If a 100× pay gap is driven by a 100× researcher quality gap, then simulating a top researcher might speed things up much more than simulating an average researcher. But this isn't the case if much of the pay gap is driven by the superstar dynamic — the gap in researcher quality might actually be much smaller.
大多数人认为AI智能爆炸的速度取决于模拟顶尖研究者与普通研究者能力的巨大差异。但作者认为,如果薪酬差距主要是由'超级明星效应'而非真实能力差异驱动,那么研究者之间的实际能力差距可能小得多,这对AI发展速度的预测有重要影响。