- Jan 2024
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www.repubblica.it www.repubblica.it
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We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
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for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points
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quote: Johan Rockstrom
- We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
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- Dec 2023
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wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors
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title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse
- author: Manjana Miikoreit
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date: Nov 17, 2022
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abstract
- The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
- understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
- A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
- In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
- climate tipping points and
- ecological regime shifts–
- STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
- Drawing on
- a well-established definition for tipping points, and
- a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
- this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
- (i) premature labeling,
- (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
- (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
- (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
- Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
- Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
- the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
- future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
- Future research should seek to
- identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
- many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
- certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.
- identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
- The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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for: system justification theory, status quo bias
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summary
- Supporting their hypotheses, the authors identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification.
- Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs.
- However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that
- system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
- This is a very important finding and could be used to develop more effective social tipping point strategies
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- Aug 2023
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tomgreenwood.substack.com tomgreenwood.substack.com
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Without a solid spiritual foundation, humanity may well continue on its path toward self-destruction, whether it be through environmental collapse, nuclear war or Artificial Intelligence gone haywire. On the other hand, if we evolve our culture to value inner work as much as we value outer work, then our individual and collective spiritual wisdom might just catch up with our rapidly advancing technology.
- comment
- critics will argue that such internal paradigm shifts take decades rather than years
- see the paper showing time scales of different types of social tipping points:
- However, what his not been researched is the combination of different types of social tipping points and how specific combinations might actually accelerate action.
- Applying the social tipping point complex contagion findings of Damon Centola to cascading tipping points, where deep inner transformation can play a strategic role, is a possibility worth investigating
- comment
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there is a critical tipping threshold of 35% of the population, for plausible distributions of risk/conformity preferences and expectations.
- for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
- question
- is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?
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Can policy promote beneficial norm change? The model suggests that effective interventions lower the tipping threshold.
- for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
- policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds
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Two factors consistently helped hasten beneficial change in our study.
- for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
- study findings
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- events that attract attention
- opinion polls that aggregate information
- finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
- perserverence
- leaders who persevere even at great cost
- common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
- Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
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- for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
- title
- Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
- authors
- Nikos Nikiforakis
- Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
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title
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- source
- date
- July 31, 2023
- author
- Sonia Graham
- reference
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www.rifs-potsdam.de www.rifs-potsdam.de
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
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reference
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping point, social tipping points, STP, Tim Lenton, positive tipping points
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping points, STP
Tags
Annotators
URL
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- Jul 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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- for: social tipping point, STP
- title
- Creating Change: How to Make Big Things Happen
- guest
- Damon Centola
- description
- a very clear exposition of how complex contagion works and what must be done to spread complex behavior change
- comment
- this is particularly important for rapid whole system change and mobilizing a bottom-up movement to deal with our current polycrisis
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ndg.asc.upenn.edu ndg.asc.upenn.edu
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when the size of the committed minority reached~25% of the population, a tipping point wastriggered, and the minority group succeeded inchanging the established social convention.
- Key finding
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- a tipping point was triggered, and the minority group succeeded in changing the established social convention.
