eLife assessment
This paper explores the relationships among evolutionary and epidemiological quantities in influenza, and presents fundamental findings that substantially advance our understanding of the drivers of influenza epidemics. The authors use a rich set of data sources to gather and analyze compelling evidence on the roles of genetic distance, other influenza dynamics and epidemiological indicators in predicting influenza epidemics. The central findings highlight the significant influence of genetic distance on A(H3N2) virus epidemiology and emphasize the role of A(H1N1) virus incidence in shaping A(H3N2) epidemics, suggesting subtype interference as a key factor. This paper also makes relevant data available to the research community.