” for victims who remain in affected areas; victims are more hostile to the perpetratingregime and persistently less likely to express loyalty unless the regime can credibly threaten themagain

will have been a survivor ofsome form of political repression.

. Ironically, the liberalization of free expressionrules under Gorbachev’s Perestroika heralded an increase in public anti-semitic demonstrations(Gitelman, 1991), all prompting subsequent waves of emigration out of the Soviet Union thatwould continue after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991

children are not typically responsible for migrationdecisions

Moreover, we also establish similar patternswithin the same refugee population in a different national context (Israel) using data from a largemulti-election survey

more likely to participatein presidential and midterm elections and to register as Republicans in the US. Our findings holdwithin our simplest within-family design,

political consequences

Public trust, turnout, andother measures of political participation t

which we attribute to backlash against commu-nism.

God he created them;cmale and female he created them

AndGod saw that it was good.

And God said,

Lord d God

while a wind from God bswept over the face of the waters.

ToEnoch was born Irad; and Irad was the fatherof Mehujael, and Mehujael the father ofMethushael, and Methushael the father ofLamech.

Enoch

the tree was to be desired to make one wise,she took of its fruit and ate;

our

God saw that it was good

Whether partycoalitions can again be disrupted depends on shifting party dynamics insome fundamental way, by some future partisan coalition- builders, in waysthat we cannot foresee.

dominated by Southerners, and the partywas facing pressures to pursue the policies of cultural conservatives” costingthe GOP support elsewhere as “the Northeast wing was not receptive to thisemphasis”

Party leaders and their strategic efforts built partisan coalitions in NewEngland during changing circumstances, often by trying to attract particulardemographic groups through outreach, party organization, and issue appeals

Similar shifts took place in regard to congressional representation, too.

Since Reagan, the Republican Party has become even more wed to far-right messages and has moved in an anti- government, even anti-democraticdirection, which swept in conspiracy theorists, while undermining governance(Fried and Harris 2020, 2021). Partisan polarization is increasingly racializedand asymmetric, with Republicans more extreme than Democrats (Mannand Ornstein 2012; Tesler 2016).

New England, bycontrast, continued its tradition of electing mostly moderate Republicanswho were pro-choice, comparatively feminist and, particularly in comingdecades, pro-LGBTQ+ rights.

assiduously

As this chapter noted at the start, the Democratic Party’s embrace of civilrights in the latter decades of the twentieth century is key to understandingparty transformation in New England.

Muskie and Reagan: Post-FDR Coalition-Buildersand New England Politics

the famed Austin-Boston alliance in the HouseDemocratic leadership was born

recalcitrant

the South alone couldnot yield victory.

Franklin Roosevelt’s highly successful NewDeal coalition was to graft more liberal elements— mainly ethnic and urbanliberals— onto the party’s traditional Southern base

Perhaps it was the Democrats’ confirmed status as a nationalminority that made them more risk acceptant by 1928 when they nominateda Tammany Hall- affiliated northerner

New England’ssupport for the GOP was mostly uniform due to the lingering resentmentsof the Civil War and to Republicans’ continuing support of nationalizing,coordinative efforts as they related to commerce.

based in the South, were,among other things, committed to states’ rights and slavery protections.When late Jacksonian era Democrats,

elite

preeminence

least Democratic

New England’s swing in party supporthas been at least as dramatic as what occurred in the former confederacy.

This Republican Party of Lincolnhas become a party of theocracy . . .

Vulgate

This methodology is called “textual criticism” because itis a way of assessing a text through critical comparisonof its different copies.

n response to this critique of their canonical status,the Roman Catholic Counter-Reformation position wasto declare these works definitively a part of the Bible.The Catholic church to this day maintains the canoni-cal status of Tobit, Judith, the longer version of Esther,1 and 2 Maccabees, the Wisdom of Solomon, Sirach,Baruch (including the Le*er of Jeremiah), and the Addi-tions to Daniel. The Orthodox churches also maintainedthe canonical status of these works, and in addition re-garded some or all of the following books as canonical:1 Esdras, the Prayer of Manasseh, Psalm 151, 3 Maccabees,2 Esdras, and (in an appendix) 4 Maccabees. The NRSVincludes headings within the Apocryphal/Deuteroca-nonical Books calling a*ention to the varying canonicalstatus of these works.

