- Nov 2024
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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around the AI is um the problem right now as I understand it
for - progress traps - AI - created by mind level that created all our existing problems - AI is not AI but MI - Mineral Intelligence
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- Oct 2024
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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for - progress traps - measurement
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- Aug 2024
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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while our predicament is eco-logical (“let it live”), our thinking remains techno-logical (“fix it”). The monoculture's fixation on what I call algorithmic rationality (linear, sequential, goal-oriented problem-solving),
for - adjacency - ecology of communication - progress traps - intentionality - language
adjacency - between - ecology of communications - progress traps - intentionally - language - emptiness - adjacency relationship - human intentionally focuses it attention on only a few select aspects of the entire gestalt of any moment of our phenomenological reality - It creates our salience landscape - What we choose to focus on and know more about it always coupled with and complimented by a vast ignorance of what we choose NOT to know - Indeed, the use language itself is the telling of a very specific story - Of all the stories we can tell, - Of the infinite stories we can construct now, -we settle on one - So the use of language already betrays the complexity inherent in each and every one of our ecological moments - We plant the seeds for progress traps as soon as we - manifest an intention - attempt to communicate - Hence, it is not avoidable and the best we can do is - recognize our situation - manage it - It is the relationship between - human nature (perceived as limited) - nature nature (infinite) - What springs to mind if the Zen koan - The elbow does not bend backwards
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The question entails the recognition of unintended consequences of any action informed by the insufficient linear first-order thinking of many wannabe world-improvers
for - progress traps - intentionality - (see previous annotation)
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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the conclusion must of course be, okay, so this is the risk assessment we have. Let's, then we have to apply precaution. Precautionary principle. Exactly. Uncertainty in science, which will always be there, should in my view, always be. connected with a risk assessment.
for - adjacency - precautionary principle - risk assessment - progress traps
adjacency - between - precautionary principle - risk assessment - progress trap - adjacency relationship - Precautionary principle is really stating that we don't have enough knowledge and there can be a high risk - Even if there is low probability of occurrence, we must apply precautionary principle to avoid a progress trap
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- Jul 2024
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journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com
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recommends that ToC construction should be participatory, involving stakeholders who represent different perspectives and roles within the intervention
for - ToC construction - recommendation - should be participatory
comment - Stop Reset Go process using Trailmark mark-in notation within Indyweb people-centered, interpersonal software ecosystem is inherently designed: - to be participatory - to mitigate progress traps - In fact, - the greater the diversity of perspectives, - the greater the efficacy in mitigating progress traps - For this reason, open source is necessary to achieve the optimal transformations of improvement
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book come out last year called over the seaw wall his name is Steven Robert Miller
for - book - Over the Seawall - Steven Robert Miller
book - Over the Seawall - Steven Robert Miller - A book about PROGRESS TRAPS! - How climate adaptation measures can lead to progress traps, such as - lead to a sense of complacency and false security - leading to overdevelopment - leading to even more people vulnerable to climate and extreme weather events
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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the two sort of outstanding examples uh that i can think of are 00:39:39 egypt and china and both of those places have a an unbroken tradition of civilization that lasted something like 3000 years or more
for - progress traps - exceptional civilizations - Egypt and China
progress traps - exceptional civilizations - Egypt and China - While 1,000 years seems to be the norm for the lifetime of an average civilization, China and Egypt have both endured 3 times as long - Egypt had the self-replenishing Nile River with topsoil being washed down from Ethiopia every year to maintain their soil fertility - So they avoided the salinity problem until modern times with the construction of high dams that have had unintended consequences - China also had unusual conditions of exceptionally deep layers of annually replenished topsoil called loess that were formed by being blown in by the wind from surrounding areas
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for - progress traps - interview - Ronald Wright
summary - In this more recent interview, Ronald Wright, author of "A Short History of Progress" and advocate of the idea of "progress traps", offers his cogent take on the world today, as refracted and reflected through an archeological lens - Wright sheds light on the relevance of history and especially archeology on our contemporary polycrisis, illustrating how, while different in details, are very similiar to the same mistakes our ancestors of every age have made - The archeology lessons of Sumeria, Stone age humans, Easter Island and more illustrate that it is dangerous to romanticize our ancestors as their mistakes cost them their civilizations, as much as the current mistakes we are now making may cost ours - I would add that our own Stop Reset Go and Deep Humanity research compliments Wright's superb work on Progress Traps with ideas borrowed from the East - specifically, Shunyata or Emptiness - Complimenting progress traps with Emptiness reveals another dimension of the perennial problem our species face since time immemorial, and in every generation henceforth - Deep Humanity integrates Progress with Emptiness, the individual with the collective, friends with enemies and proposes that we are approaching a singularity in our species, - in which all past civilizations are converging in one heterogenous entity in modernity - and the future of our species will depend on whether we can culturally adapt quickly enough to the multiple existential risks we now face - Our future as a viable evolutionary species may depend on the collective direction we move in in the next few years, of resolving the age-old quagmire of the holographic unnamable present in every one of us born into a living and dying body, continually fractures itself into violently polarized pieces. - Do we have the collective foresight to penetrate our own ignorance?
