We're seeing um um a very strong unwillingness to get rid of the four5 trillion US in subsidies to fossil fuels and introducing a price on carbon
for - climate crisis - major barrier - unwillingness to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies - Johan Rockstrom
science still has the yellow the yellow leadership um um shirt and um business is still trying to keep keep you know in the in the pelaton
for - metaphor - Tour de France - decarbonization - Science in lead - business second - policy distant 3rd - Johan Rockstrom
after 2015 we know that policy actually did not step up and deliver. So there's a big disappointment with the political leadership in the world, but business actually stayed on track
for - quote - Paris Accord - 2025 - policy lagged but business stayed on track - Johan Rockstrom
for - Johan Rockstrom - planetary boundaries 2025 - earth system boundaries 2025
for - planetary boundaries update - June 2025 - earth system boundaries update - June 2025 - youtube - Johan Rockstrom - June 2025
Der neue Planetary Health Check des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung ergibt, dass durch die Versauerung der Ozeane möglicherweise gerade die siebte von 9 planetaren Grenzen durchbrochen wird und die Biosphäre auch hier in eine Hochrisikozone eintritt. Bei allen anderen mit Ausnahme des Ozonschwunds haben sich die Bedingungen verschlechtert. Die CO2- Emissionen treiben die Versauerung an, die wiederum die Fähigkeit der Ozeane mindert, als CO2-Senke zu wirken. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/23/earth-breach-planetary-boundaries-health-check-oceans
Website zum Planetary Health Check: https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/
Feedback-Mechanismen im Kohlenstoffzyklus könnten dafür sorgen, dass die globale Erhitzung in den kommenden Jahrhunderten noch deutlich stärker ist als bisher angenommen. Nur eine radikale Senkung der CO2-Emissionen der Atmosphäre kann noch bewirken, dass die 2°-Grenze des Pariser-Abkommens eingehalten wird. Das ergibt eine neue Studie des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung zur Klimasensitivität. Mit Klimasensitivität ist die Temperaturerhöhung gemeint zu der es bei einer Verdoppelung des Treibhausgehalts in der Atmosphäre kommt.
Studie: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
2023 haben Böden und Landpflanzen fast kein CO2 absorbiert. Dieser Kollaps der Landsenken vor allem durch Dürren und Waldbrände wurde in diesem Ausmaß kaum vorausgesehen, und es ist nicht klar, ob auf ihn eine Regeneration folgt. Er stellt Klimamodelle ebenso in Frage wie die meisten nationalen Pläne zum Erreichen von CO2-Neutralität, weil sie auf natürlichen Senken an Land beruhen. Es gibt Anzeichen dafür, dass die steigenden Temperaturen inzwischen auch die CO2-Aufnahmefähigkeit der Meere schwächen. Überblicksartikel mit Links zu Studien https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/14/nature-carbon-sink-collapse-global-heating-models-emissions-targets-evidence-aoe
Der Stress, dem die Wassersysteme der Welt ausgesetzt sind, wird dazu führen, dass das 2030 die Nachfrage nach Wasser 40% höher sein wird als das Angebot. Der Bericht der Globalen Komission für die Wasserökonomie stellt fest, dass ohne radikale Gegenmaßnahmen die Hälfte der Nahrungsproduktion der Welt in den kommenden 25 Jahren gefährdet ist. Trotz der Verbundenheit der globalen Wasserressourcen werde Wasser noch nicht als globales Gemeingut gemanagt. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/16/global-water-crisis-food-production-at-risk
We provide the concept with a substantive definition
for - paper - Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement
paper details - title: Global polycrisis - the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement - authors: Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Schott Janzwood, Johan Rockstrom, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan F. Donges - publication: Global Sustainability, 2024, January 17
summary - This paper provides a scientific definition of "polycrisis"
for - earth system boundaries - safe and just earth system boundaries - cross translated - to cities and business - planetary boundaries - downscaled planetary boundaries - urban planetary boundaries - Johan Rockstrom - Xuemei Bao - Lancet paper - just and safe earth system boundaries - Earth Commission report
paper details - title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations - authors: - Joyeeta Gupta - Xuemei Bao - Johan Rockstrom - Diana M Liverman <br /> - Dahe Qin - Ben Stewart-Koster - et al - publication: Lancet 2024, Sept 11
summary
Der neue Earth Report stellt fest, dass sich nur durch eine schnelle Reduzierung der Nachfrage der reichsten 15% der Weltbevölkerung gerechte und sichere Lebensbedingungen für die gesamte Menschheit im Jahr 2050 ermöglichen lassen. Der von einer Kommission prominenter Experten erstellte und von der Medizinzeitschrift Lancet publzierte Bericht beschäftigt sich mit bisher unterschätzten Folgen der Überschreitung der planeraren Grenzen. Gerechtigkeit z.B durch Besteuerung der Reichen sei eine entscheidende Voraussetzung der globalen Sicherheit https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/12/consumerism-and-the-climate-crisis-threaten-equitable-future-for-humanity-report-says
Earth Report: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext
we know from previous large transitions in history that you never change the world by having everyone on board. You change the world by having large enough minorities that can tip quite inert majority to move in the right direction
for - social tipping points - quote - Johan Rockstrom
quote - social tipping points - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - We know from previous large transitions in history that - You never change the world by having everyone on board.. - You change the world by having large enough minorities<br /> - that can tip quite inert majority to move in the right direction. - When you look at the world of sustainability. - in many societies in the world, we are actually a double digit penetration - on sustainable solutions, - on people's awareness, - on willingness to even politically vote for green or, sustainable options. - So we're very close to that positive tipping point as well. - and that's another reason why it's not the moment to back down. - Now is the moment to just increase momentum.
