https://web.archive.org/web/20241115134320/https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached?triedRedirect=true Gary Marcus in a told-you-so piece on algogens hitting a development wall, same as the other piece by Erik Hoel on models plateauing.

https://web.archive.org/web/20241115134446/https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/ai-progress-has-plateaued-at-gpt Erik Hoel notices that LLM development is stalling at the GPT-4 level. No big jumps in recent releases, across the various vendors. Additional scaling is not bringing results. Notice the graph, might be interesting to see an update in a few months. Mentions overfitting, to benchmarks as in teaching to a specific test.