- Last 7 days
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4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com 4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com
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for - Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20 - adjacency - web 3 and Blockchain / crypto technology - communities engaged in regeneration and relocalization - tinkering at the edge - missed opportunity - cosmolocal strategy as leverage point - safe and just cross scale translation of earth system boundaries - Tipping Point Festival - Web 4 - Indyweb
Summary adjacency between - web 3 and crypto / Blockchain technology - communities engaged in regeneration and relocalization - tinkering at the edge - missed opportunity - cosmolocal lens and framework as a leverage point for synthesis - cosmolocal projects as leverage points - cross scale translated safe and just earth system boundaries as necessary cosmolocal accounting system - meme: sync global, act local - new relationship - This article explores the untapped potential and leverage point offered by recognising a new adjacency and concomitant synthesis of - globalising Web 3 and crypto/Blockchain technology - communities engaged in regenerative and relocation interventions - The fragmentation between these areas keeps activists working in each respective one - tinkering at the edge - severely constraining their potential impact - This is a case of the whole Berlin car greater than the sun of its parts - By joining forces in a global, strategic and systemic way, each can achieve fast more through their mutual support - A cosmolocal lens offers a perspective and framework that makes joining forces make sense<br /> - Projects that recognize that the adjacency between - the globalizing technologies of web 3 and Blockchains and - interventions at the local community level - offer a significant leverage point to bottom up efforts to drive a rapid transition are themselves a leverage point - In this regard, incorporation of an equitable accounting system such as safe and just earth system boundaries that can be cross scale translated to - bioregional, - city and - community, district and ward scale - are an important cosmolocal component of a system designed for rapid transition - Global bottom up community scale events such as the Tipping Point Festival can help rapidly advocate for a cosmolocal lens, framework and strategy - At the same time, Web 4 technology that's goes beyond decentralising into people-centered can contribute another dimension to humanizing technology
Tags
- Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20
- adjacency - web 3 and Blockchain / crypto technology - communities engaged in regeneration and relocalization - tinkering at the edge - missed opportunity - cosmolocal strategy as leverage point - safe and just cross scale translation of earth system boundaries - Tipping Point Festival - Web 4 - Indyweb
Annotators
URL
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- Dec 2024
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medium.com medium.com
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I feel like sharing with you some of my observations as a frame analyst, as someone who analyzes semantic frames and how they structure a discourse to, in this case, to disempower us and keep us embedded within a conversation that is primarily about the actions of corporations and nation-states and that disengages us from direct grassroots action and taking power into our own hands
for - adjacency / validation - for justifying Tipping Point Festival - TPF - bottom up, grassroots direct action Vs - top down, corporate, policy action - Joe Brewer - framing analysis - using cognitive linguistics
adjacency / validation - between - ustifying Tipping Point Festival - TPF - - bottom up, grassroots direct action<br /> - top down, corporate, policy action<br /> - Joe Brewer - framing analysis - cognitive linguistics - adjacency relationship - We need both bottom up and top down section, but Joe's framing analysis provides an explanation why there isn't more bottom up direct action - It requires a lot of skill to find the leverage points as well as the weakness of people power is lack of money - To awaken the sleeping giant off the commons is the purpose of the Typing Point Festival (TPF)
Tags
Annotators
URL
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- Nov 2024
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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for - climate crisis - Youtube - climate Doomsday 6 years from now - Jerry Kroth - to - climate clock - adjacency - Tipping Point Festival - Indyweb / SRG complexity mapping tool - Integration of many fragmented bottom-up initiatives - The Great Weaving - Cosmolocal organization - Michel Bauwens - Peer-to-Peer Foundation - A third option - Islands of Coherency - Otto Scharmer Presencing Institute - U-labs - Love-based (sacred-based) mini-assemblies interventions to address growing fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - Ending the US / China Cold War - Yanis Varoufakis
YouTube details - title: climate Doomsday 6 years from now - author: Jerry Kroth, pyschologist
summary - Psychologist Jerry Kroth makes a claim that the 1.5 Deg C and 2.0 Deg C thresholds will be reached sooner than expected - due to acceleration of climate change impacts. - He backs up his argument with papers and recent talks of climate thought leaders using their youtube presentations. - This presentation succinctly summarized a lot of the climate news I've been following recently. - It reminded me of the urgency of climate change, my work trying to find a way to integrate the work of the Climate Clock project into other projects. - This work was still incomplete but now I have incentive to complete it.
