for - question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x - what is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation?

question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x<br /> - What is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation? - If we have even less than 5 years remaining in our carbon budget, then how many years do we actually have to stay within 1.5 Deg C?

• for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?

• highlight

  • the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
    • current climate models
    • global carbon estimates
    • IPCC
  • the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
  • the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.

• question

  • Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?

• for: precautionary principle, fossil fuel phase out, carbon budget - uncertainties, carbon budget - underestimate
• highlight
  • the precautionary principle dictates that the uncertainties in:
    • soil carbon
    • ocean carbon
    • ocean heat
    • ice melt
    • biodiversity loss
    • biome tipping points
  • implies that the any one of these can easily bring our remaining carbon budget down to zero.