- Jul 2024
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there was a paper that came out a few years ago showing that five degrees at the pace we're doing would be 00:40:13 is like easily sufficient to reproduce some of these catastrophes in Earth history
for - climate crisis - 5 deg C could reproduce similar levels of catastrophes as those in early earth history
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www.mdpi.com www.mdpi.com
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If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.
for - quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce
quote - exceeding 2 Deg C may result in a billion deaths - Joshua Pearce - (see below) - If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, - mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans - through anthropogenic global warming, - which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter.
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- Jan 2024
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www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com
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“A second Trump term is game over for the climate — really!”
for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - a Second Trump presidency - polycrisis - politics and climate crisis - climate mitigation strategy - voting in 2024 U.S. election - adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting
adjacency - between - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Trump's presidency is existential threat to humanity - Gen Z voting - 2024 election - adjacency statement - Michael Mann's quote " A second Trump term is game over for the climate - really" applies to the 2024 election if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. - Trumps dismal environmental record in his 2016 to 2020 term speaks for itself. He would do something similiar in 2025 if he were the president. G - Given there are only 5 years and 172 days before we hit the dangerous threshold of burning through all the carbon budget for humanity, - https://climateclock.world/ - It is questionable whether Biden's government alone can do enough, but certainly if Trump won the 2024 election, his term in office would create a regression severe enough to put the Paris Climate goal of staying within 1.5 Deg C out of reach, and risk triggering major planetary tipping points - A Biden government is evidence-based and believes in anthropogenic climate change and is already taking measures to mitigate it. A Trump government is not evidence-based and is supported by incumbent fossil fuel industry so does not have the interest of the U.S. population nor all of humanity at heart. - Hence, the 2024 U.S. election can really determine the fate of humanity. - Gen Z can play a critical role for humanity by voting against a government that would, in leading climate scientists Michael Mann's words, be game over for a stable climate, and therefore put humanity and unimaginable risk. - Gen Z can swing the vote to a government willing to deal with the climate crisis over one in climate denial so voting activists need to be alerted to this and create the right messaging to reach Gen Z - https://hyp.is/LOud7sBBEe6S0D8itLHw1A/circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024
Tags
- climate mitigation strategy - voting in the 2024 U.S. election
- polycrisis - political crisis - climate crisis
- quote - A second Trump presidency - climate disaster
- quote - Michael Mann
- adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting
- polycrisis - politics - climate crisis
Annotators
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www.repubblica.it www.repubblica.it
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now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
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for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - uncertainty at 1.5 Deg C for years
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quote: Johan Rockstrom
- now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
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- Dec 2023
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www.resilience.org www.resilience.org
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for: climate solutions - low economic growth, Jason Hickel,
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climateuncensored.com climateuncensored.com
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For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
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for: 1.5 Deg C target - 50/50 chance
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comment
- What most people don't recognize and pay attention to is 50/50 chance that is part of the 1.5 Deg C target.
- The world is up in arms about the 1.5 Deg C target when it ONLY GIVES US A 50/50 CHANCE!
- These are not great odds! In fact, THESE ODDS ARE TERRIBLE! What if you were given those chances in your cancer treatment? You would be concerned, wouldn't you?
- So what would an intervention closer to 90% chance of staying under 1.5 Deg C look like? If people consider today's intervention impossible, then a 90% chance would be beyond impossible. This is the nature of the challenge we face!
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i have absolutely no doubt about that if we go even to three degrees warming and we're about 1.2 right at the moment above pre-industrial temperatures but if we go to even three degrees warming there isn't an ecosystem on the planet 00:35:24 that will not be shredded by that and there's no prospect for anything resembling liberal democracy to serve to survive in a world that's three degrees warmer than it was pre-industrial times
- for: 3 Deg C world - catastrophic
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braveneweurope.com braveneweurope.com
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For a flip-of-a-coin chance of staying at or below 1.5°C we have, globally, just five to eight years of current emissions before we blow our carbon budget
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for: do people know? - 50% chance, 1.5 Deg. C target - is still a crap shoot
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new trailmark: do people know?
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do people know?: 50% chance
- the well known 1.5 Deg C. target, which currently seems almost impossible to achieve, is still a crap shoot! There is a 50% chance that if be we achieve it, we can still trigger very harmful impacts like tipping points
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sonec.org sonec.org
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Common objective on a local level, like a specific problemNeighbourhood cooperation to build better relationships, without a specific objectiveAn individual takes the initiative to build a neighbourhood community, driven by a visionof a better world.