adjacency - between - Tipping Point Festival - Indyweb / SRG complexity mapping tool - Integration of many fragmented bottom-up initiatives - The Great Weaving - Cosmolocal organization - Michel Bauwens - Peer-to-Peer Foundation - Islands of Coherency - Otto Scharmer - Presencing Institute - U-labs - Love-based (sacred-based) mini-assemblies interventions to address growing fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - Ending the US / China Cold War - Yanis Varoufakis - and many others - adjacency relationship - I have been holding many fragmented projects in my mind and they are all orbiting around the Tipping Point Festival for the past decade. - When Indyweb Alpha is done, - especially with the new Wikinizer update - We can collectively weave all these ideas together into one coherent whole using Stop Reset Go complexity mapping as a plexmarked Mark-In notation - Then apply cascading social tipping point theory to invite each project to a form a global coherent, bottom-up commons-based movement for rapid whole system change - Currently, there are a lot of jigsaw puzzle pieces to put together! - I think this video served as a reminder of the urgency emerged of our situation and it emerged adjacencies and associations between recent ideas I've been annotating, specifically: - Yanis Varoufakis - Need to end the US-led cold war with China due to US felt threat of losing their US dollar reserve currency status - that Trump wants to escalate to the next stage with major tariffs - MIchel Bauwens - Cosmolocal organization as an alternative to current governance systems - Roger Hallam - love-based strategy intervention for mitigating fascism, polarization and the climate crisis - Otto Scharmer - Emerging a third option to democracy - small islands of coherency can unite nonlinearly to have a significant impact - Climate Clock - a visual means to show how much time we have left - It is noteworthy that: - Yanis Varoufakis and Roger Hallam are both articulating a higher Common Human Denominator - creating a drive to come together rather than separate - which requires looking past the differences and into the fundamental similarities that make us human - the Common Human Denominators (CHD) - In both of their respective articles, Yanis Varoufakis and Otto Scharmer both recognize the facade of the two party system - in the backend, it's only ruled by one party - the oligarchs, the party of the elites (see references below) - Once Indyweb is ready, and SRG complexity mapping and sense-making tool applied within Indyweb, we will already be curating all the most current information from all the fragmented projects together in one place regardless of whether any projects wants to use the Indyweb or not - The most current information from each project is already converged, associated and updated here - This makes it a valuable resource for them because it expands the reach of each and every project
to - climate clock - https://hyp.is/R_kJHKGQEe28r-doGn-djg/climateclock.world/ - love-based intervention to address fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - https://hyp.is/wUDpaKsAEe-DM9fteMUtzw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiKWCHAcS7E - ending the US / China cold war - Yanis Varoufakis - https://hyp.is/Yy0juqmrEe-ERhtaafWWHw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao - Cosmolocal coordination of the commons as an alternative to current governance and a leverage point to unite fragmented communities - Michel Bauwens - https://hyp.is/AvtJYqitEe-f_EtI6TJRVg/4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com/p/a-global-history-of-societal-regulation - A third option for democracy - Uniting small islands of coherency in a time of chaos - Otto Scharmer - https://hyp.is/JlLzuKusEe-xkG-YfcRoyg/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b - One party system - oligarchs - Yanis Varoufakis - https://hyp.is/CVXzAKnWEe-PBBcP5GE8TA/www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao - What's missing is a third option (in the two party system) - Otto Scharmer - https://hyp.is/M3S6VKuxEe-pG-Myu6VW1A/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b
Tags
- to - ending the US / China cold war - Yanis Varoufakis
- to - Cosmolocal coordination of the commons as an alternative to current governance and a leverage point to unite fragmented communities - Michel Bauwens
- to - Climate Clock
- to - A third option for democracy - Uniting small islands of coherency in a time of chaos - Otto Scharmer
- adjacency - Tipping Point Festival - Indyweb / SRG complexity mapping tool - Integration of many fragmented bottom-up initiatives - The Great Weaving - Cosmolocal organization - Michel Bauwens - Peer-to-Peer Foundation - A third option - Islands of Coherency - Otto Scharmer Presencing Institute - U-labs - Love-based (sacred-based) mini-assemblies interventions to address growing fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - Ending the US / China Cold War - Yanis Varoufakis
- to - love-based intervention to address fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam
- climate crisis - Youtube - climate Doomsday 6 years from now - Jerry Kroth
Annotators
URL
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- Oct 2024
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reneelertzman.substack.com reneelertzman.substack.com
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for - system change - social gatherings - adjacency - Deep Humanity - Tipping Point Festival - social gathering insights - community conherence
article details - title: Convenings, Cohorts + Communities: Notes on so-called "impact" gatherings - author: Renee Lertzman - publication: substack - date: 2024, Sept 24
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- Jul 2024
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egusphere.copernicus.org egusphere.copernicus.org
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for - social tipping point - 2023 paper - paper details
paper details - title: The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority - author - Jordan Everall - Jonathan. F Donges - Ilona. M. Otto - Preprint date - 20 Nov 2023 - Publication - EGUsphere Preprint Repository
summary - This is a recent 2023 paper that summarizes social tipping point research for fields of interest to me, such as climate change. - I'm reading, looking for any real world experimental validation of social tipping point in climate change - I didn't find any but still interesting
from - search - google - research on complex contagion refutes the 25% social tipping point threshold - https://www.google.com/search?q=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&oq=research+on+complex+contagion+refutes+the+25%25+social+tipping+point+threshold&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQRRhA0gEJMjAyOTRqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 - search results returned of interest - The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to ... - https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2241/
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jamesozden.substack.com jamesozden.substack.com
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I’ll pull out a few key points as to why I think this approach is far too simplistic to be meaningful
for - social tipping point - critique
social tipping point - critique - This is a good critique of the social tipping point 25% threshold applied to complex contagion, as claimed by Centola - Does Centola et al . have any experimental evidence applied to real complex contagion?
