for - social tipping points - climate change

for - climate crisis - planetary tipping points - irreversible? - Hansen disagrees - part 2 - climate crisis - comparison - planetary tipping points - Hansen vs Rockstrom

climate crisis - comparison - planetary tipping points - Hansen vs Rockstrom - Hansen makes a valid point. What Rockstrom might consider irreversible, although he doesn't explicitly say, but implies, Hansen speaks instead in more precise terms - The perspectives may be dependent on the knowledge that informs each scientist - Hansen's research into the unknown area of climate change, aeresols and cloud cover, is not considered in conventional knowledge that IPCC bases its conclusions on since it is unknown - Hansen's research uncovers that aeresols play a very large role, to such an extent that humans may be able to mitigate exceeding dangerous temperature thresholds pragmatically through aeresol interventions that impact cloud behavior -

for - climate crisis - planetary tipping points - irreversible? - Hansen disagrees - part 1

for - paper - Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention - Centola et al., 2018

for - social tipping points - climate action - social tipping interventions - STI

paper details - title: From niches to norms: the promise of social tipping interventions to scale climate action - authors: Pizziol, Veronica; Tavoni, Alessandro - publisher: Nature - date: 2024

for - need to establish global cooperation to mitigate existential threats of nuclear war and combat tipping points - Yanis Varoufakis - third and fourth suggestion - exercise soft power in the United States - Yanis Varoufakis - Yanis Varoufakis laid out the existential reasons why is important to reach out to the social democrats in the US such as Bernie Sanders - without establishing global cooperation, there is no way to prevent - nuclear war and - climate tipping points

for - Donald Trump re-election - existential risk - planetary tipping points - earth system boundaries - study - Impact 2024 - Cascade Institute - polycrisis - Trump reelection - increase risk

for - question - Study on 2024 Trump win on polycrisis - Cascade Institute - why is there such a small analysis on the environment and especially planetary tipping points whilst climate clock is ticking?

for - biodiversity - safe earth system boundaries - 2 measures - intact natural ecosystems - ecosystems modified by human pressures - question - quantification of biodiversity tipping points at various scales

question - quantification of biodiversity tipping points at various scales - As ecologist David Suzuki often says, economy depends on ecology, not the other way around - Is there quantification at different potential tipping points for extinction for biodiversity at different scales and localities?

for - cascading planetary tipping points - NY Times animation

for - social tipping points - quote - Johan Rockstrom

quote - social tipping points - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - We know from previous large transitions in history that - You never change the world by having everyone on board.. - You change the world by having large enough minorities<br /> - that can tip quite inert majority to move in the right direction. - When you look at the world of sustainability. - in many societies in the world, we are actually a double digit penetration - on sustainable solutions, - on people's awareness, - on willingness to even politically vote for green or, sustainable options. - So we're very close to that positive tipping point as well. - and that's another reason why it's not the moment to back down. - Now is the moment to just increase momentum.

for - planetary emergency - risk analysis

planetary emergency - risk analysis - risk = probability x impact - If impact is high, then even low probability x high impact means high risk - If AMOC or Greenland icesheet melts, the impact is so high that it is not even economically measurable

for - example - cascading tipping points via AMOC

example - cascading tipping points via AMOC - As Arctic system melts faster, it releases more freshwater into the North Atlantic - This is happening on the southern tip of Greenland, for example and the lower density of water slows down the AMOC current - Warm saline water flows from the Southern Ocean up into the North Atlantic - When it reaches the southern tip of Greenland, the heat is radiated into the atmosphere and heats up Europe - When the freshwater meltwater from Greenland mixes with this AMOC current, the AMOC water is less heavy and sinks slower - This pushes monsoons further south, which can explain why there are more droughts and fires in the Amazon rainforest - The slowdown of the AMOC leaves more saline water stuck in Antarctica, potentially contributing to the faster melting of Antarctica glaciers

for - other types of tipping points - not climate but human mismanagement of resources

for - social tipping points - breakthrough effect - cascading tipping points - systemiq - Bezos Earth Fund -University of Exeter - social tipping points

report details - title - The Breakthrough Effect - How to trigger a cascade of tipping points to accelerate the net zero transition - authors - Mark Meldrum - Lloyd Pinnell - Katy Brennan - Mattia Romani - Simon Sharpe - Tim Lenton - date - january 2023 - publisher -

for - climate crisis - who has the power? - poverty mentality - leverage points - social tipping points - climate crisis - feelings of helplessness

climate crisis - who has the power? - There is still this assumption that policy-makers are the ones who have the power - There isn't yet a recognition of whether there is power within individuals sufficient to make a real difference. - Trying and failing, we grow weary of believing that we do have power to collectively effect the scale of change required - Unless we demonstrate leverage points within individuals that can lead to effective scale of collective action, we cannot jumpstart an effective movement - poverty mentality can keep us stuck

