That means four years of current emissions. If you go by Pierce Pierce Forc's recent paper, it's only about two and a half years of current emissions. If you look at the reduction rate here, these are global reduction rates. We'd have to bring emissions down at around about 20% every single year.
for - stats - climate crisis - decarbonization - 2025 - 2.5 to 4 years of carbon budget remaining for 1.5 Deg C - 20% per annum decarbonization rate
We're seeing um um a very strong unwillingness to get rid of the four5 trillion US in subsidies to fossil fuels and introducing a price on carbon
for - climate crisis - major barrier - unwillingness to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies - Johan Rockstrom
This paper’s authors argue that using GWP to assess the relative planetary warming caused by various different sectors is therefore a deeply flawed metric. They propose that a better measure for policymakers to adopt would be something called Effective Radiative Forcing, or ERF.
for - youtube - Just have a think - new paper - new metric for measuring emissions - ERF - to - paper - Increased transparency in accounting conventions could benefit climate policy - https://hyp.is/CUcbhF2TEfCn1ieAeq73JA/iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb7f2 - climate crisis - carbon emissions - agriculture has the highest of all - AgroSphere Technologies - cite this paper
for - from - youtube - Just have a think - A controversial new paper challenges established emissions accounting criteria - https://hyp.is/9AQ6VF2SEfCsW8_68Y6AUA/www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9f16OTL1Lg - climate crisis - ERF - agriculture 60% - fossil fuels 18% - agriculture is the biggest contributor to carbon emissions summary - This paper uses Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) as a metric to measure global carbon emissions instead of the traditional Global Warming Potential (GWP) - It points out the problematic nature of GWP and how ERF provides a more accurate picture - Using ERF, the most surprising result of this study is that agriculture is the leading sector causing global warming - Measured from a baseline of emissions since 1750, - agriculture contributes 60% while - fossil fuels contributes 18% - Projects like Project Drawdown already prioritize agriculture, this gives even more validation and priority on transforming the agricultural sector - This also increases importance on efforts in: - regenerative farming - bioreginalism - permaculture - agroforestry - rewilding
Interview | Klimawandel - "Alle wollen vom Klimaschutz der anderen profitieren" Di 22.07.25 | 06:11 Uhr
Frank Adloff [Interviewee] / Sabine Priess: "Alle wollen vom Klimaschutz der anderen profitieren". in: rbb|24 22.07.25 06:11 URL: https://www.rbb24.de/panorama/beitrag/2025/07/interview-frank-adloff-soziologe-klimawandel-pardoxes-verhalten.html
Sector contributions are incomplete due to conventional partial accounting
for - climate crisis - GHG - incomplete accounting
agriculture, the most extensive land user, to be the leading emissions sector and to have caused 60% (32%–87%) of ERF change since 1750.
for - comparison - climate crisis - emissions using ERF - agriculture - 60% of ERF - fossil fuels - 18% of ERF
for - paper - climate crisis - rebound effect - paper - title - Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications - from - post - LinkedIn - rebound effect - https://hyp.is/yz4m_ldBEfC18Bfg0RPf2w/www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7346027213776953344/
for - post - LinkedIn - paper - climate crisis - rebound effect - wipes out efficiency gains - to - paper - rebound effects https://hyp.is/Er5r7FdCEfCa45MudqrqPw/www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121000769
for - post - LinkedIn - climate crisis - rebound effect
You can’t cut emissions without cutting inequality. New science proves it.
for - climate crisis - research study - luxury emissions must fall
Am 14.05.2025 kündigte die NGO Milieudefensie eine neue Klimaklage gegen Shell an, um die Inbetriebnahme von 700 geplanten Öl- und Gasfeldern zu verhindern. Die Emissionen dieser Felder würden 5,2 Milliarden Tonnen CO₂ betragen, etwa 36 Mal so viel wie die der Niederlande. Eine Studie zeigt, dass Shells Emissionen weiterhin steigen. Seit 2021 hat Shell Investitionen in 32 neue Öl- und Gasfelder beschlossen. Ein Gerichtsurteil von 2021 verlangte von Shell eine Reduzierung der Emissionen um 45 % bis 2030, doch ein Berufungsurteil von 2024 hob diese konkrete Vorgabe auf. Shell hat vier Wochen Zeit, auf die neue Klage zu reagieren. [Zusammenfassung mit Mistral generiert] https://taz.de/Neue-Klimaklage-in-den-Niederlanden/!6087879/
for - youtube - The New Denialism - Kevin Anderson 2025 - climate crisis 2025
adjacency between - Kevin Anderson - true scale of required decarbonization - climate justice - colonialism justice - polycrisis - intersection of climate and colonialism justice - social constructs - Douglas Rushkoff on Weirdness - understanding Deep social construction - Oliver Sacks - Deep Humanity - BEing Journeys - 2 level tree structure - MAGA shallow socially constructed story - stops at birth of the US but before colonialism - omit the story of the genocide and enslavement of indigenous genocide on two continents - in the Americas and Africa - myth of "money buys happiness" - new story - true happiness does not depend on any material
adjacency relationship
Summary - Kevin explains the true scale of decarbonization required - It is basically the same argument he has been making for decades but updated for 2025
for - climate crisis - impacts of Trump tariffs - carbon emission impacts of Trump tariffs
comment - I'm surprised that not one analyst has commented on the potential slowdown of a possible recession due to lower consumer activity due to the tariffs - Remember the significant lowering of carbon emissions during COVID? - Of course it wouldn't be durable and carbon emissions could rise after Trump and tariffs may no longer be in place but now is a good time to strategize how to decarbonize strategically
for - climate and biodiversity crisis - rewilding and afforestation of abandoned farmland - paper - title - rewilding abandoned farmland has greater sustainabilitty benefits than afforestation
for - carbon inequality - report - Oxfam - carbon inequality kills - 2024 - from - London School of Economics blog - Billionaire plutocrats are driving the climate crisis - https://hyp.is/QOvgOgP1EfCx4Lto0mV-kQ/blogs.lse.ac.uk/inequalities/2024/11/19/billionaire-pollutocrats-are-driving-the-climate-crisis/
for - climate crisis - bridging inner and outer transformation - paper - BeChange: Sustainability education and leadership development : Assessing the links between inner development and outer change for transformation - from - Christine Walsmer - homepage - paper link - BeChange: Sustainability education and leadership development : Assessing the links between inner development and outer change for transformation - https://hyp.is/-YsLUAPjEfCKqv-67o8QzA/www.lucsus.lu.se/christine-wamsler
for - climate crisis - bridging inner and outer transformation - from - Christine Wamsler - homepage - Lund University - paper link - At the intersection of mind and climate change: Integrating inner dimesions of climate change into policymaking and practice - https://hyp.is/AGENggPiEfCc4N-mPYLDqg/www.lucsus.lu.se/christine-wamsler
None of these are within the control of the Kenyan government—which is not to say that poor governance and corruption has not contributed to the crisis.
for - Kenya - polycrisis - austerity - climate crisis plus poor governance
Die Trump-Administration will 65% der 15.000 Angestellten der Umweltbehörde EPA entlassen. Die Zahl geht auf den von Trump ernannten neuen Chef der Behörde Lee Zeldin zurück.
for - biodiversity and climate crisis
for - climate crisis - salps - ocean climate mitigation
As fervent believers in Longterminism, the Silicon Valley elites are not interested in the current multiple crises of our societies. On the contrary, through their social media platforms, Zuckerberg and Musk even instigate further polarization. Climate change, inequality, erosion of democracy – who cares? What counts is the far away future, not the present. Their greatest fear is not the collapse of our climate or the mass extinction of animals – they are haunted by the nightmare of AI taking over control. This would spoil their homo deus party. AI in control doesn’t need humans anymore.
