- Aug 2024
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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there are other tipping points, like for example, lakes. that can flip over from, you know, oxygen rich, fish rich, clear water lakes into these murky, algal bloom dominated, anoxic states, dead states, based on nutrient loading and overfishing, and that is a Oh, not from climate or temperature. Not anything, no, has nothing to do with climate or temperature, it's just a, mismanagement,
for - other types of tipping points - not climate but human mismanagement of resources
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www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
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the people who has the power need to act faster
for - climate crisis - who has the power? - poverty mentality - leverage points - social tipping points - climate crisis - feelings of helplessness
climate crisis - who has the power? - There is still this assumption that policy-makers are the ones who have the power - There isn't yet a recognition of whether there is power within individuals sufficient to make a real difference. - Trying and failing, we grow weary of believing that we do have power to collectively effect the scale of change required - Unless we demonstrate leverage points within individuals that can lead to effective scale of collective action, we cannot jumpstart an effective movement - poverty mentality can keep us stuck
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- Jul 2024
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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some ice ages broke up in a matter of decades or even a few years suddenly
for - progress trap - planetary tipping points - rapid climate destabilization
reference - Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past - https://phys.org/news/2024-02-ice-cores-documentation-rapid-antarctic.html
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- Feb 2024
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scilogs.spektrum.de scilogs.spektrum.de
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Stefan Rahmstorf erklärt die neue Studie zum Tipping Point der Amoc. Die bisher beste Computersimulation des Strömungssystems bestätigt die Existenz des Kipppunkts. Sie ergibt auch ein Signal für die bevorstehende Auslosung des Kipppunkts. Messungen des Salzgehalts in der Nähe des südlichen Afrikas zeigen, dass das Risiko für die Auslosung deutlich gestiegen ist. https://scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/neue-studie-legt-nahe-dass-die-atlantische-umwaelzzirkulation-amoc-auf-kippkurs-ist/
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- Jan 2024
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for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points
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NOTE
- This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp
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SUMMARY
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This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.
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Positive tipping points
- not as well studied as negative tipping points
- cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
- politics
- psychology
- We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change
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SPEAKER PANEL
- Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
- Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
- Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report
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Global Carbon Budget report summary
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0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters
- graph
- comment
- wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.
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00:20:51: Land Use Emissions
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three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia
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00:21:55: CDR
- forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
- technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
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00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget
- 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
- 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
- 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2
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Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action
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adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:
- 194 billion / year
- 366 billion / year by 2030
- climate change increases transboundary issues
- need transboundary agreements but these are absent
- conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
- people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts
-00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)
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00:32:58: Global Tipping Points
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00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C
- Greenland Ice Sheet
- West Antarctic
- Permafrost
- Coral Reefs - 500 million people
- Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
- goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate
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00:35:39
- risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.
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00:36:00
- we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.
-00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions
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00:37:30
- in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.
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00:38:10
- Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
- Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
- Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal
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- Nov 2023
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www.derstandard.de www.derstandard.de
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Eine neue Studie ergibt, dass sich das Abschmelzen des westantarktischen Eisschilds selbst dann fortsetzen wird, wenn die Erderhitzung auf 1,5° begrenzt wird. Das Schelfeis stellt ein Kipppelememt dar. Der Abschmelzvorgang verstärkt sich selbst und führt zu einer unaufhaltsamen Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels, weil er den Weg für das hinter dem Schelfeis gelegene Gletschereis frei macht. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192327/meterhoher-meeresanstieg-durch-abschmelzen-des-westantarktischen-eisschelfs
Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
Mehr zur Studie: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%27report%3A+Unavoidable+future+increase+in+West+Antarctic+ice-shelf+melting%27
Tags
- feature: Thwaites glacier
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet
- study: Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century
- process: sealevel rise
- region: Antarctica
- Triggering Climate Tipping Points
- feature: pine glacier
- process: seaice melting
- expert: Kaitlin Naughten
- institution: British Antarctic Survey
- 2023-10-23
- region: Amundsen sea
Annotators
URL
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www.liberation.fr www.liberation.fr
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climatetippingpoints.info climatetippingpoints.info