Neue Studie zu den Tipping Points mit dramatischen Ergebnissen

for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated

article details - title - Overselling the Science of Social Tipping Points - author - Peter Licari, PhD - date - 11 Jjune, 2018 - publication - Medium - https://prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32

from - Medium - Social tipping points are probably overrated - https://hyp.is/yMaQND7WEe-Q2zsiwzB5wA/jamesozden.substack.com/p/social-tipping-points-are-probably

for - social tipping points - Centola 25% threshold - critique - to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points

comment - The author raises valid critique of Centola's 25% threshold. - His main critique concerns the experiment not representing real world complex scenarios and is summarized in 3 points: - The experimental method used is an oversimplification of the complexity of real world complex issues such as climate change denial and meat eating, which are deeply ingrained beliefs in many cases. - No such attachment exists in the experimental setup - In the experiment, the subjects were incentified. In complex real world issues, there is often no incentive structure - Real life isn't all 1-1 interactions

to - Medium - Overselling the Science of Tipping Points - https://hyp.is/Aocs0D7WEe-knadNGOYVog/prlicari.medium.com/overselling-the-science-of-social-tipping-points-16095145d32

for - progress trap - planetary tipping points - rapid climate destabilization

reference - Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past - https://phys.org/news/2024-02-ice-cores-documentation-rapid-antarctic.html

for - from - Lilnked In Post - publication alert

from - Linked In - publication alert - Governance for Earth system tipping points – A research agenda - https://hyp.is/5KSgoipFEe-WkRuWZivLvw/www.linkedin.com/posts/manjana-milkoreit-9304313_governance-for-earth-system-tipping-points-activity-7207310870534578176-d9/

for - to - Linked In post - publication alert - Governance for Earth System Tipping Points - A Research Agenda

to - Linked In post - publication alert - Governance for Earth System Tipping Points - A Research Agenda - https://hyp.is/Y-UqTipGEe-EVuflmhInnQ/www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811624000168

for - question - social tipping points - anthropology of

question - social. tipping point - When will the critical mass threshold be passed - for the chain reaction to be sustained - by the virtuous circle of people - living more meaningful lives, - cooperating and being in solidarity and - helping to make the planet healthier?

adjacency - between - starling murmuration discovery of seven closest neighbors - cosmolocal impacts - cascading social tipping points - SIMPOL / SIMACT - adjacency statement - Could this finding of starling murmuration behavior also apply to collective human behavior, especially social tipping points?

https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000207394/der-amazonas-regenwald-koennte-2050-einen-kipppunkt-erreichen-und-kollabieren

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06970-0

Stefan Rahmstorf erklärt die neue Studie zum Tipping Point der Amoc. Die bisher beste Computersimulation des Strömungssystems bestätigt die Existenz des Kipppunkts. Sie ergibt auch ein Signal für die bevorstehende Auslosung des Kipppunkts. Messungen des Salzgehalts in der Nähe des südlichen Afrikas zeigen, dass das Risiko für die Auslosung deutlich gestiegen ist. https://scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/neue-studie-legt-nahe-dass-die-atlantische-umwaelzzirkulation-amoc-auf-kippkurs-ist/

Eine neue Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass ein Umkippen des nordatlantischen Strömungssystems Amoc in einem anderen Zustand schon sehr bald drohen könnte, wenn sich die globale Erhitzung fortsetzt. Die Studie modelliert auch die Folgen, zum Beispiel sehr schnell steigende Wasserstände an der amerikanischen Ostküste, ein Umkippen des Amazonas-Regenwaldes und wesentlich niedrigere Temperaturen in Europa. Der Studienautor stellt fest, dass wir die Erhitzung sehr viel ernster nehmen müssen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds

Studie: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

Read Minority Rules: Scientists Discover Tipping Point for the Spread of Ideas by Gabrielle DeMarco

found via: https://hypothes.is/a/kMVt4rC4Ee6E5bdC29_e_g

Yong, Ed. “The Tipping Point When Minority Views Take Over.” The Atlantic (blog), June 7, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/the-tipping-point-when-minority-views-take-over/562307/.