for - biggest worry of silicon valley longterminists - AI takeover, not climate crisis - SOURCE - article - Guido Palazzo
in the deserts the Southern California coastal region reaches some of its highest annual temperatures in Autumn rather than summer when these winds are going on frigid dry Arctic air from Canada tends to create the most intense Santa Ana winds
for - globally interconnected climate system - frigid dry Arctic air from Canada - Santa Ana winds - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
relative humidity decreases as the temperature increases and uh it often Falls below 10%
for - stats - Santa Ana winds dries to less than 10% relative humidity - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
the air warms adiabatically which means that it depends on the lapse rate as you as you go to lower and lower altitudes um the temperature increases so the lapse rate is actually the drop of temperature as you get further from the surface of the Earth in dry air the adiabatic lapse rate is n about 10° CS per kilometer or about a degree celsius per uh 100 MERS okay so the as the air is coming down it's warming about 1° cels for each 100 meters of desent
for - physics - adiabatic warming - lapse rate - Santa Ana winds - venturi effect through canyons increases wind speed - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10 - stats - Santa Ana winds warms 1 Deg C every 100 meter of descent due to adiabatic warming lapse rate - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
these winds um get compressed they increase in speed uh to often to near gale force winds or above and du to this Venturi effect where the winds get compressed into a smaller area so be for constant flow rate the velocity has to be much higher in this region than in this region just because there's less space for the air to be so it goes into these canyons and gets compressed and gets accelerated to very high speeds
for - physics - Santa Ana winds - venturi effect through canyons increases wind speed - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
a five-fold increase in summer burned area during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995
for - stats - 2025 Los Angeles fires - 5x increase in summer burned area - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
lots of homes right along the ocean completely torched so the question is why didn't they have hoses that they could put in the ocean and pump seawat onto the roofs and structures to keep the Cinders from uh setting the place light and burning It To The Ground just a thought
for - climate crisis - forest fires - home protection - outside rooftop sprinkler systems - SOURCE - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
// - COMMENT - Paul brings up a very good point. There is an existing low cost innovation that was pioneered and successfully deployed in Canada that could have prevented the destruction of many of the buildings that were destroyed, namely - rooftop sprinkler systems - There are many rooftop sprinker systems available now. They should actually be mandated into law to have one in high risk fire areas. - https://search.brave.com/search?q=canada+forest+fire+prevention+rooftop+sprinkler+system&source=desktop&summary=1&conversation=375a9992d731deff34143a
for - Youtube - climate crisis - 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Catastrophic Climate Driven Conflagaration in Los Angeles - Paul Beckwith - 2025, Jan 10
// - comment - Paul provides a climate analysis of the overarching climate conditions that enabled the 2025 Los Angeles fires - The Santa Ana winds are a natural occurrence in this area but the climate change induced abnormalities have brought about alternating cycles of heavy rain and drought conditions - The preceding heavy rain period resulted in enormous growth of vegetation - The last two months of extreme drought conditions dried up all this additional growth creating enormous amounts of fuel for a fire - It was interesting to learn that cold air from the arctic plays a critical role in the Santa Ana winds, but Paul did not provide an explanation - This is one example of how the earth system is so interconnected
//
for - report - climate crisis - food system transformation - Public climate finance for food systems transformation - Global Alliance for the Future of Food - 2024, Nov - from - post - LinkedIn - Jonathan Foley - This is very, very important - stats - 2.5% climate funding for food system that contributes 30% of global climate emissions - 2025, Jan 3 - https://hyp.is/zKE7vsqkEe-RFB8co7Pdqw/www.linkedin.com/posts/jonathan-foley-182808b9_foodsystemeconomicscommission-cop29-climatefinance-activity-7281009061003706369-P1b0/ - TPC network - motivation
While the food system contributes about 22-34% of the world’s greenhouse gases — it only gets about 2.5-3% of the climate funding.
for - stats - climate crisis - funding - food system - contributes 30% of global emissions - receives 2.5% climate funding - only 1.5% of the 2.5% goes to sustainable food systems - source - Public climate finance for food systems transformation - Global Alliance for the Future of Food - 2024, Nov - reposted on LinkedIn by Jonathan Foley - to - Public climate finance for food systems transformation - Global Alliance for the Future of Food - 2024, Nov - https://hyp.is/E3p2hsqlEe-tG0ezHCPriw/futureoffood.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ga_climatefinancereport_2024.pdf - TPC network - motivation
there is a major difference between low-lying clouds and high altitude clouds
for - climate crisis - difference between - low and high cloud cover - low has higher albedo and high has lower albedo - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec
they found another Trend that was appearing across multiple data sets the decline and drop in the formation and prevalence of low altitude cloud cover especially over the world's oceans
for - climate crisis - low cloud cover is disappearing above the oceans - potentially decreasing albedo - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec
there still seems to be a little bit of Gap in data that doesn't account for 0.2 de celsus warming that is present extra scientists have not been able to comfortably explain over the past in fact several years why there is this little bit of extra global warming it is a major major Gap
for - stats - climate crisis - global mean temperature gap in models vs measurement of - 0.2 Deg C - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec
for - climate crisis - unusually low albedo in the last few years - potentially due to growing extinction of low clouds - from The Print - YouTube - Low clouds disappearing over earth, rapidly acceleration heating - 2024, Dec
I told them stories about being queer. I told them about my grief about the climate crisis. And to my surprise, many of them actually shared that. And what happened is that who I personally saw as a "Trump voter" began to change
for - quote - to my surprise, Trump supporters I talked to also cared about the climate crisis - from TED Talk - Can curiosity heal division? - Scott Shigeoka - 2024 Dec
for - climate crisis - impact of Trump tariff strategy - increasing economic and carbon inequality and precarity for the masses - from - Youtube - Trump wants to crash to benefit the ultra wealthy - Trump's planning to crash the global economy - Richard J Murphy - 2024, Dec
// - SUMMARY - Richard J Murphy provides us with a big picture of Trump's objective in his calculated Tariff strategy - It's not that it makes no sense and is a strategy of a madman - On the contrary, he has a very calculated and maniacal strategy that will result in significantly increasing the wealth of the elites - By creating high tariffs, he will bring about a global economic crash - Like the 2008 and 2020 crash, central banks will print trillions of dollars of money and handout bailouts - It is the elites who will receive these bailouts and inflate the value of their assets - This will - substantially increase the wealth of the rich - substantially increase the precarity of the vast majority of people - increase global inequality - financial inequality and - carbon inequality - This increased precarity is bad news for the climate crisis as a precarious population have less flexibility in reducing their carbon footprint and are more dependent than ever on whatever remain job and resources they still have - Given we have this knowledge of the elite's hidden strategy, can we the people intervene in any way? - We need to have an understanding of how elites see the world - The entire worldview of externalizing investment as a game of accumulation must be understood deeply - in order to find leverage points for rapid system change
//
Reinforced planetary care: localism on its own cannot resist globalized pressure, nor solve planetary and global thermo-dynamic issues.
for - adjacency- localism alone cannot solve planetary scale issues ( like climate crisis) - cross scale translated planetary boundaries / earth system boundaries - from Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20 quote - constructing
mutualizing forms of governance and ownership, can also have extraordinary effects on the amount of needed energy and materials. For example, in the context of shared transport, one shared car can replace 9 to 13 private cars, without any loss of mobility.
for - stats - climate crisis - example - positive impacts of mutualisation / sharing - car sharing - 1 Shared car can replace 9 to 13 cars without loss of mobility - from Substack article - The Cosmo-Local Plan for our Next Civilization - Michel Bauwens - 2024, Dec 20
in Vermont, Native Americans lived here—well, like everywhere in North America—they lived here in Vermont for over ten thousand years. The ecosystem was basically intact, and that’s because they had that ethical system built into their fundamental cultural assumptions—the assumptions that guided their lives. They didn’t think about them. They didn’t question them. They were simply the assumptions, the unthought assumptions.
for - philosophy matters! - biodiversity crisis - 10,000 years of preservation vs 100 years of clearcut - David Hinton - comparison - polycrisis - climate crisis - two unthought assumptions - philosophical differences - Indigenous people of Vermont vs European settlers - from - Emergence Magazine - interview - An Ethics of Wild Mind - David Hinton
comparison - polycrisis - climate crisis - biodiversity crisis - Indigneous people of Vermont - vs European settlers - unthought assumptions - unthought assumptions of Indigenous people took care of forests for 10,000 years - unthought assumptions of European settlers clear cut all the forests in 100 years - These are philosophical differences - PHILOSOPHY MATTERS!
for - adjacency - climate crisis - raw milk - Boevar food supplement for cows to lower methane emissions of farting cows - misinformation - far right conspiracy theories - deeper issue - blindspot revealed by anxiety - Deep Humanity - progress traps
for - climate crisis - Medium article - climate communication - how climate change is framed to disempower you - Joe Brewer - 2024, Dec 4 - from - post - LinkedIn - climate crisis - climate communication - climate change discourse has been framed to disempower us - changing the story - so that grassroots, bottom-up initiatives can restore health to ecosystems - Joe Brewer, 2024, Dec 4 - from - Resilience article - A 'Transcender Manifesto" for a world beyond capitalism. A seed.
summary - A good article that offers an explanation of how language has potentially led the public to rely on top down actors to provide solutions to the climate crisis - Joe Brewer draws on his background as a frame analyst to analyse the role language and cognitive linguistics has played in framing the discourse on the climate crisis - He claims that this has led the public to look to elite top down actors to provide the solutions - This had led to a disempowerment of the public in actively participating in contributing too solutions - Indeed it could be why we have a sleeping giant - Reframing the story could have the opposite effect of inspiring people's to wake up and take action to regenerate nature within and surrounding the communities where people live.
from - post - LinkedIn - climate crisis - climate communication - climate change discourse has been framed to disempower us - changing the story - so that grassroots, bottom-up initiatives can restore health to ecosystems - Joe Brewer, 2024, Dec 4 - https://hyp.is/yvHstLfVEe-cyRN4sq09Ow/www.linkedin.com/posts/joe-brewer-4957925_earlier-this-week-i-lived-into-an-important-activity-7270035170328494080-E7Cq/ - from - Resilience article - A 'Transcender Manifesto" for a world beyond capitalism. A seed. - https://hyp.is/0NOdtLiREe--pwPfB1SmdA/www.resilience.org/stories/2024-04-18/a-transcender-manifesto-for-a-world-beyond-capitalism-a-seed/
we need to reframe away from climate change and reframe toward ecological crisis or ecological collapse, focus on ecosystems. We need to focus our energy on grassroots organizing and local efforts to restore the health of ecosystems, which does change economics, it does change politics, does change all those things
for -❓- not EITHER / OR but AND - climate crisis - community engagement strategy - futures - backcasting from 2030
❓- not EITHER / OR but AND - not - either top down climate action OR - bottom up climate action, - but both - top down climate action AND - bottom up climate action
A predicament is a situation where, as you try to solve problems, you lack a holistic understanding because you’ve been reductionistic and ignored parts of the interdependencies and you end up creating other problems. The attempt to create a solution creates other problems because of the interdependencies.
