civillibertiesandcivilrights

New Deal liberalism with their support of civil rightsand voting rights measures during their respective terms in office,

the1946midtermelectionsreturnedRepublicancontroltobothhousesofCongressforthefirsttimesince 1930.

Midwest in twenty-sevenof thirty-one presidential

Indiana appears far gone for Demo-crats, but it has been right of center for a very long time; Illinois, a one-time swing state, now seems likely to stay Democratic for the foreseeablefuture.

but the trends inside these states are not all favorable to the GOP,although some of those changes are, and many of those trends emergedbefore Trump (although his candidacy, and Clinton’s, exacerbated thosechanges)

he Democratic nomineewon no Minnesota counties west of the Twin Cities. And yet, Clinton stillcarried the state.

but white voters without a four-year college de-gree were embracing it (or, at the very least, recoiling from Clinton)

stiff former managementconsultant

all provided Demo-cratic landslides and had roughly the same presidential deviations as theyhad four years prior

downstate Democratic decline.

all seven states discussed in this chapter, becoming only thethird Democrat to accomplish that feat: Franklin Roosevelt (1932, 1936)and Lyndon Johnson (1964) also did

Illinois senator Barack Obama waswell-positioned to reclaim the White House in what was a classic chang-ing of the guard–style election.

A “wall” constructed on such shaky foundations isn’t much of a wallat all.

Still, while the so-called blue wall held up for Democrats in much ofthe Midwest, the red tide in 2000 came fairly close to breaching the wallin several places

collar counties

but the trade-off between incremental improvement in one county and a falloff every-where else caused the Democratic deficit in the state to balloon

Similar shifts happened in other parts of the Midwest. In Michigan’sFirst Congressional District, which covered the Upper Peninsula andnorthern Michigan, a Clinton margin of seven points in 1996 turned intoa ten-point Bush win. In northwest Wisconsin’s Seventh District, Gorewon by two, down from Clinton’s fourteen.

This came at a time whenvoter choice was aligning on support or opposition to abortion rights,with the former increasingly becoming Democratic and the latter increas-ingly becoming Republican.

transplanted Yankee parents

a party that over time would do increasingly wellnot just in cities but also in suburbs, while falling off in some rural areas,small cities, and other places.

com-munity

imprimatur

run as a moderate

Bush beat Massachusetts governor MichaelDukakis by eight points. And yet some of the countervailing trends in theMidwest that emerged against Reagan in 1984 became more apparent in1988

Reagan Democrat

and Ohio swung against Carter,each giving Reagan double-digit margins

But even in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the Carter-Mondale ticket’s decline was obvious

Carter, like Kennedy in 1960 and Roosevelt in 1944,won the election despite losing a majority of these Midwest states

This would be the last time that Illinois had a Republi-can-leaning presidential deviation.

southern

Jimmy Carter did something thatDemocrats routinely did before him but have not done since: he nearlyswept the South

It was around this time that big midwestern industrial/urbancounties such as Cook (Chicago), Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Milwaukee, andWayne (Detroit) began to consistently vote much more Democratic thanthe nation as a whole

were collectively likelier to voteRepublican than not

Presidential Deviation in the Midwest,

Illinois

The Midwest was crucial to both

nationalism

esident Donald Trump will write somethingsimilar, but unlike Fallows’s description, it will be hard to take such anobservation seriously.

That trend could help explain what has been to datean asymmetry in polarization, where congressional Republicans have moved right fasterthan liberals have moved left

The set of people who turn out to vote in Republican primaries are now moreconservative than before, and the set of people who turn out to vote in Democratic pri-maries are more liberal.

As theDemocratic and Republican parties became more homogenous, they sent clearer signals tovoters in the rest of the country.

conservatives in the non-South sorted more thoroughlyinto the Republican Party

mirroring thedivergence starting in the South a decade earlier.

Polarization

Fig. 6

Sorting only

Until 1978, conservatives were more likelyto vote in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries

0.0

towards the conservative sid

looks very similar to the pattern of polarization in Congress.

This figure establishes that the distribution of ideology in the public asa whole has not become more polarized over this segment of time.

tion of one kind or the other in 12 surveys from 1958 to 2012.

This pattern is consistent withour argument that increasingly relevant Republican primary elections changed the brandsof the parties in the South.

which supports the notion that participation in theseRepublican primaries had a lasting effect on individual Southern voter behavior

his prompted segregationistSenator Strom Thurmond to switch from Democrat to Republican, and coincided withRepublican Barry Goldwater’s presidential bid in 1964 on a platform that opposed federalintervention in civil rights.