Luther wanted these texts to be available for readingand meditation, but he did not regard them as scripture

continued to cite the Greek Bible, though argu-ing for the superiority of the Hebrew text and canon.

This is, fundamental-ly, a typical ancient Near Eastern process: Instead of cre-ating a small, highly consistent text, as we perhaps mightnow do, those responsible for the process included manyof the viewpoints in ancient Israel, incorporating differ-ing and even contradictory traditions into this single, andsingular, book—the Hebrew Bible

Canonization is fundamentally a process of selection,but we cannot reconstruct why particular texts were can-onized while others were not

Instead

During this period of bipartisan attempts, from 2006 to 2008, deportation of unauthorizedimmigrants increased by 27%, while border apprehensions simultaneously fell by 35%.17

new securitization ofimmigration

socially

the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, and this policy hasremained prominent in immigration enforcement well into the 21st century by allowing local lawenforcement officials to be trained to carry out parts of the detention and deportation processesusually executed by then Immigration and Naturalization Services (INS) and now Immigrationand Customs Enforcement (ICE).

simultaneously provided a path to citizenship for nearly 2.7 millionunauthorized migrants (two million of whom were Mexican),

‘Yes, but Iwant to work and contribute to the U.S. I don’t want to always take handouts and be aburden in the U.S.

We left Syria when she was in 6th grade.That was the last time she had any schooling. And then the next time she was in school againwas in NJ. She was placed in 10th grade because she was 16 years old. She was very confusedand struggled in school. She eventually dropped out of H.S.

but generally most refugee families are scattered throughout thecity and physically isolated from each other.

imitations of resettlement agency and urban education

which connects Chinatown to downtown San Francisco

significant demographic shifts

To measure political integration,

A cohesive elite structure is marked by consensus reached by decision-makers acrossall sectors on the agenda and the approach for Chinatown development

What explains the diverse trajectories ofChinatown development

Participants showed that CBPinconsistently screened or accounted for fear of return,trafficking, or age.

Policy Violations

Approximately 51percent reported that CBP did not explain the documentsthey signed (e.g., Form I-770) prior to their repatriationto Mexico, and nearly half reported not knowing whatforms they signed. Fourteen percent reported feelingforced or pressured to sign documents

CBP officials did nottreat them with respect or none did

Overall, the results demonstratethat CBP does not comply with the major policies articu-lated in the Flores Settlement, its internal guidelines, orthe TVPRA, as per the detention, screening, or repatria-tion of Mexican UAC.

Mexican UAC differently from UAC from noncontig-uous states

The federal government generally cannotdetain children for more than 20 days

economicopportunity, and to escape severe violence (UNHCR2014a).

. As nongovernmental organizations and human rights groups have documented, however, CBP hasrepeatedly violated these legal standards and policies, and subjected UAC to abuses and rights violations

351

64 percent AZ; 77 percent NM)

86 percent said that being American is very important to them (85 percent in AZ; 87 percentin NM),

As noted earlier, Arizona also mandates that English be used by stateemployees and limits the use of bilingual education schools.

What are the attitudinal effects of living in a more welcoming orunwelcoming subnational locale?

Other research shows thatminorities regard their ethnoracial and national identities as more compatible when they perceivethat the host community values their group

n spite of high levels of integration, continuesto navigate contexts in which politics and policies frame Latino ethnicity as “illegal” and fo

reflect trends in a “new federalism” of immi-gration policy playing out across the United States

are transferred to DHS and restructured to become three new agencies: USCustoms and Border Protection (CBP), US Immigration and Customs Enforcement(ICE), and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)

1996

hus terminating the discretion of sentencing judgesto grant relief from deportation for criminal offenders.

Under these programs, roughly 2.7million people who were then illegally residing in the United States eventually become lawfulpermanent residents.

he law defines a “refugee” as any personoutside the person’s country of nationality who is unable or unwilling to return tothat country because of persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution on accountof race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or particularopinion.