for - adjacency - systemic intedependent web - predicament - progress trap - Joe Brewer - progress trap - climate crisis solutions
which leads to another framing insight, which is that the framing of climate change is a problem with a solution instead of framing it as a systemic interdependent web or what’s called a predicament.
for - climate crisis - climate communications - 3rd framing element - oversimplification of complexity to reductionist linear thinking - " the polluters are the problem, let's find a solution" - Joe Brewer
why is it that we’re not focusing on those movements as the source of our strength and our organizing? It’s because we have a discourse framed around elite policy institutions that make them the primary actors and the coordination of mostly market mechanisms
for - climate crisis - climate communications - large social movements fizzle out - first framing element - elite policy institutions and businesses are seen as the primary actors - Joe Brewer
Almost all of the climate discourse is framed in terms of economic transactions with carbon markets and carbon credits and carbon offsets and the market dynamics associated with them or with technology solutions that corporations can implement.
for - climate crisis - climate communications - 2nd framing element - majority of discourse framed around economics of carbon markets - or green growth technological solutions from corporation's - Joe Brewer
there’s an idea that dealing with climate change is an issue for our institutions. Whereas you can see by clear evidence that our institutions have a track record of completely failing to address climate change at all levels throughout the entire history of the climate discourse.
for - quote - framing element - media frames climate crisis as issue for the elites to solve - but it has been a complete failure - Joe Brewer
Otto et al. (2019) point out that instead of focusing on the poorest, efforts aimed at reducing carbon emissions should target people at the top of the social scale, i.e., the wealthiest.
for - climate crisis - leverage point - target the wealthiest - Ott et al. 2019
What I did this week was sit down and record a video explaining how the climate change discourse has been framed to disempower us -- and what we can do about it by focusing on grassroots organizing to restore health to our local ecosystems
for - post - LinkedIn - climate crisis - climate communication - climate change discourse has been framed to disempower us - changing the story - so that grassroots, bottom-up initiatives can restore health to ecosystems - Joe Brewer, 2024, Dec 4 - to - Medium article - How Climate Change is framed to Disempower you - Joe Brewer - 2024, Dec 4
to - Medium article - How Climate Change is framed to Disempower you - Joe Brewer - 2024, Dec 4 - https://hyp.is/XoQoRLfVEe-ZMIMjZheLLA/medium.com/@joe_brewer/how-climate-change-is-framed-to-disempower-you-01d871413487
for - definition - Doom loop - definition - derailment risk
Summary - An informative article that shows how climate crisis is invisibly contributing to increasing precarity in indirect ways that are not noticed by those impacted by it. - This creates a positive feedback loop of diverting resources to deal with - the symptoms instead of - the root cause.
he next thing will be overshoot so we then say 1.5 and then you know keep our fingers crossed there'll be an overshoot of 0.2 or3 or half a degree or whatever it might be and then the next bit after that will be due engineering so we'll embed the SRM in and so that that is the that's the D that's the direction that we are going
for - climate crisis - ongoing delay game - Kevin Anderson - Dec 2024
what they're saying is we have to do everything we can on mitigation that doesn't change business as usual doesn't mean that people like me can carry on living like I am today in my large house big car flying around the world consuming lots of goods as long as you don't question that um we can we can try mitigation but we're going to therefore we're going to need geoengineering so we lock it in not just in by by evoking it in our language but by the Norms of how we the people evoking it are behaving the experts are behaving in a way that climate change is no not important there's no credibility lended to lent to our arguments because it doesn't look like we think it's serious
for - climate crisis - hypocrisy of the experts - greenwashing of the elites - Kevin Anderson
I don't expect the policy makers or let's say the journalist the policy makers in Civil Society to really be aware of the challenges we Face unless the expert Community we are paid to do this this is our job unless the expert Community describes things more more in line with what our analysis and our conclusions are but we don't and the re the way we were able to hold that cognitive dissonance is because we can now in our own expertise we've now relied on the GE engineering
for - climate crisis - expert opinions are helping to kick the can down the road - Kevin Anderson
in my view it's absolutely clear that even talking about this now I'm not saying we shouldn't talk about it and this is a bit dilemma but even talking about it this will already be feeding into Delayed Action elsewhere in the same way that negative emission Technologies sucking CO2 out the air has actually undermined the need for Action that has undermined the scale of the challenge that the climate scientists the academics the experts have said is now necessary
for - climate crisis - plan B - always has tendency to undermine Plan A and cause delayed action - ie. Negative Emissions Technologies - Kevin Anderson
at the moment you know where we're heading looks dire there's there's there's little to be optimistic about
for - Kevin Anderson - Dec 2024 feeling about the climate crisis
Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall.
for - question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x - what is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation?
question - climate crisis - climate models underestimate warming in some areas up to 4x<br /> - What is the REAL carbon budget if adjusted to the real situation? - If we have even less than 5 years remaining in our carbon budget, then how many years do we actually have to stay within 1.5 Deg C?
for - climate crisis - paper - models are underestimating by up to 4x - to - paper - Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations Kornhuber et al, 2024 - https://hyp.is/9cS36LMtEe-2oL8C4AgQOQ/www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411258121
If we are underestimating, then does that mean our carbon budget figures are too high and we don't have 5 years of carbon budget remaining at the BAU rate, but significantly less?
for - climate crisis - models are underestimating as much as 4x - question - does our current remaining carbon budget of 5 years BAU need to be reduced?
The good news comes from Joe Kelly, who investigated the large “ultrafast” response ofEarth’s energy imbalance (EEI) to a 2×CO2 forcing in the GISS (2020) GCM. Specifically,we reported in Pipeline that the initial 4 W/m2 imbalance dropped by about 30% (to 2.7W/m2) in year 1 after the forcing was imposed.
for - more research on - Joe Kelly - climate crisis - cloud behavior - Jim Hansen
The fossil fuelindustry is a significant contributor to the Big Green organizations, and many of theseorganizations are financially invested in renewables and fossil fuels, so they do not want tosee nuclear power as a competitor.
for - climate crisis - large green organizations in bed with fossil fuel companies - to squeeze out nuclear - question - Can Jim Hansen name names? - Jim Hansen
annual reports of Lovins’ RockyMountain Institute include Shell and BP among corporate donors providing minimum annualsupport of $500,000 each
Lovins’ later book, Reinventing Fire,48 has a fawning Foreword writtenby the President of Shell Oil Company, which is not surprising since Lovins had adjusted hisgraphs so that fossil fuel phaseout was moved to 2050
for - climate crisis - greenwashing - Amory Lovins - Rocky Mountain Institute - book - Reinventing Fire - forward by Shell Oil president - Jim Hansen
The potential political power of young people has been demonstrated
for - climate crisis - leverage point - the youth - voting examples - Jim Hansen
By thenscientists need to have improved their communication with the public, especially with youngpeople
for - climate crisis - leverage point - the youth - Jim Hansen
GCM-dominated approach allows censorship of alternative perspectives,when the models have a common, or at least widespread, problem: lack of realistic sensitivityto injection of freshwater into the upper layers of the ocean.
for - climate crisis - Global Climate Models (GCM) limitation - do not allow alternative perspectives - unrealistic sensitivity to injection of fresh water into upper layers of the ocean - Jim Hansen
We concluded in our IceMelt paper,14 based on observed rates of ice shelf melting, that the world is nearing shutdownof the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation (AMOC) and shutdown of deepwaterformation near Antarctica (which we term SMOC for its analogy to the Northern Hemisphereprocess), if the rate of ice melt continues to grow.
for - question - climate crisis - AMOC - does Jim Hansen consider shutdown of AMOC irreversible?
