Particular expert-based claims about the climate future, for example, rely on an epistemic trust in numbers (Ezrahi, 1990; Porter, 1996) and computer models that solidified over decades (Edwards, 1996, 2010).
for - climate futures - based on numbers - alienate a large percentage of the population - become ineffective
climate futures imagined through climate modelling travel sequentially between the desks of expert communities and the IPCC, into the political sphere of the UNFCCC – leading to particular, often narrowly technocratized, imaginaries about possible climate futures (Oomen, 2019; Swyngedouw, 2011).
for - example - imagined futures - failure of puersuasiveness of climate models
we need to reframe away from climate change and reframe toward ecological crisis or ecological collapse, focus on ecosystems. We need to focus our energy on grassroots organizing and local efforts to restore the health of ecosystems, which does change economics, it does change politics, does change all those things
for -❓- not EITHER / OR but AND - climate crisis - community engagement strategy - futures - backcasting from 2030
❓- not EITHER / OR but AND - not - either top down climate action OR - bottom up climate action, - but both - top down climate action AND - bottom up climate action
My belief is that societies cannot organize effectively to cope with the impacts of climate change without a shared understanding of the future that awaits.
quote - shared futures - climate crisis and appropriate language - (quote below)
there are sort of 00:17:41 two broad um programs or ideas that deal with this or that try to engage with this issue they have pockets of support 00:17:52 one is the idea of a green New Deal or a global Green New Deal and the other one is degrowth and and I don't think that either of those work for different reasons
for: plan B, climate futures, dystopian future, civilization collapse
title: If We’ve Lost the Climate War, What’s Plan B?
date: Nov 22, 2023
summary
Social tipping points and physical tipping points are interrelated. With environmental stress, the former could arrive before the latter, and then cascades develop. Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023: https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
What is the culture of the future?
In the first edition of the Hamburg Climate Fu-tures Outlook published in 2021
= First Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2021)
= Second Edition of Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook (2023)
Lacking thefeasibility of a robust probabilistic assessment, wehave developed an alternative framework to assessthe plausibility of climate futures (Chapter 2).
based on present knowledge of social drivers andphysical processe
climate futures based upon: - social drivers - physical processes
Hamburg Climate FuturesOutlook
= Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023
Among the many possible climatic futures, not allare plausible.
a big setback for the Republican-led states that have been suing the president over the metric, known as the social cost of carbon: a measure, in dollars, of how much damage results from emitting 1 ton of carbon dioxide. Being able to discuss the damage in terms of a precise dollar amount is important because it allows policymakers to show when the benefits of preventing global warming are greater than the costs. At some point it just becomes cheaper to switch to sustainable systems instead of coping with all the wildfires, floods, droughts, and heat waves that result from unsustainable systems.
The idea of social cost of carbon (SCC) is fascinating: seemingly it aims to make the social costs of climate crisis objective by giving them a price tag. But then it becomes clear that the price tag depends on political / value judgements concerning the future, on which the idea of "discounting" depends.