- Dec 2023
- Sep 2023
I engage with the World Economic Forum, I engage with CEOs around the world, because I think they are keystone actors, that you just have to – between us – bend them to... Because they are simply sitting on so much finance and cash and emission representation.
- for: leverage points - top-down actors
- they are top-down leverage points
- Aug 2023
Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- July 31, 2023
- Sonia Graham
for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola
- Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
- Sirkku Juhola
- Tatiana Filatova
- Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
- Reinhard Mechler
- Jurgen Scheffran
- Pia-Johanna Schweizer
- Sept 21, 2022
- Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
- Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
- With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
- While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
- overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
- Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
- This paper brings together three strands of literature -
- social tipping points,
- climate adaptation limits and
- systemic risks,
- which so far have been separate.
- Furthermore, we discuss
- methods and
- used to illustrate the dynamics of
- social and
- adaptation tipping points
- in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
- We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
- which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
- Dec 2022
We will then analyze levers of transformation
!- leverage points : transformation
By identifying safe and just target ranges, the question arises: How can we achieve these targets and live within the corridor? Transforming toward a “just” world may be a pre-condition for being able to achieve a “safe” world. Leverage points to achieve such transformations are essential for governing our commons.
!- role : leverage points - Leverage points play a critical role to achieve transformation to a safe and just corridor
- Jul 2022
Most academics continue to insist that it is still – barely – physically possible to limit warming to no more than 1.5°C. There are strong incentives to stay behind the invisible line that separates academia from wider social and political concerns, and so to not take a clear position about this.But we need to clearly acknowledge now that warming will exceed 1.5°C because we are losing vital reaction time by entertaining fantastic scenarios. The sooner we get real about our current situation and what it demands, the better.
Slight chance. We need nonlinear solutions and to find all the leverage points, social tipping points and idling capacity we can.:
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1900577117&group=world
An Introduction to PLAN E Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First-Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usmcu.edu%2FOutreach%2FMarine-Corps-University-Press%2FExpeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal%2FAn-Introduction-to-PLAN-E%2Ffbclid%2FIwAR3facE8l6Jk4Msc8C1nw8yWtwnzSCXVZGlO7JLkjqo8CWYTYAqAMTPkTO8%2F&group=world
Science Driven Societal Transformation https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2Fz9ZCjd2rqGY%2F&group=world
- social tipping points
- nonlinear solutions
- leverage points
- John Boik
- Science driven societal transformation
- Ilona Otto et al.
- Elizabeth G. Boulton
- idling capacities
- Plan E
- Principled Societies
the following eight leverage points yield dis-proportionately large effects: (i) enabling vi-sions of a good quality of life that do notentail ever-increasing material consumption;(ii) lowering total consumption and waste,including by addressing both populationgrowth and per capita consumption differ-ently in different contexts; (iii) unleashingexisting, widely held values of responsibil-ity to effect new social norms for sustain-ability, especially by extending notions ofresponsibility to include the impacts asso-ciated with consumption; (iv) addressing in-equalities, especially regarding income andgender, that undermine the capacity for sus-tainability; (v) ensuring inclusive decision-making and the fair and equitable sharing ofbenefits arising from the use of and adherenceto human rights in conservation decisions;(vi) accounting for nature’s deterioration fromboth local economic activities and telecouplings(70), including, for example, internationaltrade; (vii) ensuring environmentally friendlytechnological and social innovation, takinginto account potential rebound effects andinvestment regimes; and (viii) promotingeducation, knowledge generation, and themaintenance of different knowledge systems,including in the sciences and indigenous andlocal knowledge, especially regarding nature,conservation, and nature’s sustainable use.Although change at some of these levers andleverage points may encounter resistance indi-vidually, action at other levers and leveragepoints can enable such changes.The review also revealed that innovativegovernance approaches that are integrative,inclusive, informed, and adaptive (105, 106)are needed to effectively apply these levers toleverage points. Integrative approaches focuson the relationships between sectors and poli-cies and ensure policy coherence and effec-tiveness, and inclusive approaches, includingrights-based ones, reflect a plurality of valuesand thus promote equity. Informed govern-ance entails new strategies for knowledgeproduction and coproduction that are inclu-sive of diverse values and knowledge systems.Last, adaptive approaches—including learning,monitoring and feedback loops—help copingwith inevitable uncertainties and complexities.