oncewe reduce the climate forcing enough that Earth’s energy imbalance becomes slightlynegative, feedbacks will work in the opposite sense, helping us move global temperature andclimate patterns back toward their condition before human alterations of the planet began
for - climate crisis - planetary tipping points - irreversible? - Hansen disagrees - part 2 - climate crisis - comparison - planetary tipping points - Hansen vs Rockstrom
climate crisis - comparison - planetary tipping points - Hansen vs Rockstrom - Hansen makes a valid point. What Rockstrom might consider irreversible, although he doesn't explicitly say, but implies, Hansen speaks instead in more precise terms - The perspectives may be dependent on the knowledge that informs each scientist - Hansen's research into the unknown area of climate change, aeresols and cloud cover, is not considered in conventional knowledge that IPCC bases its conclusions on since it is unknown - Hansen's research uncovers that aeresols play a very large role, to such an extent that humans may be able to mitigate exceeding dangerous temperature thresholds pragmatically through aeresol interventions that impact cloud behavior -
The “tipping point” concept, implying an unstable climate response, is misused and overused,thus encouraging a fatalistic public response or climate change denial.41
for - climate crisis - planetary tipping points - irreversible? - Hansen disagrees - part 1
for - climate crisis - article - Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium - Jim Hansen et al., 2024, Mar 29
for - article - The Conversation climate crisis - mobilize older people - Jones, Aled & Hiller, Bradley, 2021
our universities aren't aren't doing that you know none of our institutions are doing that the conference merry go around of climate negotiations and and academics flying around the world that's not doing it know none of us are doing this it's a scam
for - climate crisis - hypocrisy - example - colonialism - academics flying around the world to conferences - Kevin Anderson
why do our journalists feel they' got to fly to other parts of the world with the camera crew to film some disaster that's elsewhere that's occurred elsewhere why can't those people be training to use the cameras and Report you we we've embedded this sort of colonial view of the world and this Elite view of the world and we like to think of ourselves as good people in this and there's something deeply problematic in all of this and we have to start to unpick this if we're going to be serious about climate change
for - climate crisis - hypocrisy - example - colonialism - journalists in Global North fly to Global South with full film crew - alternative - hire journalists in Global South to do the film work - Kevin Anderson
why is it when colleagues do field work they feel they have to fly backwards and forwards to do their field work often say in the southern hemisphere
for - climate crisis - hypocrisy - example - colonialism - scientists in Global North fly to Global South - alternative - hire scientists in Global South to do the field work - Kevin Anderson
the majority of working group three which has been dominated by the integrated assessment model these big models that basically economic models with a bit of technology or a bit of mythical technology and a bit of um social sciences bolted on the side and and a small climate model but basically just economic models the business as usual models these models have dominated what we have to do about climate change
for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - integrated assessment models - are basically economic models - with a bit of mythical technology - a bit of social science - Kevin Anderson
I've for a long time said I don't think working group three should be part of the ipcc it's just inate reducing emissions is innately political
for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - integrated assessment models - is just about reducing emissions - inherently political - Kevin Anderson
working group three is just Exxon in Disguise um you know there are good people in working group three but working group three and integrated assessment models good people working some of the people are good people there working in deeply subjective boundaries that have been set up by we mustn't Rock the political boat
for - climate crisis - IPCC - warning - working group 3 - Integrated Assessment Models - Some good people here but - It's just Exxon in disguise - Kevin Anderson
we hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it so we we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use an 11-year running average so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it but it but it may well be that we're already in that long um like that that long run average we might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
for - quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson
quote - climate crisis - In 2024, temperatures soared above 1.5 Deg C. Have we breached the threshold? Yes and No - Kevin Anderson - (see below) - We hit it for one year and that doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - We we typically want to see a longer running average so we typically use n 11-year running average - so a single year doesn't tell us we've hit it or we haven't hit it - But it may well be that we're already in that long run average - We might be already one of those years that means we're not going to drop below 1.5
for - climate crisis - Youtube - climate Doomsday 6 years from now - Jerry Kroth - to - climate clock - adjacency - Tipping Point Festival - Indyweb / SRG complexity mapping tool - Integration of many fragmented bottom-up initiatives - The Great Weaving - Cosmolocal organization - Michel Bauwens - Peer-to-Peer Foundation - A third option - Islands of Coherency - Otto Scharmer Presencing Institute - U-labs - Love-based (sacred-based) mini-assemblies interventions to address growing fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - Ending the US / China Cold War - Yanis Varoufakis
YouTube details - title: climate Doomsday 6 years from now - author: Jerry Kroth, pyschologist
summary - Psychologist Jerry Kroth makes a claim that the 1.5 Deg C and 2.0 Deg C thresholds will be reached sooner than expected - due to acceleration of climate change impacts. - He backs up his argument with papers and recent talks of climate thought leaders using their youtube presentations. - This presentation succinctly summarized a lot of the climate news I've been following recently. - It reminded me of the urgency of climate change, my work trying to find a way to integrate the work of the Climate Clock project into other projects. - This work was still incomplete but now I have incentive to complete it.
adjacency - between - Tipping Point Festival - Indyweb / SRG complexity mapping tool - Integration of many fragmented bottom-up initiatives - The Great Weaving - Cosmolocal organization - Michel Bauwens - Peer-to-Peer Foundation - Islands of Coherency - Otto Scharmer - Presencing Institute - U-labs - Love-based (sacred-based) mini-assemblies interventions to address growing fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - Ending the US / China Cold War - Yanis Varoufakis - and many others - adjacency relationship - I have been holding many fragmented projects in my mind and they are all orbiting around the Tipping Point Festival for the past decade. - When Indyweb Alpha is done, - especially with the new Wikinizer update - We can collectively weave all these ideas together into one coherent whole using Stop Reset Go complexity mapping as a plexmarked Mark-In notation - Then apply cascading social tipping point theory to invite each project to a form a global coherent, bottom-up commons-based movement for rapid whole system change - Currently, there are a lot of jigsaw puzzle pieces to put together! - I think this video served as a reminder of the urgency emerged of our situation and it emerged adjacencies and associations between recent ideas I've been annotating, specifically: - Yanis Varoufakis - Need to end the US-led cold war with China due to US felt threat of losing their US dollar reserve currency status - that Trump wants to escalate to the next stage with major tariffs - MIchel Bauwens - Cosmolocal organization as an alternative to current governance systems - Roger Hallam - love-based strategy intervention for mitigating fascism, polarization and the climate crisis - Otto Scharmer - Emerging a third option to democracy - small islands of coherency can unite nonlinearly to have a significant impact - Climate Clock - a visual means to show how much time we have left - It is noteworthy that: - Yanis Varoufakis and Roger Hallam are both articulating a higher Common Human Denominator - creating a drive to come together rather than separate - which requires looking past the differences and into the fundamental similarities that make us human - the Common Human Denominators (CHD) - In both of their respective articles, Yanis Varoufakis and Otto Scharmer both recognize the facade of the two party system - in the backend, it's only ruled by one party - the oligarchs, the party of the elites (see references below) - Once Indyweb is ready, and SRG complexity mapping and sense-making tool applied within Indyweb, we will already be curating all the most current information from all the fragmented projects together in one place regardless of whether any projects wants to use the Indyweb or not - The most current information from each project is already converged, associated and updated here - This makes it a valuable resource for them because it expands the reach of each and every project
to - climate clock - https://hyp.is/R_kJHKGQEe28r-doGn-djg/climateclock.world/ - love-based intervention to address fascism, populism and polarization - Roger Hallam - https://hyp.is/wUDpaKsAEe-DM9fteMUtzw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiKWCHAcS7E - ending the US / China cold war - Yanis Varoufakis - https://hyp.is/Yy0juqmrEe-ERhtaafWWHw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao - Cosmolocal coordination of the commons as an alternative to current governance and a leverage point to unite fragmented communities - Michel Bauwens - https://hyp.is/AvtJYqitEe-f_EtI6TJRVg/4thgenerationcivilization.substack.com/p/a-global-history-of-societal-regulation - A third option for democracy - Uniting small islands of coherency in a time of chaos - Otto Scharmer - https://hyp.is/JlLzuKusEe-xkG-YfcRoyg/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b - One party system - oligarchs - Yanis Varoufakis - https://hyp.is/CVXzAKnWEe-PBBcP5GE8TA/www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao - What's missing is a third option (in the two party system) - Otto Scharmer - https://hyp.is/M3S6VKuxEe-pG-Myu6VW1A/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b
for - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - interventions - love and listening strategy for climate crisis - Roger Hallam - Trump winning US election - is an opportunity - Roger Hallam - perspectival knowing - Deep Humanity - mini assemblies - Roger Hallam - listening - fascism - social intervention - from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov - on horizontal and vertical decision-making
Summary - Roger Hallam advocates for a new strategy for the rise of fascism, populism, polarization and the climate crisis - love - He believes that we need a new social strategy based on love, on reaching out to the other side with compassion and listening to them - He cites numerous research studies that show that this can be transformative, for instance, citing pyschologist Carl Rogers - SRG complexity mapping tool, Deep Humanity and Indyweb could be synergistic to this program because both depend on: - diversity and - perspectival knowing
from - Illuminem article - Proximity: The antidote to fascism - Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorkskov on horizontal and vertical decision-making - https://hyp.is/0Tv_Rqr3Ee-_-X8fKkCfpg/illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/proximity-the-antidote-to-fascism - Medium article - An Emerging Third Option: Reclaiming Democracy from Dark Money & Dark Tech Seven Observations On 2024 and What’s Next - Otto Scharmer - cutting across political lines / https://hyp.is/exS8dKtNEe-pfz-IhQFiZA/medium.com/presencing-institute-blog/an-emerging-third-option-reclaiming-democracy-from-dark-money-dark-tech-3886bcd0469b
as with any social group that is a power law curve meaning for instance eighty percent of Trump supporters will change their view if they're listened to consistently maybe 19% are going to be resistant and need a good few conversations for them to at least have doubts and 1% are frankly psychopathic and they're never gonna change
for - stats - Perato's law - social transformation - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - climate communication - 80% will change if we listen, 19% will require deeper conversations - 1% will not change - Roger Hallam
I'll stick my head out here and say that we are 80% certain of being able to create a mass movement 10 times the size of Extinction Rebellion using this method organizations that can compete with fascism with power by dissolving that power through the same mechanisms Rogers discovered through listening
for - fascism, polarization and climate crisis - climate communications - social intervention - new movement that can be 10x the size of Extinction Rebellion - apply Carl Rogers discovery of listening - Roger Hallam
cuts across old political lines
for - to - a proposal for a love-based intervention for addressing the emergence of fascism, populism, polarization and the climate crisis - Roger Hallam
to - a proposal for a love-based intervention for addressing the emergence of fascism, populism, polarization and the climate crisis - Roger Hallam - https://hyp.is/wUDpaKsAEe-DM9fteMUtzw/www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiKWCHAcS7E
there is no longer a proper set of institutions that can restore the equilibrium in the new global world order: the Nation is no longer able to force the State to regulate the Market.
