for - p(doom) - definition - stats - p(doom) - 0.01 to 99.999999%

p(doom) - definition - the "probability of doom" or the chances that AI takes over the planet or does something to destroy us,

stats - p(doom) - founders of AI - Yann LeCun - less than 0.01% - Geoff Hinton - 10% chance on the next 20 years - Yoshua Bengio - 20% - Roman Yampolskiy, AI safety scientist and director of the Cyber Security Laboratory at the University of Louisville - 99.999999%

for - stats - climate crisis - global mean temperature gap in models vs measurement of - 0.2 Deg C - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec

for - stats - 80% of all used software is open source - from Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20

for - stats - climate crisis - example - positive impacts of mutualisation / sharing - car sharing - 1 Shared car can replace 9 to 13 cars without loss of mobility - from Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20

for - stats - motivation for cosmolocal - high inefficacy of resource and energy use - 3x for transport as for production - from Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20

for - stats - birth - 490,000 babies born every day - 5 to 6 every second - Anna Veerwal - Doula - birth educator

for - inequality - stats - global income thresholds for top 0.1% to bottom 50%

inequality - stats - global income thresholds for top 0.1% to bottom 50% - top 0.1% - $38,000,000 - next 0.9% below - $10,000,000 (rest of top 1%) - next 9% below - $ 1,800,000 (rest of top 10%) - next 40% below - $165,382 (rest of top 50%) - bottom 50% - $0

for - stats - carbon inequality - poorest 50% emit 12% - richest 10% emit 48% - Chancel, 2022

for - stats - biodiversity stewardship - 5% of the world's population - stewarding 80% of the world's biodiversity - Post Capitalist Philanthropy - Alnoor Ladha - Lynn Murphy - 2023

for - stats - philanthropy - possibly the world's 8th largest industry - with little transparency - Post Capitalist Philanthropy Webinar 1 - Alnoor Ladha - Lynn Murphy - 2023

for - stats - 27% of the gap can be reduced by wind and solar deployment and 20% by action on forests, while efficiency, electrification, fuel switching in buildings, transport and industry sectors can also contribute - UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages

for - stats - Current National Declared Commitments (NDCs) only take us to a disastrous 2.6 Deg. C over the course of the century.- UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages

for - stats - GHG emissions grew 1.3 % year-on-year to 57.1 Gton CO2 eq in 2023 - UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages - stats - 7.5% decarbonization rate is now required every year to stay under 1.5 Deg C - UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Key Messages

for - stats - 2030 emissions - 42% lower than 2019 to stay within 1.5 Deg C - UN 2024 Emission's Gap Report

for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 20% reduction in households

for - stats - climate change - emissions reductions from behavioral change - 33% reduction in EU

for - stats - carbon emissions reduction during covid - decarbonization rate - 17% in early April 2020 and 8.6% average between Jan and Apr 2020 compared to same period in 2019

for - stats - defeat of incumbents since 2020 in Western democracies is about 80%

for - stats - most people in America agree on 85 - 90% of issues - unpack why and how the 10 - 15% is made so divisive

for - stats - Perato's law - social transformation - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - climate communication - 80% will change if we listen, 19% will require deeper conversations - 1% will not change - Roger Hallam

for - stats - internet - average connection speed - hasn't increased as much as storage and processing power

for - stats - green growth - 2024 - Global South vs Global North

stats - green growth - 2024 - Global South has - 60% of world population - 20% of fossil fuel production - fossil fuel production in decline - 70% of global renewable resource potential - In 2024, 87% of capex of electricity generation is renewable - From 2019 to 2024, renewable energy has grown 23% annually and now supplies 9% of its electricity - 17% of Global South has already overtaken Global North in % of renewable electricty generation

for - quote - organized crime in Cape Town

quote - organized crime in Cape Town - Andre Lincoln - Caryn Dolley - (see below) - Why you don’t see it is because it’s subtle, very sophisticated and it is a massive business. - How many restaurants and clubs on these famous streets are paying protection money to criminals? It's pretty startling - And what about construction shakedowns? 63 billion Rand of projects impacted in 2019 - https://hyp.is/Smjb3I5CEe-fXHsx-Sy8kQ/www.inclusivesociety.org.za/post/overview-of-the-construction-mafia-crisis-in-south-africa

for - stats - construction mafia impacts - South Africa - 2019 - R63 billion - Overview of the Construction Mafia Crisis in South Africa - Inclusive Society Institute - 2023

for - critique - extreme wealth inequality cannot be avoided for the greater improvement of society - The Gospel of Wealth - Andrew Carnegie - stats - Mondragon corporation - comparison of pay difference between highest paid and lowest paid - adjacency - Gandhi quote - Andrew Carnegie beliefs in The Gospel of Wealth

critique - extreme wealth inequality cannot be avoided for the greater improvement of society - The Gospel of Wealth - Andrew Carnegie - It's a matter of degree - Wealth differences within US corporations of 344 to 1 are obscene and not necessary, as proven by - Wealth difference of 6 to 1 in Mondragon federation of cooperatives - To quote - Gandhi, there is enough to meet everyone's needs but not enough to meet everyone's greed - The great problem with such large wealth disparity is that those who know how to game the system can earn obscene amounts of money - and since the concept of luxury goods is made desirable and proportional to monetary wealth, it creates a positive feedback loop of insatiability - The combination of engaging in ever greater luxury lifestyle and power is intoxicating and addictive

to - stats - Mondragon corporation - comparison of pay difference between highest paid and lowest paid - https://hyp.is/QAxx-o14Ee-_HvN5y8aMiQ/www.csmonitor.com/Business/2024/0513/income-inequality-capitalism-mondragon-corporation

for - critique - extreme wealth a reward for rare management skills - Andrew Carnegie - The Gospel of Wealth - Mondragon counterexample - to - stats - Mondragon pay difference between highest and lowest paid - article - In this Spanish town, capitalism actually works for the workers - Christian Science Monitor - Erika Page - 2024, June 7

