U.a. Schlüsseldaten zur Erosion und Zerstörung der regelbasierten internationalen Ordnung (oder des Anspruchs darauf) in den letzten Jahrzehnten. Kein Hinweis auf die ökologische Dimension.

geopolitics, whether in shape of capital, tech or politics has become key, which he overlooked in 2015/8

This article is an example from USA State Dept Legal Office about what [[Matt Gurney We will never fucking trust you again]] mentions wrt loyalists coming and likely staying for a long time, eroding the institution and its credibility

USians will have hard time coming to terms with this. Vgl Bush years where tourists claimed to be Canadian. The ugly American in the Whitehouse etc. With Bush the Lesser there was a return to normal (bc institutions were kept in place), with Trump that road is cut off.

Whatever happens in the USA in the coming 3 yrs: "We will never trust you again". This has very deep reaching impacts.

8 decades of softpower squandered, rationality gone and institutionalised governance dismantled. In short the US cannot even be assumed to act within its own self-interest

Undo many decisions will be impossible

author calls bs on back-to-normal hopes. Many officials are leaving and get replaced by younger ones who buy into the new US policy and will shape it for decades.

Pre-Trump officials in the US think there's a road back to where the US was before

in response US senator did not disagree

question by Canadian senator to US senator at Halifax security forum. Premise: USA walked away from democracy and allies

strategic issues wrt China. Nexperia is mentioned but not explained (e.g. as to why Dutch gov stepped in), something I find lacking overall. Search for comms by Dutch gov on this?

Mario Draghi on the (absence of) EU clout in current geopolitical climate, and ways to increase it.

for - article - Substack - Michel Bauwens - title - The Geopolitics of Cosmo-Localism (I)

summary - A nice summary of the geopolitical implications of a cosmolocal future and the main obstacles that must be overcome to turn it into a reality

https://web.archive.org/web/20250220082618/https://koreapro.org/2025/02/the-death-of-like-minded-diplomacy-and-what-it-means-for-south-korea/

Korean perspective on the shifting geopolitics wrt US shifting to explicit transactionalism/bullying. n:: Mentions 'like-mindedness' as principle, and Nordic/Netherlands as source of this term. First time I see it mentioned this directly as a guiding principle, though in practice this is reflexive here in NL (e.g. for JTC25 I also first approached DK for their take).

for - geopolitics - Trump threat to make Canada 51st state - Elizabeth May response - 2025, Jan

for - Yanis Varoufakis - talk - in China - Geopolitics and the US dollar - adjacency - geopolitics - China and US - why did the US start a Cold War with China around 2014? - US switched from surplus to deficit country - Henry Kissinger's role - US needs to be hegemonic - to manage the deficit - and keep everyone exporting goods to the US

Summary - (see below)

adjacency - between - Yanis Varoufakis - China US cold war - the importance of the years 2014 - 2015 - Henry Kissinger - surplus economy to deficit economy - techno feudalism - cloud capital - cloudist - adjacency relationship - Yanis Varoufakis gives an insightful talk to Chinese officials about - the reason behind the US cold war with China, - how it is independent of which political party is in power, - eliminates many other reasons put forth - how's this single reason drives so much of geopolitics and US hegemony - why its continuation will destroy any chance of the global collaboration not required to prevent climate change disaster for our entire civilization - a strategy to change direction towards re-establishing healthy relationships between nation states that includes activating the social democrats within the United States - The key observation that explains the cold war with China, - An observation from a Henry Kissinger colleague replying to a solicitation for answers to a question Kissinger posed for his team - Kissinger realized that during his role in the US government, the US would soon switch from a country with a net surplus to ones with a net deficit, and this had existential consequences - No country has ever have a long term deficit and survived - Kissinger was fishing for solutions from his team - One team member suggested tripling the deficit but becoming the main currency for global trade - This is the plan that was adopted - The US went from a surplus country to a deficit around 2014-2015 - It forced the US to be hegemonic and control the entire global currency for trade - China threatens this with a new digital superhighway

for - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - Russia's unsustainable attrition rate

to - economic game analysis of Russia Ukraine War - https://hyp.is/avvydB5QEe-aheM72r6J4Q/docdrop.org/video/A-9kLZ19OAE/