Eight leverage points: 1. promote worldview of a good life that decouples material consumerism 2. lowering total consumption and waste,including by addressing both population growth and per capita consumption differently in different contexts; 3. unleashing existing, widely held values of responsibility to effect new social norms for sustainability, especially by extending notions of responsibility to include the impacts associated with consumption 4. addressing inequalities, especially regarding income and gender, that undermine the capacity for sustainability; 5. ensuring inclusive decisionmaking and the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of and adherence to human rights in conservation decisions; 6. accounting for nature’s deterioration from both local economic activities and telecouplings, including, for example, international trade; 7. ensuring environmentally friendly technological and social innovation, taking into account potential rebound effects and investment regimes; and 8. promoting education, knowledge generation, and the maintenance of different knowledge systems, including in the sciences and indigenous and local knowledge, especially regarding nature, conservation, and nature’s sustainable use.
evers and leverage points fortransformative changeOur assessment—the most comprehensive car-ried out to date, including the nexus analysisof scenarios and an expert input process withliterature reviews—revealed clearly that re-versing nature’s ongoing decline (100) whilealso addressing inequality will require trans-formative change, namely a fundamental,system-wide reorganization across techno-logical, economic, and social factors, makingsustainability the norm rather than the altru-istic exception.
Transformative change is required across all aspects of society. With such short time windows, leverage points become critical.
- Jun 2022
politicians were especially sensitive to collective illusions even more so because if you think about it all they want to do is get reelected right like that's like the job of a politician is to get reelected so they are exquisitely sensitive to 00:30:57 what they think their constituents believe right and so it makes them susceptible to this and so like and you probably know this like if i don't know about you but like the number of at the national level the number of 00:31:09 of republican elected officials who will tell me privately of course i know this wasn't rigged right but then they'll tell you but but i think most of my constituents do now they're not going out and lying about it 00:31:21 they'll just say nothing right thinking that their silence isn't causing any harm but in fact it's causing great harm this is so um eye-opening because i'm thinking about other domains now i'm just curious like how many 00:31:34 christians actually believe in an afterlife like if you actually privately ask them like go down the standard beliefs of like christianity or i don't mean to pick on christianity by the way any any any religion any religion 00:31:47 i'm so curious have you done that study i'm curious oh but that's that'd be a great study because here's one of the tricky parts with with group belonging is that you know you think about groups whether especially like political 00:31:59 parties whatever they aggregate a bunch of different dimensions of things right like like if so it's funny like why do i with our two-party system why do i have to be why do i have to hate gay people to believe in free markets 00:32:12 right like it doesn't make any sense but they they so you know groups that that pull together you know a lot of different things um it's almost what we do find is it's the same kind of jagged profile thing we talked about last time 00:32:25 which is we know for sure there's no like average democrat or republican in terms of their own beliefs against the party's stated platform um and so like i would be shocked if that's not the case when it comes to religious 00:32:37 identity right but it's certainly something we could do be good research
Politicians are exquisitely sensitive to collective illusions, and that means educating politicians is a leverage point!
the inter-connectedness of the crises we face climate pollution biodiversity and 00:07:54 inequality require our change require a change in our exploitative relationship to our planet to a more holistic and caring one but that can only happen with a change in our behavior
As per IPCC AR6 WGIII, Chapter 5 outlining for the first time, the enormous mitigation potential of social aspects of mitigation - such as behavioral change - can add up to 40 percent of mitigation. And also harkening back to Donella Meadows' leverage points that point out shifts in worldviews, paradigms and value systems are the most powerful leverage points in system change.