critique - extreme wealth a reward for rare management skills - Andrew Carnegie - The Gospel of Wealth - Mondragon counterexample - This is invalidated today by large successful cooperatives such as Mondragon

to - stats - Mondragon corporation - comparison of pay difference between highest paid and lowest paid - https://hyp.is/QAxx-o14Ee-_HvN5y8aMiQ/www.csmonitor.com/Business/2024/0513/income-inequality-capitalism-mondragon-corporation

for - stats - Mondragon corporation - pay difference comparison between highest paid and lowest paid - from - essay - The Gospel of Wealth - Andrew Carnegie - Carnegie organization

from - essay - The Gospel of Wealth - Andrew Carnegie - Carnegie organization - https://hyp.is/dIoiDo16Ee-0n2OpOK3lwg/www.carnegie.org/about/our-history/gospelofwealth/

stats - Mondragon corporation - comparison of pay difference between highest paid and lowest paid - Modragon - 6 to 1 - typical US - 344 to 1 - typical Spain - 77 to 1

for - Link rot study - on NY Times archive - show how pervasive it is - stats - link rot - NY Times study - digital decay - link rot - internet is ephemeral - dead links

for - digital delay stats - Pew Research

summary - That digital decay and link rot are digital facts of life means that annotating information on the page that is relevant for you to preserve is a good practice. - It may appear redundant but if that page disappears in the future, you will be glad you have preserved it in a place accessible to you - in your annotations!

for - stats - link rot - digital decay study - NY Times - 550,000 articles - 2.2 million links - 6% dead in 2018 articles - 72% dead in 1998 articles.

for - digital delay stats - Pew Research

summary - That digital decay and link rot are digital facts of life means that annotating information on the page that is relevant for you to preserve is a good practice. - It may appear redundant but if that page disappears in the future, you will be glad you have preserved it in a place accessible to you - in your annotations!

for stats - digital decay - twitter -20% of tweets are no longer publicly visible 0ne month later

for - stats - digital stats - 54% of Wikipedia pages contain at least one link in their “References” section that points to a page that no longer exists.

for - stats - digital decay - 23% of news webpages contain at least one broken link, - stats - digital decay - 21% of webpages from government sites contain at least one broken link

for stats - digital stats - 38% of webpages in 2013 no longer exist May 2024

for - stats - digital decay - 25% of webpages that existed from 2013 to 2023 no longer exist as of Oct 2023

stats - digital decay - A quarter of all webpages that existed at one point between 2013 and 2023 are no longer accessible as of October 2023

for - stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - intact natural systems - 50 to 60% global land need to be intact

for - stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - human modified ecosystems -absolute minimum of 10% - below this, many of Nature's contribution to people would no longer be provided

for - stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - human modified ecosystems - minimum of 20 to 25% natural / semi-natural habitat per square kilometer

for - stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - human modified ecosystems - 6 critical Nature's Contribution to People at local scales

stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - human modified ecosystems - 6 critical Nature's Contribution to People at local scales - pollination pest and disease control - water-quality regulation - soil protection - natural hazards mitigation - recreation

for - stats - earth system boundary - biodiversity - intact natural systems - 15% below ESB in 2018

for - biodiversity - impact of monoculture diet

biodiversity - impact of monoculture diet - FAO study done before 2000 and often cited shows that 75% of the global diet comes from 12 plant and 5 animal food sources

to - stats - progress trap - monoculture - table of 12 plant and 5 animal species that make up 75% of world's diet - https://hyp.is/iznepFWoEe-umbNyOGVqrg/thefuturemarket.com/biodiversity

• progress trap - monoculture - instead of agrobiodiversity - examples of
  • https://hyp.is/kV_NalWpEe-xFufxGAqPhw/foodtechconnect.com/2019/01/07/biodiverse-food-intersection-taste-sustainability/

for - stats - global annual economic cost of insect pollinators - 235 to 577 billion USD - OECD 2019

for - stats - ecosystem disruption and financial losses study - Dutch investors risk 510 billion EUR or 36% of the Dutch 1.4 trillion EURO investment is at risk

for - stats - table of 12 plants and 5 animal species that make up 75% of the world's food (FAO)

from - Swiss RE Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) index report - https://hyp.is/Jqw9MlWpEe-DhnehMbtbjA/www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:a7fe3dca-c4d6-403b-961c-9fab1b2f0455/swiss-re-institute-expertise-publication-biodiversity-and-ecosystem-services.pdf

for - stats - table of 12 plants and 5 animal species that make up 75% of the world's food (FAO)

for - stats - climate crisis intervention - urgency - reduce emissions by 50% in 5 years!

for - stats - anthropology - she of modern humans - 250,000 year stats - anthropology - she of modern humans - 250,000 years - quote - Ronald Wright - update from 50,000 to 250,000 years old

for - stats - seawater farming crops - 300 edible species

stats - seawater farming crops - 300 edible species - education campaigns and cooking classes to publicize and new edible crops

for - stats - seawater farming - soil nutrition impacts - 8% increase in 6 months

for - stats - agriculture - 1/3 of world's soils are degraded

for - stats - carbon sequestration - salt marshes - 30x more sequestration than rainforests

for - stats - whites become minority percentage of US working class by 2032

stats - whites become minority percentage of US working class by 2032 - From Economic Policy Institute

to - People of color will be a majority of the American working class in 2032 -

for - stats - US trade deficit with China

stats US trade deficit with China - Due to the cheaper cost of manufacturing in China, many U.S. companies have outsourced their labor abroad. - This has resulted in - a massive trade deficit between the U.S. and China and - has led to a loss of around 2.4 million jobs since 2013, or - almost two-thirds of all U.S. manufacturing jobs

for - quote - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - stats - Mexico - NAFTA job loss

quote - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - - This decline in agricultural production, - coupled with a sheer reduction in wages due to a lack of labor and regulatory standards in the agree- ment, - created over 1.3 million lost jobs in the Mexican agricultural sector alone, - leading to an unprecedented level of immigration into the United States

stats - Mexico - NAFTA job loss - Mexico lost 1.3 million jobs due to mass migration to the US due to NAFTA

for - stats - 25 to 34 year old people of color is earliest U.S. working class cohort to transition in the year 2021.

