26 Matching Annotations
  1. Jan 2024
    1. four different types of initiators of new community projectsbased in neighbourhoods:local government,governmental organisations,non-governmental organisations or activists andexisting communities.
      • for: types of initiators of community projects, SONEC - initiators of community projects, question - frameworks for community projects, suggestion - collaboration with My Climate Risk, suggestion - collaboration with U of Hawaii, suggestion - collaboration with ICICLE, suggestion - collaboration with earth commission, suggestion - collaboration with DEAL

      • question: frameworks for community projects

        • If our interest is to attempt to create a global collective action campaign to address our existential polycrisis, which includes the climate crisis, then how do we mobilize at the community level in a meaningful way?

        • I suggest that this must be a cosmolocal effort. Why? Knowledge sharing across all the communities will accelerate the transition of any participating local community.

        • This means that we cannot rely on citizens living in small communities to construct an effective coordination framework for rapid de-escalation of the polycrisis. The capacity does not exist within small communities to build such a complex system. The system can be more effectively built before the collective action campaign is started by a virtual community of experts and ready for trial with pilot communities.
        • To meet this enormous challenge, it cannot be done in an adhoc way. At this point in time, many people in many communities all around the globe know of the existential crisis we face, but if we look at the annual carbon emissions, none of the existing community efforts has made a difference in their continuing escalation.
        • The knowledge required to synchronize millions of communities to have a unified wartime-scale collective action mobilization to reach decarbonization goals that the mainstream approach has not even made a dent in will be a complex problem.
        • In other words, what is proposed is a partnership.
        • Since we are faced with global commons problems that pose existential threats if not mitigated in 5 to 8 years, the scope of the problem is enormous.
        • Super wicked problems require unprecedented levels of collaboration at every level.
        • The downscaling of global planetary boundaries and doughnut economics seems the most logical way to think global, act local.
        • Building such a collaboration system requires expert knowledge. Once built, however, it requires testing in pilot communities. This is where a partnership can take place

        • 2024, Jan. 1 Adder

          • My Climate Risk Regional Hubs
            • time 29:46 of https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fevent%2Flater-is-too-late-tipping-the-balance-from-negative-to-positive&group=world
            • https://www.wcrp-climate.org/mcr-hubs
            • Suggestion:
              • SRG has long entertained a collaborative open science project for grassroots polycrisis / climate crisis education - to measure and validate latest climate departure dates
              • This would make climate change far more salient to the average person because of the observable trends in disruption of local economic activity connected to the local ecology due to climate impacts
              • This would be a synergistic project between SRG, LCE, SoNeC, My Climate Risk hubs, ICICLE and U of Hawaii
              • Our community frameworks need to go BEYOND simply adaptation though, which is what "My Climate Risk" focuses exclusively on. We need to also engage equally in climate mitigation.
        • reference
        • I coedited this volume on examples of existing cosmolocal projects
  2. Nov 2023
  3. Sep 2023
      • for: climate change - false binary, jobs vs environment, example, example climate change - false binary, climate departure, leverage point