Voters with extreme views are more likely to participate inprimaries today, and primaries today are more ideologically homogenous than in the past.

primaries across the country

when the Democratic primary electorateshifted to the left as conservatives became Republicans in greater numbers

This is consistent with recentresearch showing that primaries with more open rules of participation do not have moremoderate primary electorate

which drew the most conservative voters into newly relevant SouthernRepublican primaries and left behind a less conservative Southern Democratic primaryelectorate.

eterogeneous congres-sional parties to the present era of more homogeneous parties.

polarization partially stems from polarized pri-mary electorates nominating more polarized candidates for office

The Democratic party prohibited Negroes from participating in its pri-mary

They sought to do this by purging theparty of Negro influence and a Negro share in the spoils of victory and byattracting the new South's businessmen.

they have a disproportionate influence in national politics.

still regarded as a threat of "black domination."

Practicallynone voted in the primary.

Politics isdecentralized.

But Southern liberalism has generally not reached even this preliminarystage of organization.

the future of Southernliberalism might become great.

It gets its power from outsidethe South.

Negroes are votingin some places in the South, and white people are tolerating it. In the newannual A.A.A. elections for the crop restriction program they are evenvoting right in the cotton counties of the Black Belt in perhaps even greaterproportion than whites.

The South is also strongly religious.

woman suffrage andeconomic equality, collective bargaining, labor legislation, progressiveeducation, child welfare, civil service reform, police and court reform,prison refor

mainly to the efforts of the federal government.The Southern masses do not generally organize either for advancing theirideals or for protecting their group interests.

which compels thewhite man to disenfranchise himself in order to take the vote away from the Negro

he fear is that this vast swarm of ignorant, purchasableand credulous voters will be compacted and controlled by desperate and unscrupulouswhite men, and made to hold the balance of power wherever the whites are divided.This fear has kept, and will keep, the whites "solid." It would keep the intelligenceand responsibility of any community, North or South, solid.

ut rarely ever for issues, unlessthe issue is defined in black and white."5

Panel Aalso shows that farm value was not affected by tax policy. Overall, thereis little evidence that tax policy broke up farms or lowered farm value

exactly the opposite effect of thetax policies advocated by black politicians.

$0.96 in 1870 to $0.98 in1880, while for counties with black politicians, revenue went from $1.56in 1870 to $0.89 in 1880.

–0.0129*** –0.0629***

0.197

manumission

This is the first quantitative evidence suggesting a strong effect of blackpolitical leadership on local public finance.

0.0993*** 0.0993*** 0.0986*** 0.0925**

far above estimates of literacy for the black population as a whole.

1,893.83

he existing scholarship about the known black politicianswas often incorrect and narratives about the illiteracy and poverty of theblack politicians was repeated in the historical narrative until the archivalwork in Foner (1996) and other histories were compiled. Indeed, thehistories of Reconstruction that noted black officials often did so deri-sively.

20 percent and expendi-tures per pupil declined by 60 percent from 1871 to 1880.

notes that while some white officials sought to drasti-cally reduce all education expenditures after Redemption, the popularityof public schooling among whites led to fewer reductions in educationalexpenditures for whites

Southern whites began a widespreadcampaign to undo the Congressional Reconstruction process

In Alabama, a property tax was proposed; inTexas, the sale of public lands was offered; in Maryland, changes to thestate tax code to allow local taxation were put forth; in South Carolina,Murray suggested that unclaimed Civil War bounties could be used; andNorth Carolina debated a specific consumer tax for education. GovernorHarrison Reed’s plan in Florida was to increase land assessments to fundpublic goods, and this model was followed in other Southern states byblack political leaders

Southerners of both races noted that the low taxes in the antebellumera encouraged the acquisition of unimproved land by wealthy land-owners

The results here show that black political leadershipis an important and omitted factor in black socioeconomic outcomes afterthe Civil War.

public education and land redis-tribution

Put another way, the tax effects of black poli-cymakers left no lasting effects on local public finance.

0.62 standard deviations

$0.09 increase in per capita county taxrevenue.

In particular,did their time in service have any effects on local public finance, publicgoods provision, land reform, and socioeconomic outcomes?

You never saw a people more excited on the subject of politics than are thenegroes of the South. They are perfectly wild

By pri-vatizing carceral functions, Southern states were able to furtherscale incarceration, in particular of freedpeople, at essentiallyzero cost.

The work of reformation must be begun and prosecuted with the coloredmasses outside of the Penitentiary. The only difference existing betweenthe colored convicts and the colored people at large consists in the factthat the former have been caught in the commission of crime, tried andconvicted, while the latter have not. The same results would happen tothe latter should the same opportunities for criminal action and criminalconviction occur. The entire race is destitute of pride of character.