- when the size of the committed minority reached
~25% of the population,
- Key finding
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- Title
- Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention
- Authors
- Damon Centola
- Joshua Becker
- Devon Brackbill
- Andrea Baronchelli
- Date
- 2018
- Source
- Science 360, 1116-1119 (2018)
- Title
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- Feb 2023
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www.academia.edu www.academia.edu
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And a theory of "multilayered social worlds", when fully developed, can be a helpful tool in understanding why, in modern Europe, certain phenomena became common enough to catch the attention of physicians, scientists, artists and philosophers. In a current unpublished work, STP suggests that, if the logic of affinity is properly conceptualized, both in terms of its essentially paraconsistent properties as a social logic and in terms of its historical presentation throughout very different societies, one arrives at the conclusion that modern families – in the sense of nuclear familiar units composed of heterossexual parents and their children – do not logically form a basic "atom of kinship" in Levi-Strauss' sense. That is, in modern capitalist societies, the logic of affinity is not composed in such a way as to form a world of its own, it has little synthetic power. In fact, the logic of affinity is most consistent within capitalist worlds at the points where it is tasked with "stitching together" dynamics dominated by property and value – at the point of contact between family and the production of independent adult workers, or at the intersection between affinity and the State, where the nation-form is born, etc. Because capitalist structures do not respect the internal logic of kinship – which would allow people to socially map not only those that are part of their families and those who are not, but also those that occupy strangely indeterminate positions in this social fabric – it is up to individuals themselves, as they grow up, to develop ways to supplement to this fractured logic. This is what Lacan called the "individual myth of the neurotic": how, in order to become persons , we must supplement our social existence before other people with an invisible partnership with an "Other", a figure that helps us determine how to distinguish these indeterminate elements of affinity logic and that capitalist sociality does not help to propagate in a consistent and shared way.
Posits the necessity, imposed by capitalism, of an individual myth of the neurotic (Lacan) as a problem that psychoanalysis was created to solve.
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- Jun 2022
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Milkoreit et al. (23) propose a common definition of social tipping points (STPs) as points “within an SES at which a small quantitative change inevitably triggers a non-linear change in the social component of the SES, driven by self-reinforcing positive-feedback mechanisms, that inevitably and often irreversibly lead to a qualitatively different state of the social system.” There are historical examples of dynamic social spreading effects leading to a large self-amplification of small interventions: For example, the writings of one man, Martin Luther, injected through newly available printing technology into a public ready for such change, triggered the worldwide establishment of Protestant churches (24). An example in the field of climate policy is the introduction of tariffs, subsidies, and mandates to incentivize the growth of renewable energy production. This has led to a substantial system response in the form of mutually reinforcing market growth and exponential technology cost improvement (25, 26).In this paper, we examine a number of potential “social tipping elements” (STEs) for decarbonization (27, 28) that represent specific subdomains of the planetary social-economic system. Tipping of these subsystems could be triggered by “social tipping interventions” (STIs) that could contribute to rapid transition of the world system into a state of net zero anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Accronyms:
STP - social tipping point STE - social tipping element STI - social tipping intervention
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right now we're not being honest with each other about our values and if that's happening then we cannot form norms you can't design norms they happen 00:47:46 out of human action not human design but they only emerge when there is a real consensus about our shared values and so we've got to get back to that i mean it seems almost like like self-evident and we'll duh but like 00:47:59 if if we're going to continue to self-silence or even lie about our beliefs like the result are going to be collective illusions at scale and whole societies can be taken down by those and listen it 00:48:11 would something like a free society living in a democracy like we take that for granted that is a blip in human history the idea that it can't disappear overnight is silly it can and it will 00:48:23 and it would be one thing if it disappeared because privately we collectively gave up on that experiment right but it's a tragedy if it disappears not because of 00:48:34 private change in values but because of collective illusions and that's that's what for me felt like the urgency to write the book right like that it just felt like things were spinning out of control 00:48:46 and yet we have more data on private opinion in america than probably anybody else i would argue um and i can tell you it's just not true right so i think that's both there's both a dangerous aspect to 00:48:58 illusions but also a hopeful one you know because history has shown us that if you recognize the illusion and you take an effort to dismantle it social change can happen at a scale and pace that would seem unimaginable 00:49:10 otherwise well i can't think of any other way to end in that message so thank you todd so much for this marathon you did with me and two parts thank you we obviously have so much shared values and we're not 00:49:22 as divided as people tell us we are [Laughter] but but now we know why right now we know why it feels that way and if we if we can recognize that we really can no longer trust our brain to accurately 00:49:36 read group consensus then we can get back to this it never really mattered right be who you are learn to be authentic um discover your real self and and work really hard to be congruent between your 00:49:48 private self and your public self the rest takes care of itself
Exponential change can happen if social tipping points are triggered by a few influencers have a change of heart because they have become educated on how the collective illusion operations, and how congruency of these few influencers can cause exponential change.