for - key insight - geopolitics - arrest of General Ivan Papov - suppress uprising

key insight - geopolitics - Russia - arrest of general Papov - The arrest sends a signal to all the generals - do not try to overthrow Putin

for - geopolitics - Russian play book for political takeover

geopolitics - Russian playbook for political takeover of ex- Soviet satellite countries - claim that Russian citizens are being threatened - send Putin loyalists into the local government - have fake referendum and rigged elections - install Putin loyalists to take over the country

for - key insight - Putin is trying to create autocratic governments all over the world - geopolitics - Putin's influence in Georgia

for - adjacency - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine war - oil and gas industry destruction leading to economic collapse

adjacency - between - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - Oil & Gas industry - Economic collapse - drone attacks on oil refineries - adjacency relationship - Konstantin' insider news is that the economic collapse is beginning due to the significant damage that the oil & gas refinery infrastructure has been damaged by effective Ukrainian drone attacks and the Western sanctions

for - geopolitics - Russia war economy strategy

geopolitics - Russia's war economy strategy - Putin is moving the country in this direction - following Trotsky to turn the entire economy into a war economy and following Lenin to use brute force to coerce the population to join the cause - However, looking at this basic economic game analysis of the Russia Ukraine war, it does not look feasible -

for - key insight - geopolitics - Russian government is a mafia

key insight - geopolitics - Russian government is a mafia - everyone is corrupt and almost everyone in Putin's government is loyal to Putin and have committed crimes that Putin can use against them

for - adjacency - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War - How Ukraine wins - Russian economic collapse

adjacency - between - geopolitics - Russia - Ukraine War - polycrisis - How Ukraine wins - Russian economic collapse - adjacency statement - Since Putin is psychopathic and has no regards for how many Russian soldiers are sent to their death, he will continue to force Russian men to their death in large numbers - Russian commentator Konstantin Samoilov best summarizes it by saying: - https://hyp.is/go?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocdrop.org%2Fvideo%2FA-9kLZ19OAE%2F&group=world

for - adjacency - colonialism - polycrisis - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine War

adjacency - between - colonialism - Russia - Putin - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine war - adjacency relationship - Putin violated the US rule of keeping bloodshed and abuse in your own country by attacking the Ukraine in the manner that it did - Putin is acting as a colonialist to try to rebuild the borders of the Soviet Union

for - key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - progress trap- US foreign policy that shaped modernity

key insight - why US geopolitics installed dictatorships - This was the US's rationale to justify the geopolitical mess it created this century: - If you allow democracy in the age of Communism - people might vote for communism, then - kill all the rich people, then - take their stuff, then - redistribute it - You can get a majority support for that in an impoverished country and that was perceived as a threat - So the United States was suppressing Democratic movements around the world - because if an authoritarian if a communist can win an election fairly one time, - that's the end of free and fair elections - So for decades, the US foreign policy agenda was to install dictators to suppress the threat that democracy could produce communism. - But after "communism was defeated" - all these installed dictators around the world that are the direct result of the pathological US foreign policy posed a new, unexpected quagmire - The decades of US foreign policy had created an enormous progress trap that we are all living through now - The US now had to normalize relations with the new world of dictators it had helped created out of its own fears<br /> - A new US foreign policy rule emerged to deal with this fiasco - Stay in your own country - If you want to kill, imprison, brutalize or subjegate your own people, it is fine with the US government as long as it is done within your own state borders - As long as a nation state abuses their own people, the US will continue to: - buy your oil - trade with you - show up at the UN - even have an occasional State event for you - However, Russia broke that rule

for - geopolitics - Russia Ukraine war - polycrisis - russia war - metacrisis - russia war - Jake Broe - Russia Ukraine war analysis

summary - An intelligent analysis of the complexity of the Russia- Ukraine war. - Key points: - Russia's successful misinformation campaign has - created the MAGA disinformed political party and has - delayed the US Aid package - enabled the rapid rise of extreme right wing politics

The article calls 'a 5g moment' the moment of realisation that dependencies in a tech may erode strategic position, by letting critical infrastructure to be controlled by tech firms that can be influenced by other governments. In the case of 5g it's Huawei and Chinese gov, in the case of cloud it's GAM and US gov. This is not a new notion, it is why the EU digital and data legal framework was created the past 4 yrs, so why this paper now?

