Bayes’ Theorem postulates that the probability of a hypothesis being true increases or decreases as pieces of evidence for or against it accumulate. In the words of Bennett (2009: 8), ‘the more unlikely a piece of evidence [E] is in light of alternatives to explanation H, the more that evidence [E] increases our confidence that H is true . . .’ Although it remains controversial whether it makes sense to assign specific numerical probabilities to qualitative evidence (Beach, 2017: 15; Fairfield and Charman, 2017; Zaks, 2021), applying the general principles of Bayesian inference can be considered another benchmark for process-tracing research.

Their exact function will be explained later and is something that should not bother you yet.

Observed changes (°C) in annual temperature across Canada between 1948 and 2016, based on linear trends. From Chapter 4 Figure 4.3.

If you are using an operating system that uses the systemd service manager (which nowadays includes most GNU/Linux distributions), then the best solution might be to use systemd to start your Emacs daemon on boot. You can do this by creating a file $HOME/.config/systemd/user/emacs.service with the following contents:

‘-a COMMAND’ ‘--alternate-editor=COMMAND’ Specify a command to run if ‘emacsclient’ fails to contact Emacs. This is useful when running ‘emacsclient’ in a script. As a special exception, if COMMAND is the empty string, then ‘emacsclient’ starts Emacs in daemon mode (as ‘emacs --daemon’) and then tries connecting again. ‘-c’ ‘--create-frame’ Create a new graphical “client frame”, instead of using an existing Emacs frame. See below for the special behavior of ‘C-x C-c’ in a client frame. If Emacs cannot create a new graphical frame (e.g., if it cannot connect to the X server), it tries to create a text terminal client frame, as though you had supplied the ‘-t’ option instead. ‘-t’ ‘--tty’ ‘-nw’ Create a new client frame on the current text terminal, instead of using an existing Emacs frame. This behaves just like the ‘-c’ option, described above, except that it creates a text terminal frame (*note Non-Window Terminals::).

I do this by starting an emacs daemon when I login. Where you put this command depends on your desktop manager. I use i3, which is configured to run a script on login that includes the following: emacs --daemon & With that, emacs is always running in the background, and I open a new client with emacsclient -c -n, bound to a convenient keybinding in the window manager. If you're working in a terminal, you only need a simple alias like alias emc='emacsclient', possibly with -n, -c or -t arguments, depending on how you use it. Do check out the options for emacsclient in the manual: ((emacs) emacsclient Options, accessible from Emacs by C-h r m emacsclient options <enter>). You can use the -a flag to automatically start an emacs daemon if it isn't running already, and -c or -t to open a new frame or terminal client, rather than reusing an existing one (in the same session):

Since emacsclient can handle long package loading time proerly, I really want to keep at least one emacs process, and most of the time only one emacs process, open as a background process and better hide GUI. Right now I defined the following function in .bashrc: emc () { if [[ $# -eq 0 ]]; then emacs --eval "(suspend-frame)" & return fi args=($*); setsid emacsclient -c -e "(find-file \"${args[*]}\")" } And also have the following line in .bashrc: emc So everytime I open up a shell, I will end up having a new emacs process. The problem is I will have many additional unnecessary emacs process after opening up many shells. However, I only want to maintain one single emacs process all the time from startup better hide GUI.

Emacsclient: One single emacs process all the time from start up & never close & better hide GUI

Shepardizing®The process of consulting Shepard's®to see if a case has been overturned, reaffirmed, questioned, or cited by later cases

Primary SourcesA document that establishes the law on a particular issue, such as a case decision or legislative act

Secondary Sources:Sources of information that describe or interpret the law, such as legal treatises, law review articles, and other scholarly legal writings, cited by lawyers to persuade a court to reach a particular decision in a case, but which the court is not obligated to follow

Capybaras can run very fast with a top speed of about 22 mph (35 km an hour).  They can run as fast as a small horse.