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for: question - SONEC alignment to earth system boundaries
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question
- Stop Reset Go's objective is to find global community partners who can help motivate a local community strategy aligned with the tight timeframe to stay under 1.5 Deg C.
- Is SONEC open to working on a strategic to empower communities in this way?
- We can offer it as an optional framework that the community can integrate into their final framework
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It may be that the climate denialists, even in the 1980s, knew this very well. They denied global heating because they saw it meant social and political change on a scale never seen before. An economic system that had made millions rich and billions at least comfortable would collapse. For those who’ve benefited from the system, death is less frightening than poverty.
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for: quote - staying under 1.5 Deg C
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quote: staying under 1.5 Deg C
- It may be that the climate denialists, even in the 1980s, knew this very well.
- They denied global heating because they saw it meant social and political change on a scale never seen before.
- An economic system that had made millions rich and billions at least comfortable would collapse.
- For those who’ve benefited from the system, death is less frightening than poverty.
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Cutting emissions back to bring global temperatures down to 1.5 C or 2 C would be the equivalent of shutting down China, the United States, India, Japan and Russia.
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for: stats - staying under 1.5 Deg C
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stats: staying under 1.5 Deg C
- is equivalent to shutting down the economies of China, the US, India, Japan and Russia
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- for: 4 Deg world, William Rees,
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picturing.climatecentral.org picturing.climatecentral.org
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for: visualizations - sea level rise at 3 Deg C
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comment
- Look to canal cities like Venice or Amsterdam for inspiration because if it cities are salvagable, parts of them will become canal cities.
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- Nov 2023
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In a scenario that hits global net zero emissions by 2050, declines in demand are sufficiently steep that no new long lead-time conventional oil and gas projects are required. Some existing production would even need to be shut in. In 2040, more than 7 million barrels per day of oil production is pushed out of operation before the end of its technical lifetime in a 1.5 °C scenario.
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for: stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production
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stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production
- no new fields can be developed to meet a 1.5 Deg C scenario
- any new developments face the certain risk of being a stranded asset
- by 2040, 7 million less barrels of oil are produced each day to meet a 1.5 Deg C scenario
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If all national energy and climate goals are reached, this value is lower by 25%, and by 60% if the world gets on track to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.
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for: stats - fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world
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stats: fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world
- current 2023 valuation: 6 trillion USD
- current NDCs met (short of a 1.5 Deg C world): 4.5 trillion USD
- 1.5 Deg C world: 2.4 trillion USD
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if governments deliver in full on their national energy and climate pledges, then oil and gas demand would be 45% below today's level by 2050 and the temperature rise could be limited to 1.7 °C. If governments successfully pursue a 1.5 °C trajectory, and emissions from the global energy sector reach net zero by mid-century, oil and gas use would fall by 75% to 2050.
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for: Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C, NDC insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C
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stats: climate change - NDC
- current NDCs
- 45% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050
- NDCs to meet 1.5 Deg C
- 75% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050
- current NDCs
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Tags
- stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production to meet 1.5 Deg C
- NDCs insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C
- stats - climate change - NDC
- stats - fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world
- stats - oil and gas industry - no new fields to meet 1.5 Deg C
- Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C.
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hat that's going to mean is that a lot of the things um that again that this wealthy say onethird of our society has normalized will have to change the size of our houses 00:12:01 we shouldn't be building really huge houses anymore I would also go further and say if we are really serious about climate change we need to think about the very large properties that we have which there are many of in our society 00:12:12 that need to be divided to make good quality and reasonable sized houses for say three or four families rather than just one family no more second homes and where second homes are in areas where other 00:12:25 people need to live they are no longer allowed to exist so no more second homes
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for: staying within 1.5 Deg C - elites - lifestyle changes - property and building
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example:
- Vancouver, B.C. has artificially inflated property market
- Local Vancouver city government does not want to change bylaws that advantage elites
- Climate change equity issues need to become part of the argument
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reference
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- Sep 2023
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The remaining global carbon budget for a 50% chance of holding the 1.5°C line is down to crumbs, adding up to a meagre 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 6-7 years of global emissions at the current pace. This gives us no choice, but to have all countries, businesses, citizens across the entire world working collectively and unified to solve the planetary crisis.