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- Dec 2023
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rupertread.net rupertread.net
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What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
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for: key point: alternative COP - breakaway group of nations, quote - alternative COP
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quote
- What is needed is a breakaway group of nations willing to get serious about the climate emergency. Who would join it? Most of the world’s countries, potentially.
- author: Rupert Read
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date: Dec 4, 2021
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comment
- suggestion
- This could very well work. By applying social tipping point theory, a coalition of the willing could potentially accomplish a lot more than a coalition mired in friction.
- There is enough capacity between 100 nation states willing to take far more aggressive measures than what a few petrostates of the COP convention continuously veto that it could bring about a social tipping point.
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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Rupert Read has the best idea I have heard re international climate negotiations: countries that are serious should have their own conference where they collaborate on strong targets, plans, etc. Part of which should be recognising the dangers of remaining reliant on the petrostates, planning to transcend that reliance and sanctioning them
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for: good idea - COP alternative, COP alternative - coalition of the willing, COP alternative - social tipping point, Rupert Read - alternative to COP
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good idea: COP alternative
- This could work based on the principle of social tipping points
- The current COP pits the powerful incumbents of the old system delaying as long as possible rapid system change, these are the conservatives
- This puts the liberals at distinct disadvantage from the conservatives because in a consensus reached agreement, the conservatives can veto any strong and binding language that represents rapid system change
- In an alternative conference where the 100+ nation states are already in agreement, action in this smaller coalition OF THE WILLING, will lead to rapid action.
- This could lead to breaking the threshold of system change via reaching the 25% social tipping point threshold
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question: alternative COP
- If an alternative COP was held, is the nation state the best level to approach?
- What about a city level COP?
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reference
- Rupert Read article on alternative COP
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wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors
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title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse
- author: Manjana Miikoreit
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date: Nov 17, 2022
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abstract
- The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
- understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
- A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
- In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
- climate tipping points and
- ecological regime shifts–
- STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
- Drawing on
- a well-established definition for tipping points, and
- a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
- this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
- (i) premature labeling,
- (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
- (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
- (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
- Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
- Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
- the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
- future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
- Future research should seek to
- identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
- many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
- certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.
- identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
- The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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for: system justification theory, status quo bias
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summary
- Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
- Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
- However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
- system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
- This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies
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global-tipping-points.org global-tipping-points.org
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- for: planetary tipping points, global tipping points, positive tipping points, social tipping points
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- Nov 2023
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cascadeinstitute.org cascadeinstitute.org
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- for: social tipping point - tools, cascade institute, Boolean Causal Loop Analysis, BCLA, Cross-impact balance, CIB, socio-cognitive mapping, cognitive-affective mapping, ideological state-space
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- Sep 2023
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fsu-my.sharepoint.com fsu-my.sharepoint.com
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for: social tipping point, multi-scale competency architecture, MET, major evolutionary transition of individuality
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Title: Using emergence to take social innovation to scale
- Author: Margaret Wheatley and Deborah Frieze
- publisher: The Berkana Institute
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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Social tipping points and physical tipping points are interrelated. With environmental stress, the former could arrive before the latter, and then cascades develop. Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
- for: TPF
- comment
- Hamburg climate futures outlook 2023 report supports need for something on the scale of the planned TPF
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- Aug 2023
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www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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- for: Canadian forest fires, tipping point, forest fire graph, graph - forest fires - Canada,
- comment
- graph that shows the unprecedented forest fires turning forests from carbon sink to carbon source
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tomgreenwood.substack.com tomgreenwood.substack.com
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Without a solid spiritual foundation, humanity may well continue on its path toward self-destruction, whether it be through environmental collapse, nuclear war or Artificial Intelligence gone haywire. On the other hand, if we evolve our culture to value inner work as much as we value outer work, then our individual and collective spiritual wisdom might just catch up with our rapidly advancing technology.