. The distance from the main grazing areas to the nearest pond is never more than 300 m. Most mating takes place in water

Capybaras are very agile in water and can swim very fast. They can spend long hours in water, in part to thermoregulate (maintain a lower body temperature) as their sweat glands are not well developed. They can remain under water for up to 5 minutes.

A Jaguar has to be within 3 feet of a capybara to have a chance of a successful attack.

Net sales = gross sales – (customer discounts, returns, and allowances) Gross profit = net sales – cost of goods sold Operating profit = gross profit – total operating expenses Net profit = operating profit – taxes – interest Net profit = net sales – cost of goods sold – operating expense – taxes – interest

Another equation to calculate net income: Net sales = gross sales – (customer discounts + returns + allowances) Gross profit = net sales – cost of goods sold Gross profit percentage = [(net sales – cost of goods sold)/net sales] × 100%. Operating profit = gross profit – total operating expenses Net income = operating profit – taxes – interest

Another equation to calculate net income: Net sales (revenue) - Cost of goods sold = Gross profit - SG&A expenses (combined costs of operating the company) - Research and development (R&D) = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) - Depreciation and amortization = Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) - Interest expense (cost of borrowing money) = Earnings before taxes (EBT) - Tax expense = Net income (EAT)

Here is how you reach net profit on a P&L (Profit & Loss) account: Sales revenue = price (of product) × quantity sold Gross profit = sales revenue − cost of sales and other direct costs Operating profit = gross profit − overheads and other indirect costs EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) = operating profit + non-operating income Pretax profit (EBT, earnings before taxes) = operating profit − one off items and redundancy payments, staff restructuring − interest payable Net profit = Pre-tax profit − tax Retained earnings = Profit after tax − dividends

Net profit is a measure of the fundamental profitability of the venture. "It is the revenues of the activity less the costs of the activity. The main complication is . . . when needs to be allocated" across ventures. "Almost by definition, overheads are costs that cannot be directly tied to any specific" project, product, or division

Net profit: To calculate net profit for a venture (such as a company, division, or project), subtract all costs, including a fair share of total corporate overheads, from the gross revenues or turnover. Net profit = sales revenue − total costs

So where does the remaining $2 billion a year go? Into expansion? No, ten years of the savings will help pay for the $20 billion stock buyback announced last fall.

All of this also has to be weighed against the additional money Walmart will get from the tax cuts. According to what a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy told the New York Times, Walmart could easily save $2.2 billion a year from the tax cuts. The company says that the wage increases and bonuses would run $700 million.

And then, another 3,500 store co-managers will lose their jobs. These would be higher-paying positions in the stores. But, Walmart will hire 1,700 assistant store managers, a lower salaried job.

The store closures are expected to cut 10,000 jobs, with another 1,000 being lost at the company's headquarters.

Tax cuts may have helped offset the costs of tax-deductible spending that seems likely to have happened anyway (as wage strategies are worked out long in advance in any intelligently run company). But helping them are the store closing, firings, and demotions that Walmart also announced.

Layoffs and demotions offset the wage increase

The Bureau of Labor CPI inflation calculator says that $5 in January 1983 was the equivalent of $12.60 in December 2017. The average wage in December was $22.30. In 1983, $5 an hour was poor pay and $11 is today.

Don't misunderstand, any increase in the entry level wages with an employer of Walmart's size is good. The lower the wage, the more likely people will need public assistance of some kind. Whether you want to call these subsidies to employees rather than employers, it is still subsistence money, not munificent remuneration. Having the government deliver it means employers pay less directly and still have workers live through the night to show up the next morning, which is why it's rightly called an effective employer subsidy, just as specialized and targeted massive tax breaks and loopholes are direct subsidies.

companies have claimed that the sudden influx of money, which will likely go to boosting stock prices (top executives and board members are shareholders, too), actually allows them to invest in employees and their businesses. But they generally follow a pattern of doing something seemingly flashy for employees that lasts a year or less following by something far more obviously moderate over time

The keybindings for movement by word in Emacs is almost the same as that of movement by character, but instead of the prefix C- it is M-. To move forward one word use M-f; and to move backward one word use M-b.