      • example: false environmental binary

        • activists need to better communicate the false binary that climate denialists keep using to pull the wool over people's eyes.
        • jobs vs environment ignores the short term threat of environmental degradation
        • this is where participatory climate departure can show the threat in a visceral, concrete way that is far more compelling you the average person than any intellectual attempt to explain the differences example - climate change - false binary
    1. A widely publicized study published last year by researchers at the University of Northern Arizona analyzed satellite images taken between 1985 and 2019. They show that large parts of the boreal forest have “browned” (i.e., died) in the south and greened with trees and shrubs in the north. If this shift, long hypothesized as a future outcome of warming, is already underway, the effects will be profound, transforming natural habitats, animal migration and human settlements.
      • for: climate departure, biodiversity loss, extinction
    2. Cities across the country will begin to reach “climate departure”: a symbolic rubicon, after which a climate falls completely outside historical norms.
      • for: climate departure, Camilo Mora, stats, stats - climate departure - canada, climate departure - montreal, climate departure - vancouver, climate departure - toronto
      • paraphrase
        • Cities across the country will begin to reach “climate departure”: a symbolic rubicon, after which a climate falls completely outside historical norms.
        • Even the coldest year, going forward, will be hotter than the hottest in the past.
        • The concept was defined in 2013 by researchers at the University of Hawai’i, who crunched computer models of 39 different planetary futures to arrive at their predictions.
        • In a scenario consistent with roughly two degrees warming by mid-century,
      • stats: start - Montreal is estimated to reach its departure point in 2072, - Toronto in 2074 and - Vancouver in 2083.
      • stats: end
      • comment
        • the article doesn't mention two important points
          • a number of places are expected to reach climate departure in the 2020's, such as
            • Manokwari, Indonesia in 2020
            • Lagos and Jakarta in 2029
          • Even if we decarbonize at the most aggresive RCP pathway, it would not prevent climate departure, but only delay it by a few decades
        • The implications are profound. It means that the living organisms on most places on the planet will be on a path to extinction or migration. The entire biosphere will be in migration and this also has profound implications on human social and economic systems. Species whose livelihood billions of people depend on will be migrating to other parts of the environment, potentially devastating large swathes of local economies the world over.
      • Reference:
  4. Aug 2023
    1. An unprecedented heatwave occurred in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) from ~25 June to 2 July 2021, over lands colonially named British Columbia (BC) and Alberta (AB) in Canada, Washington (WA), and Oregon (OR) in the United States.
      • for climate change - impacts, climate departure, extinction, biodiversity loss, marine heat wave, ubc, Pacific Northwest heatwave
      • paraphrase
      • stats
        • An unprecedented heatwave occurred in the Pacific Northwest (PNW)
          • from ~25 June to 2 July 2021,
          • over lands colonially named
            • British Columbia (BC)
            • Alberta (AB) in Canada,
            • Washington (WA),
            • Oregon (OR) in the United States.
        • Near-surface air temperature anomalies reached up to 16–20 °C above normal over a wide region (Fig. 1),
          • with many locations breaking all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C (Fig. 2a).
        • The Canadian national temperature record was broken 3 days in a row, at multiple locations,
          • with the highest temperature of 49.6 °C recorded in Lytton, BC, on 29 June (Figs. 1b),
          • 4.6 °C higher than the Canadian record prior to this event.
        • The new record temperature was reportedly the hottest worldwide temperature recorded north of 45° latitude,
          • and hotter than any recorded temperature in Europe or South America.
      • for: marine heat wave, fish dieoff, fish kill, extinction, climate departure, climate change - impacts
      • title: The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
      • date: Feb. 9, 2023
    1. None of the 28 streams Cunningham and his colleagues studied hit summertime highs warmer than 25.9 C, the point where warming water can become lethal. But in four rivers, temperatures climbed past 20.3 C, the threshold where some have found juvenile coho stop growing.
      • for: climate change - impacts, extinction, biodiversity loss, fish kill, salmon dieoff, stats, stats - salmon, logging, human activity

      • paraphrase

      • stats

        • None of the 28 streams Cunningham and his colleagues studied hit summertime highs warmer than 25.9 C,
        • the point where warming water can become lethal.
        • But in four rivers, temperatures climbed past 20.3 C,
          • the threshold where some have found juvenile coho stop growing.
        • In some watersheds, deforestation rates climbed to 59 per cent.
      • comment

        • deforestation may be a contributing factor but there are also other variables like changes in glacial melt water
    1. we humans depend on the natural world 00:07:01 [Music] but what we depend on is healthy ecosystems [Music] that are made up of a complex mix of plants and animal species each one has a 00:07:24 role to play and you know I see it as like a beautiful living tapestry and as an animal or plant species disappears from that ecosystem it's like pulling 00:07:38 out a thread and if enough threads are pulled then the tapestry will hang in tatters and the ecosystem will disappear
      • for: extinction, climate departure, Jane Goodall, quote, tapestry, thread,
      • quote
        • we humans depend on the natural world
        • but what we depend on is healthy ecosystems that are made up of a complex mix of plants and animal species
        • each one has a role to play and I see it as like a beautiful living tapestry and as an animal or plant species disappears from that ecosystem it's like pulling out a thread
        • and if enough threads are pulled then the tapestry will hang in tatters and the ecosystem will disappear
      • author
        • Jane Goodall
    1. you can imagine that that if that's happening today and climate change hasn't really even hit yet and biodiversity loss really hasn't even hit badly yet or at least this hasn't hit widespread 00:35:45 badly
      • for: future climate impacts, futures, climate impacts, preparedness, climate change - human migration, climate refuge, climate departure, Camilo Mora
      • comment

        • There will be massive human migration
        • Europe is already unable to cope with the migration of a million climate refugees from Syria
        • The US is polarized due to mass migration of a few people escaping climate crisis and violence in central and South America
        • Developed countries will be overwhelmed with climate refugees number in the millions or tens of millions
        • In addition to human migration, the migration of species seeking cooler temperatures will fundamentally reshape our economies
        • climate departure is the date when local climate goes outside normal historical bounds and locally adapted species do not recognize it anymore and will be forced to migrate to survive
        • climate departure is a huge issue that is going to happen, regardless of which decarbonoization path we take. This means all species on the globe will be undergoing dramatic environmental shifts, making mass extinction more likely.
      • reference