The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act (known as the Hart-Cellar Act) (79Stat. 911) abolishes the national-origins quota system and replaces it with a systemwhereby immigrants are admitted based on their relationship to a US citizen orlawful permanent resident family member or US employer. While caps are placedon the total number of immigrants who may be admitted each year in most family-based and employer-based categories, the law provides that there will be no cap onthe number of “immediate relatives” (spouses, parents, and minor children) of UScitizens admitted each year. Like immediate relatives, immigrants from the WesternHemisphere countries are also exempted from the law’s system of “preferencecategories” for those who are admitted. However, the law provides that beginning in1968, there will be a cap of 120,000 on the total number of permanent residents whomay be admitted from the Western Hemisphere.

by Nazi persecution to immigrate to the United States.The law also states that up to 15,000 individuals residing in the United States as ofApril 1, 1948 who meet the displaced person definition may adjust their status andbecome lawful permanent residents. President Truman signs the law “with very greatreluctance,” expressing concerns that the law’s requirements will exclude many Jewishrefugees

Students,nationals of Western Hemisphere countries, members of certain professions, and thewives and minor children of US citizens are exempted from the quotas.

nationals of Western Hemisphere countries are excluded from the quotas.

ough the law exempts students, as wellas certain professionals (e.g. teachers, government officers, lawyers, physicians, andchemists), and their wives and children.

and sentenced to one year of hardlabor

ee white persons

with a dignied face and an erect spine, then return to Germany and kill herselfwithout further words or fanfare

. You hear it all the time but that doesn’t mean it makessense. Whiskey is supposed to be bracing but what it is is awful. I want either teaor beer, no whiskey. Mary nods again and heads into the kitchen

My beloved second elder sister, I take my eternalleave of you

It’s November 1, 1991, the last day of the rst part of my life.

One by one. Behind black-rimmed glasses, he counts with his eyes. Ineach case the verdict is clear: not enough

. An hour later I go back andthe office is empty. When I erase the blackboard nally, I can see where she laidher hands carefully, where the numbers are ghostly and blurred

The mean landlady has evicted them

Caroline is cryingwhen she leaves, a combination of squirrel adrenaline and sadness

He wants me to reassure him that he’s strong enough to leave me

You have control over this,” he explains in his professor voice. “You can decidehow long she suffers

great dog

. “I have to talk to youright now,” he says grimly. “Where are you? I can never nd you.”“Try calling your own house,” I say to the machine. In his second message he hascomposed himself.“I’m ne now,” he says rmly. “Disregard previous message and don’t call me back,please; I have meetings.” Click, dial tone, rewind

This is an affront to the two younger dogs, who knowthe couch belongs to them; as soon as I settle in they creep up and nd theirplaces between my knees and elbows

Or that the dog at the bottom of the stairs keeps having mild strokes, which causeher to tilt her head inquisitively and also to fall over. She drinks prodigiousamounts of water and pees great volumes onto the folded blankets where shesleeps

he’s reduced himself to a troubled voice on the telephonethree or four times a day

Guys whose own lives are ticking like alarm clocks getting ready to go off,although none of us are aware of it yet

ake up. She’s staring at me with her head slightly tippedto the side, long nose, gazing eyes, toenails clenched to get a purchase on thewood oor. We used to call her the face of love.

deep-seated wound in yourself, a wound you are trying to heal using these children.

While I see much to admire

It’s simply time foryou to move on.

It’s not yourfault, but you may choose to take this misfortune as a sign of God’s displeasureand torture yourself with guilt and self-loathing for many years to come.

Ira and Isabelle

Dear Potential Mom,

We regret to inform you that it will be quite a while before you grow up,and it will take some cataclysmic events in your life before you really begi

We understand why you took refuge in themusic of the Grateful Dead, dancing until you felt yourself leave your body,caught up in their brand of enlightenment.

After all, who knew that the semester you decidedto come to uc Berkeley would be so tumultuous. That unsavory business withJim Jones and his Bay Area followers left us all reeling.

“grown into” your body yet. We wish you the best of luck infinding your niche elsewhere

Thank you for your application to be the girlfriend of one of our star basketballplayers.

We regret to inform you that no suitable match has been found to accompanyyou to the school dance.

Action on climate change requires trust in science, government and generalized socialtrust

They conclude that nationalismdepresses support for immigration, national policies to mitigate climate change, andinternational cooperation to that end

or to believe thatthey will suffer, both from climate mitigation policies that raise prices or reduce jobsin the carbon industries and from competition or threat from new immigrants

Research on how to scale up mental health resources to meet theneeds of sudden large numbers of disaster migrants is needed

society’sabsorption capacities

here is reason to believe that previous regular,measured and successful immigration paves the way for successful integration of refugeesand other immigrants who arrive suddenly and in greater numbers

this was driven primarilyby people in areas where the immigrants were not settling.

minorities and became less supportive of anti-immigration parties compared to individ-uals living farther away

be concentrated in order to maximize social network ties and co-ethnicsupport, creating an ethnic enclave, or dispersed in order to avoid overburdening receiv-ing communities, and providing more opportunities for immigrants and natives to inter-act?

here is a risk of native backlash againstthem.

