Reviewer #3 (Public Review):
The diversity of bacterial species in the human gut microbiome is widely known, but the extensive diversity within each species is far less appreciated. Strains found in individuals on opposite sides of the globe can differ by as little as handfuls of mutations, while strains found in an individual's gut, or in the same household, might have a common ancestor tens of thousands of years ago. What are the evolutionary, ecological, and transmission dynamics that established and maintain this diversity?
The time, T, since the common ancestor of two strains, can be directly inferred by comparing their core genomes and finding the fraction of synonymous (non-amino acid changing) sites at which they differ: dS. With the per-site per-generation mutation rate, μ, and the mean generation times roughly known, this directly yields T (albeit with substantial uncertainty of the generation time.) A traditional way to probe the extent to which selection plays a role is to study pairs of strains and compare the fraction of non-synonymous (amino acid or stop-codon changing) sites, dN, at which the strains differ with their dS. Small dN/dS, as found between distantly related strains, is attributed to purifying selection against deleterious mutations dominating over mutations that have driven adaptive evolution. Large dN/dS as found in laboratory evolution experiments, is caused by beneficial mutations that quickly arise in large bacterial populations, and, with substantial selective advantages, per generation, can rise to high abundance fast enough that very few synonymous mutations arise in the lineages that take over the population.
A number of studies (including by Lieberman's group) have analyzed large numbers of strains of various dominant human gut species and studied how dN/dS varies. Although between closely related strains the variations are large -- often much larger than attributable to just statistical variations -- a systematic trend from dN/dS around unity or larger for close relatives to dN/dS ~ 0.1 for more distant relatives has been found in enough species that it is natural to conjecture a general explanation.<br /> The conventional explanation is that, for close relatives, the effects of selection over the time since they diverged has not yet purged weakly deleterious mutations that arose by chance -- roughly mutations with sT<1 -- while since the common ancestor of more distantly related strains, there is plenty of time for most of those that arose to have been purged.
Torrillo and Lieberman have carried out an in-depth -- sophisticated and quantitative -- analysis of models of some of the evolutionary processes that shape the dependence of dN/dS on dS -- and hence on their divergence time, T. They first review the purifying selection model and show that -- even ignoring its inability to explain dN/dS > 1 for many closely related pairs -- the model has major problems explaining the crossover from dN/dS somewhat less than unity to much smaller values as dS goes through -- on a logarithmic scale -- the 10^-4 range. The first problem, already seen in the infinite-population-size deterministic model, is that a very large fraction of non-synonymous mutations would have to have deleterious s's in the 10^-5 per generation range to fit the data (and a small fraction effectively neutral). As the s's are naturally expected (at least in the absence of quantitative analysis to the contrary) to be spread out over a wide range on a logarithmic scale of s, this seems implausible. But the authors go further and analyze the effects of fluctuations that occur even in the very large populations: ~ >10^12 bacteria per species in one gut, and 10^10 human guts globally. They show that Muller's ratchet -- the gradual accumulation of weakly deleterious mutations that are not purged by selection - leads to a mutational meltdown with the parameters needed to fit the purifying selection model. In particular, with N_e the "effective population size" that roughly parametrizes the magnitude of stochastic birth-death and transition fluctuations, and U the total mutation rate to such deleterious mutations this occurs for U/s > log(sN_e) which they show would obtain with the fitted parameters.
Torrillo and Lieberman promise an alternate model: that there are a modest number of "loci" at which conditionally beneficial mutations can occur that are beneficial in some individual guts (or other environmental conditions) at some times, but deleterious in other (or the same) gut at other times. With the ancestors of a pair of strains having passed through one too many individuals and transmissions, it is possible for a beneficial mutation to occur and rise in the population, only later to be reverted by the beneficial inverse mutation. With tens of loci at which this can occur, they show that this process could explain the drop of dN/dS from short times -- in which very few such mutations have occurred -- to very long times by which most have flipped back and forth so that a random pair of strains will have the same nucleotide at such sites with 50% probability. Their qualitative analysis of a minimally simple model of this process shows that the bacterial populations are plenty big enough for such specific mutations to occur many times in each individual's gut, and with modest beneficials, to takeover. With a few of these conditionally beneficial mutations or reversions occurring during an individuals lifetime, they get a reasonably quantitative agreement with the dN/dS vs dS data with very few parameters. A key assumption of their model is that genetically exact reversion mutations are far more likely to takeover a gut population -- and spread -- than compensatory mutations which have a similar phenotypic-reversion effect: a mutation that is reverted does not show up in dN, while one that is compensated by another shows up as a two-mutation difference after the environment has changed twice.
Strengths:
The quantitative arguments made against the conventional purifying selection model are highly compelling, especially the consideration of multiple aspects that are usually ignored, including -- crucially -- how Muller's ratchet arises and depends on the realistic and needed-to-fit parameters; the effects of bottlenecks in transmission and the possibility that purifying selection mainly occurs then; and complications of the model of a single deleterious s, to include a distribution of selective disadvantages. Generally, the author's approach of focusing on the simplest models with as few as possible parameters (some roughly known), and then adding in various effects one-by-one, is outstanding and, in being used to analyze environmental microbial data, exceptional.
The reversion model the authors propose and study is a simple general one and they again explore carefully various aspects of it -- including dynamics within and between hosts -- and the consequent qualitative and quantitative effects. Again, the quantitive analysis of almost all aspects is exemplary. Although it is hard to make a compelling guess of the number of loci that are subject to alternating selection on the needed time-scales (years to centuries) they make a reasonable argument for a lower bound in terms of the number of known invertible promoters (that can genetically switch gene expression on and off).
Weaknesses:
The primary weakness of this paper is one that the author's are completely open about: the assumption that, collectively, any of possibly-many compensatory mutations that could phenotypically revert an earlier mutation, are less likely to arise and takeover local populations than the exact specific reversion mutation. While detailed analysis of this is, reasonably enough, beyond the scope of the present paper, more discussion of this issue would add substantially to this work. Quantitatively, the problem is that even a modest number of compensatory mutations occurring as the environmental pressures change could lead to enough accumulation of non-synonymous mutations that they could cause dN/dS to stay large -- easily >1 -- to much larger dS than is observed. If, say, the appropriate locus is a gene, the number of combinations of mutations that are better in each environment would play a role in how large dN would saturate to in the steady state (1/2 of n_loci in the author's model). It is possible that clonal interference between compensatory and reversion mutations would result in the mutations with the largest s -- eg, as mentioned, reversion of a stop codon -- being much more likely to take over, and this could limit the typical number of differences between quite well-diverged strains. However, the reversion and subsequent re-reversion would have to both beat out other possible compensatory mutations -- naively less likely. I recommend that a few sentences in the Discussion be added on this important issue along with comments on the more general puzzle -- at least to this reader! -- as to why there appear to be so little adaptive genetic changes in core genomes on time scales of human lifetimes and civilization.
An important feature of gut bacterial evolution that is now being intensely studied is only mentioned in passing at the end of this paper: horizontal transfer and recombination of core genetic material. As this tends to bring in many more mutations overall than occur in regions of a pair of genomes with asexual ancestry, the effects cannot be neglected. To what extent can this give rise to a similar dependence of dN/dS on dS as seen in the data? Of course, such a picture begs the question as to what sets the low dN/dS of segments that are recombined --- often from genetic distances comparable to the diameter of the species.