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www.carbonbrief.org www.carbonbrief.org
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climatetippingpoints.info climatetippingpoints.info
Tags
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
- Boreal Permafrost
- Arctic Winter Sea Ice
- Greenland Ice Sheet
- Sahel/West African Monsoon
- process: coral bleaching
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet
- topic: tipping points
- Boreal Forest
- East Antarctic Subglacial Basins
- Extra-Polar Mountain Glaciers
- Amazon Rainforest
- expert: David Armstrong McKay
- Labrodor Sea/Subpolar Gyre
- East Antarctic Ice Sheet
- Triggering Climate Tipping Points
- Barents Sea Ice
- Low-Laitude Coral Reefs
Annotators
URL
-
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea
Tags
- topic: tipping points
- study: Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin
- 2023-10-31
- study: Climate Endgame
- study: The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation
- study: Future of the human climate niche
- study: More losers than winners
- study: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
- study: Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
- actor: Rishi Sunak
Annotators
URL
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- Oct 2023
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www.researchgate.net www.researchgate.net
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caling Up Change: A Critical Reviewand Practical Guide to HarnessingSocial Norms for Climate Action
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for: social tipping points - climate action, climate action - social tipping points, social norms - climate action, climate action - social norms, Damon Centola
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title: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action
- author:
- Sara M. Constantino
- Gregg Sparkman
- Gordon T. Kraft-Todd
- Cristina Bicchieri
- Damon Centola
- Bettina Shell-Duncan
- Sonja Vogt
- Elke U. Weber
- date: 2022
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- Sep 2023
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docdrop.org docdrop.org
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in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
- for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
- quote
- In a normal distribution,
- from over here you have the denialists and
- over here you have the environmental activists.
- But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
- And the majority are actually
- we know this from opinion polls
- very supportive of science.
- They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
- They want climate action.
- It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
- children,
- health,
- school,
- financing,
- incomes.
- You know, many, many things to be worried about.
- But that's the question:
- how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
- I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
- scare them and
- fight with the denialists.
- I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
- In a normal distribution,
- author: Johan Rockstrom
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date: Sept., 2023
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comment
- in other words
- the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action
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www.paulgilding.com www.paulgilding.com
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- for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
- title: The Great Disruption has Begun
- author: Paul Gilding
- date: Sept 3, 2023
- source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun
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summary
- good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
- He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
- Coins a good meme
- Everything, everywhere, all at once
- He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
- finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride
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comment
- It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.
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- Aug 2023
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Über den nördlichen Teilen des Great Barrier Reefs würden die heißesten Temperaturen seit 1985 gemessen. Die Hitzewelle könnte eine zweite große Korallenbleiche nach der letztjährigen auslösen.
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Zu der neuen Studie von Terry Hughes über das Great Barrier Reef, das Kurt vor den endgültigen zerstört steht.
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold
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title
- Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
- source
- date
- July 31, 2023
- author
- Sonia Graham
- reference
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www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
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for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola
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title
- Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
- authors
- Sirkku Juhola
- Tatiana Filatova
- Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
- Reinhard Mechler
- Jurgen Scheffran
- Pia-Johanna Schweizer
- date
- Sept 21, 2022
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abstract
- Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
- Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
- With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
- While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
- overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
- Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
- This paper brings together three strands of literature -
- social tipping points,
- climate adaptation limits and
- systemic risks,
- which so far have been separate.
- Furthermore, we discuss
- methods and
- models
- used to illustrate the dynamics of
- social and
- adaptation tipping points
- in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
- We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
- which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.
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reference
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www.rifs-potsdam.de www.rifs-potsdam.de
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for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP
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reference
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- Mar 2023
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Seit dem Beginn von Satelliten-Beobachtungen vor vier Jahrzehnten ist das antarktische Meereis noch nie so geschrumpft wie im Februar 2023.
Tags
- Region: Antarctica
- process: sea ice loss
- expert: Will Hopp
- expert: Rob Massom
- Thwaites-Gletscher
- institution: National Snow and Ice Data Center
- expert: Ariaan Purich
- expert: Phil Reid
- expert: Ted Scambos
- climate tipping points
- Project: Australian Antarctic Program Partnership
- expert: Matt England
- Parameter: m sq km
- Region: west antarctic ice shield
- Mode: study
- time: 2023-02
- time: 1979-2023
Annotators
URL
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- Oct 2020
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www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Eine Studie zeigt, dass der Tipping Point zum Umkippen des Amazonas-Regenwalds zur Savanne schon bald erreicht sein könnte.
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