- comment
- critics will argue that such internal paradigm shifts take decades rather than years
- see the paper showing time scales of different types of social tipping points:
- However, what his not been researched is the combination of different types of social tipping points and how specific combinations might actually accelerate action.
- Applying the social tipping point complex contagion findings of Damon Centola to cascading tipping points, where deep inner transformation can play a strategic role, is a possibility worth investigating
- comment
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there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
- for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
- question
- is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
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Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
- for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
- policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
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Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
- for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
- study findings
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- events that attract attention
- opinion polls that aggregate information
- finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
- perserverence
- leaders who persevere even at great cost
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
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- for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
- title
- Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
- authors
- Nikos Nikiforakis
- Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
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title
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- source
- date
- July 31, 2023
- author
- Sonia Graham
- reference
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola
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title
- Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
- authors
- Sirkku Juhola
- Tatiana Filatova
- Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
- Reinhard Mechler
- Jurgen Scheffran
- Pia-Johanna Schweizer
- date
- Sept 21, 2022
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abstract
- Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
- Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
- With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
- While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
- overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
- Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
- This paper brings together three strands of literature -
- social tipping points,
- climate adaptation limits and
- systemic risks,
- which so far have been separate.
- Furthermore, we discuss
- methods and
- models
- used to illustrate the dynamics of
- social and
- adaptation tipping points
- in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
- We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
- which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
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reference
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www.rifs-potsdam.de www.rifs-potsdam.de
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
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reference
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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But it's so essential that we go to this place that our brain gave us a solution. Evolution gave us a solution. And it's possibly one of the most profound perceptual experiences. And it's the experience of awe.
-for: awe, wonder, Deep Humanity, inner transformation, transition, inner/outer transformation, social tipping point, individual tipping point - Awe / wonder (getting in touch with the sacred) is evolutions solution to helping us transition into the unknown - This is in alignment with the essence of the open source Deep Humanity praxis - helping individuals to rediscover the sacred, to transform life back into a living experience of awe and wonder - Deep Humanity's purpose is to rekindle awe so that - we may bring about an individual tipping point, and collectively, - collective tipping point in global society to accelerate the transition out of the polycrisis
...moving from the scared back to the sacred
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping point, social tipping points, STP, Tim Lenton, positive tipping points
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping points, STP
Tags
Annotators
URL
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- Jul 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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theology managed to change right from from the medieval theology
- for: system change, social tipping point
- if theology can change so radically, so too can economics
- for: system change, social tipping point
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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this is 30 years of ipcc Assessments from the third assessment in 2009 all the way to the 1.5 degrees Celsius 00:09:50 assessment a few years back this is the red Embers diagram of confidence in science and what you see for each column is the assessment of risk of irreversible changes and at what 00:10:03 temperature levels 20 years ago at the third assessment the risk was basically assessed as zero because it was set at six degrees Celsius nobody was suggesting we would end up at six degrees but look at the trend line the 00:10:16 more we learn about the planet the more we understand about the coupled interactive Earth system the lower is the temperature at which we put risks of irreversible changes and it's down in 00:10:29 the less than two degrees Celsius range now blinking red so that's where we are
- for: planetary boundaries, tipping points, planetary tipping points
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the Breakthrough here is that for the first time we've been able to put temperature thresholds on the 00:08:44 likely temperatures when we cross the Tipping points that's the color schemes you see in the color coding these five are the ones we really need to be concerned with because they are the first ones on the line at 1.5 degrees 00:08:58 Celsius they're likely to cross their tipping points we're talking here about the green and ice sheet the West Antarctic ice sheet all the tropical coral reef systems home to over 500 million people's livelihood 00:09:11 the Boreal permafrost a breath throwing a permafrost and loss of the barren sea ice
- for tipping point, planetary tipping point
- likely temperature thresholds for breaching planetary tipping points at 1.5 Deg C
- Greenland Ice sheet
- West Antarctica ice sheet
- tropical coral reef system
- boreal permafrost
- Berent sea ice
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping point, STP
- title
- Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
- guest
- Damon Centola
- description
- a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
- comment
- this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis
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ndg.asc.upenn.edu ndg.asc.upenn.edu
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when the size of the committed minority reached~25% of the population, a tipping point wastriggered, and the minority group succeeded inchanging the established social convention.