- for: .5 deg c - chances
- comment
- In Johan’s interview with Kevin Anderson, he articulates that when we account for:
- the conservative nature of IPCC, which means it doesn’t account for much outlier, cutting edges research and is already outdated ( ie doesn’t contain tipping point elements, latest research in Antarctica and Greenland (Jason Box)
- only a 50% chance
- low likelihood of scaling NET in a meaningful way
- when just is added to safe boundaries, 1 deg C is the real threshold
- it already implies that we have at small chance of staying under 1.5 deg C
- In Johan’s interview with Kevin Anderson, he articulates that when we account for:
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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these are not represented in the models, they're not in the global carbon budget estimates, they're not in the IPCC.
- for: carbon budget - underestimate, IPCC - underestimate, 1.5Deg C - underestimate, question, question - revise 1.5 Deg C target downwards?
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highlight
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
- current climate models
- global carbon estimates
- IPCC
- the implications are that the carbon budget is even smaller than the current number.
- the implications are that 1.5 Deg C is not the threshold we should be aiming for, but even less. We are now at 1.2 so it has to be 1.3 or 1.4.
- the 1.5 Deg C target does not account for cascading tipping points. In fact the cascading tipping point research is not accounted for in any of:
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question
- Given the underestimates, should the target actually be revised downwards to 1.3 or 1.4 deg C?
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- Aug 2023
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the series really is a is a proposal for an rd r d program aimed at as new de novo development of new societal systems 00:45:54 and it's also a way to context and a way to think about what transformation might mean so uh it is it is a long-term project you know like a 50-year 00:46:07 project this isn't we're not it would be dangerous to change society radically overnight
- for: science-based societal transformation, whole system change, overnight change, 50 year project, radical change
- paraphrase
- this is not an overnight project
- radical change would be dangerous
- comment
- the word "radical" is subjective here
- how does John view the latest earth system science about the need to reach zero emissions in less than a decade and likely 6 years in order to stay within 1.5 Deg C carbon budget?
- is that considered radical change or not?
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- Mar 2023
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climateuncensored.com climateuncensored.com
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In this first part of a two-part article on the relevance of 1.5°C, we unpick the policy gulf that exists between the Paris Agreement climate goals and our real-world emissions trajectory. Part two, forthcoming, will ask whether it is still tenable to claim that 1.5°C is in any meaningful sense ‘alive’.
Part One of two-part article - on the relevance of 1.5°C, - unpack the policy gulf that exists between - the Paris Agreement climate goals and - real-world emissions trajectory. - Part one challenges - the techno-optimistic position, - embodied by international leaders and the COP process - as being wilfully ignorant of reality.
Part two, forthcoming - question - is still tenable to claim that 1.5°C is in any meaningful sense ‘alive’. - Question recent suggestions that, - because a 50% chance has all but slipped beyond reach, - 1.5°C is now effectively dead in the water. - Exploration of the dangers of disregarding societal transformations - that could yet deliver an outside chance of 1.5°C.
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- Feb 2023
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medium.com medium.com
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- Title: Faster than expected
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subtitle: why most climate scientists can’t tell the truth (in public) Author: Jackson Damien
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This is a good article written from a psychotherapist's perspective,
- examining the psychology behind why published, mainstream, peer reviewed climate change research is always dangerously lagging behind current research,
- and recommending what interventions could be be taken to remedy this
- This your of scientific misinformation coming from scientists themselves
- gives minimizers and denialists the very ammunition they need to legitimise delay of the urgently needed system change.
- What climate scientists say In public is far from what they believe in private.
- For instance, many climate scientists don't believe 1.5 Deg. C target is plausible anymore, but don't say so in public.
- That reticence is due to fear of violating accepted scientific social norms,
- being labeled alarmist and risk losing their job.
- That creates a collective cognitive dissonance that acts as a feedback signal
- for society to implement change at a dangerously slow pace
- and to not spend the necessary resources to prepare for the harm already baked in.
- The result of this choice dissonance is that
- there is no collective sense of an emergency or a global wartime mobilisation scale of collective behaviour.
- Our actions are not commensurate to the permanent emergency state we are now in.
- The appropriate response that is suggested is for the entire climate science community to form a coalition that creates a new kind of peer reviewed publishing and reporting
- that publicly responds to the current and live knowledge that is being discovered every day.