for - stats - majority of U.S. working class will be people of color by 2029

stats - majority of U.S. working class will be people of color by 2029 - prime-age U.S. working class cohort is age 25 to 54

for stats - U.S. working class projected to become majority people of color by 2032.

stats - U.S. working class projected to become majority people of color by 2032. - source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

for - stats - U.S. working class - 666.1% of civilian workforce between 18 and 64

for - stats - comparison of cognitive powers - AGI AI agents vs human researcher

stats - comparison of cognitive powers - AGI AI agents vs human researcher - 100 million AGI AI researchers - each AGI AI researcher is 100x more efficient that its equivalent human AI researcher - total productivity increase = 100 million x 100 = 10 billion human AI researchers! Wow!

for - stats - AI evolution - equivalent of 100 million human researchers working 24/7

stats - AI evolution - equivalent of 100 million human researchers working 24/7 - By 2027, the industry's aim is to have tens of millions of GPU training clusters, running - millions of copies of automated AI researchers, or the equivalent of - 100 million human AI researchers working 24/7

for - stats - AI evolution - Math benchmark - 2022 to 2024

stats - AI evolution - Math benchmark - 2022 to 2024 - 50% increase in accuracy over 2 years - inference accuracy improved 1000x or 3 Orders Of Magnitude (OOM)

for - stats - AI - evolution - Math benchmark

stats - AI - evolution - Math benchmark - 2021 - GPT3 scored 5% - 2022 - scored 50% - 2024 - Gemini 1.5 Pro scored 90%

for - stats - AI music platform Udio - tracks created per day - over 800000

O Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI, do inglês Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) é uma métrica amplamente utilizada na área de sensoriamento remoto para quantificar a vegetação em uma determinada área a partir de imagens de satélite ou aeronaves. Este índice é baseado na reflexão da luz em diferentes comprimentos de onda pelas plantas.

for - renewable energy - deep geothermal - stats - deep geothermal

stats - deep geothermal - 20 km deep hole can access super-hot temperatures in greater than 90% of locations across the globe

stats - 60% of Africa's food is composed of: - wheat - rice - maize

for - stats - Africa - main crops - Africa - main crops

for - stats - carbon footprint of stone, steel, concrete

stats - carbon footprint - stone, steel , concrete - ( see below)

• The Inventory of Embodied Carbon and Energy 2019 says carbon footprint of the following building materials are:
  • ‘General stone’ - 0.079kg carbon per kg .
  • Concrete - 0.15kg carbon per kg and
  • Steel - 2.8kg carbon per kg.

for - stone availability - stats - stone availability

stone stats - rough calculation below

• Question: Is there enough stone?
• According to the Global Cement and Concrete Association,
  • annual worldwide concrete production is roughly 1.6 km3.
• Due to its higher strength its equivalent in stone would be about one quarter of that volume.
• To put this into context,
  • the volume of a small, Ben Nevis-ish mountain is about 30km3;
  • all the world’s buildings* would only make a 56km3 or two Nevis,
  • the Earth’s crust (rock) has a volume of 10 billion km3.
• Assumptions for above calculations:
  • 7bn people living in threes in
  • 120m2 live work units made of
  • 200mm slabs.

for - definition - Weird - stats - Weird countries - greatest sense of self - inspiration - introduce - Sarah Stein Lubrano - Rachell - Indyweb - Indranet

definition - Weird - Western Educated Industrialized Rich Democratic

inspiration - introduce Rachel and Sarah to Indyweb / Indranet - As soon as I heard Rachel and Sarah talk about the prominent and unique WEIRD feature of sense of self, - I immediately thought that we must introduce them to our work on the Indyweb / |ndranet as our system is designed based on the epistemology that - we are not a thing - we are a process - we are evolution in realtime action - the very use of the Indyweb / Indranet reinforces the reality that we are a process and not a fixed entity - so deconstructs the social construct of the self

for - silver economy - stats - silver economy

stats - silver economy - 2024 - 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion USD) - 6 % GDP - 2035 - 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion USD) - 10% GDP

question - silver economy - climate change impacts? transition impacts?

for - Gen Z influence on 2024 US election - Trump 2024 win - an existential threat to humanity - stats - Gen Z - 2024 U.S. election

comment - Gen Z can play a role in determining the future of human civilization. How? Their vote in the upcoming 2024 U.S. election. If Donald Trump wins, it can pose an existential threat to human civilization - https://hyp.is/mwqwpsA-Ee6bAd9C2MLeKg/www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-2024-presidency-climate-change-rcna131928

stats - Gen Z - 2024 U.S. election

• In the next presidential election, 40.8 million members of Gen Z (ages 18-27 in 2024) will be eligible to vote,
  • including 8.3 million newly eligible youth (ages 18-19 in 2024)
  • who will have aged into the electorate since the 2022 midterm election.
• These young people have tremendous potential to
  • influence elections and to
  • spur action on issues they care about
• if they are adequately reached and supported by parties, campaigns, and organizations.

for - stats - % of people inhabiting earthen buildings

for - stats - spiritual but not religious

stats - spiritual but not religious - Pew research study shows 22% of Americans now identify as spiritual but not religious - Only 11% say that are involved in a religious community

for - stats - Africa - food insecurity - adjancency - food colonialism - food insecurity - food dependency

stats - food insecurity - 20 plant species make up 90% of food consumed in Africa - 3 crops introduced by the Green Revolution make up 60% of all calories consumed - wheat - maize - rice

• African countries have become reliant on a few food items.

• Just 20 plant species now provide 90% of our food, with three

  • wheat,
  • maize and
  • rice

accounting for 60% of all calories consumed on the continent and globally.