- Key finding
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- a tipping point was triggered, and the minority group succeeded in changing the established social convention.
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- Key finding
-
- Title
- Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention
- Authors
- Damon Centola
- Joshua Becker
- Devon Brackbill
- Andrea Baronchelli
- Date
- 2018
- Source
- Science 360, 1116-1119 (2018)
- Title
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www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Abstract
- The Buddha taught that everything is
- connected and
- constantly changing.
- These fundamental observations of the world are shared by
- ecology and
- evolution.
- We are living in a time of unprecedented rates of extinction.
- Science provides us with the information that we need to address this extinction crisis.
- However, the problems underlying extinction generally do not result from a lack of scientific understanding,
- but they rather result from an unwillingness to take the needed action.
-
I present mindfulness and meditative aspects of Zen practice that provide the deeper “knowing,” or awareness that we need to inspire action on these problems.
-
comment
- emptiness is interdependency and change
- in Deep Humanity praxis, it is equivalent to
- human INTERbeing and
- human INTERbeCOMing
- The Buddha taught that everything is
-
- Feb 2023
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countercurrents.org countercurrents.org
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Aboard the research ship RV Laurence M. Gould, cruising along Antarctica’s west coast, according to Carlos Moffat, chief scientist, Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Program: “Even as somebody who’s been looking at these changing systems for a few decades, I was taken aback by what I saw, by the degree of warming that I saw… We don’t know how long this is going to last. We don’t fully understand the consequences of this kind of event, but this looks like an extraordinary marine heatwave,”
- Aboard the research ship RV Laurence M. Gould,
- cruising along Antarctica’s west coast, - - Carlos Moffat, chief scientist, Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Program:
- “Even as somebody who’s been looking at these changing systems for a few decades, I was taken aback by what I saw, by the degree of warming that I saw… We don’t know how long this is going to last. We don’t fully understand the consequences of this kind of event, but this looks like an extraordinary marine heatwave”
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Moffat: “It’s very difficult to warm the ocean, and so when we see these conditions, that really speaks to a very intense forcing.”
- Antarctica ocean warning
- extraordinary amount of heat
- in the Ocean
- in order to warm it this much
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There is an extraordinary amount of heat in the Antarctic ocean to warm it up to this degree.
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Question: is it too late? Have we already reached the Antarctic tipping point?
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eprints.soton.ac.uk eprints.soton.ac.uk
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This paper is relevant to understanding
-
Learning
- it introduces me to a number of new useful concepts
- cognitive advantage
- cultural network analysis
- more detailed understanding of memetics
- cultural epidemiology
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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i can use myself as an example here i i consider myself a pretty smart person i'm in grad school i tried to be really analytical my whole 00:03:56 life and yet i showed up at college when i was 19 years old believing that all the supposedly scientific stuff that white nationalists used to support the idea of race being predictive and segregation being 00:04:09 good and all this stupid stuff i totally believed i thought they were right and i thought everybody was just denying it and it took a community of people in college over years to condemn my beliefs to 00:04:22 show me uh kindness to show me real vitriol to be these in these private conversations where we could go over the facts and it took a long time for me thinking i was really smart and analytical to 00:04:35 accept that it was morally wrong that it was ethically wrong
- comment
- Derek Black is an example
- of what it takes to undo deeply culturally conditioned misinformation
- these variables have to be present for that to work
- open mind
- patience
- accurate information
- a caring, patient, informed community
- Derek Black offers a lesson of what is required to depolarize society using social tipping points
- there needs to be scalable education program to reach still open-minded individuals holding opposing views
- to openly and respectfully debate difficult, polarizing issues
- in order to form the wide bridges necessary for social tipping points of complex issues
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penntoday.upenn.edu penntoday.upenn.edu
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real-life situations can be much more complicated, the authors’ model allows for the exact 25 percent tipping point number to change based on circumstances. Memory length is a key variable, and relates to how entrenched a belief or behavior is.
- 25% social tipping point threshold is adjustable
- depending on the variables of the context
- = question - how do we apply this adjustability for complex contagion such as climate change norms?
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“And if they’re just below a tipping point, their efforts will fail. But remarkably, just by adding one more person, and getting above the 25 percent tipping point, their efforts can have rapid success in changing the entire population’s opinion.
- going from just below 25% to just above 25% results in a dramatic change in adoption of a new norm
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When a minority group pushing change was below 25 percent of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25 percent, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and quickly a majority of the population adopted the new norm.