- This is done from a planetary and permanent emergency perspective in order to eliminate the dangerous delays that create the wrong human collective behavioural responses.
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HOW CAN CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALLOW THEMSELVES TO TELL THE TRUTH?
- The author suggests 5 different steps that will enable and empower scientists to tell the truth at scale:
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- Admit that rigid adherence to their academic methods, in this astonishingly rapid context, leads directly to their failure to communicate the truth. For one thing, it is widely held on the scientific community that staying under 1.5 Deg. C is no longer plausible.
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- Form a unified global coalition. Work with communications and psychology experts to present as accurate and as current information as possible
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- Coalition takes actions to announce a permcrisis requiring responding to new live information in real time, bot wait every 7 years for the next IPCC report
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- The author suggests 5 different steps that will enable and empower scientists to tell the truth at scale:
Tags
- eco anxiety
- climate change misinformation
- eco-anxiety
- Climate change underestimated
- Climate permacrisis
- Current climate research outdated
- climate psychology
- 1.5 Deg C o longer plausible
- climate change psychology
- climate alarmist
- climate change alarmist
- Climate change is worse than reported
- permanent emergency
- permacrisis.
Annotators
URL
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subscriber.politicopro.com subscriber.politicopro.com
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The long-term consequences of Russia’s war are less clear. But experts are concerned it may also lock in more future fossil fuel dependence as places like Europe search for replacements for Russian fuel.
- Russian war may increase usage of fuels
- this could make reaching the 1.5 Deg C target more difficult
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Most of them are, in general, moving in the right direction. They just aren’t aggressive enough yet to be consistent with the kind of transformative social change required to achieve the 1.5 C target.
- climate change actions
- Most of the climate actions are moving in the right direction.
- but they just aren’t aggressive enough yet to achieve the 1.5 C target.
- right direction, wrong speed
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attachment.rrz.uni-hamburg.de attachment.rrz.uni-hamburg.de
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We conclude that meeting the1.5°C goal is not plausible, although it is not impos-sible. The future scope and pace of social transfor-mations toward climate action would be crucial forattaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals
- meeting 1.5 Deg C goal is not plausible.
- future scope and pace of social transformation towards climate action is crucial to meet the target
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- Jan 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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1.5 degrees Celsius is the safe boundary this aligns with the intergovernmental panel on climate change with one difference we emphasize that this is a physical limit push it beyond that point 00:05:23 and we risk permanent damage on societies and the world economy
!- first boundary : 1.5 deg C is a physical boundary - we cannot it it we want to retain a planet safe for human civilization - “ If the world breaches 1.5C, we are likely to trigger at least five tipping points, including the irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet and loss of the world’s tropical coral reef systems. This will be devastating for future generations. It will literally change the world, and yet every month we use 1% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5ºC.” From earth commission website: https://earthcommission.org/news/earth-commission-news/pioneering-science-reveals-set-of-earth-system-boundaries-that-can-secure-a-safe-and-just-planet-for-all/
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within the next decade we are at risk of pushing ourselves outside of the safe 00:10:15 boundary of 1.5 degrees Celsius
!- 1.5 deg C boundary : at risk of exceeding in the next decade
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- Dec 2022
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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so let's take the headline budgets and let's adjust them to today November 00:13:16 2022. so these are the the two probabilities that we're using um that's the budget that we have left for two degrees Centigrade that's the budget we've got for 1.5 and these are the years you have 00:13:29 so you know 1.5 nine and a half years of current emissions if the current emissions stayed static we'd have nine and a half years oh a bit worrying um that's about half a percent a bit 00:13:43 under half a percent every month for two degrees centigrade and one percent so every month we're using one percent of the 50 50 chance of 1.5 degrees Centigrade which is not anyway a safe 00:13:54 threshold every month one percent of the budget
!- key takeaway : time remaining to decarbonize to 1.5 Deg C limit - 9.5 years remaining referenced to Nov 2022 - consuming roughly 1% of remaining 380 Gigaton budget every month, or about 11 % every year.
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- Nov 2017
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genomebiology.biomedcentral.com genomebiology.biomedcentral.com
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novel method developed within the MAQC-III project utilizing the expression distributions, corrected for noise and batch effects, and assisted by random resampling, to compute DEG scores related to the Wilcoxon U test (Magic, see Additional file 1: Supplementary Note 2)
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