I recommend adding this to your .emacs, as it makes C-n insert newlines if the point is at the end of the buffer. Useful, as it means you won’t have to reach for the return key to add newlines!(setq next-line-add-newlines t)

The four fundamental movement keys are C-n, for next logical line; C-p, for previous logical line; C-f for move forward by character; and C-b for move backward by character

for ($1;$2;$3) { `yas-selected-text`$0 }

M-x yas-visit-snippet-file, key binding: C-c & C-v Prompts you for possible snippet expansions like yas-insert-snippet, but instead of expanding it, takes you directly to the snippet definition's file, if it exists.

M-x yas-new-snippet, key bindind: C-c & C-n Creates a new buffer with a template for making a new snippet. The buffer is in snippet-mode (see below). When you are done editing the new snippet, use C-c C-c to save it.

Always make sure we have an ID in our Org entries

Format clock summary as x:xx

Use the built-in compose-mail to send mails.

Use '-' as the bullet list exclusively.

Log the time a task is completed.

Open things in current frame.

Be smart about killing and moving; if there is a closed fold, act on the entire fold.

Don't let me close Projecst that have incomplete tasks.

Show an empty line between trees if it is there.

Turn on org-indent by default, this makes text indent to the level of its org-mode heading. Looks great paired with the hidden leading stars below.

(global-set-key (kbd "C-c c") 'org-capture)

(define-key org-mode-map (kbd "<f9> t") 'bh/insert-inactive-timestamp)

Reveal lots of entries nearby when unhiding an entry.

| 4.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.810249675906654 |

#+NAME: roots_of_list #+BEGIN_SRC python :var lst=cubes :results list import math return [ math.sqrt(n) for n in lst ] #+END_SRC

#+CALL: roots_of_list( lst='(16 144 81 61) )

he ball would expand almost instantly into a fireball the width of four football fields, incinerating essentially everything and everyone within

The ionized plasma in the fireball would create a localized electromagnetic pulse more powerful than lightning, shorting out communications and electronics nearby—though most would be destroyed by the bomb’s other effects in any case

bomb would also release an intense burst of gamma and neutron radiation which would be lethal for nearly everyone directly exposed within about two-thirds of a mile from the center of the blast

nuclear flash from the heat of the fireball would radiate in both visible light and the infrared

Anyone who looked directly at the blast would be blinded

combination of blast, heat, and radiation would kill virtually everyone in this zone. The blast would be accompanied by winds of many hundreds of miles per hour

. Out to more than half a mile, the blast would be strong enough to collapse most residential buildings and create a serious danger that office buildings would topple over, killing those inside and those in the path of the rubble

Thousands of panic-stricken people might receive deadly doses of radiation as they fled from their homes. Some of the radiation will be longer-lived; areas most severely affected would have to be abandoned for many years after the attack

. The US military and the national guard could provide critically important capabilities—but federal plans assume that “no significant federal response” would be available for 24-to-72 hours

. Many estimates of casualties are based on census data, which reflect where people sleep at night; if the attack occurred in the middle of a workday, the numbers of people crowded into the office towers at the heart of many modern cities would be far higher. T

The scenario we have been describing is a groundburst. An airburst—such as might occur, for example, if terrorists put their bomb in a small aircraft they had purchased or rented—would extend the blast and fire effects over a wider area, killing and injuring even larger numbers of people immediately

But an airburst would not have the same lingering effects from fallout as a groundburst, because the rock and dirt would not be sucked up into the fireball and contaminated

even a 1-kiloton blast would be a catastrophic event, having a deadly radius between one-third and one-half that of a 10-kiloton blast