Centola's Experiments Suggest 25% Activists Will Tip a Population

Relationship with @Schelling1971 work?

Schelling, Thomas C. “Dynamic Models of Segregation.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1, no. 2 (July 1, 1971): 143–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.1971.9989794.

The key here seems to be the noncommitted actors. Who are they? Why are they noncommitted? Are there areas where noncommittment doesn't occur?

• for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.

Im Interview der Repubblica (hier auf Englisch) fordert Johan Rockström eine Konkretisierung der Ergebnisse der COP28 und eine Reform der UN-Klimakonferenzen. Er hebt die Ergebnisse des Global Tipping Points Report hervor und weist darauf hin, dass wir die Konsequenzen der kaum noch zu Überschreitung des 1,5°-Ziels über mehrere Jahrzehnte nicht kennen.

https://www.greenandblue.it/2023/12/31/news/johan_rockstrom_earth4all_scenarios-421790005/

• for: system change - where to start

• paraphrase

  • You don't start a feminist revolution by arguing with your dad. He might be the one who needs to change, but that doesn't mean that you start there.
  • You start by talking to each other. We need to come together. We need to have solidarity.
  • We need to have a common narrative and analysis and understanding of what's happening.
  • And I think a common understanding of pathways of change and we need that core nucleus of people who really are working for system change.
  • I think that's where we start. And hopefully, the narrative and the clarity that we can bring will be compelling enough that we will win more hearts and minds

• comment

  • cascading social tipping points

• for: COP28 talk - later is too late, Global tipping points report, question - are there maps of feedbacks of positive tipping points?, My Climate Risk, ICICLE, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• NOTE

  • This video is not yet available on YouTube so couldn't not be docdropped for annotation. So all annotations are done here referred to timestamp

• SUMMARY

  • This video has not been uploaded on youtube yet so there is no transcription and I am manually annotating on this page.

  • Positive tipping points

    • not as well studied as negative tipping points
    • cost parity is the most obvious but there are other factors relating to
      • politics
      • psychology
    • We are in a path dependency so we need disruptive change

• SPEAKER PANEL

  • Pierre Fredlingstein, Uni of Exeter - Global carbon budget report
  • Rosalyn Conforth, Uni of Reading - Adaptation Gap report
  • Tim Lenton, Uni of Exeter - Global Tipping Report

• Global Carbon Budget report summary

• 0:19:47: Graph of largest emitters

  • graph
  • comment
    • wow! We are all essentially dependent on China! How do citizens around the world influence China? I suppose if ANY of these major emitters don't radically reduce, we won't stay under 1.5 Deg C, but China is the biggest one.

• 00:20:51: Land Use Emissions

• three countries represent 55% of all land use emissions - Brazil - DRC - Indonesia

• 00:21:55: CDR

  • forests: 1.9 Gt / 5% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions
  • technological CDR: 0.000025% of annual Fossil Fuel CO2 emissions

• 00:23:00: Remaining Carbon Budget

  • 1.5 Deg C: 275 Gt CO2
  • 1.7 Deg C. 625 Gt CO2
  • 2.0 Deg C. 1150 Gt CO2

• Advancing an Inclusive Process for Adaptation Planning and Action

• adaptation is underfinanced. The gap is:

  • 194 billion / year
  • 366 billion / year by 2030
• climate change increases transboundary issues
  • need transboundary agreements but these are absent
  • conflicts and migration are a result of such transboundary climate impacts
  • people are increasing climate impacts to try to survive due to existing climate impacts

-00:29:46: My Climate Risk Regional Hubs - Looking at climate risks from a local perspective. - @Nate, @SoNeC - 00:30:33 ""ICICLE** storyllines - need bottom-up approach (ICICLE - Integrated Climate Livelihood and and Environment storylines)

• 00:32:58: Global Tipping Points

• 00:33:46: Five of planetary systems can tip at the current 1.2 Deg C

  • Greenland Ice Sheet
  • West Antarctic
  • Permafrost
  • Coral Reefs - 500 million people
  • Subpolar Gyre of North Atlantic - ice age in Europe
    • goes in a decade - like British Columbia climate

• 00:35:39

  • risks go up disproportionately with every 0.1 deg C of warming. There is no longer a business-as-usual option now. We CANNOT ACT INCREMENTALLY NOW.

