Evaluation Summary:
This paper describes the use of three well-established mathematical models of cervical cancer to estimate the impact of COVID-19 related-delays in screening access on cervical cancer incidence and delays in diagnosis. Consistent with previous work and the known biology of cervical cancers, the findings that short delays have relatively small effects on population-level cervical cancer risk are reassuring overall, but the impact of screening interval and screening test performance suggest that existing disparities related to screening access may be exacerbated. These results should be useful for policy makers in planning responses to future pandemics or other sources of sudden restriction of screening availability.
(This preprint has been reviewed by eLife. We include the public reviews from the reviewers here; the authors also receive private feedback with suggested changes to the manuscript. Reviewer #1 agreed to share their name with the authors.)