- = 25% Social Tipping Point
- A committed minority group pushing for change just below 25% of the total group population does not succeed
- but when the committed minority is just above 25%,
- abrupt change in group dynamics quickly causes a majority of the population to adopt the new norm
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www.google.com www.google.com
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06:06Weak Ties
- = weak ties
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25:13Complex Contagions
- = complex contagion
- example: climate change norms
- = complex contagion
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- Jan 2023
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www.complexityexplorer.org www.complexityexplorer.org
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Semantic leadership Extent to which word usage by one entity is subsequently adopted by others. Specifically, Klein measures how often novel semantic usage in a given newspaper is mirrored by other newspapers. When a newspaper is a semantic leader, its semantic usage better predicts the later usage of that word in other newspapers compared to those other newspapers' own, earlier usage of the word.
How might this leadership happen within the social epidemic view of Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point framework?
- the law of the few,
- the stickiness factor, and
- the power of context
and with respect to mavens, connectors, and salespeople?
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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16 tipping elements the large biophysical systems that we have scientific evidence that the regulates 00:01:23 the state of the entire climate system on Earth nine of these 16 are showing signs of instability push them too far and they will shift over from supporting Humanity 00:01:34 to starting to undermine Humanity four of these are showing scientific evidence of now being at risk already at 1.5 degrees Celsius
!- 16 tp elements : interconnected global climate system
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we're taking colossal risks with the future of civilization on Earth We're degrading life support system that we all depend on we're actually pushing 00:00:57 the entire Earth system to a point of destabilization pushing Earth outside of the state that has support civilization since we left the last ice age 10 000 years ago this requires a transformation to safe 00:01:11 and just Earth system boundaries for the whole world economy
!- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.
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humansandnature.org humansandnature.org
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The posture of democratic citizenship is avowal of rights and obligations of membership in a civic community. The rationale for this is the moral and political goodness of a civic way of living and the shared promise of human self-realization through interdependence. As such it is the exemplary, most inclusive form of membership; it is a precondition for the sustainability in the modern secular era of other expressions of membership in our lives—social, economic, kinship, familial, and intimate.[17] Again, citizenship avows—makes a vow, takes on a trust—on behalf of a future of moral and political potential toward which it is reasonable to strive. Citizenship is iterative and ongoing; it provides continuity and provokes innovation; each generation of democratic citizens begins a new story of the demos and continues an ongoing one.[18]
!- key finding : citizenship is a trusteeship - in which the individual takes on responsibility to participate in upholding the mutually agreed principles and promises leading to collective human self-realization - the individual works with others to collective realize this dream which affects all individuals within the group
!- implement : TPF / DH / SRG -implement this education program globally as part of Stop Reset Go / Deep Humanity training that recognizes the individual collective entanglement and include in the Tipping Point Festival as well
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- Jun 2022
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Those communities that reject business as usual and cut their energy spending and all the materialist values that go with it, just might survive the long emergency and write a different ending to this story.
Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.
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right now we're not being honest with each other about our values and if that's happening then we cannot form norms you can't design norms they happen 00:47:46 out of human action not human design but they only emerge when there is a real consensus about our shared values and so we've got to get back to that i mean it seems almost like like self-evident and we'll duh but like 00:47:59 if if we're going to continue to self-silence or even lie about our beliefs like the result are going to be collective illusions at scale and whole societies can be taken down by those and listen it 00:48:11 would something like a free society living in a democracy like we take that for granted that is a blip in human history the idea that it can't disappear overnight is silly it can and it will 00:48:23 and it would be one thing if it disappeared because privately we collectively gave up on that experiment right but it's a tragedy if it disappears not because of 00:48:34 private change in values but because of collective illusions and that's that's what for me felt like the urgency to write the book right like that it just felt like things were spinning out of control 00:48:46 and yet we have more data on private opinion in america than probably anybody else i would argue um and i can tell you it's just not true right so i think that's both there's both a dangerous aspect to 00:48:58 illusions but also a hopeful one you know because history has shown us that if you recognize the illusion and you take an effort to dismantle it social change can happen at a scale and pace that would seem unimaginable 00:49:10 otherwise well i can't think of any other way to end in that message so thank you todd so much for this marathon you did with me and two parts thank you we obviously have so much shared values and we're not 00:49:22 as divided as people tell us we are [Laughter] but but now we know why right now we know why it feels that way and if we if we can recognize that we really can no longer trust our brain to accurately 00:49:36 read group consensus then we can get back to this it never really mattered right be who you are learn to be authentic um discover your real self and and work really hard to be congruent between your 00:49:48 private self and your public self the rest takes care of itself
Exponential change can happen if social tipping points are triggered by a few influencers have a change of heart because they have become educated on how the collective illusion operations, and how congruency of these few influencers can cause exponential change.