• This deprives the continent of diverse food sources,

at the very time when research has found

massive food and nutrition insecurity in Africa.

• By 2020, about 20% of the continent’s population (281.6 million) faced hunger.
• This figure is likely to have increased,
  • given the impacts of successive droughts, floods and COVID-19.

Yet historically, Africa had

- 30,000 edible plant species, and 
- 7,000 were traditionally cultivated or foraged for food.

The continent is a treasure trove of agrobiodiversity (a diversity of types of crops and animals) and

• its countries could easily feed themselves.

for - climate crisis - food production impacts - stats - high emissions scenario -food production

stats - high emissions scenario - over 30% of food crop production and animal production impacted - mostly around equator

• for: climate mitigation, stats - 40% reduction by 2030, quote - Johan Rockstrom, quote - fossil fuel phase out

• quote: Johan Rockstrom

  • All stakeholders in the world must now act according to the agreed Cop28 output, and deliver on the CopP28 Global Stocktake Agreement,
    • which means rapidly transitioning away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at more than 40% reductions by 2030
• Date: Dec 31, 2023

• for: stats - CCS, Kevin Anderson - CCS stats

• stats

  • actually, IEA shows that we are currently capturing 45 million tons currently (Dec 2023)
  • 45 million tons captured in 2021 (IEA CCS 2021)
  • out of 36.3 billion tonnes emitted (IEA, 2021)
  • 0.124% captured in 2021 and
  • 3x current rate at 125 Mt/yr by 2030
  • far from enough

• reference

  • https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2
  • https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage

• for: stats - CCS, stats - CCUS

• stats

  • 125 Mt / year by 2030

• for: stats - CCS 2021, CCUS - 2021

• stats

  • CCS / CCUS in 2021: 45 Mt CO2

• for: pernicious cascades - qualities, stats - pernicious cascade, synchronized crisis

• stats - pernicious cascades - climate change

• Pernicious cascades - qualities
  • amplifying
    • global mean temp
      • in 2000: 0.72 Deg C warmer than pre-industrial (1850)
      • in 2020 1.2 Deg C warmer than pre-industrial
  • accelerating
    • warming per decade:
      • 1970 to 2010 - 0.18 Deg C / decade
      • 2010 to 2040 - 0.27 Deg C / decade
  • syncrhonizing
    • many systems are becoming unstable:
      • higher inflation
      • higher levels of precarity
      • higher levels of inequality
      • destabilizing climate / increase in extreme weather events
      • geopolitical conflicts
      • political polarization
      • misinformation
      • major migration
    • Cascade institute does not view these as random events - not a set of coincidence or "perfect storm"
    • instead, invisible synchronization and causality between events
    • our research reveals the invisible connections

• for: stats - major stressors of the polycrisis, trigger events

• stats: major stressors of the polycrisis

  • profile of a crisis
    • a crisis occurs when
  • a major stressor occurs
    • there are between 15 and 20 of them
  • and combines with much less predictable "trigger" events
    • also called stochastic or random events

• for: stats - bank emissions

• stats: bank emissions

  • if your bank is equivalent to the largest 11 US banks, the Project Drawdown report estimates
    • 0.24 metric tons of CO2 for every $1,000 USD saved in the bank
    • between 20 to 30 percent of your money is likely used to finance fossil fuel projects or other carbon intensive sectors like mining.

• for: stats - staying under 1.5 Deg C

• stats: staying under 1.5 Deg C

  • is equivalent to shutting down the economies of China, the US, India, Japan and Russia

• for: stats - oil and gas - steep drop in revenues of fossil fuel producer economies

• stats: oil and gas - steep drop in revenues of fossil fuel reliant economies

  • per capita net income from oil and natural gas among producer economies will be 60% lower in 2030 in a 1.5 °C scenario.relative to revenues between 2010 and 2022.

• question

  • many producer economies are not diversifying into clean energy fast enough to compensate for these steep revenue drops

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - required investments in clean energy

• stats: oil and gas industry - required investments in clean energy

  • 50 % of capital expenditure by 2030 and reduction in scope 1 and 2 emissions

• comment

  • Wow, is it really possible for the industry to spend 50 % of their budget on clean energy in 7 years? This would be unprecedented, given that greenwashing is all we've ever seen in the past.

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - repurposing for clean energy

• stats: oil and gas industry - repurposing for clean energy

  • only 30 % of the energy consumed in a clean energy future within 1.5 Deg C comes from low emission fuels and technologies that benefit from oil and gas industry resources
  • this leaves a huge deficit of 70 %.

• question

  • How will the transition account for these human and technological resources?

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - fight for survival

• stats: oil and gas industry - fight for survival

  • competing oil producers will have to reach an agreement on who has the right to produce the remaining carbon budget
  • 24 million barrels a day are still produced in a 1.5 Deg C scenario but are largely uncombusted
    • 75 % of that will be used in petrochemical and other industry
    • 920 billion cubic meters of natural gas
      • 50% of this for hydrogen production

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production

• stats - oil and gas industry - steep drop in production

  • no new fields can be developed to meet a 1.5 Deg C scenario
  • any new developments face the certain risk of being a stranded asset
  • by 2040, 7 million less barrels of oil are produced each day to meet a 1.5 Deg C scenario

• for: stats - oil and gas industry operational emissions

• stats: oil and gas industry - operational emissions

  • 15% of all global emissions are from the production, transport and processing of fossil fuels

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - clean energy investments

• comment

  • Inclusive transformation
    • Clearly, transforming the dirty fossil fuel industry into clean energy industry requires migrating as much of those 12 million dirty energy jobs as possible. We can't alienate the fossil fuel industry.
    • the barometer to measure this paradigm shift in fossil fuel industry narrative is their investment into clean energy. Over the years, majors have acted like politicians, promising significant clean energy investment, then backsliding. There is no more time for that.