for - quote - the Nation (state) is no longer able to force the State to regulate the Market - Michel Bauwens - climate crisis - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - example - COP conferences and climate change
for the first time in history, transnational capital could significantly escape the regulation of the nation-states, rendering the latter inoperative
for - quote - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - Michel Bauwens - climate crisis - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - example - COP conferences and climate change quote - transnational capitalism escapes the regulation of nation states - Michel Bauwens (see below) - The nation-state equilibrium started to be disrupted in the 1980s. - Neoliberalism is in fact, also a failed attempt at global regulation. - Several events, such as - the conservative counter-revolution of Thatcher and Reagan, - the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989-91, and - the failure of the first attempt at democratic coordination of the economy in Chile (Cybersyn), - contributed to the emergence of a new world order in which, for the first time in history, - transnational capital could significantly escape the regulation of the nation-states, rendering the latter inoperative. - This was of course done consciously and with the collaboration of neoliberal nation-states.
comment - This is why climate change agreements at the nation-state level, such as COP conferences, are such dismal failures - Trump was bought out by billionaires who wanted to maintain their status quo money-making-machines - In this sense, this is conservatism at work - Economic, fossil-fuel incumbents teamed up with Christian fundamentalists to make a last valiant attempt at preserving the old order - Unfortunately, if they succeed, it will definitely accelerate their demise as well as the entire biosphere
Natural resources (like fossil fuels), are treated as expendable income, when in fact they should be treated as capital, since they are not renewable, and thus subject to eventual depletion.
to compel people to change their emissions, it may be less about a number, and more about a feeling. “To get people to act, my hypothesis is, you need to reach them not just by convincing them to be good citizens and saying it’s good for the world to keep below 1.5 degrees, but showing how they individually will be impacted,” says Eltahir
for - quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project
quote - climate crisis - behavioral change - system change - importance of showing impacts - example - climate departure project - Eltahir - To get people to act, my hypothesis is, you need to reach them - not just by convincing them to be good citizens and saying it’s good for the world to keep below 1.5 degrees, but - showing how they individually will be impacted,”
for - Food for Climate League - food - climate change - climate crisis - food system
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_forest_inequity
urban forest inequity
Mentions of humans thinning trees for better tree canopy in the section on black ash trees in Braiding Sweetgrass by Robin Wall Kimmerer.
Map of Year of Climate Departure for World Cities
for - climate crisis - map of climate departure - world cities
I went gleaning for fruit to try and reduce my carbon footprint. Was it enough? by [[Caitlin Hernández]]
we've learned the hard way, actually, over the past 50 years, that we don't solve sustainability problems by only raising awareness. It's not enough. Yeah. You also need some some, some top down influence on what I call keystone actors to get key players in the economy or, key decision makers to move.
for - climate crisis - raising awareness alone - is not enough - need to also influence top down keystone actors
climate crisis - raising awareness alone - is not enough - need to also influence top down keystone actors - This is only part of the story, the other part is developing a coherent, unified, bottom up movement - While statistics show a majority of people of must countries now take climate change seriously, it's not translating into TIMELY and APPROPRIATE ACTION and BEHAVIOUR CHANGE - The common person is still captured by the pathological economic system - (S)he still prioritised increasingly more precarious survival over all other concerns, including environmental - Ths is because most survival activity is still intimately tied to ecological degradation - The common person is not sufficiently educated about the threat level. - And even if they were, there does not yet exist any process to unify these collective concerns to trigger the appropriate leverage point of bottom up collective action
we are at an urgency point. I mean, we know we need to cut global emissions by half within the next five years, by 2030, and we're not near to that.
for - stats - climate crisis intervention - urgency - reduce emissions by 50% in 5 years!
the biodiversity and the intact forest systems in particular that are buffering this.
for - climate crisis - biodiversity responsible for buffering 30% of emissions
for - Cities 1.5 podcast - guests - Xuemei Bai - earth system boundaries downscaled to cities - cross-scale translation of earth system boundaries
per Espen Stokes is the author of what we think about when we try not to think about global warming
for - book - What we think about when we try not to think about global warming - author - Per Espen Stokes - climate crisis - psychology of - Per Espen Stokes
for - climate change psychology - video - youtube - Al Jazeera - All Hall the Planet - Why our brains are wired to ignore the climate crisis - Per Espen Stokes - interview
summary - A good introduction to climate change psychology - Per Espen Stokes is interviewed and he discusses his 5 Ds
this propaganda plays on psychological structure and if you're able to fish into that you're able to exploit those irrational Tendencies
for - climate crisis propaganda - human psychology used to exploit irrational tendencies of people to delay climate action
the people who has the power need to act faster
for - climate crisis - who has the power? - poverty mentality - leverage points - social tipping points - climate crisis - feelings of helplessness
climate crisis - who has the power? - There is still this assumption that policy-makers are the ones who have the power - There isn't yet a recognition of whether there is power within individuals sufficient to make a real difference. - Trying and failing, we grow weary of believing that we do have power to collectively effect the scale of change required - Unless we demonstrate leverage points within individuals that can lead to effective scale of collective action, we cannot jumpstart an effective movement - poverty mentality can keep us stuck
for - climate crisis - psychology - wrong approach
summary - Climate scientist professor Mojib Latif explores why our best efforts at rapid intervention to deal with the climate crisis are failing - Near the end of the program, he interviews professor Henning Beck, a neuroscientist who suggests that human brains have evolved to be rewarded for securing more. - Dopamine is released when we get more and we have not designed our intervention strategies aligned with this basic property of our brains
The UN and its many parts and agencies – from UNICEF to the Universal Postal Union – answer not to humanity nor the world, but the nations that united to join it.
for - climate crisis - key insight - why UN cannot address the climate crisis
climate crisis - key insight - why UN cannot address the climate crisis - The UN responds to sovereign states, not to humanity nor to the planet
the information about how bad things have been has not been meaningfully connected to the levers of power there just isn't there's this you know there's been no connection between those two worlds at all um they've sort 00:55:06 of been operating in parallel
for - climate crisis - disconnect between - levers of power - and information of what is happening
climate crisis - disconnect between - levers of power - and information of what is happening - there is an abundance of scientific information available to political leaders, yet - they are failing to make the necessary decisions - why?
Global industrialized world is doing today on the planet is that it's just so far out of equilibrium and so beyond um the Al operation of the 00:50:27 carbon cycle that it's just completely it's impossible that it will that it will persist um very far into the future
for - climate crisis - reflections - perspectives - human vs deep time
adjacency - between - climate crisis - different perspectives - human vs - deep time - adjacency relationship - Our global industrialized world is perturbing the carbon cycle so far out of equilibrium that the status quo civilization cannot persist very far into the future<br /> - the earth system has been through many such perturbations and it ALWAYS self corrects - Even the most extreme climate events earth has ever experienced are called transient because they are still relatively short in geological time - In the long term, the planet will restore equilibrium no matter how much extreme the perturbations human civilization creates in the next few centuries - In the long term, the earth is going to be fine - Homo sapien is just one of millions of species, most of which have gone extinct - We should NOT feel we are exceptional - We are comparing different timescales: - human lifetimes are measured in a hundred years - earth system time scales are measured in millions of years - even if there were another mass extinction event, on a geological time scale of tens of million years a new biosphere will regenerate and the ocean chemistry will be restored - Here we have an interesting intersectionality of different timescales. - paleontologists provide a deep time perspective - while we humans live in a timescale of no greater than 100 years - our bodies cannot directly sense change in deep time - therefore, any scientific information about deep time will need to go through our cognitive system - Our body is not evolutionarily designed to biologically respond to information on a deep-time timescale - It may be beneficial to help us see from a deep-time perspective to appreciate the geological-scale changes we are responsible for
I keep the possibility that um things will look different in the next few decades that I vasate between optimism and pessimism because there's there's plenty of reasons for the latter 00:40:37 but I'm I'm trying to hold space for the the former
for - climate crisis - we are in a pivotal moment
there was a paper that came out a few years ago showing that five degrees at the pace we're doing would be 00:40:13 is like easily sufficient to reproduce some of these catastrophes in Earth history
for - climate crisis - 5 deg C could reproduce similar levels of catastrophes as those in early earth history
Die Crisis Advisory Group begründet in einer Studie zu Carbon Credits, dass diese nur für die Entfernung von CO2 aus der Atmosphäre vergeben werden sollten, nicht für die Vermeidung von Emissionen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/26/voluntary-carbon-market-offsetting-industry-reforms-cccg-climate-crisis-advisory-group-aoe
These two examples allude to a larger story — which is that a global convergence of change processes is driving us into an unavoidable culmination of planetary collapse.
