eLife Assessment
This important theoretical study introduces an extension to the commonly used SIR model for infectious disease dynamics, to explicitly consider the role of larger group sizes. Instead of the commonly used individual-based network models, the authors developed a simplified approach based on group sampling, with discrete high- and low-risk groups, which makes the results easier to produce and interpret, at the cost of less detail in the model. The evidence is convincing in terms of the soundness of the theoretical projections and the impact that accounting for group sizes may have on inferences from surveillance data. However, it has not yet been demonstrated that the predictions provide more realistic projections when based on real-world data.