• for: stats - oil and gas industry - profit split, stats - oil and gas industry - reserves split

• stats: oil and gas industry profit split

  • 50 % to governments
  • 40 % to investments
  • 10% to shareholders and debt

• stats: oil and gas reserve splits

  • majors: 13 % production, 13 % reserves
  • National Oil Companies: 50% production, 60 % reserves

• stats - oil and gas vs clean energy returns

• stats: oil and gas vs clean energy returns between 2010 and 2022

  • 6 to 9 % for oil and gas
  • 6 % for clean energy

• for: stats - fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world

• stats: fossil fuel industry - valuation in a 1.5 Deg C world

  • current 2023 valuation: 6 trillion USD
  • current NDCs met (short of a 1.5 Deg C world): 4.5 trillion USD
  • 1.5 Deg C world: 2.4 trillion USD

for: stats - oil and gas industry, stats - fossil fuel industry

• stats: oil and gas industry
• stats: fossil fuel industry
  • The fossil fuel industry's production, transport and processing operations accounts for 15% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

• for: stats - oil and gas industry, stats - fossil fuel industry

• stats - oil and gas industry

• stats - fossil fuel industry
  • Oil and gas producers account for approximately 1% of total clean energy investment
  • 60 % of that comes from 4 companies

• for: stats - oil and gas industry, stats - fossil fuel industry

• stats - oil and gas industry

• stats - fossil fuel industry
  • supplies approximately 50% of all total global energy
  • employs 12 million people directly
  • Since 2018, annual revenues average 13 trillion USD
  • revenue split
    • 50 % to governments
    • 40% to investment
    • 10% to shareholders and debt
  • Major oil companies account for 13 % of all reserves
  • National Oil Companies (NOC) account for
    • over 50% of all production
    • close to 60% of all reserves

• for: Nationally Determined Contributions insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C, NDC insufficient to meet 1.5 Deg C

• stats: climate change - NDC

  • current NDCs
    • 45% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050
  • NDCs to meet 1.5 Deg C
    • 75% reduction in fossil fuel usage by 2050

• for: stats - sleep apnea - most likely time to die

• stats: sleep apnea

  • most likely to die between midnight and 6am

• for: stats - sleep apnea cycle

• stats: sleep apnea cycle

  • can happen up to 100 times an hour!

I feel like college (on paper) do so much to help their students adjust to their new lives and the new world that they are exposed to on campus. What can they change to make this better?

• for: carbon sinks, carbon sinks - oceans, carbon sinks - forests, stats, stats, forest carbon sink, stats - ocean carbon sink, question, question - when do carbon sinks turn into carbon sources?

• stats

  • forests are absorbing 25% of carbon dioxide emissions
  • oceans are absorbing 50% of carbon dioxide emissions
  • these are stressing these carbon sinks

• question

  • how much longer can they absorb without unintended consequences playing out?

• for: stats, stats - invasive species - red fire ants,
• stats:
  • prefers farms and cities
    • could infest 50% of urban areas
  • could inhabit up to 7% of EU continent
  • infestation vectors
    • walk
    • fly
    • carried by wind
    • shipping
      • Sicily, the site of discovery, ships a variety of plants across the Mediterranean
    • Southern Spain offers ideal climate for red fire ants
    • Climate change could increase its range by 25% by 2050.

• for: Canadian forest fires, stats - Canadian forest fires
• stats: 2017
  • pyrocumulonimbus cloud rose 13 km into the stratosphere, a world record
  • 12,000 square kilometers burned
• stats: 2023
  • to the date of this article (Sept 1, 2023), 100,000 square kilometers burned

• for: climate departure, Camilo Mora, stats, stats - climate departure - canada, climate departure - montreal, climate departure - vancouver, climate departure - toronto
• paraphrase
  • Cities across the country will begin to reach “climate departure”: a symbolic rubicon, after which a climate falls completely outside historical norms.
  • Even the coldest year, going forward, will be hotter than the hottest in the past.
  • The concept was defined in 2013 by researchers at the University of Hawai’i, who crunched computer models of 39 different planetary futures to arrive at their predictions.
  • In a scenario consistent with roughly two degrees warming by mid-century,
• stats: start - Montreal is estimated to reach its departure point in 2072, - Toronto in 2074 and - Vancouver in 2083.
• stats: end
• comment
  • the article doesn't mention two important points
    • a number of places are expected to reach climate departure in the 2020's, such as
      • Manokwari, Indonesia in 2020
      • Lagos and Jakarta in 2029
    • Even if we decarbonize at the most aggresive RCP pathway, it would not prevent climate departure, but only delay it by a few decades
  • The implications are profound. It means that the living organisms on most places on the planet will be on a path to extinction or migration. The entire biosphere will be in migration and this also has profound implications on human social and economic systems. Species whose livelihood billions of people depend on will be migrating to other parts of the environment, potentially devastating large swathes of local economies the world over.
• Reference:
  • climate departure global map (2013)
    • https://manoa.hawaii.edu/news/attachments/img6034_3468l.gif
  • Annotation of Dr. Camilo Mora's 2013 paper on climate departure:
    • https://bafybeieahubpyssaodlciia3o3rminifeb63mpmgafqxliqj4nwilkojze.ipfs.4everland.io/

• for: cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries, downscaled planetary boundaries, leverage point

• stats

  • 10000 to 1 million is optimum size
• question: investigate rationale

• for: climate change impacts - dietary, climate change impacts - meat eating, carbon footprint - meat, leverage point - meat eating
• title: Demographic and Socioeconomic Correlates of Disproportionate Beef Consumption among US Adults in an Age of Global Warming
• author: Donald Rose

• date: Aug. 30, 2023

• stats

  • study based on NHANES study of 10, 248 U.S. adults between 2015 and 2018 indicated that 12% accounted for all beef consumed

• for: climate change impacts - meat, carbon footprint - meat, leverage point - food, stats, stats - meat eating
• title:
• stats
  • 12% OF AMERICANS EAT HALF OF ALL BEEF CONSUMED IN A DAY
• date: Aug. 30, 2023
• source: https://www.futurity.org/beef-food-climate-change-2967702-2/
• cited paper: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/17/3795

• for: climate change - impacts, extinction, biodiversity loss, fish kill, salmon dieoff, stats, stats - salmon, logging, human activity

• paraphrase

• stats

  • None of the 28 streams Cunningham and his colleagues studied hit summertime highs warmer than 25.9 C,
  • the point where warming water can become lethal.
  • But in four rivers, temperatures climbed past 20.3 C,
    • the threshold where some have found juvenile coho stop growing.
  • In some watersheds, deforestation rates climbed to 59 per cent.

