10 Matching Annotations
  1. Jul 2022
    1. There are temperature ceilings that humans and mammals (and many other animals) cannot survive, if breached. What those limits are, and what happens when they are crossed, will have profound implications for agriculture and biodiversity in a warming world.
    2. What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive? By Matthew Huber | July 20, 2022 
      • Title: What happens if the world gets too hot for animals to survive?
      • Author: Matthew Huber
      • Date: July 20, 2022
  2. bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link bafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability
      • Title: he projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
      • Author: Camilo Mora et al.
      • Date: 2013*
    2. Although several studies have documented theareas on Earth where unprecedented climates is likely to occur inresponse to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions24,25 , our understandingof climate change still lacks a precise indication of the time at which theclimate of a given location will shift wholly outside the range of his-torical precedents.To provide an indication of the projected timing of climate depar-ture under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we havedeveloped an index that determines the year when the values of agiven climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variabilityfor a particular location (Fig. 1a). We emphasize that although ourindex commonly identifies future dates, this does not imply thatclimate change is not already occurring. In fact, our index projectswhen ongoing climate change signals the start of a radically differentclimate.

      Climate departure for a specific location on the planet is defined as the year when the values of a given climatic variable exceed the bounds of historical variability.

    3. Climate is a primary driver of biological processes, operating fromindividuals to ecosystems, and affects several aspects of human life.Therefore, climates without modern precedents could cause large andpotentially serious impacts on ecological and social systems 1–5 . Forinstance, species whose persistence is shaped by the climate canrespond by shifting their geographical ranges 4–7 , remaining in placeand adapting 5,8 , or becoming extinct 8–11 . Shifts in species distributionsand abundances can increase the risk of extinction 12 , alter communitystructure 3 and disrupt ecological interactions and the functioning ofecosystems. Changing climates could also affect the following: humanwelfare, through changes in the supply of food 13 and water 14,15 ; humanhealth 16, through wider spread of infectious vector-borne diseases 17,18,through heat stress19 and through mental illness20; the economy, throughchanges in goods and services21,22; and national security as a result ofpopulation shifts, heightened competition for natural resources, viol-ent conflict and geopolitical instability23. Although most ecological andsocial systems have the ability to adapt to a changing climate, themagnitude of disruption in both ecosystems and societies will bestrongly determined by the time frames in which the climate will reachunprecedented states1

      As climate departure is projected to occur under all IPCC RCP scenarios, this implies profound changes will take place everywhere on the planet.

      The biosphere will react to this unprecedented shift in equally unprecedented ways. Each species has a comfort zone temperature band to exist within. If the temperature falls outside that zone, it can remain in place and adapt, shift geographical location (migration) or go extinct.

      In an ecosystem, species all depend on each other. When a number of these shift their patterns, it will affect the others, increasing total ecosystem disruptions. Since human activity is dependent on nature, this will also ripple up to humans in a variety of ways.

    4. Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over whichclimates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate ofa given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gasemissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) fornear-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (614 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting thevulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversityand society are to be prevented.

      Read this abstract and let the profound implications sink in!

      In other words, climate departure will occur REGARDLESS OF WHICH RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is taken, whether it is the best or the worst path as defined by IPCC, climate departure will happen! (Climate departure is defined in the second paragraph of the paper) Using historical data between 1860 and 2005 for defining normative climate around the globe, If the worst IPCC emissions scenario (RCP85) happens, climate departure (projected near-surface air temp of the average location on earth) around the globe at the average location happens by 2047 (+/- 14 years). if the BEST IPCC emissions scenario (RCP45) happens, then.climate departure still happens but moves beyond historical variability by 2069 (+/-18 years)

      In other words, NO MATTER WHAT RCP of the ones IPCC publishes we take, climate departure is going to happen! How does the planet plan for such a drastic shift of every ecosystem on the globe? If it is unavoidable, then resiliency will be a key intervention.

    1. but you can imagine that that if that's happening today and climate change hasn't really even hit yet and biodiversity loss really hasn't even hit badly yet or at least this hasn't hit widespread 00:35:45 badly where are we going to be in in in 10 years there's going to be millions i read a paper and i'm sorry i don't remember the citation but i read a citation a paper 00:35:58 that said that um you know possibly uh a third of the global population could be migrants in the future you know in the coming decades i mean that's billions of people 00:36:10 have to go somewhere and we are not prepared at all like in america or really anywhere we're not prepared to absorb those people bring them into some kind of productive engaged society where we're all working together 00:36:24 and cooperating to you know to to address the needs of society we're not anywhere near that and maybe i'll mention one more too because it's one that people don't usually think of but 00:36:35 the even if there's no uh even if there's no uh uh catastrophe even if things plug along as they're going and there's no mass die off of humans or anything like that 00:36:47 the population is set to decline i don't know when the peak is supposed to come but uh the peak is supposed to come at you know within the next 10 20 years or so 00:36:59 and after that the world population will start to decline how is how is this growth capitalism model growth-based capitalism model how is that going to 00:37:12 function when the world is shrinking you know so there's there's just there's there's there's short-term issues there's long-term issues there there's just i would say overwhelming evidence that 00:37:25 what we're doing is not sustainable on any level and if we don't do something it's going to lead to to even greater catastrophe

      On that note, climate departure is a huge issue that is going to happen, regardless of which path we take. This means all species on the globe will be undergoing dramatic environmental shifts, making mass extinction more likely.

      See SRG annotations on Dr. Camilo Mora et al. seminal 2013 paper on climate departure: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbafybeihfoajtasczfz4s6u6j4mmyzlbn7zt4f7hpynjdvd6vpp32zmx5la.ipfs.dweb.link%2FTheprojectedtimingofclimatedeparture2013.pdf&group=vnpq69nW

  3. Jun 2022
    1. The projected timing of climate departurefrom recent variability

      gloss - Climate Departure

      Climate Departure is the year that the local climate changes so radically that local species no longer recognize it as their environment.



  4. Nov 2021
    1. for example arctic char the fish species that's already 00:09:00 all across the arctic region living at its temperature level about 24 degrees celsius in freshwater ecosystems one fraction of a decree further and we 00:09:13 will enter into a cycle of fish death events that will cascade in food security loss of culture and many other things of this keystone species on the aquatic ecosystems for 00:09:25 communities and nature alike

      See Camilo Mora's nature 2013 paper on climate departure:.https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12540

    2. arctic fox is now gone it's no longer nesting in in 00:09:38 finnish army and arctic areas and uh its habitats are overtaken by red fox more southern and boreal species so the species on the move is one of the factors that's really altering the kind 00:09:51 of life that we know here

      Arctic Fox is being replaced by Red Fox