The government might well impose martial law as it sought to control the situation, hunt for the perpetrators, and find any additional weapons or nuclear materials they might have

oreign policy analyst Stephen Krasner has argued that “conventional rules of sovereignty would be abandoned overnight.” Confidence in both the national security institutions of the country attacked and international institutions such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations, which had so manifestly

To date, there is no evidence that nuclear weapons or the materials needed to make them have ever fallen into the hands of a terrorist group; even large and sophisticated terrorist groups that have tried to get nuclear weapons have failed to do so; and the international community has taken a wide range of actions over the past quarter-century (and particularly over the 2010-2016 period of the nuclear security summits) that have drastically improved the security measures for nuclear weapons and materials around the world

One can imagine new nuclear terror driving a new push for nuclear disarmament, but one could also imagine states feeling more certain than ever before that they needed nuclear weapons

“tens of millions of people into dire poverty

Hundreds of thousands of people would be too injured or sick to work for weeks or months

Terrorist use of an actual nuclear bomb is a low-probability event

we attempt to spell out here the likely consequences of the explosion of a single terrorist nuclear bomb on a major city, and its subsequent ripple effects on the rest of the planet.

Yet, for all the seeming convenience of Microsoft Excel (and its ilk), we pay a hefty price — our time and sanity. “Hyperbole!” I hear you shout. “Nonsense!” I hear you cry. And, when these initial protestations fade, we are left with the ever popular: “I have a system.”

1956. I am a Mathematician. London (Gollancz).

1950, The Human Use of Human Beings. The Riverside Press (Houghton Mifflin Co.).

The Wiener–Khinchin theorem, (or Wiener – Khintchine theorem or Khinchin – Kolmogorov theorem), states that the power spectral density of a wide-sense-stationary random process is the Fourier transform of the corresponding autocorrelation function.

The Paley–Wiener theorem relates growth properties of entire functions on Cn and Fourier transformation of Schwartz distributions of compact support.

iener's Tauberian theorem, a 1932 result of Wiener, developed Tauberian theorems in summability theory, on the face of it a chapter of real analysis, by showing that most of the known results could be encapsulated in a principle taken from harmonic analysis. In its present formulation, the theorem of Wiener does not have any obvious association with Tauberian theorems, which deal with infinite series; the translation from results formulated for integrals, or using the language of functional analysis and Banach algebras, is however a relatively routine process.

Consequently, the one-dimensional version of Brownian motion was named the Wiener process. It is the best known of the Lévy processes, càdlàg stochastic processes with stationary statistically independent increments, and occurs frequently in pure and applied mathematics, physics and economics (e.g. on the stock-market).

Wiener took a great interest in the mathematical theory of Brownian motion (named after Robert Brown) proving many results now widely known such as the non-differentiability of the paths

What emerged was a mathematical theory of great generality---a theory for predicting the future as best as one can on the basis of incomplete information about the past. It was a statistical theory that included applications that didn't strictly speaking predict the future, but only tried to remove noise. It made use of Wiener's earlier work on integral equations and Fourier transforms.[22] [23]

A simple mathematical representation of Brownian motion, the Wiener equation, named after Wiener, assumes the current velocity of a fluid particle fluctuates randomly.

In the mathematical field of probability, the "Wiener sausage" is a neighborhood of the trace of a Brownian motion up to a time t, given by taking all points within a fixed distance of Brownian motion. It can be visualized as a cylinder of fixed radius the centerline of which is Brownian motion.

Wiener was an early studier of stochastic and mathematical noise processes, contributing work relevant to electronic engineering, electronic communication, and control systems. It was Wiener's idea to model a signal as if it were an exotic type of noise, giving it a sound mathematical basis.

Information is information, not matter or energy. — Norbert Wiener, Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine

Bernard Friedman (Ph.D. 1936)

Robert A. Heinlein named a spaceship after him in his 1957 novel Citizen of the Galaxy, a "Free Trader" ship called the Norbert Wiener mentioned in Chapter 14.