  5. Jul 2023
  6. Feb 2023
    1. To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a).
      • To provide an indication of the projected timing of
      • = climate departure
      • under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,
      • the authors have developed an index that determines
      • the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability
      • for a particular location
      • = ABSTRACT
      • = Ecological and societal disruptions - by modern = climate change - are critically determined
      • by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues.
      • This paper introduces a new index of
      • the year when the projected mean climate of a given location
      • moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
      • This index is called = "climate departure"
      • The study employs data from 1860 to 2005 as the historical period,
      • this index has a global mean of:
        • 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario
        • 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.
      • Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries,
      • this highlights the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented
  7. Jul 2022
    1. There are temperature ceilings that humans and mammals (and many other animals) cannot survive, if breached. What those limits are, and what happens when they are crossed, will have profound implications for agriculture and biodiversity in a warming world.
    2. What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive? By Matthew Huber | July 20, 2022 
      • Title: What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive?
      • Author: Matthew Huber
      • Date: July 20, 2022
  8. bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability
      • Title: he projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
      • Author: Camilo Mora et al.
      • Date: 2013*
    2. Although several studies have documented theareas on Earth where unprecedented climates is likely to occur inresponse to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions24,25 , our understandingof climate change still lacks a precise indication of the time at which theclimate of a given location will shift wholly outside the range of his-torical precedents.To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a). We emphasize that although ourindex commonly identifies future dates, this does not imply thatclimate change is not already occurring. In fact, our index projectswhen ongoing climate change signals the start of a radically differentclimate.

      Climate departure for a specific location on the planet is defined as the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability.

    3. Climate is a primary driver of biological processes, operating fromindividuals to ecosystems, and affects several aspects of human life.Therefore, climates without modern precedents could cause large andpotentially serious impacts on ecological and social systems 1–5 . Forinstance, species whose persistence is shaped by the climate canrespond by shifting their geographical ranges 4–7 , remaining in placeand adapting 5,8 , or becoming extinct 8–11 . Shifts in species distributionsand abundances can increase the risk of extinction 12 , alter communitystructure 3 and disrupt ecological interactions and the functioning ofecosystems. Changing climates could also affect the following: humanwelfare, through changes in the supply of food 13 and water 14,15 ; humanhealth 16, through wider spread of infectious vector-borne diseases 17,18,through heat stress19 and through mental illness20; the economy, throughchanges in goods and services21,22; and national security as a result ofpopulation shifts, heightened competition for natural resources, viol-ent conflict and geopolitical instability23. Although most ecological andsocial systems have the ability to adapt to a changing climate, themagnitude of disruption in both ecosystems and societies will bestrongly determined by the time frames in which the climate will reachunprecedented states1

      As climate departure is projected to occur under all IPCC RCP scenarios, this implies profound changes will take place everywhere on the planet.

      The biosphere will react to this unprecedented shift in equally unprecedented ways. Each species has a comfort zone temperature band to exist within. If the temperature falls outside that zone, it can remain in place and adapt, shift geographical location (migration) or go extinct.

      In an ecosystem, species all depend on each other. When a number of these shift their patterns, it will affect the others, increasing total ecosystem disruptions. Since human activity is dependent on nature, this will also ripple up to humans in a variety of ways.

    4. Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over whichclimates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate ofa given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) fornear-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting thevulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversityand society are to be prevented.

      Read this abstract and let the profound implications sink in!

      In other words, climate departure will occur REGARDLESS OF WHICH RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is taken, whether it is the best or the worst path as defined by IPCC, climate departure will happen! (Climate departure is defined in the second paragraph of the paper) Using historical data between 1860 and 2005 for defining normative climate around the globe, If the worst IPCC emissions scenario (RCP85) happens, climate departure (projected near-surface air temp of the average location on earth) around the globe at the average location happens by 2047 (+/- 14 years). if the BEST IPCC emissions scenario (RCP45) happens, then.climate departure still happens but moves beyond historical variability by 2069 (+/-18 years)

      In other words, NO MATTER WHAT RCP of the ones IPCC publishes we take, climate departure is going to happen! How does the planet plan for such a drastic shift of every ecosystem on the globe? If it is unavoidable, then resiliency will be a key intervention.

  9. Jun 2022
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability

      gloss - Climate Departure

      Climate Departure is the year that the local climate changes so radically that local species no longer recognize it as their environment.

  10. Nov 2021
    1. for example arctic char the fish species that's already 00:09:00 all across the arctic region living at its temperature level about 24 degrees celsius in freshwater ecosystems one fraction of a decree further and we 00:09:13 will enter into a cycle of fish death events that will cascade in food security loss of culture and many other things of this keystone species on the aquatic ecosystems for 00:09:25 communities and nature alike

      See Camilo Mora's nature 2013 paper on climate departure:.https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

    2. arctic fox is now gone it's no longer nesting in in 00:09:38 finnish army and arctic areas and uh its habitats are overtaken by red fox more southern and boreal species so the species on the move is one of the factors that's really altering the kind 00:09:51 of life that we know here

      Arctic Fox is being replaced by Red Fox