3 Matching Annotations
- Last 7 days
-
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
-
Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall.
for - question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x - what is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation?
question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x<br /> - What is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation? - If we have even less than 5 years remaining in our carbon budget, then how many years do we actually have to stay within 1.5 Deg C?
-
- Sep 2023
-
docdrop.org docdrop.org
-
these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
- for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
-
highlight
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
- current climate models
- global carbon estimates
- IPCC
- the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
- the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
-
question
- Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
-
there are so many uncertain factors on soil carbon, ocean carbon, ocean heat, ice melt, biodiversity loss, biome tipping points.
- for: precautionary principle, fossil fuel phase out, carbon budget - uncertainties, carbon budget - underestimate
- highlight
- the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
- soil carbon
- ocean carbon
- ocean heat
- ice melt
- biodiversity loss
- biome tipping points
- implies that the any one of these can easily bring our remaining carbon budget down to zero.
- the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
-