• comment

  • deforestation may be a contributing factor but there are also other variables like changes in glacial melt water

-for: salmon survival temperature, stats, stats - salmon, salmon dieoff, climate change - impacts, fish kill - paraphrase -stats - One study found once temperatures climb past 20.3 C, - salmon stop growing because they can't get enough food to satisfy their metabolism.

• for: search engine manipulation effect, SEME, voting, voting - bias, voting - manipulation, voting - search engine bias, democracy - search engine bias, quote, quote - Robert Epstein, quote - search engine bias, stats, stats - tilting elections
• paraphrase
• quote
  • In our early experiments, reported by The Washington Post in March 2013,
    • http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/could-google-tilt-a-close-election/2013/03/29/c8d7f4e6-9587-11e2-b6f0-a5150a247b6a_story.html?ref=hackernoon.com
  • we discovered that Google’s search engine had the power to shift the percentage of undecided voters supporting a political candidate by a substantial margin without anyone knowing.
  • 2015 PNAS research on SEME
    • http://www.pnas.org/content/112/33/E4512.full.pdf?with-ds=yes&ref=hackernoon.com
    • stats begin
    • search results favoring one candidate
    • could easily shift the opinions and voting preferences of real voters in real elections by up to 80 percent in some demographic groups
    • with virtually no one knowing they had been manipulated.
    • stats end
    • Worse still, the few people who had noticed that we were showing them biased search results
    • generally shifted even farther in the direction of the bias,
    • so being able to spot favoritism in search results is no protection against it.
    • stats begin
    • Google’s search engine 
      • with or without any deliberate planning by Google employees 
    • was currently determining the outcomes of upwards of 25 percent of the world’s national elections.
    • This is because Google’s search engine lacks an equal-time rule,
      • so it virtually always favors one candidate over another, and that in turn shifts the preferences of undecided voters.
    • Because many elections are very close, shifting the preferences of undecided voters can easily tip the outcome.
    • stats end

• for: stats, stats - microbiome, human microbiome, stats - human microbiome
• stats
• paraphrase
  • One hundred trillion cells is the approximate number of microorganisms in your body,
  • that's ten times greater than the number of your own cells.
  • The micrbiome is about 2% of our body weight
  • That's about one and a half kilograms

• for: stats, intentional community, intentional communities, - stats - intentional communities
  • intentional communities fail at a rate slightly higher than most startups
  • startup failure rate is around 90%
  • longevity of Fortune 500 companies listed in 1955 to 2017
    • failure rate of 88%
  • S&P companies average lifespan: 15 years

• for: stats, intentional community, intentional communities, stats - intentional communities
  • intentional communities fail at a rate slightly higher than most startups

• for: W2W, TPF, stats, inequality, wealth redistribution, wealth tax, quote, quote - wealth tax, quote - inequality, stats, stats - inequality, stats - wealth tax
• quote
• stats
  • An annual wealth tax of just 5% on multi-millionaires and billionaires
  • could raise US $1.7 trillion a year
  • enough to lift 2 billion people out of poverty
• author Institute for Policy (2023)
• comment
  • that breaks down to approximately $US 1,000 per person for 2 billion people from the 1% elites
  • this is pretty reasonable
  • W2W can begin with this simple VOLUNTARY ASK
  • if the multi-millionaires and billionaires do just this consistently, then it is so little from their coffers and they could avoid a wealth tax by simply stepping up voluntarily
  • Could W2W motivate them to?

• for: stats, quote, stats - homophobia - war, quote - homophobia - war, evolution - homophobia, homophobia - war
• quote
• stats
  • estimates indicate that nearly 20-30% of our male ancestors died in intergroup conflicts
• comment
  • wow!

• for: intentional community, intentional communities, intentional communities - failure, stats, stats - intentional communities
• stats
  • of 478 intentional communities since the 1820s,
  • 112 exist worldwide in the last 30 years (1988 - 2018

• for: intentional community, intentional communities, intentional communities - failure, stats, stats - intentional communities
• stats
  • of 478 intentional communities since the 1820s,
  • 112 exist worldwide in the last 30 years (1988 - 2018

• for carbon inequality, carbon emissions - air travel, carbon emissions - concerts, stats - air travel - concerts
• paraphrase
• stats
  • The Shift Project has estimated that
    • if only 3% of festival-goers attending the Vieilles Charrues Festival come by plane, they account for more than 60% of carbon emissions linked to public transport!
  • Tomorrowland concert - close to 25,000 festival-goers fly in via "party flights"
  • North America Burning Man - 20% of festival goers fly in
  • In general, the largest footprint for famous cultural events is air travel

• Quote
  • carbon inequality stat
    • 1% of the world's population is responsible for 50% of emissions from commercial air transport

yacht stats - 2021: 5245 superyachts of lengths 30-180m - 1990: 1090 superyachts of lengths 30-180m - stats - yachts - quote - yachts

Quotable carbon inequality stats: - the top 1% responsible for 17% of total emissions, - the top 10% for 48%, - the bottom 50% for12% - stats carbon inequality - quote carbon inequality - 2019

// A key question is also this: - what are individuals using those carbon emissions for? - is it being used just for luxury consumption - or is it being used to develop and actionize scalable low carbon strategies? - if it is the later, it could be seen as a de-carbon investment

Yacht stats: - close to two thirds of the overall carbon footprint of those billionaires owning yachts is caused by yacht-ownership. - Carbon footprint is - 6500 times greater than the global average of 4.5 t CO2 per person per year, - 300,000 times greater than the poorest, at 0.1 t CO2 per person and year - stats - carbon inequality - quote - carbon inequality

Quotable carbon inequality stats: - top 0.01% emit more than 2300 t CO2-e per capita in 2019, - global average is 6 t CO2-e - therefore, the top 0.01% emit 2300/6 = 383x more than the global average. - quote - carbon inequality - stats - carbon inequality

This is less than I thought it would be.