Stop Reset Go advocates humanity builds an open source, open access praxis for Deep Humanity, understand the depths of what it means to be a living and dying human being in the context of an entwined culture. Sharing best practices and constantly crowdsourcing the universal and salient aspects of our common humanity can help rapidly transform the inner space of each human INTERbeing, which can powerfully influence outer (social) transformation.
- May 2022
A guiding principle will be to make the hyper-response as not only fun and enjoyable as possible but also meaningful via a vibrant grand narrative approach that connects the mission to conceptions of identity, values, and evolving worldviews.
Gamification will play a critical role to tap into the human psychology that will encourage proactive action. Bend-the-Curve is the glocal game proposed as a way to mobilize ordinary citizens aggregate community scale response teams.
As part of this gamification, a private Transform application within the public and open Indyweb can facilitate individual inner transformation, synchronize that to individual outer (behavior) transformation and synchronize that to collective inner and outer transformation at the respective community collective scale and finally aggregating all community impacts, to the global collective transformation scale. Built in data privacy of the Indyweb insures that everyone can contribute data to the aggregator in a completely anonymous way. All of this is designed to operationalize Donella Meadow's insight that inner transformation of worldviews, paradigms and value systems is the most powerful of all leverage points.
Here, in PLAN E, the concept of entangled security translates this idea into meaning that humanity itself can make a great sudden leap.
An Open Access Deep Humanity education program whose core principles are continuously improved through crowdsourcing, can teach the constructed nature of reality, especially using compelling BEing Journeys. This inner transformation can rapidly create the nonlinear paradigm, worldview and value shifts that Donella Meadows identified as the greatest leverage points in system change.
An analysis of “friendly forces” via a “tribal discourse” activity found that although many of humanity’s smaller and less powerful tribes are engaged in minor operations against the hyperthreat, its most powerful tribes often abet the hyperthreat (figure 2). If humanity’s tribes could be united against the hyperthreat, the current balance of probabilities, which currently lie with a hyperthreat victory and a Hothouse Earth outcome, could be recast.
This is the key idea behind mobilizing an effective global, multi-stakeholder, bottom-up response. Minor operations implies an aggregate approach that has little impact, otherwise known colloquially as "tinkering at the edge". IPCC AR6, WGIII Chapter 5 articulates this same message and for the first time, outlines that demand side system changes can play a significant role in mitigation effectiveness against the hyperthreat. It must be collectively organized individual change that scales to community scales around the globe in order to have impact, leveraging what the IPCC call "middle actors".
An effective strategy must be very time sensitive to the short time window to peak emissions so must identify all leverage points, idling resources and social tipping points available to a global bottom-up mobilization.
- donella meadows
- collective outer transformation
- idling resources
- PLAN E
- behavioral transformation
- collective inner transformation
- social aspects of mitigation
- individual inner transformation
- middle actors
- individual outer transformation
- Deep Humanity
- paradigm shift
- social tippping points
- IPCC AR6 Chapter 5
- BEing journey
- leverage points
- Bend the Curve
- transform app
- value system
- IPCC AR6
- Nov 2021
A final cluster gathers lenses that explore phenomena that are arguably more elastic and with the potential to both indirectly maintain and explicitly reject and reshape existing norms. Many of the topics addressed here can be appropriately characterized as bottom-up, with strong and highly diverse cultural foundations. Although they are influenced by global and regional social norms, the expert framing of institutions, and the constraints of physical infrastructure (from housing to transport networks), they are also domains of experimentation, new norms, and cultural change. Building on this potential for either resisting or catalyzing change, the caricature chosen here is one of avian metaphor and myth: the Ostrich and Phoenix cluster. Ostrich-like behavior—keeping heads comfortably hidden in the sand—is evident in different ways across the lenses of inequity (Section 5.1), high-carbon lifestyles (Section 5.2), and social imaginaries (Section 5.3), which make up this cluster. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyond dominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of transformation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It is conceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the Enabler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The very early signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequently elaborated upon in the latter part of the discussion.
The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.
Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/
The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.
The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.
There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.