indeed 😬
the most impactful individual climate actions based on who YOU are
for - climate crisis - individual actions - Project Drawdown
THE ADMINISTRATION ALSO HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET ABOUT THAT FACT. THEY ARE NOT EAGER TO TELL THAT. THEY ARE VERY WORRIED THAT ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS
for - oil industry lobby - adjacency - wicked problem - climate crisis - fossil fuel lobby - 2024 US elections - citizen power
adjacency - between - wicked problem - climate crisis - energy industry lobby - 2024 US elections - adjacency relationship - US fossil fuel companies are making record profits under the Biden administration - The Biden administration is not bragging about this because it will hurt their re-election efforts with young people - The government is still under the power of the fossil fuel lobby - Michael Mann states that Trump 2024 win would spell disaster for the earth's climate system - It is clear however that this is a situation of the lesser of two evils - The Fossil fuel lobby has still hamstrung the Biden administration's efforts, introducing dangerous delay - The majority of citizens face the challenge that they are kept in precarity to the existing system - so are afraid to rock the boat - This is a wicked problem - A Biden 2024 win is a necessary but NOT a sufficient condition for avoiding planetary tipping points - What is needed is true citizen power, direct citizen action, not just voting
for - climate crisis - voting - citizen action
James Gien Wong The environmental voter project is a brilliant initiative encouraging already registered voters to get out and vote
for - voting - climate crisis - citizen action - Environmental Voter Project
to - Environmental Voter Project - voter action on climate crisis - https://hyp.is/AXsq4g47Ee-GbAc3PtbGuA/www.outrageandoptimism.org/episodes/moments-of-truth
for - climate crisis - consumption
for - Extinction Rebellion - Vancouver - Extinction Rebellion - change of strategy - climate crisis - protests - Extinction Rebellion - moving away from public disruption - Unify Regional Extinction Rebellion
potential collaboration - opportunity - partnership - there is an opportunity to collaborate with them - as they enter this new phase of their work
Here's the column Meta doesn't want you to see by [[Marisa Kabas]]
repost with comment of:<br /> When Facebook fails, local media matters even more for our planet’s future By [[Dave Kendall]]
Katherine Hayhoe, author of “Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World,” serves as Chief Scientist for the Nature Conservancy and is a distinguished professor at Texas Tech. You might expect that she would be considered a legitimate authority on the subject. p span[style*="font-size"] { line-height: 1.6; } But in the Meta-verse, where it seems virtually impossible to connect with a human being associated with the administration of the platform, rules are rules, and it appears they would prefer to suppress anything that might prove problematic for them. p span[style*="font-size"] { line-height: 1.6; } Hayhoe expressed her personal frustration in a recent post on Facebook. p span[style*="font-size"] { line-height: 1.6; } “Since August 2018, Facebook has limited the visibility of my page,” she writes, “labelling it as ‘political’ because I talk about climate change and clean energy. This change drastically reduced my post views from hundreds to just tens, and the page’s growth has been stagnant ever since.” p span[style*="font-size"] { line-height: 1.6; } The implications of such policies for our democracy are alarming. Why should corporate entities be able to dictate what type of speech or content is acceptable?
With permission from the Kansas Reflector, I’m sharing the column verbatim here in an attempt to sidestep Meta’s censorship. I hope you’ll share it far and wide—and I really hope Meta doesn’t block this version.
Meta (Facebook) blocked not only the site, but the particular article, so Maria Kabas posted a copy to her site.
https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/kansas-reflector-meta-facebook-column-censored
for - adjacency - liberalism - ubiquity - invisibility - polycrisis - climate change - climate crisis - book - Liberalism and the Challenge of Climate Change
summary - This is an insightful interview with Dr. Christopher Shaw as he discusses his book, Liberalism and the Challenge of Climate Change.
adjacency - between - liberalism - ubiquity - invisibility - polycrisis - metaphor - fish in water, fish in the ocean - adjacency statement - Above all, this book points out that - liberalism is an idea that is - so ubiquitous and j - which everyone without exception is profoundly steeped within that, - like fish in water, a medium that is everywhere, the medium becomes invisible. - At the heart of - modernity's culture wars and - political polarization, - there is a kind of false dichotomy between - liberals and - conservatives, - as both are steeped in the worldview of liberalism - From the Stop Reset Go perspective, - Dr. Shaw's thesis aligns with - the Stop Reset Go Deep Humanity open source praxis, - whose essence is precisely to facilitate helping individuals to understand the powerful connection between - ubiquity and - invisibility. - via Common Human Denominators (CHD)
for - liberal blind spot - Chris Yates - book - liberalism and the challenge of climate change - adjacency - liberalism - individual liberty - progress - bond spot - political polarization - fuel for the right -hyperobjects
Summary - This short article contains some key insights that point to the right climate communication strategy to target and win over the working class - Currently, climate communications speak to elitist values and is having the opposite effect - The working class farmer protests spreading across the EU is a symptom of this miscommunication strategy - as is the increasing support and ascendency of right wing political parties - Researcher and author Chris Yates is in a unique position with one foot in each world - He articulates his insightful ideas and points is in the right direction to communicate in a way that reaches the working class
comment - the figure 4 graph is an example of carbon inequality
Example - carbon inequality - see figure 4
My belief is that societies cannot organize effectively to cope with the impacts of climate change without a shared understanding of the future that awaits.
quote - shared futures - climate crisis and appropriate language - (quote below)
it reveals that it’s those immediate experiences of the environment rather than global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that affect people’s ideas about climate.
insight - hyperobjects
Comment - This of why a Deep Humanity approach that identifies and clarifies the fundamental issues is so important
If acting on climate change means sacrificing what little freedom I have left, then what value is that to me?
key insight - of all about the venison of individual liberty that modernization had sold is a companion bill of goods on
for - climate crisis - agricultural protest
Dubbed “litigation terrorism” by Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist. ISDS is a corporate tribunal system
for - litigation terrorism - ISDS - corporate tribunal system - Michael Levin - multi-scale competency architecture - example - adjacency - evolutionary biology - corporate law - climate crisis
adjacency - between - corporate law - climate crisis - evolutionary biology - cultural evolution - adjacency statement - Biologist Michael Levin's multi-scale competency architecture of evolutionary biology seems to apply here - in the field of corporate law - Corporations can be viewed as one level of a social superorganism in a cultural evolution process - Governments can be viewed similiarly, but at a higher level - The ISDS is being weaponized by the same corporations destroying the global environment to combat the enactment of government laws that pose a threat to their livelihood - Hence, the ISDS has been reconfigured to protect the destroyers of the environment so that they can avoid dealing with their unacceptable externalizations - The individual existing at the lower level of the multi-scale competency architecture(the corporation) is battling to survive against the wishes of the higher level individual (the government) in the same multi-scale competency architecture
for - Inflation Reduction Act - bolstering to reach NDC
suggestion - can we arrange an online debate between James Hansen and Michael Mann?
for - climate crisis - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate communication - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - climate change - 2023 U.S. poll - demographics - U.S. Hispanic / Latinos - 2023 - high concern about climate crisis - U. S. African American - 2023 - high concern about climate change - U.S. Gen Z - 2023 - high concern about climate change
for - climate crisis - 2023 U.S. poll - climate communication - 2023 U.S. poll
for - 2024 U.S. elections - polycrisis - 2024 U.S. elections - existential threat to civilization- climate crisis
summary - Some good points: - importance of Black and Latino voters - importance of a third party that can spoil the vote
“A second Trump term is game over for the climate — really!”
