Villanueva, Cynthia, Stevi Ibonie, Emily Jensen, Lucca Eloy, Jordi Quoidbach, Angela Bryan, Sidney D’Mello, and June Gruber. ‘Emotion Differentiation and Bipolar Risk in Emerging Adults Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic’. PsyArXiv, 19 February 2022. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/xya43.

While this is interesting analysis, I wonder if it's close to the best data we have on this.

Personally as a bipolar person, I can say this definitely correlates with my experience! You could maybe add my experience to the data: + Severe mania - 0-3 hours avg (often in involuntary naps) + Hypomania - 1-5 hours avg (w/ all-nighters) + Elevated/sub-hypomania - 5 hours avg + Stable - 6-8 hours avg + Depressive - 8-10 hours avg + Severe depression - 10-16 hours avg

polarity index

McIntyre, R. S., Lui, L. M., Rosenblat, J. D., Ho, R., Gill, H., Mansur, R. B., Teopiz, K., Liao, Y., Lu, C., Subramaniapillai, M., Nasri, F., & Lee, Y. (2021). Suicide reduction in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons informing national prevention strategies for suicide reduction. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 01410768211043186. https://doi.org/10.1177/01410768211043186

Hypomania/Mania Differentiation:

duration:

• hypomanic episodes >4 days vs. mania >1 week

intensity: no display of psychotic symptoms i.e.

• delusions
• hallucinations

and does not cause SIGNIFICANT impact on the individiuals ability to socialise

This is exactly what I expected. In fact, I would have been extremely surprised if this weren't the case. I just google "schizophrenia bipolar genes" expecting this result.

I had the thought a few minutes ago, and google it right away. This means that I wasn't able to write it down as a prediction. Nonetheless, I think this points in favor of my prediction abilities. My confidence was inordinately high (i.e. on the order of 90%) even before collecting any evidence. Compare that to other high confidence beliefs (e.g. CFS is caused partly by blood volume), for which I have confidence on the order of 95%, but I have good evidence for that belief. Thus, this instance provides data that my confidence meter is reliable. I'll continue to make an effort to write down predictions ahead of time (to eliminate publication bias).

There are several reasons I suspected this would be the case. Firstly, personal subjective experience; that's what gave me the first inkling. Secondly, the connection of mania with long periods of sleeplessness. If the sleep deprivation causes the mania, then bipolar may be a sleep disorder. This is backed up by the sleep deprivation therapy for depression. Additionally, the connection of depression to sleep disturbance implies that sleep may also be causal in low mood. Furthermore, given that schizophrenia is associated with disrupted sleep spindles, it follows that the two sleep disorders, namely schizophrenia and bipolar, may be closely related genetically (via sleep regulating genes). Moreover, I knew that schizophrenia and bipolar were two of the most heritable psychological conditions; given that both are highly genetic and both involve sleep, it follows that they would likely be closely linked. Finally, I know mania can be associated with delusions, so there are several symptom crossovers. All in all, it is highly surprising that I have not seen this discussed before. Neither documentaries on schizophrenia nor documentaries on manic depression/bipolar have mentioned a link. Nor have studies I've read (admittedly few on this particular topic) mentioned anything of the sort. I shall have to look through the literature to see if this idea has been around for long.

Youngstrom, E. A., Ph.D., Hinshaw, S. P., Stefana, A., Chen, J., Michael, K., Van Meter, A., … Vieta, E. (2020, April 20). Working with Bipolar Disorder During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Both Crisis and Opportunity. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wg4bj