So, not only is it on our generation's watch that everything has occurred, it's on our generation's watch that we will determine the future. So, so it's, in our hands. to now determine the future for humanity on earth. So yes, it's an intergenerational justice, fundamentally.
for - quote - our generation caused the problem and must solve it - Johan Rockstrom
quote - Our generation caused the problem and must solve it - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - So, not only is it on our generation's watch that everything has occurred, - it's on our generation's watch that we will determine the future. - So it's in our hands to now determine the future for humanity on earth. So yes, it's intergenerational justice, fundamentally.
often I get the question, what should we do? And they expect me to talk about um, mobility and, um how to reduce flying and all forms of consumer choices. And they get surprised when I say that the number one issue is talk to your friends.
for - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - advice - top leverage point - talk to people about the emergency - quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - top advice - top leverage point - talk about it
quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - top advice - top leverage point - talk about it - (see below)
we go from not understanding it to apathy in the span of an afternoon which is another issue. Um, so so what should we do?
for - question - planetary emergency - ignorance or apathy - what should we do?
question - planetary emergency - ignorance or apathy - what should we do? - Johan Rockstrom advocates for three simultaneous internventions that must be executed in order to achieve the following impacts: - Legally binding global governance regimes must be implemented: immediately - Paris Agreement - biodiversity agreements - Internalize all externalities - Implement a global price on carbon emissions of at least 100 USD / ton - Stop all expansion of human activity into intact nature
we have to challenge the world to understand that we are in this generation, Us, in charge today, sitting in the cockpit of planet Earth, putting the entire stability of the planet at risk in this generation.
for - quote - we are in the cockpit of planet earth - Johan Rockstrom
quote - we are in the cockpit of planet earth - Johan Rockstrom - (see below)
I don't think we have scientifically any reason to hesitate at all to say, not only do we have a climate crisis, we are in a planetary emergency.
for - quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom
quote - planetary emergency - Johan Rockstrom - (see below) - Emergencies is when you have<br /> - unacceptable risks and - running out of time. - That's a combination: - Unacceptable risk and - time is running out. - Emergency means time is short. That's what is the definition of an emergency.
what makes me doubly frustrated is that not only do we have all this evidence of, you know, potentially unmanageable risks. But we also have so much evidence that solving them is not a sacrifice.
for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - 2024 - double frustration - allowing situation to deteriorate - while there is no sacrifice
What should make us really concerned is the lack of leadership, is the lack of efforts of acting on that evidence. So if there's anything that all this leads for
for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - lack of keadership should concern us
even if we were successful in phasing out fossil fuels, we would still fail. on the climate boundary. We would still breach the 1. 5 degree Celsius boundary if we do not come back into the safe space on the biosphere boundaries. Because biodiversity, freshwater, land, and nutrients will determine the ability of the planet to buffer
for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - successful phase of of fossil fuels - is a necessary but not sufficient condition for station under 1.5 degree Celsius
this transition phase is like a gauntlet. It's very jumpy, it's very turbulent, you have winners and losers
for - quote - Johan Rockstrom - transition - is messy
for - interview - Johan Rockstrom - planetary boundaries
Die Daten des europäischen Klimaservice Copernicus ergeben, dass die Temperaturen erstmals über 12 Monate mehr als 1,5° über dem vorindustriellen Durchschnitt lagen. Jeder Monat seit dem vergangenen Juni war im globalen Durchschnitt der wärmste Monat seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen. Johan Rockström, der Direktor des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgen-Forschung, sprach von einer Warnung für die Menschheit, dass wir uns schneller als erwartet auf die 1,5° Grenze zubewegen. https://taz.de/EU-Klimadienst-Copernicus/!5991185/
Copernicus-Meldung: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2024
we need to make the transition acceptable and attractive for the vast majority of citizens, and the only way to do that, is to make the changes easy to adopt. This requires strong engagement with society at large, and policies that make sustainable life choices not only easier, but also cheaper and more attractive. Or, put it the other way around, it must be more expensive to destroy the planet or the health of our fellow citizens".