• 00:36:00

  • we calculate a need of a speed up of a factor of 7 to shut down greenhouse gas emissions and that is done through positive tipping points.

-00:37:00 - We have accelerating positive feedbacks and if we coordinate policy changes with consumer behavior change and business behavior change to reinforce these positive feedbacks, we can help accelerate change in the other sectors of the global economy responsible for all the other emissions

• 00:37:30

  • in the report we walk you through the other sectors, where their tipping points are and how we have to act to trigger them. This is the only viable path out of our situation.

• 00:38:10

  • Positive tipping points can also reinforce each other
  • Question: Are there maps of the feedbacks of positive tipping points?
  • Tim only discusses economic and technological positive tipping points and does not talk about social or societal

https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000198280/fuenf-kipppunkte-im-klimasystem-kommen-schon-bei-jetziger-erwaermung-ins-wanken

• for: social tipping points - political, quote - french Revolution - Denmark

• quote.

  • the French Revolution happened in Denmark

• for: answer to above question

• answer : two answers

  • first, the elite have the majority of
    • wealth
    • control of setting policies
    • control of the media
    • and they work really hard at controlling policy and media
    • and the people
      • hate the system
      • generally hate them
  • second, social tipping points occur. Something happened in over place, then it spreads to other places

• for: social tipping point, STP, social tipping point - misapplication, social tipping points - 4 application errors

• title: Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse

• author: Manjana Miikoreit

• date: Nov 17, 2022

• abstract

  • The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs),
    • understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems.
  • A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change.
  • In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example
    • climate tipping points and
    • ecological regime shifts–
  • STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems.
  • Drawing on
    • a well-established definition for tipping points, and
    • a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change,
  • this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change:
    • (i) premature labeling,
    • (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis,
    • (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and
    • (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change.
  • Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept.
  • Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for
    • the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for
    • future science-policy interactions related to climate change.
  • Future research should seek to
    • identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that
      • many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that
      • certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn

• for: planetary tipping points, global tipping points, positive tipping points, social tipping points

• for:social tipping points - within safe and just earth system boundaries

• comment
  • if we have to wait until planetary tipping points are triggered, it will be too late. There has to be some other less catastrophic event that happens before that. Perhaps some combination of extreme weather events
  • We need to trigger sufficiently large social tipping points before planetary tipping points are breached.

Eine neue Studie ergibt, dass sich das Abschmelzen des westantarktischen Eisschilds selbst dann fortsetzen wird, wenn die Erderhitzung auf 1,5° begrenzt wird. Das Schelfeis stellt ein Kipppelememt dar. Der Abschmelzvorgang verstärkt sich selbst und führt zu einer unaufhaltsamen Erhöhung des Meeresspiegels, weil er den Weg für das hinter dem Schelfeis gelegene Gletschereis frei macht. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192327/meterhoher-meeresanstieg-durch-abschmelzen-des-westantarktischen-eisschelfs

Studie: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x

Mehr zur Studie: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%27report%3A+Unavoidable+future+increase+in+West+Antarctic+ice-shelf+melting%27

https://science.orf.at/stories/3221126/

• for: individual/collective gestalt, social tipping points

Die englische Regierung hat in der letzten Oktoberwoche 27 Lizenzen zur Öl- und Gasförderung in der Nordsee vergeben. George Monbiot konfrontiert diese Entscheidung mit aktuellen Erkenntnissen zum sechsten Massenaussterben und dem drohenden Zusammenbruch lebensunterstützender Systeme des Planeten https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/31/flickering-earth-systems-warning-act-now-rishi-sunak-north-sea

https://theconversation.com/antarctic-tipping-points-the-irreversible-changes-to-come-if-we-fail-to-keep-warming-below-2-207410

• for: social tipping points - climate action, climate action - social tipping points, social norms - climate action, climate action - social norms, Damon Centola

• title: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action

• author:
  • Sara M. Constantino
  • Gregg Sparkman
  • Gordon T. Kraft-Todd
  • Cristina Bicchieri
  • Damon Centola
  • Bettina Shell-Duncan
  • Sonja Vogt
  • Elke U. Weber
• date: 2022

