the targets of the Paris Agreement are now beyond the reach of incrementalism.
for - climate target of 1.5 Deg C - incrementalism won't work - rapid system change is necessary
8 Matching Annotations
- Nov 2024
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www.nature.com www.nature.com
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- Dec 2023
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climateuncensored.com climateuncensored.com
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For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
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for: 1.5 Deg C target - 50/50 chance
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comment
- What most people don't recognize and pay attention to is 50/50 chance that is part of the 1.5 Deg C target.
- The world is up in arms about the 1.5 Deg C target when it ONLY GIVES US A 50/50 CHANCE!
- These are not great odds! In fact, THESE ODDS ARE TERRIBLE! What if you were given those chances in your cancer treatment? You would be concerned, wouldn't you?
- So what would an intervention closer to 90% chance of staying under 1.5 Deg C look like? If people consider today's intervention impossible, then a 90% chance would be beyond impossible. This is the nature of the challenge we face!
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braveneweurope.com braveneweurope.com
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For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
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for: do people know? - 50% chance, 1.5 Deg. C target - is still a crap shoot
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new trailmark: do people know?
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do people know?: 50% chance
- the well known 1.5 Deg C. target, which currently seems almost impossible to achieve, is still a crap shoot! There is a 50% chance that if be we achieve it, we can still trigger very harmful impacts like tipping points
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- Sep 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
- for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
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highlight
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
- current climate models
- global carbon estimates
- IPCC
- the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
- the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
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question
- Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
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- Aug 2023
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the series really is a is a proposal for an rd r d program aimed at as new de novo development of new societal systems 00:45:54 and it's also a way to context and a way to think about what transformation might mean so uh it is it is a long-term project you know like a 50-year 00:46:07 project this isn't we're not it would be dangerous to change society radically overnight
- for: science-based societal transformation, whole system change, overnight change, 50 year project, radical change
- paraphrase
- this is not an overnight project
- radical change would be dangerous
- comment
- the word "radical" is subjective here
- how does John view the latest earth system science about the need to reach zero emissions in less than a decade and likely 6 years in order to stay within 1.5 Deg C carbon budget?
- is that considered radical change or not?
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- Feb 2023
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subscriber.politicopro.com subscriber.politicopro.com
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The long-term consequences of Russia’s war are less clear. But experts are concerned it may also lock in more future fossil fuel dependence as places like Europe search for replacements for Russian fuel.
- Russian war may increase usage of fuels
- this could make reaching the 1.5 Deg C target more difficult
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Most of them are, in general, moving in the right direction. They just aren’t aggressive enough yet to be consistent with the kind of transformative social change required to achieve the 1.5 C target.
- climate change actions
- Most of the climate actions are moving in the right direction.
- but they just aren’t aggressive enough yet to achieve the 1.5 C target.
- right direction, wrong speed
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attachment.rrz.uni-hamburg.de attachment.rrz.uni-hamburg.de
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We conclude that meeting the1.5°C goal is not plausible, although it is not impos-sible. The future scope and pace of social transfor-mations toward climate action would be crucial forattaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals
- meeting 1.5 Deg C goal is not plausible.
- future scope and pace of social transformation towards climate action is crucial to meet the target
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