DMA level cloud services in 3rd countries provide reliable technology but do not bring trust, security and diversification at a level needed for cloud sovereignty

Der ungarische Präsident Orbán und der serbische Präsident Vučić arbeiten gemeinsam mit dem bosnischen Serbenführer Dodić aktiv daran, die Abhängigkeit ihrer Gebiete und weiterer Teile Südosteuropas von russischen Gaslieferungen zu vergrößern. Mit dieser aktiven Anti-EU-Politik festigen sie ihre autoritären Regime. Analyse von Adelheid Wölffl im Standard.

https://www.derstandard.de/story/3000000184546/geld-gas-und-orden-ungarn-vereint-die-kreml-freunde-in-suedosteuropa

Das Verschwinden des arktischen meereises hat – in Verbindung mit den Spannungen in anderen Regionen – gravierende geopolitische Konsequenzen. Russland ist dabei, die Arktis massiv zu militarisieren. Dabei kooperiert ist mit China. Es will andererseits von den Schiffsrouten durch das eisfreie Nordpolarmeer profitieren. Wissenschaftliche Kooperation in der Arktis findet seit der Invasion der ganzen Ukraine im Februar 2022 nicht mehr statt. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/13/arctic-russia-nato-putin-climate

https://web.archive.org/web/20230606100509/https://taz.de/Portugal-genehmigt-riesigen-Tagebau/!5935913/

via hypothes.is/users/heinzWittenbrink

Where in Europe are sizable lithium deposits. Serbia has a large resource. Portugal named here 'biggest in Europe' but is that EU or also non-EU Europe? Last Oct a large deposit was mentioned in southern Germany https://duitslandinstituut.nl/artikel/51669/mogelijk-grootste-europese-lithiumvoorraad-in-duitsland also 'the largest in Europe'. The EC has marked lithium and other materials as strategic resources in 2020 https://www.europa-nu.nl/id/vlbrdsozwzzy/nieuws/brussel_zet_in_op_schaarse_grondstoffen

https://web.archive.org/web/20230515123225/https://koneksa-mondo.nl/2023/05/14/waar-staan-we-met-wet-en-regelgeving-op-ai-in-europa-china-en-de-vs/

Marco loopt ook de VS en Chinese wetgeving na. Zie ook links in de comments mbt China.

Sorld is dangerously dependent on an aggressor nation’s supply of fertilizer.

Dependency on fossil fuel of authoritarian regimes has major political consequences.

Starosielski (2021) - The Politics of Cable Supply from the British Empire to Huawei Marine - https://is.gd/8LgG2R - urn:x-pdf:dce28e61ffb8c3b2ecc2b99241b1d22a

the Guardian. “A Victim of Its Own Success: How Taiwan Failed to Plan for a Major Covid Outbreak,” June 7, 2021. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/07/a-victim-of-its-own-success-how-taiwan-failed-to-plan-for-a-major-covid-outbreak.

Protect precious scientific collaboration from geopolitics. (2021). Nature, 593(7860), 477–477. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01386-0

Time. ‘The Great Reset: How to Build a Better World Post-COVID-19’. Accessed 19 February 2021. https://time.com/collection/great-reset/.

Fascinating geopolitical suggestion here: Trans-Atlantic GDPR-like rules as the NATO of data privacy to effectively allow "the West" to compete against the People's Republic of China in the development of artificial intelligence.

If you work in international development? If you are interested in learning more about the history and evolution of the thinking driving international cooperation. This is a site for you.

The site offers the pre-print version of an IDRC publication entitled International Development: Ideas, Experience, and Prospects, edited by Bruce Currie-Alder, Ravi Kanbur, David M. Malone, and Rohinton Medhora.

This is an interesting book brings together the voices of over ninety authors, which include international development practitioners, experts and policy makers.

The site contains a study guide comprised by eight sections of the book, each with a number of chapters. Ideal to use for beginner or advanced courses in universities and as reference for day to day work in the field.