While the investigationuncovered widespread mistreatment and neglect of convicts, itproved difficult to end the contract altogether—in no small partbecause some of the main stakeholders in the leasing companieswere also current and former Bourbon politicians.

it became difficult for the state torenegotiate—let alone terminate—leases before they eventuallyexpired in 1896.

redi-rect institutions or policies toward purposes beyond their originalintent.

the legislators were more con-cerned with taking steps to reduce expenditures for incarcerationeven further.

Interestingly, of the twenty-five blackstate legislators in Louisiana, all but one voted in favor of theact.

The seemingly bipartisan support of the lease system inGeorgia, or at least the lack of partisan opposition to it, mirroredthe experience in other Southern states during CongressionalReconstruction

his will increase the debt of the State that amount.... It seems tous a propitious time to revise our Penal Code, and abolish the penitentiarysystem—adopting in lieu thereof the principles embodied in the Codes ofSouth and North Carolina [corporal and capital punishment].

Importantly, however, this surge in prisoner popula-tions after the Civil War preceded—not followed—theintroduction of convict leasing.

First, they wereused to restrict African American labor market mobility.Land-owning whites in particular saw their wealth and fortunedwindle with Emancipation

The resultis, that we have more than three times as many convicts in the State prisonas there were before the war.

less

First,antebellum Georgia was extremely wealthy and, by extension, fis-cally healthy.

Precisely because Southern whites were committed to upholdwhite supremacy and dwarf notions of equality, governmentsremained reluctant to expand taxation capacity and, thus,remained cash-strapped and burdened by debt throughoutmuch of second half of the nineteenth century.

Southern prisonpopulations would likely not have outgrown the existing prisoninfrastructure as fast as they did—a development that forced statesto look for alternatives to penitentiary imprisonment in the firstplace.

leasing outconvicts appeared to be a cost-effective short-term alternative tothe more resource-intensive penitentiary model.

he South cohered as a low-wage, undereducated, and underdeveloped sec-tion in part because the commitments of its representatives to racial hier-archy and regional autonomy dramatically limited their ability to securefederal support on terms they could accept or to block fiscal policiesthat disproportionately burdened the South.

that leasing initiallyseemed to be a response to growing prisoner numbers but overtime became a driving force of incarceration in the postbellumSouth.

were predomi-nantly employed in emerging industries of the New South, grad-ing railroad beds or laboring in mining camps and lumberproduction.

ystem of sharecrop-ping contracts and debt peonage

especially in the South wherebureaucratic and fiscal capacities remained limited

Consequently, illness and diseases resulting from poor hygieneand malnutrition were rampant. In many states, the penitentiaryphysicians reported regular outbreaks of dysentery and typhoidfever. A large share of prisoners ended up in the hospital wardsat some point or another, especially as leasing camps becamemore and more crowded.

Prisoners no longer worked withinprison walls, and while contracts with lessees typically specifiedthe type of labor convicts were expected to perform, the statehad very little control over working conditions in the camps.

he state also gave up its custodial responsibility as lesseeswere to hire overseers and guards to ensure order in the campsand prevent prison escapes

First, by leasing prisoners to private com-panies or individuals, the state was absolved of the task of housingand caring for them.

What is more, the penitentiary movement introduced penallabor in addition to carceral confinement as reformers consideredhard labor within prison walls an opportunity to teach trade skillsand instill Protestant work ethic in prisoners

inade-quate for deterring criminal activity and forming law-abidingcitizens.

In this article, I reflecton how these contracted state and fiscal capacities paradoxicallyconditioned the expansion of state coercive capacities in the post-bellum South

In particular, I argue that, while thepost-Emancipation South saw patterns of incarceration growthquite similar to the post–Civil Rights era, the fiscal conditionsand capacity issues that Southern states faced after the CivilWar led them to introduce carceral “innovations” that were dis-tinct—both from the penitentiaries maintained in Northern statesat the time and from today’s prison institutions.

despite their limited institutional and imple-mentation capacities.

Over time, however, leasinggrew more profitable, in particular for “New South” industrialistswho benefitted from cheap convict labor. Thus, as demand forconvict labor increased post-Reconstruction, the system got fur-ther entrenched—despite its increasingly abusive nature.

on rail-roads and plantations, in coal mines and lumber camps, and atbrickyards all over the South

That these sentences shape voter turnout in the nextelection is quite striking

Incourt systems with only one judge or without randomassignment, we can imagine that small differences in ajudge’s mood or calendar could lead to sentencingvariation that deters voting.

between 100,000 and 156,000 Black Americans stayedhome from the polls in the 2012 election due to jailsentences served during that election cycle

Black voters from the electorate couldlead to different patterns of representation and policyoutcomes

This could be due to differing arrest patterns by race,with Black citizens more likely to face arrest than Whiteones.