A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__
Dr. Lewis Akenji, the lead author of the report says: “Talking about lifestyle changes is a hot-potato issue to policymakers who are afraid to threaten the lifestyles of voters. This report brings a science based approach and shows that without addressing lifestyles we will not be able to address climate change.”
This underscores the critical nature of dealing with the cultural shift of luxury lifestyle. It is recognized as a "hot potato" issue, which implies policy change may be slow and difficult.
Policy changes and new legal tools are ways to force an unwilling individual or group into a behavior change.
A more difficult but potentially more effective way to achieve this cultural shift is based on Donella Meadows' leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/ which identifies the top leverage point as: The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, power structure, rules, its culture — arises.
The Stop Reset Go (SRG) open collective project applies the Deep Humanity (DH) Human Inner Transformation (HIT) process to effect impactful Social Outer Transformation (SOT). This is based on the inner-to-outer flow: The heart feels, the mind thinks, the body acts and a social impact manifests in our shared, public collective human reality.
Meadows top leverage point identifies narratives, stories and value systems that are inner maps to our outer behavior as critical causal agents to transform.
We need to take a much deeper look at the pysche of the luxury lifestyle. Philospher David Loy has done extensive research on this already. https://www.davidloy.org/media.html
Loy is a Buddhist scholar, but Buddhist philosophy can be understood secularly and across all religions.
Loy cites the work of cultural anthropologist Ernest Becker, especially his groundbreaking Pulitzer-prize-winning book: The Denial of Death. Becker wrote:
"Man is literally split in two: he has an awareness of his own splendid uniqueness in that he sticks out of nature with a towering majesty, and yet he goes back into the ground a few feet in order to blindly and dumbly rot and disappear forever. It is a terrifying dilemma to be in and to have to live with. The lower animals are, of course, spared this painful contradiction, as they lack a symbolic identity and the self-consciousness that goes with it. They merely act and move reflexively as they are driven by their instincts. If they pause at all, it is only a physical pause; inside they are anonymous, and even their faces have no name. They live in a world without time, pulsating, as it were, in a state of dumb being. This is what has made it so simple to shoot down whole herds of buffalo or elephants. The animals don't know that death is happening and continue grazing placidly while others drop alongside them. The knowledge of death is reflective and conceptual, and animals are spared it. They live and they disappear with the same thoughtlessness: a few minutes of fear, a few seconds of anguish, and it is over. But to live a whole lifetime with the fate of death haunting one's dreams and even the most sun-filled days—that's something else."
But Loy goes beyond mortality salience and strikes to the heart of our psychological construction of the Self that is the root of our consumption and materialism exasperated crisis.
To reach the wealthy in a compassionate manner, we must recognize that the degree of wealth and materialist accumulation may be in many cases proportional to the anxiety of dying, the anxiety of the groundlessness of the Self construction itself.
Helping all humans to liberate from this anxiety is monumental, and also applies to the wealthy. The release of this anxiety will naturally result in breaking through the illusion of materialism, seeing its false promises.
Those of the greatest material wealth are often also of the greatest spiritual poverty. As we near the end of our lives, materialism's promise may begin to lose its luster and our deepest unanswered questions begin to regain prominence.
At the end of the day, policy change may only effect so much change. What is really required is a reeducation campaign that results in voluntary behavior change that significantly reduces high impact luxury lifestyles. An exchange for something even more valued is a potential answer to this dilemma.
- ernest becker
- donella meadows
- denial of death
- david loy
- leverage points
- carbon inequality
- Stop Reset Go
- luxury emissions
- Deep Humanity
- human inner transformation
- Oct 2021
Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyonddominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of trans-formation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It isconceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the En-abler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The veryearly signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequentlyelaborated in the latter part of the discussion.
This passage pays homage to Donella Meadows, who identified the shift in mindset or paradigm that supports the system as the top leverage point. If we can shift this mindset in sufficient number of people, it can shift the thinking of the Enabler Cluster identified in the paper. A social tipping point strategy can be adopted to help this to happen quickly. This strategy is being developed by Stop Reset Go and other civil society actors.