for - quote - Michael Mann - quote - a Second Trump presidency - polycrisis - politics and climate crisis - climate mitigation strategy - voting in 2024 U.S. election - adjacency - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Gen Z voting
adjacency - between - Michael Mann - 2nd Trump presidency - exceeding planetary boundaries - exceeding 1.5 Deg C - Trump's presidency is existential threat to humanity - Gen Z voting - 2024 election - adjacency statement - Michael Mann's quote " A second Trump term is game over for the climate - really" applies to the 2024 election if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. - Trumps dismal environmental record in his 2016 to 2020 term speaks for itself. He would do something similiar in 2025 if he were the president. G - Given there are only 5 years and 172 days before we hit the dangerous threshold of burning through all the carbon budget for humanity, - https://climateclock.world/ - It is questionable whether Biden's government alone can do enough, but certainly if Trump won the 2024 election, his term in office would create a regression severe enough to put the Paris Climate goal of staying within 1.5 Deg C out of reach, and risk triggering major planetary tipping points - A Biden government is evidence-based and believes in anthropogenic climate change and is already taking measures to mitigate it. A Trump government is not evidence-based and is supported by incumbent fossil fuel industry so does not have the interest of the U.S. population nor all of humanity at heart. - Hence, the 2024 U.S. election can really determine the fate of humanity. - Gen Z can play a critical role for humanity by voting against a government that would, in leading climate scientists Michael Mann's words, be game over for a stable climate, and therefore put humanity and unimaginable risk. - Gen Z can swing the vote to a government willing to deal with the climate crisis over one in climate denial so voting activists need to be alerted to this and create the right messaging to reach Gen Z - https://hyp.is/LOud7sBBEe6S0D8itLHw1A/circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024
climate change performance index
for - resource - climate change performance index - how well a city is adapted to the climate crisis
for - climate crisis - U.S. intra-country migration - key insight - climate migration - towards disaster zones
for - climate crisis - food production impacts - stats - high emissions scenario -food production
stats - high emissions scenario - over 30% of food crop production and animal production impacted - mostly around equator
to - https://www.wired.com/story/the-foods-the-world-will-lose-to-climate-change/ for - climate crisis - food production impact
for - nature-based carbon sequestration - reestablish whale populations - Nate Hagen - The Great Simplification - David King - climate crisis - solutions - progress trap - overfishing - whales
for: - climate crisis - local approach, bottom up approach - cosmolocal - climate crisis
for: health, David Sinclair, longevity tips, adjacency - lifestyle choices - diet - climate crisis - biodiversity crisis
SUMMARY
adjacency between
for: James Hansen - 2023 paper, key insight - James Hansen, leverage point - emergence of new 3rd political party, leverage point - youth in politics, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics
Key insight: James Hansen
reference
Washington is a swamp it we throw out one party the other one comes in they take money from special interests and we don't have a government that's serving the interests 01:25:09 of the public that's what I think we have to fix and I don't see how we do that unless we have a party that takes no money from special interests
for: key insight- polycrisis - climate crisis - political crisis, climate crisis - requires a new political party, money in politics, climate crisis - fossil fuel lobbyists, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics, James Hansen - key insight - political action - 3rd party
key insight
question
next year we we'll know whether your your your numbers are right in your pipeline paper around May of next year 01:46:30 and then it's going to be a very warm year it's going to be a lot of Destruction then we need we need to see how far the temperature Falls with the elino with the linia that follows but I 01:46:42 I expect it's not going to fall as much as you would otherwise have expected because of the large planetary energy balance there's more energy coming in than going out so it's hard for the 01:46:55 linia to cool it off as much as it used to
I think that we should be putting a high priority on developing the Next Generation nuclear 01:45:54 power uh but it's uh it's uh it's going to be a a tough job and as long as the as the special 01:46:05 interests are controlling our government uh we're not going to solve it
for: climate crisis - next generation nuclear - alternative to, question - James Hansen - knowledge of deep geothermal power
climate crisis: next generation nucliear - alternative
we have to do it um and but to to get a third party we 01:26:28 do need to work on this ranked voting so that we're the third party is not a spoiler that ends up electing the worst candidate we have that Oakland here live in ber you know work in Berkeley but 01:26:41 nearby Oakland has it and some places are starting to do it but I don't think it's really caught on
I think that what we have to 01:23:24 do is have the revolution that Benjamin Franklin said we need if because if we don't solve the problem in the United States I don't see us solving the global 01:23:39 problem
for: quote - James Hansen, quote Benjamin Franklin, climate crisis - leverage point - political revolution
quote
date: Dec 2023
comment
I 01:22:57 think now what is more important is to affect the political system
climate crisis - leverage points - young people - politics
comment
for: climate crisis - multiple dimensions, polycrisis - multiple dimensions, climate crisis - good references, polycrisis - good references, polycrisis - comprehensive map, power to the people, climate change - politics, climate crisis - politics
comment / summary
epiphany
for: James Hansen, paper - Global Warming in the Pipeline, prediction - May 2024, find - May 2024 prediction, suggestion - debate - James Hansen - Michael Mann, climate crisis - politics, climate change - politics
Summary
reference
Many of the neighbourhood organisations were able to support and initiate new projects and busi-nesses
for: question - climate crisis - local solutions - scalability
question
Lack of community is a key driver of why the system is so broken
for: climate crisis - role of community
comment
Not sure how "communities" are going to shut down oil refineries as big as large cities in some cases.
for: question - can communities have real impact?
question: can communities have real impact?
for: climate crisis - debate - community action, climate crisis - discussion - community action, indyweb - curation example
discussion: effectiveness of community action to address climate crisis
we need to build this this again this bridge and it's obviously not going to be written in the 00:50:41 same style or standard as your kind of deep academic papers if you think this is uh U unnecessary or irrelevant then you end up with is a scientific 00:50:56 Community which talks only to itself in language that nobody else understands and you live the general Republic uh uh prey to a lot of very 00:51:09 unscientific conspiracy theories and mythologies and theories about the world
for: academic communication to the public - importance, elites - two types, key insight - elites, key insight - science communication
comment
key insight
references
Almost by definition this would significantly alleviate poverty, as society’s resources will need to move from furnishing the relative luxuries of people like me (along with Elon Musk and Bill Gates) and be mobilised to decarbonise every facet of society. And all this in two decades tops
for: climate crisis - resource flow, carbon budget - resource flow, carbon budget - resource redistribution
comment
Fast international travel will, at least temporarily, have to be for urgent or emergency purposes only. A triage approach is needed to ensure that the reallocation of society’s small carbon budget, its labour and resources, are used wisely to provide for a thriving society.
for: climate crisis - air travel, climate crisis - triage approach, climate communications - SRG suggestion - energy diet
comment
This 1% of humanity uses its awesome power to manipulate societal aspirations and the narratives around climate change. These extend from well-funded advertising to pseudo-technical solutions, from the financialisation of carbon emissions (and increasingly, nature) to labelling extreme any meaningful narrative that questions inequality and power.
for: quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - elite positive feedback carbon inequality loop, climate crisis - societal aspirations, elites - societal aspirations, societal aspirations, key insight - societal aspirations
quote
comment
for: climate crisis - elites, Kevin Anderson - elites, carbon emissions - elites, adjacency - elites - carbon inequality - incentives - luxury - capitalism
title: A Habitable Earth Can No Longer Afford The Rich – And That Could Mean Me And You
date: Nov. 29, 2023
comment
we're getting a taste of that in the pandemic yes you adopt a wartime or emergency mindset that helps to liberate a kind of level 00:15:22 of collective purpose it makes new things possible
for: polycrisis wartime mobilization, climate crisis wartime mobilization, 2024 extreme weather - wartime mobilization opportunity
key insight
adjacency statement
The rapid response to the COVID pandemic was a real life case of a wartime scale mobilization in a very short time. This shows that it is possible. We need to see if we can strive for this for climate change. If 2024 becomes the year of extreme weather due to El Nino, then we could use it as an opportunity for a wartime mobilization
one good thing about the COVID pandemic is that it did show that a rapid wartime mobilization is possible, because it did kind of happened during COVID
i commissioned some original polling for my book from abacus research and i found some very hopeful stuff and you know the public gets the emergency and incidentally i've tried to recast 00:12:46 some of the the extreme weather events we've experienced as attacks on our soil let's think about them that way yeah um and they're ready for bold action actually the public is ahead of our politics in terms of that i was surprised to see 00:12:58 that you even mentioned in alberta the numbers are much higher than you so you mentioned quebec before so the the opinion polling nationally ranges from a high in quebec in terms of their readiness fraction right to a low in alberta but even in alberta 00:13:12 the level of support is remarkably high
for climate change - wartime mobilization, interview - Seth Klein - A Good War, polycrisis - conflict, climate crisis - conflict, Naomi Klein - brother
summary
for: Kevin Anderson, transition, climate equity, climate justice, climate justice - Kevin Anderson, carbon inequality - Kevin Anderson, life within planetary boundaries, lifestyle within planetary boundaries - elites, climate crisis - Kevin Anderson
summary
for: fossil fuel phase out, fossil fuel phase down, COP28 controversy, Sultan Al Jaber controversy, fossil fuel demand phase out, Nafeez Ahmed - phase out fossil fuel demand, carbon colonialism, colonialism - climate crisis
title: A Message to White Environmentalists: Demanding a Fossil Fuel Phase Out is Not Enough
Exciting new report from Project Drawdown shows how changing your bank might be one of the most effective hashtag#climate solution levers we can pull.
to: [Fast Company article on bank emissions] (https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fastcompany.com%2F90996425%2Fhow-to-break-up-with-your-bank&group=world)
for:climate crisis - solutions - banking
from:[ Linked In Jonathan Foley Post] (https://hyp.is/TMzeTpnkEe6gsIcc_dt8hg/www.linkedin.com/posts/jonathan-foley-182808b9_how-to-break-up-with-your-bank-activity-7140431002400677888--kqs/)
for: climate crisis - voting for global political green candidates, podcast - Planet Critical, interview - Planet Critical - James Schneider - communications officer - Progressive International, green democratic revolution, climate crisis - elite control off mainstream media
podcast: Planet Critical
title: Overthrowing the Ruling Class: The Green Democratic Revolution
summary
we're on the highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator and he completely right 00:33:33 apart from one thing right
for: climate crisis - analogy
climate crisis - analogy
they have the power to hinder progress towards stopping the climate crisis, especially with their control of mainstream media.
Conclusion: Supporting our hypotheses, we identify a general trend that social marginalization is associated with less system-justification. Those benefitting from the status quo (e.g., healthier, wealthier, less lonely) were more likely to hold system-justifying beliefs. However, some groups who are disadvantaged within the existing system reported higher system-justification—suggesting that system oppression may be a key moderator of the effect of social position on system justification.
for: system justification theory, status quo bias, question - lack of commensurate action
summary
Question
Malm, Andreas. How to Blow Up a Pipeline. Verso Books, 2021. https://www.versobooks.com/products/2649-how-to-blow-up-a-pipeline.
Aram Zucker-Scharff indicated that this was one of his favorite books on the climate crisis and has interesting consequences for both individual and group action. He said it might make an interesting pairing with Palo Alto (@Malcolm2023).
It came up as we were talking about the ideas of climate crisis in the overlap of The Monkey Wrench Gang.
Might also be interesting with respect to @Hoffer2002 [1951].
Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican pollster, disavowed work Thursday in the early 2000s to cast doubt on the science behind climate change and said America, on the whole, wants the federal government to “do more, right now, to address it.” “I was wrong in 2001,” Luntz told an ad-hoc Senate Democratic climate panel. “I don’t want credit. I don’t want blame. Just stop using something that I wrote 18 years ago because it’s not accurate today.”
Of course, one ought to be cognizant of the fact that he knew (or should have known) he was patently wrong then too.
His statements as quoted here allow him to gloss over the fact that a lot of the blame rests at his own feet.
Adragna, Anthony. “Luntz: ‘I Was Wrong’ on Climate Change.” POLITICO, August 21, 2019. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/21/frank-luntz-wrong-climate-change-1470653.
Potentially interesting with respect to @Linsky2023
https://context.center/topics/climate-change/#explainers
Explore What We Collectively Know About the Causes of, the Risks From, and the Solutions to Global Heating (Climate Change)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
The increased efficiency in the use of a resource doesn't imply a decrease in the usage of that resource, but rather may cause in incommensurate increase in use because of decrease in cost.
The increased efficiency of the use of a resource may act as a catalyst for increasing usage.
Barry Commoner's The Closing Circle,something more is required. This is particularly true of a booklike Commoner's, on a subject-the environmental crisis-ofspecial interest and importance to all of us today. The writingis compact and requires constant attention. But the book as awhole has implications that the careful reader will not miss.Although it is not a practical work, in the sense describedabove in Chapter 13, its theoretical conclusions have importantconsequences. The mere mention of the book's subject matter-the environmental crisis-suggests this. The environment inquestion is our own; if it is undergoing a crisis of some sort,then it inevitably follows, even if the author had not said sothough in fact he has-that we are also involved in the crisis.The thing to do in a crisis is ( usually ) to act in a certain way,or to stop acting in a certain way. Thus Commoner's book,though essentially theoretical, has a significance that goes beyond the theoretical and into the realm of the practical
Interesting to see this take up some space as an example from 1972.
Our choice to fail over the last 30 years has brought us to this position. And a way out of that, a way out of the Marshall Plan, is to say we can have these negative emissions 00:34:42 I think we need to say that, okay that's one way out of it – if they work. Another way out of it is the Marshall Plan. And so we need to open that that dialogue up. but we've... in effect, I think the IAMs have closed that dialogue,. Which is one of the reasons, going back to... It would be interesting to see other parts of the world looking at this, because, I would have a guess, when we say 'that's not feasible', many people elsewhere in the world are saying 'well of course it's feasible, we've been doing... we've been living like that for years!'
for: quote, quote - Kevin Anderson, quote - Kevin Anderson - Marshall plan, discussion - Johan Rockstrom / Kevin Anderson, perspectival knowing
quote
comment
At best, we will see new forms of collaboration among large numbers of people toward beneficial ends. The most obvious example is the changing nature of responses to largescale natural disasters. Perhaps we will see this spirit of volunteer and entrepreneurial cooperation emerge to address such pressing issues as climate change (e.g., maybe, the Green New Deal will be crowdsourced)
While the proximate mechanisms of these anthropogenic changes are well studied (e.g., climate change, biodiversity loss, population growth), the evolutionary causality of these anthropogenic changes have been largely ignored.
if you're very poor then you're living in some kind of Wilderness Area you're going to destroy the environment in order to survive let me take for 00:08:05 example Gumby Street National Park in 1960 it was part of the Great Forest built by the late 1980s was a tiny Islander forest and all the hills around were bare more people living there in 00:08:19 the land could support two poor to buy food elsewhere struggling to survive cutting down the trees to make money from charcoal or Timber or to make more land grow more food and that's when it 00:08:33 hit me if we don't help these people these local communities find ways of living without destroying the environment we can't save chimpanzees forests or anything else so we need to 00:08:46 alleviate poverty
one of the reasons 00:34:46 why we don't do it is that we think there needs to also be a sudden huge change inside but actually there doesn't need to be a sudden age change inside at all
Das Natonale Klima-Anpassungsprogramm, das die britische Regierung in der vergangenen Woche vorgelegt hat, ist nicht nur unzureichend, sondern es ignoriert die Folgen der globalen Erhitzung. Themen wie Kühlung der Innenstädte, Umbau von Gebäuden oder Waldaufbau zum Gewässerschutz werden nicht angegangen. Bill McGuire, emeritierter Professor für Klimafolgen in London, kritisiert die Ignoranz der britischen Regierung im Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/20/government-plan-britain-extreme-heat-society-economy
Ultimately, I’m reminded of the umbrella organisation Stop Climate Chaos that formed in 2005. By 2009, all that its diverse membership could agree on (and this after much negotiation) was a march called the Wave which happened in December to coincide with the UN climate summit in Copenhagen. The numbers on that march? In the same ballpark as the Big One: about 50,000 people. And after the Wave there was only a trickle, for many years.
What happened to these and why? my guess is that it was hard to breakthrough to the broader public on a complex long-term topic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Skeptical_Environmentalist
tangentially mentioned in the Dan Allosso Book Club 2023-04-29
Title: How Alive Is 1.5? Part One – A Small Budget, Shrinking Fast
Author: - Kevin Anderson - Dan Calverley
Key Messages - For a 50:50 chance of staying below 1.5°C, we’re using up the remaining carbon budget at around 1% every month. - Following current national emissions pledges (NDCs) to 2030 puts the temperature commitments within the Paris Agreement beyond reach. - Claims that 1.5°C is now inevitable also assign “well below 2°C” to the scrapheap. - An ‘outside chance’ of not exceeding 1.5°C remains viable, but ongoing fossil fuel use is rapidly undermining it. - The few credible pathways for an outside chance of 1.5°C are not being discussed. This is an active choice by policymakers and experts, who have largely dismissed equity-based social change.
Splooting, or more technically heat dumping, is a process through which animals stretch their hind legs back and lie on cooler surfaces to reduce their body heat. It’s commonly done by squirrels and sometimes, by dogs, and it’s no reason for concern, it’s just a sign that the animal is hot and trying to cool off.
https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/animals-ecology/why-animals-are-splooting-to-deal-with-the-heat/
Peter Kalmus, Data Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory: [Update 23 August 2019: This comment was updated for clarity.] What science projects under plausible scenarios of human courses of action is varying degrees of further disruption of fundamental planetary life support systems (e.g. water, agriculture, ecosystems) needed to support the nearly 8 billion humans currently living on Earth. This disruption poses some degree of existential risk to civilization as we know it—with the amount of risk likely still depending on how rapidly we reduce radiative and ecological forcings—but these degrees of risk are not quantified with any certainty. Ice models have had difficulty projecting the melting rate of the Greenland ice sheet; predicting the mechanism of the collapse of civilization and the number of lives lost as a result is a far more complex problem, and there is no scientific consensus that six billion lives will be lost. On the other hand, models have tended to underestimate ice sheet melting, and model projections in general have been systematically “conservative.” I unfortunately don’t see how the possibility of six billion deaths can be ruled out with confidence, especially when the intrinsically unpredictable but real possibility of climate-related war (which could include nuclear weapons) is considered. In other words, Hallam’s claim is speculative, but given the depth and rapidity of anthropogenic change, so is confidently ruling it out. While I don’t agree that “science predicts” the death of six billion people, in my opinion Hallam’s broader warning has qualitative merit and in the context of a lay translation of risk his use of “six billion” might reasonably be interpreted as figurative, an illustration of a worst-case scenario (again, that I don’t think can be ruled out). Whether to interpret this claim literally or figuratively is a question perhaps best left to humanists. Given this ambiguity I judge it “unrateable.”
He is basically saying this is plausible. And his is the most sensible answer here by far IMO.
The whole point of "bad case" scenarios is that they involve feedback effects and breakdown of "civilization" as we know it.
This article as a whole is an illustration of the narrow, conventional thinking.
NB: i came here via https://passivehouseaccelerator.com/articles/building-our-solarpunk-future where they are citing this as evidence future won't be too bad:
For many of us, it’s all too easy to imagine the terrible, particularly as we witness the damage caused by just 1.2°C of global heating today. We’re also bombarded by Doomist messages.
For example, Roger Hallam, the co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, recently said this of climate change: “I am talking about the slaughter, death, and starvation of 6 billion people this century. That’s what the science predicts.”
Only that’s not what the science predicts. According to the fact-checker website, Climate Feedback: “Research shows that continuing climate change results in a broad array of serious threats to humans and other species. However, counter to Hallam’s statement, published studies have not predicted 6 billion human deaths this century and there is no credible mechanism referred to justify how this could happen.”
Leaving aside those far-right doubts about the existence of a climateproblem, any government that wanted to cut carbon emissions substantiallycould not avoid implementing much tougher emissions regulations andhigher business taxes. But any government that did so in advance of othergovernments would only force its corporations to move production andthousands of jobs elsewhere.
!- example : DGC - also, Yellow jackets in France and working class in Sri Lanka paralyzed their respective country due to rising fuel costs - the precariat class is threatened and are also caught in the wicked problem
"Respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried). More than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty. More than 45% of respondents said their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning, and many reported a high number of negative thoughts about climate change (eg, 75% said that they think the future is frightening and 83% said that they think people have failed to take care of the planet).
!- for : Social Tipping Points - Tipping Point Festival - Meaning crisis