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it's essential and i just love the idea of setting an example for others you know 00:44:40 that's that's that's the way out of this trap is you start doing that and then other people in your group start doing it and then all of a sudden your group's the whole illusion breaks down the emperor has no clothes 00:44:53 or the emperor has clothes the effort does have clothes eventually eventually guess what i'm trying to say eventually yeah what's great about illusions is that they're powerful when they're enforced but they're fragile because 00:45:04 they're social lies right like like you don't want it to be true you wish it weren't true and so what you're really looking for is is wait a minute like so for some of us we just need one 00:45:15 other person to speak up to give us the the the strength to do the same other people need more but what you see is once you start getting the crack in the illusion it affects what we call like bandwagon 00:45:28 change right like it'll just swerve quickly and suddenly it looks like almost overnight the group has shifted its view so whenever you see stuff um it's funny in politics they call it momentum there's no such thing as momentum that's not what that is that is 00:45:41 that is that is an illusion where people's private behavior is like oh wait a minute this is like i can now say what i really think right i feel comfortable saying what i really think um so when you see like sort of exponential change 00:45:53 in public opinion like that's usually the that's usually that there's an illusion underneath there um because if people privately believe something it is very hard to change that and so you know doing that is like one off right i have 00:46:05 to change your mind or change someone else's mind and so you'll usually see slow linear growth or change in in public opinion when you see it change really quickly like it did with marriage equality marriage equality the public 00:46:17 approval for that i mean it's unreal since what since 2003 to today it's basically flipped in terms of its its acceptance like that doesn't happen if privately most people were against it it just doesn't 00:46:30 such a good point so much the reason why it's so hard is because like the oxytocin bonding mechanism is run so deep in our dna and our biology and and overriding that is not easy 00:46:42 because once we feel this social trust we we can lie you know we can we'll do anything well i cheat steal for our in group
One of the key triggers for social tipping points is shifting the values of influential people under the spell of collective illusion from incongruency to congruency.
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- May 2022
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www.usmcu.edu www.usmcu.edu
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In 2022, the focus is exploring and envisioning the hyper-response and embarking on this mission. It will involve engaging and energizing people, analysis, planning, and some early actions. The “E” in PLAN E stands for “Earth,” “everyone,” “everything,” and “everywhere.”
The global, open access Tipping Point Festival can be launched as a zero marginal cost festival (ZMCF) or a netfest for bottom-up, rapid whole system change to synchronize the ordinary citizens of the globe to deal with the hyperthreat.
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Design of a hyper-response will be dependent on a comprehensive strategic planning process being enacted and ongoing discourse and revision. This strategic concept focuses on phase 1 and provides introductory ideas for phase 2.
The public Indyweb, which supports symmathesy, deep conversation, adjacent association space and private as well as publicly owned data can have a force multiplier effect by massive amounts of discoverable knowledge. If knowledge is what constrains good decisions, then discoverability of salient knowledge can lead to better decisions and better actions.
Incorporating a cascading, iterative, recursive Social Tipping Point (STP) strategy is also highly salient and can accelerate the viral spread of scalable system change through the global population.
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Its success hinges on not only communication of the problem but also the capacity for humans to undertake synchronized action toward the same goal. Coordination, cooperation, teamwork, and leadership skills become significant to survival capacity.
A global syncrhonizing event such as a regularly held Tipping Point Festival (TPF) to promote and accelerate social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources amongst ordinary citizens and an open wisdom commons, open knowledge commons, open research commons for massive open online collaboration at zero marginal cost is what is required to support this. It would allow global syncrhronization and high efficacy discoverability of openly shared knowledge and solutions.and rapid dissemination and localized clean production for clean provisioning systems appropriate to each community on the planet. Such a system we have tentatively called the Indyweb, where data is privately owned and secure and any data made public is stored immutably. Indyweb becomes an asset owned by humanity itself, with no centralized authority claiming ownership. The technology now exists to make this feasible.
Tags
- Indyweb
- TPF
- social tipping point
- Tipping Point Festival
- ZMCF
- netfest
- zero marginal cost festival
- STP
Annotators
URL
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- Mar 2022
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www.fastcompany.com www.fastcompany.com
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Mass protests against Russia’s aggression combined with existing political pressure to move more quickly on climate change might lead to new policies to do yet more.
The time is ripe for a converged march and to launch SRG Tipping Point Festival.
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- Jan 2022
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www.monbiot.com www.monbiot.com
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As the paper notes, a large body of work suggests that “the power of small groups comes not from their authority or wealth, but from their commitment to the cause”.