for: meme - make it expensive to destroy the planet, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - make it expensive to destroy the planet, key insight - make it expensive to destroy the planet
key insight
We need to trigger exponential change across sectors and geographies by phasing out fossil fuels while taking advantage of positive social and economic tipping points.
for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - positive tipping points, quote - social tipping points, social tipping points, stop, positive tipping points
quote: Johan Rockstrom
now we are facing a high risk of overshooting 1.5°C - at best - for several decades. Currently, we must admit that we do not know what the consequences are of such an overshoot, i.e., we do not know how long time the big tipping point systems - like the Gulf Stream or the Coral Reef systems, can cope with high risk temperatures above 1.5°C.
for: quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - uncertainty at 1.5 Deg C for years
quote: Johan Rockstrom
the focus of every Cop should not be at the whim of the Presidency - every Cop should focus on all areas where emissions reductions are needed. A system of smaller results-based meetings that focus on delivery, accountability, alignment with science, and safeguarding social justice is needed".
for: COP - suggestion for improvement
suggestion for improvement: COP
All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement, which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out
quote: Johan Rockstrom
Im Interview der Repubblica (hier auf Englisch) fordert Johan Rockström eine Konkretisierung der Ergebnisse der COP28 und eine Reform der UN-Klimakonferenzen. Er hebt die Ergebnisse des Global Tipping Points Report hervor und weist darauf hin, dass wir die Konsequenzen der kaum noch zu Überschreitung des 1,5°-Ziels über mehrere Jahrzehnte nicht kennen.
https://www.greenandblue.it/2023/12/31/news/johan_rockstrom_earth4all_scenarios-421790005/
Der Standardbericht zu dem neuen State of the climate-Report konzentriert sich auf die Forderung nach sofortigen Veränderungen in der Wirtschaft. Er enthält auch eine Übersicht zu den Temperaturanomalien in Österreich in diesem Jahr. https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000192443/hoechsttemperaturen-wie-2023-gab-es-womoeglich-erstmals-seit-100000-jahren
Mehr zum State of the climate 2023-Report: https://hypothes.is/search?q=tag%3A%22report%3A%202023%20state%20of%20the%20climate%22;
Durch die Überschreitung von 6 der 9 planetaren Grenzen wurde der „safe operating space for humanity“ verlassen. Die neue Studie analysiert auf Basis von 2000 Studien erstmals die Situation bei allen planetaren Grenzen. Als besonders bedrohlich schätzen die Forschenden ein, dass 4 direkt auf das Leben bezogene Grenzen überschritten wurden. Die dadurch mangelnde Resilienz könnte es auch unabhängig von Emissions-Senkungen unmöglich machen, das 1,5°-Ziel zu erreichen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/13/earth-well-outside-safe-operating-space-for-humanity-scientists-find
6 von 9 planetaren Grenzen wurden bereits überschritten, wie eine neue gemeinsame Studie von Erdsystemwissenschaftler:innen zeigt. Es handelt sich um die Grenzen bei globaler Erwärmung, Biosdiversität, Entwaldung, Schadstoffe, Stickstoffkreislauf und Süßwasser. Die Studie stammt vor allem von Autori:innen, die das Konzept der planetaren Grenzen entwickelt hatten. https://taz.de/Studie-zur-Belastung-des-Planeten/!5960174/
It is a major mistake in the current climate action debates, when big actors with interests in the oil, gas, and coal industry, use investments in nature based solutions or technologies for carbon dioxide removal (CDR), as “offsets” for the inability to phase out fossil-fuels. This will not work. Science is clear on this point – we need to phase out fossil-fuels AND restore nature to secure carbon sinks in soils and forests, AND to invest in CDR technologies. Additionality is the word of the day, not substitution.
for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - Industry greenwashing
quote
We cannot continue with double standards on fossil-fuels and renewable energy, or as a majority of countries are doing today – continue to sit on the fence, with green rhetoric but grey actions, which adds to the perception of widespread greenwashing.