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easter island
for - progress trap - archeology - Easter Island
progress trap - archeology - Easter Island - The archeology tells the fascinating story of the progress trap that Eastern Island ancestors created. - Easter Island is desolate and only 64 square miles total - It is located 2,000 miles (3218 km) from the nearest landmass of South America - Archeologists trying to piece together the stone monoliths of Easter Island found pollen samples in the crater lakes on the island, proving that the place was once a thriving forest - By the time the first Europeans landed (the Dutch) on Easter Island, it was just grassy hills - How did it go from a lush forest land to a grass land? - The layers of pollen samples told a story - The aboriginal polynesians that the Dutch explorers encountered arrived about 1,000 years earlier - They cut down the forest, grew their population and used trees in many ways, including to transport the huge stone monoliths that paid respect to their ancestors - The original people multiplied then separated into separate warring tribes - The environment was devastated as the logging destroyed the forest and all the abundant ecosystem that provided for their sustenance - This created severe erosion and the soil became impoverished - The tribes collapses into warfare and cannibalism
progress trap - Easter Island - Sumeria etc - lesson - don't romanticize our ancestors - Human groups have continuously sabotaged themselves through overexploitation and lack of foresight - Progress traps have been a constant part of our species for a long, long time
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- Jun 2024
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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to your point for 00:13:46 every problem there's going to be a solution and AI is going to have it and then for every solution for that there's going to be a new problem
for - AI - progress trap - nice simple explanation of how progress traps propagate
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I think one of the things that you're describing is what it looks 00:44:00 like to try to do something without breaking something else
for - progress traps - Nora Bateson - response to interviewer's comment on everyday example of complexity - parent encouraging children to go to school - example of mitigating progress traps - complexity is hard!
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this is where we get into trouble is trying to solve problems in isolated ways
for - quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap
quote - Nora Bateson - progress trap - (see below)
- This is where we get into trouble
- trying to solve problems in isolated ways
- This is where we get into trouble
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- Apr 2024
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blog.homeforfiction.com blog.homeforfiction.com
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from - Prometheus and modernity -https://hyp.is/HUI6WAUsEe-r97ezRaj6bg/bigthink.com/thinking/dan-carlin-on-humanitys-uncontrollable-prometheus-complex/
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- Mar 2024
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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Planting trees, often championed as a solution to combat climate change, may have unintended consequences
for - progress traps - tree planting - climate change
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- Aug 2023
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www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
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with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all!
-for: quote, quote - Jennifer Jarratt, quote - progress trap, progress trap, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, quote - unintended consequences, cultural evolution, technology - futures, futures - technology, progress trap - quote: with new technologies come new crimes and criminals – opportunities for all! - author: Jennifer Jarratt - co-principal of Leading Futurists LLC
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Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
- for: progress traps, progress, unintended consequences, technology - unintended consequences, unintended consequences - technology, unintended consequences - digital technology, progress trap - quotations, quote, quote - progress trap
- title: Experts Predict More Digital Innovation by 2030 Aimed at Enhancing Democracy
- authors: emily A Vogels, Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson
- year: June 30, 2020
- description: a good source of quotations on progress traps / unintended consequences of digital technology from this Pew Research 2020 report on the future of the digital technology and democracy.
- the Pew Research Center interviewed a lot of experts in the field
- in particular, section 5 of the report entitled
- "Tech causes more problems than it can solve" is quite salient for the topic of progress traps
- The Indyweb actually addresses many of these problems:
Tags
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Annotators
URL
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www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
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- for: progress trap, unintended consequences, Indyweb - justifiication
- description
- a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
- in other words, progress traps
- a great source of quotations by thought leaders on the unintended consequences of technology,
- comment
- also a lot of rich material to justify the Indyweb's design ethos
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- Mar 2023
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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we propose five cornerstones that help deal with the highlighted issues and categorize unintended consequences.
5 principles for mitigating progress traps - 1) - a priori assessments of potential unintended consequences of policies - should be conducted by - multidisciplinary teams - with as broad a range of expertise as possible. - This would require decision-making - to flex around specific policy challenges - to ensure that decision-makers reflect the problem space in question. - 2) - policy plans made in light of the assessment should be iterative, - with scheduled re-assessments in the future. - As has been discussed above, - knowledge and circumstances change. - New consequences might have since - become manifest or new knowledge developed. - By planning and implementing reviews, - organizational reflexivity and - humility - needs to be built into decision-making systems (e.g., Treasury, 2020).