Durch die Entwaldung des Amazonas-Regenwalds steht das südamerikanische Monsunsystem kurz vor einem Kipppunkt, nach dessen Überschreiten die Niederschläge im Amazonasgebiet um 30% sinken und der Regenwald langsam verschwinden würde. Eine neue Studie zeigt, dass dieser Kipppunkt unmittelbar bevorstehen könnte. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/04/south-american-monsoon-heading-towards-tipping-point-likely-to-cause-amazon-dieback

Study: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.add9973

• for: leverage points, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - motivating the silent majority, climate change - priority, social tipping point
• quote
  • In a normal distribution,
    • from over here you have the denialists and
    • over here you have the environmental activists.
  • But in between you have a lot of different types of people.
  • And the majority are actually
    • we know this from opinion polls
  • very supportive of science.
  • They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change.
  • They want climate action.
  • It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life.They have
    • children,
    • health,
    • school,
    • financing,
    • incomes.
  • You know, many, many things to be worried about.
  • But that's the question:
    • how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us?
  • I don't think that the way to make them join us is to
    • scare them and
    • fight with the denialists.
  • I think the way to make them join is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
• author: Johan Rockstrom

• date: Sept., 2023

• comment

  • in other words
  • the silent majority does not yet hold climate change activism to be sufficiently high on their list of priorities yet to warrant the necessary scale of action

• for: cascading tipping points, cascading tipping points - Greenland - AMOC - Antarctica

• highlights

  • latest research at PIK shows that the two poles are connected via the AMOC current.
    • Greenland ice sheet melt releasing cold fresh water is slowing down the North Atlantic overturning of heat.
    • The slowdown is keeping more warm saline water in place in the Southern Ocean, accelerating melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

• for: system change, polycrisis, extreme weather, planetary tipping points, climate disruption, climate chaos, tipping point, hothouse earth, new meme, deep transformation
• title: The Great Disruption has Begun
• author: Paul Gilding
• date: Sept 3, 2023
• source: https://www.paulgilding.com/cockatoo-chronicles/the-great-disruption-has-begun

• summary

  • good q uick opening paragraphs that summarize the plethora of extreme events in 2023 up to Sept 2023 (but misses the Canadian Wildfires) and also the list of potential planetary tipping points that are giving indication of being at the threshold.
  • He makes a good point about the conservative nature of science that underestimates impacts due to the inertia of scientific study.
  • Coins a good meme
    • Everything, everywhere, all at once
  • He ties all the various crisis together to show the many components of the wicked problem we face
  • finally what it comes down to is that we cannot stop the coming unprecedented changes but we can and must slow it down as much as possible and we should be prepared for a wild ride

• comment

  • It would be a good educational tool for deep and transformative climate education to map all these elements of the polycrisis and show their feedbacks and interactions, especially how it relates to socio-economic impacts to motivate transformative change and mobilize the urgency now required.

• for: Canadian forest fires, tipping point, forest fire graph, graph - forest fires - Canada,
• comment
  • graph that shows the unprecedented forest fires turning forests from carbon sink to carbon source

Über den nördlichen Teilen des Great Barrier Reefs würden die heißesten Temperaturen seit 1985 gemessen. Die Hitzewelle könnte eine zweite große Korallenbleiche nach der letztjährigen auslösen.

Zu der neuen Studie von Terry Hughes über das Great Barrier Reef, das Kurt vor den endgültigen zerstört steht.

• for: early adopters, social tipping points, wide bridges
• question
• paraphrase
  • who are the envisioned early adopters?
    • there are numerous experiments going on everywhere
    • new digital currencies
    • new types of democratic systems
    • new kinds of economic system proposals
    • existing communities may have a few thousand members, but can be exponentially grown to hundreds of millions
    • lots of small prototypes being built right now, we find the optimal ones and scale those

• for: communications, TPF, STP
  • community radio
    • KDNA
    • WGXC

• for: social tipping point, STP, social norms, 35% threshold, 25% threshold, TPF
• question
  • is this result contradicting Centola's 25% threshold finding?