for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote greenwashing
quote
Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position. And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions 00:34:42 I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work. Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan. And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,. Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess, when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'
for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing
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we're increasing emissions today between 1 and 2% per year. Now, to reduce emissions even in the global model runs we have, with optimistic I mean, overly optimistic negative emission technologies – assume mitigation pathways, as you know, between 5 and 7% per year. So that is three times revolution pace, at the current modeling runs. 00:33:47 If you take away negative emission technologies, you would exceed 10% very rapidly. You would be more the 10 to 15%. I would call that... That's not revolution, that is a complete disruption of the global economy. It's like a pace that is beyond... I mean then you need to bulldoze down coal-fired plants, basically. You would be in a complete global Marshall Plan. It's a war zone agenda.
for: quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - Johan Rockstrom - NET
stats
in a normal distribution, from over here you have the denialists and over here you have the environmental activists. But in between you have a lot of different types of people. And the majority are actually – we know this from opinion polls – they are very supportive of science. They're very supportive of and concerned about climate change. They want climate action. It's just that they live their normal lives, they have many preoccupations in life. 01:01:44 They have their children, their health, their school, their financing, their incomes. You know, many, many things to be worried about. But that's the question: how do we get this majority, the silent majority, to join us? And I don't think that the way to make them join us is to scare them. And I don't think the way to join is to fight with the denialists. I think the way to join... to make them join... is to show that this pathway can get a better life.
date: Sept., 2023
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better health, better security, better economy, secure job, better... Simply a more modern, attractive life.
I think we need to do much more of that. I totally agree with you. I actually think that we – and that's self-critical to me as well – I think we need to be more brave also going public with that engagement.
we have a crisis 00:49:16 And things have to change at the global level so fast that we need to correct big system failures at a very large scale. And I'm convinced that that can only be done top-down not bottom-up.
for: Johan Rockstrom - top down strategy, quote, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - climate top down strategy
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reaching zero by 2050 won't take us there
Die Earth Commission hat ein neues Konzept für Indikatoren der globalen Gesundheit entwickelt, dass sowohl die planetaren Belastungsgrenzen wie nachhaltige Entwicklung berücksichtigt. Bei sieben von acht dieser Indikatoren stellt die Kommission fest, dass die Grenze zu einer Krisensituation überschritten ist. Die Kommission wurde von führenden Forschungsinstituten zum Erdsystem und der Ökologie des Planeten gebildet. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/31/earth-health-failing-in-seven-out-of-eight-key-measures-say-scientists-earth-commission
Title
Author
Next year, the Earth Commission, including many of the scientists on this report, will issue a report outlinging the Earth System Boundaries (ESB) to hlep cities and corporations stay within planetary boundaries.
we're taking colossal risks with the future of civilization on Earth We're degrading life support system that we all depend on we're actually pushing 00:00:57 the entire Earth system to a point of destabilization pushing Earth outside of the state that has support civilization since we left the last ice age 10 000 years ago this requires a transformation to safe 00:01:11 and just Earth system boundaries for the whole world economy
!- Title : Leading the charge through earth’s new normal !- speakers : Johan Rockstrom et al.
“Exactly at the moment when we need a resilient biosphere, we are losing it. If we get too far from planetary boundaries, feedbacks from Earth will start to amplify our trajectory irreversibly toward a four-, five- or six-degree world.” Long pause.
!- for : Tipping Point Festival inspiration
In the deep past these setbacks were local. The overall experiment of civilization kept going, often by moving from an exhausted ecology to one with untapped potential. Human numbers were still quite small. At the height of the Roman Empire there are thought to have been only 200 million people on Earth. Compare that with the height of the British Empire a century ago, when there were two billion. And with today, when there are nearly eight. Clearly, things have moved very quickly since the Industrial Revolution took hold around the world. In A Short History of Progress, I suggested that worldwide civilization was our greatest experiment; and I asked whether this might also prove to be the greatest progress trap. That was 15 years ago.
Indeed, Wright is right to ask: Is our modern human civilization the greatest progress trap of all?
Exponential technological progress has shortened the time for dangerous levels of resource extraction and pollution loads to the extent that we face the potential of cascading global tipping points and enter a "hothouse earth" state: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Were this to happen, there is no place on earth that would be immune.
In hindsight, the unfortunate but predictable trend is one of every increasing size of progress traps, and ever shorter time windows when serious impacts occur. Today, it appears we have reached the largest size progress trap possible on a finite planet.