for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details
paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository
summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting
from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/
18 Matching Annotations
- Jul 2024
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egusphere.copernicus.org egusphere.copernicus.org
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- Dec 2023
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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for: system justification theory, status quo bias
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summary
- Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
- Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
- However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
- system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
- This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies
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- Aug 2023
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tomgreenwood.substack.com tomgreenwood.substack.com
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Without a solid spiritual foundation, humanity may well continue on its path toward self-destruction, whether it be through environmental collapse, nuclear war or Artificial Intelligence gone haywire. On the other hand, if we evolve our culture to value inner work as much as we value outer work, then our individual and collective spiritual wisdom might just catch up with our rapidly advancing technology.
- comment
- critics will argue that such internal paradigm shifts take decades rather than years
- see the paper showing time scales of different types of social tipping points:
- However, what his not been researched is the combination of different types of social tipping points and how specific combinations might actually accelerate action.
- Applying the social tipping point complex contagion findings of Damon Centola to cascading tipping points, where deep inner transformation can play a strategic role, is a possibility worth investigating
- comment
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there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
- for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
- question
- is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
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Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
- for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
- policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
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- for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
- title
- Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
- authors
- Nikos Nikiforakis
- Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
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title
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- source
- date
- July 31, 2023
- author
- Sonia Graham
- reference
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www.rifs-potsdam.de www.rifs-potsdam.de
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
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reference
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- Jul 2023
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ndg.asc.upenn.edu ndg.asc.upenn.edu
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when the size of the committed minority reached~25% of the population, a tipping point wastriggered, and the minority group succeeded inchanging the established social convention.
- Key finding
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- a tipping point was triggered, and the minority group succeeded in changing the established social convention.
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- Key finding
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- Title
- Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention
- Authors
- Damon Centola
- Joshua Becker
- Devon Brackbill
- Andrea Baronchelli
- Date
- 2018
- Source
- Science 360, 1116-1119 (2018)
- Title
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- Feb 2023
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penntoday.upenn.edu penntoday.upenn.edu
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real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
- 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
- depending on the variables of the context
- = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
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“And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
- going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm
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When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
- = 25% Social Tipping Point
- A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
- but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
- abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm
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www.google.com www.google.com
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06:06Weak Ties
- = weak ties
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25:13Complex Contagions
- = complex contagion
- example: climate change norms
- = complex contagion
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- Jan 2022
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www.monbiot.com www.monbiot.com
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As the paper notes, a large body of work suggests that “the power of small groups comes not from their authority or wealth, but from their commitment to the cause”.
What does paper author Damon Centola think about competing minorities?...who will win out to cause the tipping point?
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- Nov 2021
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www.yesmagazine.org www.yesmagazine.org
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social change typically spreads as ‘complex contagions,’ requiring multiple sources of social reinforcement to induce adoption,”
Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.
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www.monbiot.com www.monbiot.com
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Social convention, which has for so long worked against us, can if flipped become our greatest source of power, normalising what now seems radical and weird. If we can simultaneously trigger a cascading regime shift in both technology and politics, we might stand a chance. It sounds like a wild hope. But we have no choice. Our survival depends on raising the scale of civil disobedience until we build the greatest mass movement in history, mobilising the 25% who can flip the system.
This is the core philosophy behind Stop Reset Go, but NOT NECESSARILY just in the direction of civil disobedience. To invest only in that is to put all our eggs in one basket that top down actors will be pressured beyond a certain threshold. It may happen, it may not, or it may just take too long. We must diversify and also invest in systematized bottom-up efforts.
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