• for: social tipping point, STP, TPF, social norms, complex contagion, lowering threshold
• policy changes can lower tipping point thresholds

• for: social tipping point, STP, tipping point, social norm, complex contagion
• study findings
  • Two factors can help hasten beneficial change
    • common understanding of the benefits from change due to:
      • events that attract attention
      • opinion polls that aggregate information
      • finding an angle on an issue that appeals to a broad demographics
    • perserverence
      • leaders who persevere even at great cost

• for: social tipping point, STP, 25% threshold, 35% threshold, social norms, complex contagion, TPF
• title
  • Social tipping points and forecasting norm change
• authors
  • Nikos Nikiforakis
  • Simon Siegenthaler James Andreoni

• for: social-climatic tipping points, tipping points,
• title
  • An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, leverage points, STP, 25% STP threshold

• title

  • Climate change can drive social tipping points – for better or for worse
• source
  • https://theconversation.com/climate-change-can-drive-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-for-worse-210641
• date
  • July 31, 2023
• author
  • Sonia Graham
• reference
  • https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10516

• for: social tipping points, STP, social tipping point, leverage point, Sirkku Juhola

• title

  • Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance
• authors
  • Sirkku Juhola
  • Tatiana Filatova
  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
  • Reinhard Mechler
  • Jurgen Scheffran
  • Pia-Johanna Schweizer
• date
  • Sept 21, 2022

• abstract

  • Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere.
  • Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system.
  • With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt.
  • While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes,
    • overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised.
  • Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal.
  • This paper brings together three strands of literature -
    • social tipping points,
    • climate adaptation limits and
    • systemic risks,
  • which so far have been separate.
  • Furthermore, we discuss
    • methods and
    • models
  • used to illustrate the dynamics of
    • social and
    • adaptation tipping points
  • in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits.
  • We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems,
    • which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

• reference

  • https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/news/social-tipping-points-spotlight

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, leverage point, STP

• reference

  • https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.frontiersin.org%2Farticles%2F10.3389%2Ffclim.2022.1009234&group=world

• for: social tipping point, social tipping points, STP, Tim Lenton, positive tipping points

• for: interdependent, emptiness, cascading tipping points
  • the Arctic which is warming three times faster than the planet on average
  • and releases cold fresh water into the North Atlantic slowing down the whole overturning of heat in the North Atlantic
  • which pushes the monsoon further south
  • which can explain droughts and forest fires over the Brazilian part of the Amazon
  • moreover the slowing down of overturning of heat means that more warm water is stuck in the Southern Ocean
  • which can explain why the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than we had expected so there's a connection between the North Pole and the South Pole in this web of interactive tipping elements so
• This is something we have to recognize we are today a big world on a very small planet and it's all interwired and we are interdependent now

• for tipping point, planetary tipping point
• likely temperature thresholds for breaching planetary tipping points at 1.5 Deg C
  • Greenland Ice sheet
  • West Antarctica ice sheet
  • tropical coral reef system
  • boreal permafrost
  • Berent sea ice

Im Meer bei Florida wurde eine Oberflächentemperatur von 38,43°C gemessen – möglicherweise ein neuer globaler Rekord. Der Bericht des Guardian geht auf andere marine Hitzewellen und Studien über ihre Zunahme ein. Nach Daten der amerikanischen Wetterbehörde NOAA wurden in diesem Jahr schon im April, Mai und Juni Rekorde bei der Oberflächentemperatur der Ozeane gebrochen. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/25/florida-ocean-temperatures-hot-tub-extreme-weather

Eine neue Studie hält es für möglich, dass das Strömungssystem im Nordatlantik seinen Zustand schon in wenigen Jahren so verändert, dass der Golfstrom zusammenbricht. Die Modellierung basiert auf Messungen der Oberflächentemperatur des Nordatlantik seit 1850. Sie legt nahe, dass zwischen 2025 und 2095 ein Kipppunkt erreicht wird, wenn weiter Treibhausgase in die Atmosphäre gepumpt werden. An der Aussagekraft der Daten bestehen aber noch Zweifel. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/climate/atlantic-ocean-tipping-point.html

Seit dem Beginn von Satelliten-Beobachtungen vor vier Jahrzehnten ist das antarktische Meereis noch nie so geschrumpft wie im Februar 2023.

!- cascading tipping points : example - melting Greenland glacier dumps cold fresh water into North Atlantic - excess cold water shows down the AMOC current - a slower AMOC causes monsoons to move further south - this causes drought and forest fires in Amazon rainforest and warms the southern oceans - warning southern oceans accelerates melting of Antarctica ice sheets

!- comment : slowing AMOC - can also affect many other processes - https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/atlantic-ocean-currents-amoc/

Das Gletschereis im Norden Grönlands schmilzt sechsmal schneller ab als bisher angenommen. Die Indizien dafür, dass das Kipp-Element Grönländischer Eisschild schon sehr instabil ist, verdichten sich.