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it's essential and i just love the idea of setting an example for others you know 00:44:40 that's that's that's the way out of this trap is you start doing that and then other people in your group start doing it and then all of a sudden your group's the whole illusion breaks down the emperor has no clothes 00:44:53 or the emperor has clothes the effort does have clothes eventually eventually guess what i'm trying to say eventually yeah what's great about illusions is that they're powerful when they're enforced but they're fragile because 00:45:04 they're social lies right like like you don't want it to be true you wish it weren't true and so what you're really looking for is is wait a minute like so for some of us we just need one 00:45:15 other person to speak up to give us the the the strength to do the same other people need more but what you see is once you start getting the crack in the illusion it affects what we call like bandwagon 00:45:28 change right like it'll just swerve quickly and suddenly it looks like almost overnight the group has shifted its view so whenever you see stuff um it's funny in politics they call it momentum there's no such thing as momentum that's not what that is that is 00:45:41 that is that is an illusion where people's private behavior is like oh wait a minute this is like i can now say what i really think right i feel comfortable saying what i really think um so when you see like sort of exponential change 00:45:53 in public opinion like that's usually the that's usually that there's an illusion underneath there um because if people privately believe something it is very hard to change that and so you know doing that is like one off right i have 00:46:05 to change your mind or change someone else's mind and so you'll usually see slow linear growth or change in in public opinion when you see it change really quickly like it did with marriage equality marriage equality the public 00:46:17 approval for that i mean it's unreal since what since 2003 to today it's basically flipped in terms of its its acceptance like that doesn't happen if privately most people were against it it just doesn't 00:46:30 such a good point so much the reason why it's so hard is because like the oxytocin bonding mechanism is run so deep in our dna and our biology and and overriding that is not easy 00:46:42 because once we feel this social trust we we can lie you know we can we'll do anything well i cheat steal for our in group
One of the key triggers for social tipping points is shifting the values of influential people under the spell of collective illusion from incongruency to congruency.
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- May 2022
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www.usmcu.edu www.usmcu.edu
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Design of a hyper-response will be dependent on a comprehensive strategic planning process being enacted and ongoing discourse and revision. This strategic concept focuses on phase 1 and provides introductory ideas for phase 2.
The public Indyweb, which supports symmathesy, deep conversation, adjacent association space and private as well as publicly owned data can have a force multiplier effect by massive amounts of discoverable knowledge. If knowledge is what constrains good decisions, then discoverability of salient knowledge can lead to better decisions and better actions.
Incorporating a cascading, iterative, recursive Social Tipping Point (STP) strategy is also highly salient and can accelerate the viral spread of scalable system change through the global population.
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Its success hinges on not only communication of the problem but also the capacity for humans to undertake synchronized action toward the same goal. Coordination, cooperation, teamwork, and leadership skills become significant to survival capacity.
A global syncrhonizing event such as a regularly held Tipping Point Festival (TPF) to promote and accelerate social tipping points, leverage points and idling resources amongst ordinary citizens and an open wisdom commons, open knowledge commons, open research commons for massive open online collaboration at zero marginal cost is what is required to support this. It would allow global syncrhronization and high efficacy discoverability of openly shared knowledge and solutions.and rapid dissemination and localized clean production for clean provisioning systems appropriate to each community on the planet. Such a system we have tentatively called the Indyweb, where data is privately owned and secure and any data made public is stored immutably. Indyweb becomes an asset owned by humanity itself, with no centralized authority claiming ownership. The technology now exists to make this feasible.
Tags
Annotators
URL
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- Jan 2020
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stylo.ecrituresnumeriques.ca stylo.ecrituresnumeriques.ca
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Titre :
BON : il faut synthétiser et avoir une écriture plus efficace je sais en mode "mon hypothèse de recherche est gnagna gna" Mais je voudrais avoir tes retours déjà sur les idées principales.
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