Norman Levinson (Sc.D. 1935)

The Norbert Wiener Center for Harmonic Analysis and Applications, at the University of Maryland, College Park, is named in his honor.[18]

The crater Wiener on the far side of the Moon is named after him.

The Norbert Wiener Award for Social and Professional Responsibility awarded annually by CPSR, was established in 1987 in honor of Wiener to recognize contributions by computer professionals to socially responsible use of computers.

The Norbert Wiener Prize in Applied Mathematics was endowed in 1967 in honor of Norbert Wiener by MIT's mathematics department and is provided jointly by the American Mathematical Society and Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

After the war, Wiener became increasingly concerned with what he believed was political interference with scientific research, and the militarization of science. His article "A Scientist Rebels" for the January 1947 issue of The Atlantic Monthly[15] urged scientists to consider the ethical implications of their work. After the war, he refused to accept any government funding or to work on military projects. The way Wiener's beliefs concerning nuclear weapons and the Cold War contrasted with those of John von Neumann is the major theme of the book John Von Neumann and Norbert Wiener.[16][citation needed]

During World War II, his work on the automatic aiming and firing of anti-aircraft guns caused Wiener to investigate information theory independently of Claude Shannon and to invent the Wiener filter. (To him is due the now standard practice of modeling an information source as a random process—in other words, as a variety of noise.)

Many tales, perhaps apocryphal, were told of him at MIT, especially concerning his absent-mindedness. It was said that he returned home once to find his house empty. He inquired of a neighborhood girl the reason, and she said that the family had moved elsewhere that day. He thanked her for the information and she replied, "That's why I stayed behind, Daddy!"[9]

Wiener is considered the originator of cybernetics, a formalization of the notion of feedback, with implications for engineering, systems control, computer science, biology, neuroscience, philosophy, and the organization of society.

What does a pair of orthonormal vectors in 2-D Euclidean space look like? Let u = (x1, y1) and v = (x2, y2). Consider the restrictions on x1, x2, y1, y2 required to make u and v form an orthonormal pair. From the orthogonality restriction, u • v = 0. From the unit length restriction on u, ||u|| = 1. From the unit length restriction on v, ||v|| = 1. Expanding these terms gives 3 equations: x 1 x 2 + y 1 y 2 = 0 {\displaystyle x_{1}x_{2}+y_{1}y_{2}=0\quad } x 1 2 + y 1 2 = 1 {\displaystyle {\sqrt {{x_{1}}^{2}+{y_{1}}^{2}}}=1} x 2 2 + y 2 2 = 1 {\displaystyle {\sqrt {{x_{2}}^{2}+{y_{2}}^{2}}}=1} Converting from Cartesian to polar coordinates, and considering Equation ( 2 ) {\displaystyle (2)} and Equation ( 3 ) {\displaystyle (3)} immediately gives the result r1 = r2 = 1. In other words, requiring the vectors be of unit length restricts the vectors to lie on the unit circle. After substitution, Equation ( 1 ) {\displaystyle (1)} becomes cos ⁡ θ 1 cos ⁡ θ 2 + sin ⁡ θ 1 sin ⁡ θ 2 = 0 {\displaystyle \cos \theta _{1}\cos \theta _{2}+\sin \theta _{1}\sin \theta _{2}=0} . Rearranging gives tan ⁡ θ 1 = − cot ⁡ θ 2 {\displaystyle \tan \theta _{1}=-\cot \theta _{2}} . Using a trigonometric identity to convert the cotangent term gives tan ⁡ ( θ 1 ) = tan ⁡ ( θ 2 + π 2 ) {\displaystyle \tan(\theta _{1})=\tan \left(\theta _{2}+{\tfrac {\pi }{2}}\right)} ⇒ θ 1 = θ 2 + π 2 {\displaystyle \Rightarrow \theta _{1}=\theta _{2}+{\tfrac {\pi }{2}}} It is clear that in the plane, orthonormal vectors are simply radii of the unit circle whose difference in angles equals 90°.