!- slogan : from climate change to system change

!- insight : poor identify with their personware * it just brings too much pain to know what one is denied

!- for : social tipping points * building wide bridges requires uniting diverse groups * understanding this self denial as a form of survival is important to understand the psychology of the oppressed

Slight chance. We need nonlinear solutions and to find all the leverage points, social tipping points and idling capacity we can.:

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnas.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1900577117&group=world

An Introduction to PLAN E Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First-Century Era of Entangled Security and Hyperthreats https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usmcu.edu%2FOutreach%2FMarine-Corps-University-Press%2FExpeditions-with-MCUP-digital-journal%2FAn-Introduction-to-PLAN-E%2Ffbclid%2FIwAR3facE8l6Jk4Msc8C1nw8yWtwnzSCXVZGlO7JLkjqo8CWYTYAqAMTPkTO8%2F&group=world

Science Driven Societal Transformation https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2Fz9ZCjd2rqGY%2F&group=world

Accronyms:

STP - social tipping point STE - social tipping element STI - social tipping intervention

triggering social tipping points and mitigating collective illusion of climate change can make it visible rapidly.

Unfortunately, our fates are collectively tied so we must collectively do this at scale to prevent tipping points. The motto of the Tipping Point Festival: Reach Social tipping points before planetary ones are breached.

to achieve large mobilization, a cascading social tipping point strategy can be fruitful, coupled with a conditional onboarding such as employed in the Simpol strategy: https://www.simpol.ph/ Conditional onboarding works because, like crowdfunding, nobody needs to make any resource commitment unless sufficient momentum is demonstrated.

Prioritizing the application of social tipping point theory.

The bottom-up nature of this cluster makes it the focus area for civil society movements, human inner transformation (HIT) approaches and cultural methodologies.

Changing the mindset or paradigm from which the system arises is the most powerful place to intervene in a system as Donella Meadows pointed out decades ago in her research on system leverage points: https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

The sleeping giant of billions of potential change actors remains dormant. How do we awaken them and mobilize them. If we can do this, it can constitute the emergence of a third unidentified actor in system change.

The Stop Reset Go (SRG) initiative is focused on this thematic lens, bottom-up, rapid whole system change, with Deep Humanity (DH) as the open-source praxis to address the needed shift in worldview advocated by Meadows. One of the Deep Humanity programs is based on addressing the psychological deficits of the wealthy, and transforming them into heroes for the transition, by redirecting their WEALTH-to-WELLth.

There are a number of strategic demographics that can be targeted in methodical evidence-based ways. Each of these is a leverage point and can bring about social tipping points.

A number of 2021 reports characterize the outsized impact of the top 1% and top 10% of humanity. Unless their luxury, high ecological footprint behavior is reeled in, humanity won't stand a chance. Annotation of Oxfam report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Foxfamilibrary.openrepository.com%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10546%2F621305%2Fbn-carbon-inequality-2030-051121-en.pdf&group=__world__ Annotation of Hot or Cool report: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotorcool.org%2Fhc-posts%2Frelease-governments-in-g20-countries-must-enable-1-5-aligned-lifestyles%2F&group=__world__

This passage pays homage to Donella Meadows, who identified the shift in mindset or paradigm that supports the system as the top leverage point. If we can shift this mindset in sufficient number of people, it can shift the thinking of the Enabler Cluster identified in the paper. A social tipping point strategy can be adopted to help this to happen quickly. This strategy is being developed by Stop Reset Go and other civil society actors.

Es geht um einen Rückkoppelungsmechanismus: Das Schmelzen des Eises führt dazu, dass der Eispanzer niedriger wird, und die niedrigeren Temperaturen in geringerer Höhe beschleunigen das Schmelzen.

Es geht darum, dass es vom Tempo der Änderungen, nicht nur von der Größe abhängt, wann ein Kippelement ausgelöst wird. Konkret würde dass für die nordatlantische Strömung in einer Simulation herausgefunden.

Auch hier wird auf das Modell der Social tipping points zurückgegriffen.

Eine Studie zeigt, dass der Tipping Point zum Umkippen des Amazonas-Regenwalds zur Savanne schon bald erreicht sein könnte.