High-level view of the 3 different types of heterogeneity (clinical, methodological, statistical). I used these definitions as the basis for some Anki cards

I came here to get the handout for Markov chains mentions in Lecture 31: Markov chains | Statistics 110. Lectures give a great intuition behind the equations, their motivation, and their limitations.

Look into what Dr. Miho Ohsaki changed about the clustering subroutine in her work and how it allowed for "more meaningful pattern discovery"

Look into Eamonn Keogh's papers that won "best paper awards"

http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~eamonn/meaningless.pdf Paper that argues cluster time series subsequences is "meaningless". tl;dr: radically different distributions end up converging to translations of basic sine or trig functions. Wonder if constructing a simplicial complex does anything?

Note that one researcher changed the algorithm to produce potentially meaningful results

PDF summary by Cochrane for planning a meta-analysis at the protocol stage. Gives guidance on how to anticipate & deal with various types of heterogeneity (clinical, methodological , & statistical). Link to paper

Covers - ways to assess heterogeneity - courses of action if substantial heterogeneity is found - methods to examine the influence of effect modifiers (either to explore heterogeneity or because there's good reason to suggest specific features of participants/interventions/study types will influence effects of the intervention. - methods include subgroup analyses & meta-regression

If the statistical heterogeneity is larger that what's expected by chance alone, then what does that imply? That there's either clinical or methodological heterogeneity within the pooled studies.

What's the impact of the presence of clinical heterogeneity? The statistical heterogeneity (variation of effects/results of interventions) becomes greater than what's expected by chance alone

What's happens if methodological heterogeneity is present? The statistical heterogeneity (variation of effects/results of interventions) becomes greater than what's expected by chance alone

I think this is was Thomas Frank was referring to in his YT video when he said "direct hands-on experience ... is often not the best way to learn something. And more recent cognitive research has confirmed this and shown that for basic concepts a more abstract learning model is actually better."

By "more abstract", I guess he meant what this paper calls "non-interactive". However, even though Frank claims this (which is suggested by the percentile increases shown in Quadrants I & II), no variance is given and the authors even state that, in the case of Q II (looking at percentile increase of interactive multimodal learning compared to interactive unimodal learning), the authors state that "results are not quite as high [as the non-interactive comparison], with average gains at 9 percentiles. While not statistically significant, these results are still positive." (emphasis mine)

Common level of signifcances are \(\alpha =.20,~.10,~.05,~.01\)

Notation of a random process that has outcomes

The "universal set" aka "sample space" of all possible outcomes is sometimes denoted by \(U\), \(S\), or \(\Omega\): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_space

Probability theory & measure theory

From what I recall, the notation, \(\Omega\), was mainly used in higher-level grad courses on probability theory. ie, when trying to frame things in probability theory as a special case of measure theory things/ideas/processes. eg, a probability space, \((\cal{F}, \Omega, P)\) where \(\cal{F}\) is a \(\sigma\text{-field}\) aka \(\sigma\text{-algebra}\) and \(P\) is a probability density function on any element of \(\cal{F}\) and \(P(\Omega)=1.\)

Somehow, the definition of a sigma-field captures the notion of what we want out of something that's measurable, but it's unclear to me why so let's see where writing through this takes me.

Working through why a sigma-algebra yields a coherent notion of measureable

A sigma-algebra \(\cal{F}\) on a set \(\Omega\) is defined somewhat close to the definition of a topology \(\tau\) on some space \(X\). They're both collections of sub-collections of the set/space of reference (ie, \(\tau \sub 2^X\) and \(\cal{F} \sub 2^\Omega\)). Also, they're both defined to contain their underlying set/space (ie, \(X \in \tau\) and \(\Omega \in \cal{F}\)).

Additionally, they both contain the empty set but for (maybe) different reasons, definitionally. For a topology, it's simply defined to contain both the whole space and the empty set (ie, \(X \in \tau\) and \(\empty \in \tau\)). In a sigma-algebra's case, it's defined to be closed under complements, so since \(\Omega \in \cal{F}\) the complement must also be in \(\cal{F}\)... but the complement of the universal set \(\Omega\) is the empty set, so \(\empty \in \cal{F}\).

I think this might be where the similarity ends, since a topology need not be closed under complements (but probably has a special property when it is, although I'm not sure what; oh wait, the complement of open is closed in topology, so it'd be clopen! Not sure what this would really entail though 🤷‍♀️). Moreover, a topology is closed under arbitrary unions (which includes uncountable), but a sigma-algebra is closed under countable unions. Hmm... Maybe this restriction to countable unions is what gives a coherent notion of being measurable? I suspect it also has to do with Banach-Tarski paradox. ie, cutting a sphere into 5 pieces and rearranging in a clever way so that you get 2 sphere's that each have the volume of the original sphere; I mean, WTF, if 1 sphere's volume equals the volume of 2 sphere's, then we're definitely not able to measure stuff any more.

And now I'm starting to vaguely recall that this what sigma-fields essentially outlaw/ban from being possible. It's also related to something important in measure theory called a Lebeque measure, although I'm not really sure what that is (something about doing a Riemann integral but picking the partition on the y-axis/codomain instead of on the x-axis/domain, maybe?)

And with that, I think I've got some intuition about how fundamental sigma-algebras are to letting us handle probability and uncertainty.