5000 people relocated to Buffalo.Some went back, but many stayed. In the 2020 US Census Buffalo showed its first popu-lation increase in 70 years (National Academy of Sciences, Medicine and Engineering2024).

By leveraging what we know about migrants –that they send economic remittances in amounts that dwarf international economicaid, and that they create welcoming communities that ease the integration and furtherthe success of countrymen who follow, the use of visas for strategic migrants can benefi-cially shape future migration and help sending communities hit hardest by climatechange

Providing anumber of visas to countries that are experiencing severe climate change will seedfuture migration through social networks and support those unable to move who needto adapt in place through remittances.

Instead, they would just provide a path to perma-nent migration for a stream of migrants from the sending country, whether or not theindividual migrants report that they are experiencing adverse effects of climate change.

One avenue forward is that visas could be issued for countriesfacing all three types of migration – disaster, strategic, and managed retreat

how would strategic migrants establish that itis climate that caused them to move?

A new legal and bureaucratic category of a climate migrant would be very difficult, ifnot impossible to administer.

One ques-tion is whether we need a new legal category of migrant (Williams 2008).

trapped populations, people who cannot or will not move, butwhose adaptation in place will increasingly fail

ea level rise and destruc-tion of ecosystems and livelihoods will cause two types of migration: strategic migrationand managed retreat. Strategic migration is a choice made by individuals. It can beeconomically motivated or specifically because of a perception that staying in placewill be impossible or costly because of climate change (Castro 2023). Managed retreatis the organized movement of communities away from hazards. It will become inevitablein some places, like low lying island nations and other places that become uninhabitable,yet it is highly undesirable and often fiercely resisted

Thisproduces disaster migration. It is unplanned and rapid.

People generally move to places where they know people, where family orfriends have already settled

involving ‘conflict, disease, pol-itical change and economic crises’ (Kemp et al. 2022, 6). Should such large scale societaldisruptions occur, migration would surely follow

Estimating the volume of climate migration produces highly varied estimates. Ques-tions about how much the climate will warm, whether the effects will be linear or includetipping points that drastically change climate and cause sea level rise, the role of climatechange as a threat multiplier leading to conflict and government collapse, and the ways inwhich countries will adapt to rising numbers of potential migrants by closing or openingborders are all implicated in these estimates.

coping with the long-term integration of climate migrantsin the decades to come

argue that while climate migration will pose many chal-lenges, it also can be framed positively, and we can use what we know from migrationscholarship to craft policies and to further research that will lead to better outcomesfor both migrants and receiving communities

successful integration of largenumbers of migrants fleeing climate change should be a toppriority not least because this success will help to preserve thesocial trust that is necessary for successful climate mitigationefforts

is for richcountries to allocate extra visas to poorer countries that aresuffering the effects of climate migration, partly as reparations forclimate injustice.

Furthermore, TPS beneficiaries must reside and be physically present in the United States at the time ofa TPS designation to access protection

TPSis a blanket form of humanitarian relief which allows qualifying nationals of designated countries toremain in the United States and obtain work authorization.

facepersecution because of a lack of effective state protection

provide access to a durablestatus, work authorization, and naturalization;

While the asylum and refugeeprotection systems offer protection to some individuals impacted by climate change who have alsosuffered other persecution, there are no formal protection pathways for climate-displaced people underU.S. law. Temporary designations, such as humanitarian parole, do not offer a systemic response toprovide lasting protections to those displaced by climate change

Jozef said that after HBA replaced the tents destroyed by theJanuary 2023 bomb cyclone, additional rain storms in late February 2023 destroyed the new tents

migrants to cross dangerous terrain by foot, making them vulnerable to the adverseeffects of climate change along the journey to the United States-Mexico border

will further endanger asylumseekers and refugees, including those displaced in the context of climate change, by making themineligible for protection based solely on their manner of entry.

ransit through the country to reach the U.S.border,

asylum in 2015 after the government illegally appropriated their tribal lands,leaving them vulnerable to homelessness and gang violence