- 3)
- given the scale of systems
- such as the water-energy-food nexus
- and the potential for infinite variety and nuance of unintended consequences,
- pragmatism necessitates specification of boundaries
- within which assessments are made.
- pragmatism necessitates specification of boundaries
- It should be noted that this can in itself give rise to unintended consequences
- through potential omission of relevant areas.
- Hence, boundary decisions regarding
- where the boundaries lie
- should be regularly revisited (as per 2) above.
- where the boundaries lie
- given the scale of systems
- 4)
- unintended consequences identified
- should be placed in the framework
- with as much consensus among decision-makers as possible.
- should be placed in the framework
- The positioning does not need to be limited to a single point,
- but could be of the form of a distribution of opinions of range
- of knowability and
- avoidability;
- the distribution will be indicative of
- the perspectives and
- opinions of the stakeholders.
- but could be of the form of a distribution of opinions of range
- If a lack of consensus exists on the exact position,
- this can highlight a need to
- seek more diverse expertise, or
- for further research in order to improve consensus, or
- for fragmenting of the issue into
- smaller,
- more readily assessable pieces.
- this can highlight a need to
- unintended consequences identified
- 5)
- there is a need for more active learning
- by decision-makers
- about how to avoid repeating past unintended consequences.
- by decision-makers
- To support this,
- assessment process and
- outcomes should be
- documented and
- used
- to appraise the effectiveness of policy mechanisms,
- with specific attention on outcomes
- beyond those defined by policy objectives and the
- assumptions and
- decisions
- which led to these outcomes.
- beyond those defined by policy objectives and the
- with specific attention on outcomes
- Such appraisals could reflect on
- the scope of the assessment, and
- the effectiveness of specific groups of stakeholders
- in being able to identify potential negative outcomes,
- highlighting gaps in knowledge and limitations in the overall approach.
- in being able to identify potential negative outcomes,
- Additional records of the level of agreement of participants
- would allow for re-evaluation with new learning.
- there is a need for more active learning
- 3)
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Figure 2. Transitions of climate change throughout time.
// - This is a good basic framing - for future basic research - on progress traps - Future paper would explore details in a much more granular way //
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- Jan 2023
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humansandnature.org humansandnature.org
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Symbiocene
!- symbiocene :key attribute - understanding the dangers of cultural evolution to the degree that we can mitigate the dangers emergent from progress traps
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- Sep 2022
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royalsocietypublishing.org royalsocietypublishing.org
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It follows, then, that humans are experiencing an evolutionary transition in individuality from single human to cultural group because culture is replacing genes as the primary human inheritance system, and cultural adaptations are heavily group structured.
!- Question : culture-driven human inheritance - How do progress traps fit into this, as opposed to genetic-driven inheritance?
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- Jul 2022
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www.thegreatsimplification.com www.thegreatsimplification.com
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36:10 - Waste from electric cars
We have to mitigate progress traps
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- Jun 2022
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besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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(a) What are the key levers and leverage points in social systems that might drive transformative change towards sustainability? (b) How are these derived from and perceived within and across academic literatures and in practice? (c) How might the levers and leverage points work together?
Key questions are asked and the nexus approach of looking at the entire gestalt, consisting of many moving parts and their feedbacks is critical for avoiding and mitigating unintended consequences, also known as progress traps.
Bringing this to a global public space to create engagement is critical to create a groundswell. The public must understand that leverage points offer us our greatest hope. Once they understand them, everyone can help to identify and participate in leverage points.
Collectively mapping them and their many feedbacks in a global, open source map - an open knowledge commons (OKC) or open wisdom commons (OWC) for system change will drive global participation.
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It is also clear that interventions in pursuit of just a few goals risk having negative effects on others and missing opportunities to realize synergies and manage trade-offs (Palomo et al., 2019; Singh et al., 2018; Tallis et al., 2018). Examples abound: mitigating climate change via geoengineering could threaten other sustainability targets via unequal distribution of costs and international conflict (Gregory, Satterfield, & Hasell, 2016; Keith, 2000). Similarly, intensive food production poses risks to biodiversity (Beckmann et al., 2019), fuels nutrient run-off that can trigger marine hypoxic zones and associated fisheries losses (Donner & Kucharik, 2008) and demands so much water that hydrological cycles and freshwater ecosystems can be undermined (Davis et al., 2015). Given such interacting effects, how might interventions address a broader suite of sustainability goals?
progress traps
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