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  1. Oct 2021
    1. While lacking a mandate to actually rule Lebanon, Hezbollah has successfully occupied the shell of an almost completely failed state. Sanctions have created a vicious feedback loop, in which attempts to curb Hezbollah’s influence just deteriorate the Lebanese state, which allows Hezbollah to fill the vacuum of state function. The Lebanese military is desperately trying to hold the center as the only legitimate state institution. But the military lacks the capacity to hold on to power, and Hezbollah has proved that a mandate is easier to build than capacity. Hezbollah also has a powerful ally in the victorious Assad government in Syria, both of which now have an interest in repatriating as many Syrian refugees as possible to undermine Sunni influence in Lebanon. Repatriation prevents the Sunnis from growing their base in Lebanon, and protects Hezbollah’s Shiite base from the internal threat of Sunni influence.

      Summary

    2. The strike was likely authorized by Paris and Washington, both of which have warned several times against Hezbollah circumventing the state to provide a solution to the fuel crisis themselves.

      Fight over who gets to provide a solution to crisis: that is amazing perspective... if you try to help, we'll spend resources that could be pooled into helping to undermine your efforts to help and kill you for trying.