Back to probability theory

So then events like \(E_1\) and \(E_2\) that are elements of the set of sub-collections, \(\cal{F}\), of the possibility space \(\Omega\). Like, maybe \(\Omega\) is the set of all possible outcomes of rolling 2 dice, but \(E_1\) could be a simple event (ie, just one outcome like rolling a 2) while \(E_2\) could be a compound(?) event (ie, more than one, like rolling an even number). Notably, \(E_1\) & \(E_2\) are NOT elements of the sample space \(\Omega\); they're elements of the powerset of our possibility space (ie, the set of all possible subsets of \(\Omega\) denoted by \(2^\Omega\)). So maybe this explains why the "closed under complements" is needed; if you roll a 2, you should also be able to NOT roll a 2. And the property that a sigma-algebra must "contain the whole space" might be what's needed to give rise to a notion of a complete measure (conjecture about complete measures: everything in the measurable space can be assigned a value where that part of the measurable space does, in fact, represent some constitutive part of the whole).

But what about these "random events"?

Ah, so that's where random variables come into play (and probably why in probability theory they prefer to use \(\Omega\) for the sample space instead of \(X\) like a base space in topology). There's a function, that is, a mapping from outcomes of this "random event" (eg, a role of 2 dice) to a space in which we can associate (ie, assign) a sense of distance (ie, our sigma-algebra). What confuses me is that we see things like "\(P(X=x)\)" which we interpret as "probability that our random variable, \(X\), ends up being some particular outcome \(x\)." But it's also said that \(X\) is a real-valued function, ie, takes some arbitrary elements (eg, events like rolling an even number) and assigns them a real number (ie, some \(x \in \mathbb{R}\)).

Aha! I think I recall the missing link: the notation "\(X=x\)" is really a shorthand for "\(X(\omega)=x\)" where \(\omega \in \cal{F}\). But something that still feels unreconciled is that our probability metric, \(P\), is just taking some real value to another real value... So which one is our sigma-algebra, the inputs of \(P\) or the inputs of \(X\)? 🤔 Hmm... Well, I guess it has the be the set of elements that \(X\) is mapping into \(\mathbb{R}\) since \(X\text{'s}\) input is a small omega \(\omega\) (which is probably an element of big omega \(\Omega\) based on the conventions of small notation being elements of big notation), so \(X\text{'s}\) domain much be the sigma-algrebra?

Let's try to generate a plausible example of this in action... Maybe something with an inequality like "\(X\ge 1\)". Okay, yeah, how about \(X\) is a random variable for the random process of how long it takes a customer to get through a grocery line. So \(X\) is mapping the elements of our sigma-algebra (ie, what customers actually end up experiencing in the real world) into a subset of the reals, namely \([0,\infty)\) because their time in line could be 0 minutes or infinite minutes (geesh, 😬 what a life that would be, huh?). Okay, so then I can ask a question like "What's the probability that \(X\) takes on a value greater than or equal to 1 minute?" which I think translates to "\(P\left(X(\omega)\ge 1\right)\)" which is really attempting to model this whole "random event" of "What's gonna happen to a particular person on average?"

So this makes me wonder... Is this fact that \(X\) can model this "random event" (at all) what people mean when they say something is a stochastic model? That there's a probability distribution it generates which affords us some way of dealing with navigating the uncertainty of the "random event"? If so, then sigma-algebras seem to serve as a kind of gateway and/or foundation into specific cognitive practices (ie, learning to think & reason probabilistically) that affords us a way out of being overwhelmed by our anxiety or fear and can help us reclaim some agency and autonomy in situations with uncertainty.

Vaguely recall these "uniquely determined" some (but not all) functions. Later on, the article says all moments from \(0\) to \(\infty\) do uniquely determine bounded functions. Guess you can't judge a book (or graph) by it's cover; you have to wait moment by moment for it to reveal itself

creating note for key stat

Tom Whipple on Twitter. (n.d.). Twitter. Retrieved 29 October 2021, from https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1442226972491333641

This is a comment on the whole concept really, but the best thing I ever did for myself in terms of gaining a better understanding of data and how to interpret it was to take a research and methods design class, and of course statistics as well. It helped me understand why researchers choose certain ways to represent data, and understand that to the untrained eye, data can be manipulated to seemingly prove almost any point. It is our responsibility to be clear and honest in our presentation of data. Kind of a "with great power comes great responsibility" moment. Because unfortunately, if you throw some statistics around people assume you must know what you are talking about, and often take it at face value without doing their own research, so it is incredibly easy to mislead and misinform the masses in this way.

The Quest for Truth

The quest for Truth is everywhere and not limited to the economic topics linked here. This is just a topic that started a thought process where I had access to a convenient tool (Hypothesis) to bookmark my thoughts and research.

Primary thought is: The Quest for Truth. Subcategories would provide a structured topic for the thought. In this case the subcategory would be: US Economy, Inflation

The TRUTH is a concept comprised of inconsistencies and targets that frequently move.

Targets (data, methods, people, time, semantics, agenda, demographic, motive, means, media, money, status) hold a position in time long enough to fulfill a purpose or agenda. Sometimes they don't consciously change, but history over time shines light and opens cracks in original narrative that leads to new truth's, real or imagined.

Verifying and validating certain Truth is very difficult. Why is That?

Rules of thumb on magnitudes of effect sizes

Defining informal mentorship in the survey data

Middle-income subsample for analysis was 3,158

Middle-income = families making $25k-$100k a year in Wave 1

Defining income groups: under $25k, $25k-$49999, $50k-$74999, $75k-$99999, and $100k+.

Upward mobility (dependent variable); data surrounding household incomes of Wave 1 and Wave 4

Data source

Data source

Figure depicts effects of mentors providing social support and social capital

Social capital (bridging and bonding) can "foster feelings of school connectedness, which has been demonstrated to lead to academic engagement and ultimately, educational attainment"; similar in workplaces, bonding with mentors in settings can create sense of connectedness with setting overall

Social support leads to higher rates of academic competence, strong academic outcomes; has a direct influence on some of the building blocks of mobility