What does paper author Damon Centola think about competing minorities?...who will win out to cause the tipping point?
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- Nov 2021
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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i think the focus was very much on energy supply and to a limited extent on things like um yeah technologies and like vehicle 01:00:07 technologies for example but um much much less in terms of getting people to particularly in developed countries to use less energy and to change diet and to travel less and fly less and all these these things and i think part of 01:00:19 that and it is also reflected in the fact that it was fairly much absent in the uk's net zero strategy is that it is seen as being politically difficult that it might be a you know it might mean that they that politicians lose votes that 01:00:33 it's just too difficult to get people to change their behavior that it's threatening that it might mean lower standards of living um in developed countries etc so i think kind of it's still it's still seen as something and that that was quite explicit i think in 01:00:45 the forward to the uk strategy um so i think in terms of how we move beyond that that's that's difficult but i think it is about reframing behavior change and demand demand management in 01:00:58 much more positive terms to say this isn't a threat there are actually opportunities there are opportunities to improve people's health and well-being to create green jobs to reskill people in new sectors and 01:01:09 and so on and it is not about you know reducing uh quality of life or well-being it's not about people losing jobs etc so this is i think there's a job here to kind of reframe it in terms of those those opportunities and those 01:01:22 co-benefits so that would be my my initial thought
Reframing loss as gain is one strategy worth exploring for behavior change. Also explore social tipping points of complex contagion.
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www.yesmagazine.org www.yesmagazine.org
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social change typically spreads as ‘complex contagions,’ requiring multiple sources of social reinforcement to induce adoption,”
Climate change requires large investment in behavior change. It is a case of complex contagion, not simple contagion. Wide bridges are the key to bringing about social tipping points of complex contagion.
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www.monbiot.com www.monbiot.com
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Social convention, which has for so long worked against us, can if flipped become our greatest source of power, normalising what now seems radical and weird. If we can simultaneously trigger a cascading regime shift in both technology and politics, we might stand a chance. It sounds like a wild hope. But we have no choice. Our survival depends on raising the scale of civil disobedience until we build the greatest mass movement in history, mobilising the 25% who can flip the system.
This is the core philosophy behind Stop Reset Go, but NOT NECESSARILY just in the direction of civil disobedience. To invest only in that is to put all our eggs in one basket that top down actors will be pressured beyond a certain threshold. It may happen, it may not, or it may just take too long. We must diversify and also invest in systematized bottom-up efforts.
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Another paper explored the possibility that the Fridays for Future climate protests could trigger this kind of domino dynamics. It showed how, in 2019, Greta Thunberg’s school strike snowballed into a movement that led to unprecedented electoral results for Green parties in several European nations. Survey data revealed a sharp change of attitudes, as people began to prioritise the environmental crisis. Fridays for Future came close, the researchers suggest, to pushing the European political system into a “critical state”. It was interrupted by the pandemic, and the tipping has not yet happened. But witnessing the power, the organisation and the fury of the movements gathered in Glasgow, I suspect the momentum is building again.
The space is ripe for interventions that can facilitate social tipping points.
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www.annualreviews.org www.annualreviews.org
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A final cluster gathers lenses that explore phenomena that are arguably more elastic and with the potential to both indirectly maintain and explicitly reject and reshape existing norms. Many of the topics addressed here can be appropriately characterized as bottom-up, with strong and highly diverse cultural foundations. Although they are influenced by global and regional social norms, the expert framing of institutions, and the constraints of physical infrastructure (from housing to transport networks), they are also domains of experimentation, new norms, and cultural change. Building on this potential for either resisting or catalyzing change, the caricature chosen here is one of avian metaphor and myth: the Ostrich and Phoenix cluster. Ostrich-like behavior—keeping heads comfortably hidden in the sand—is evident in different ways across the lenses of inequity (Section 5.1), high-carbon lifestyles (Section 5.2), and social imaginaries (Section 5.3), which make up this cluster. Yet, these lenses also point to the power of ideas, to how people can thrive beyond dominant norms, and to the possibility of rapid cultural change in societies—all forms of transformation reminiscent of the mythological phoenix born from the ashes of its predecessor. It is conceivable that this cluster could begin to redefine the boundaries of analysis that inform the Enabler cluster, which in turn has the potential to erode the legitimacy of the Davos cluster. The very early signs of such disruption are evident in some of the following sections and are subsequently elaborated upon in the latter part of the discussion.
The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.
Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/
The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.
The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.
There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.
A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__
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- May 2020
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link.aps.org link.aps.org
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Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O. A., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), 042311. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311
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