It is possible thatindividuals still believe in the value of voting [contraryto the theory of Weaver and Lerman (2014)], but thatthey find it too difficult to vote when they are dealingwith other problems (Verba, Schlozman, and Brady1995).

0.045(0.034)Constant 20.0001 0.142*(0.029) (0.019

he negative coefficient on jail in the firstcolumn suggests that jail could be associated with lowervoter turnout in the next election,

Or, Black defendants sen-tenced to jail could interpret the sentence differently,perceiving the court system’s treatment as more unfairthan a White defendant in similar circumstances

“Stop-and-Frisk”

Black men, especially those withoutcollege education, are disproportionately likely to bearrested, convicted, and incarcerated

misdemeanants have more tolearn about the state from these experiences, and moreto lose in their political participation

Any of these experiencescould also prevent people from voting, consistent withpast work on the participation of people with differentlevels of available resources

“custodial citi-zens come to see participation in political life not only assomething that is unlikely to yield returns, but assomething to be actively avoided.”

describesa mechanism by which people learn to fear and avoidgovernment through criminal justice interactions, andso do not vote

Latino defendants show a decrease in turnout due to jail,and Black defendants’ turnout in the next

heterogeneity

while Black defendants show substantial turnout decreases due to jailtime.

isinippt 503 9South Carolina 468 entAlabama 169 44Georgia

the Negro.

grandoutl1¢sthepoliticsoftheSouthreveiar

heJongHabituationofmanyofitspeopletopoapardimpoliticalHO—alltheseand othersocialcharseiriistothinfluencethenat

ratedthem,mnaylikewisebeT

Democracy functions best when its citizens hold elected officials account-able; are exposed to public discourse representing a wide variety of views,including dissenting ones; and consider alternative viewpoints as legitim-ate and compromise as an option. Religious sorting, both directly andindirectly, has undermined these key components of a healthy democracy

Rather, identities and feelings towardgroups now play an important role in the religious-political sorting story,even if issues helped precipitate the sorting

who is discriminated against and which party willbetter help the aggrieved group – shape their political attachments

owest when answering abouta religious out-group and when group membership and partisanshipmatch. White evangelical Republicans (Democratic non-identifiers) per-ceive the lowest rates of discrimination against atheists (evangelicals)

non-evangelical Republicans seem as attuned tothe plight of their political compatriots, despite not being members of thereligious group, as white evangelical Democrats who are, themselves, mem-bers of the group in question. Non-evangelical Democrats report thatevangelicals face discrimination at the lowest rate: 22 percent.

combined power is even stronger

charged andpersonal struggles where one’s survival (or in this case, soul) is at stake

identity-based mobilization

Non-identifiers, there-fore, do not have descriptive representation in Congress

vangelicals make up 40 percent of Republicans elected toCongress compared to just 5 percent

data toward stronglyidentifying as a Christian and with other Christians

Because the religiosity gap does not extend toAfrican Americans, secular white Americans and highly devout BlackAmericans are now on the same political team.

how it formed

will not tolerate criticism of theirpolitical leaders and views

Social group membership,however, can offer a workaround to this problem by offering shortcuts togroup members.

My own work,however, shows that these same changes in the political environment duringthe latter part of twentieth century encouraged Americans – particularlywhite Americans – to become more or less religious on account of theirpreexisting partisan identities.

dislike and distrust toward one another in order towork toward a common set of social and political goals

particularly during polarized times

Democratic erosion, by whichI mean the intentional undermining of democratic values – includingelectoral accountability, free exchange of ideas, and recognizing the legit-imacy of others’ grievances – threatens America’s democratic resilience, orthe ability to withstand stresses as a nation.

In short, the more religious a personis, the more likely it is that he or she identifies with the Republican Party andsupports Republican candidates

the margin of victory would have turned negative, implying that theDemocrats rather than the Republicans would have carried the state

Finally, we analyze the impact of theimmigrant shares (overall, low-skilled, and high-skilled) on individual attitudestoward immigrants. We find, consistently with the above results, that an inflow oflow skilled immigrants in the county increases and an inflow of high skilled immi-grants decreases the anti-immigration position of an individual

Urban areas

An increase of high-skilled immigrants of 1 percent of the adult populationproduces a decline in the Republican vote share by 1.522 percentage points.

Note that significantcorrelations with other contemporaneous variables do not invalidate the instrumentsbut suggest possible economic and demographic variables as channels of the effectof immigration on political preferences.

contemporaneous

reverse causation

The first threat to identifying a causal connection from immigration to votes isthat some counties have persistent economic, cultural, and institutional features thatattract immigrants and also affect citizens’ political preferences

percentage of the population in the 1990–2016 period