for
- progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization
progress trap - example - from history - Sumerian civilization
- the really big progress traps uh come with with the invention of agriculture and - i mentioned the first full-blown civilization in the old world the sumerians who perfected the art of irrigation
in what is now southern iraq and
- for for several centuries everything went really well
- They had built canals and ran the water onto the desert and were able
to
- raise more and more crops and
- expand their farmland and
- expand their population and
- their cities got bigger
- their numbers got greater but
- what they didn't know is that the kind of irrigation they were practicing
- was causing the land to get saltier and saltier
- and after a number of centuries they suddenly saw their farm meals declining because of salinity
- and they had to switch to crops that could tolerate more salt
- and then eventually they ended up producing only about one quarter of the food that they'd been able to produce when they started
-and the civilization collapsed
- So they had walked into what i call in my book a progress trap
- and this is where the myth of progress is so seductive
- You do something that in the short run produces obvious benefits so you're
getting this positive feedback from some new invention, whether it's
- a new way to drive mammoth over a cliff or
- it's a new way to expand your farm base through irrigation
- but there's a hidden cost down the road which is often hard to foresee